I could put up a post every day about some new evidence of Biden’s befuddlement
But why bother? His state has been obvious since way before the 2020 election, and it’s even more evident now.
But if I neglect the stories, it seems like I’m ignoring them entirely. So I’ll just link to a couple of posts at other blogs that discuss some of the recent examples: see this and this.
As I’ve said before, I think Biden has been losing it for some time, but I also think he was always vacant, unintelligent, self-serving, and mendacious. I think he’s being highly influenced by other people, but he’s not so far gone that he doesn’t have at least some input, and not so far gone that he doesn’t have some very basic understanding of what’s happening. But he’s extremely far from being sharp-minded.
I find it astounding that half of the nation either doesn’t seem to know or doesn’t seem to care much if at all. I understand that they are being led to this by the intensely hypocritical MSM and Democratic Party, but it still leaves me gobsmacked. But if they really have come to believe (as they’ve been told) that Republicans and Trump are tyrannically demonic, they would probably find the present state of affairs more acceptable.
Were it a matter of a Republican president’s inarticulate mumbling and almost total inability to string together two coherent sentences, would this fact not be fodder for every mediocre leftist comedian and every untalented writer on SNL? Would not such a person’s consistent lies about open borders and inflation, not to mention any hysterical and hyperbolic maundering about a wholly imaginary threat (in Biden’s case, “white supremacy”), expose him to merciless ridicule? Would not the egregious corruption of his family (especially of, but not limited to, his son, the “artistic” wastrel) be relentlessly investigated by journalists searching for a scoop? Our “credentialed” elites have, without question, been corrupted beyond the point of redemption or repair.
j e:
Yes.
Definitely agree j e
Still think it works to the Deep Swamp’s favor having to real head of state to take orders from.
And no Democrats Propaganda Ministry is ever going to say a word until given the green light he is to go.
I don’t go looking for trouble, or at least not this kind of trouble, so I haven’t had or overheard any lib/left/prog discussion on the subject.
But it strikes me that if there were much in the way of those folks having an interest in the issue, I’d have run into it one way or another.
Of the folks I know and with whom I might bring it up, I’d expect blank looks followed by “at least he’s not Trump”.
Simply not worth discussing with these folks. Those of you who have, professionally or otherwise, dealt with the mentally ill know how powerful is rationalization. If logic is in play, the premises switch by 180 as necessary.
It is odd to find the same thing in people who are not mentally ill. Or…..
The pets trust that their minders have someone with a brain behind the throne who is implementing their rainbow unicorn agenda and not at all looking the other way/actively participating while American citizens of every age, race, and sex are murdered, raped, extorted, defrauded, burgled, unpersonned, penalized, outcast and otherwise cruelly exploited for the political and personal gain of politicians, their cronies, and their foreign financiers.
“But if they really have come to believe (as they’ve been told) that Republicans and Trump are tyrannically demonic, they would probably find the present state of affairs more acceptable.”
The media and info-tech whores who’ve been telling everyone that Trump was the Putin-worshiping, perennially pusillanimous Devil (along with his Deplorable Minions) are the same ones that are telling everyone that “Biden” is doing just fine, even excellent—on top of every serious issue (which it goes without saying is well thought out and carefully analyzed) and well regarded at home and abroad—and that America is in very good and capable hands….
Yep, America is back alright (if one’s a blithering idiot)…
Jokers wild.
We are closing in on the point where Biden will be at some public affair, a speech-making event, ‘town-hall’ or whatever….and halfway through will go completely off the rails. Just mumbles and shuffles off. Or worse yet, start talking at random. You can create your own scenario.
At that point, what will the press do? Suddenly have “network difficulties” and switch off? Go to a talking head for reassuring words? Will Jill materialize from off-stage, grab his arm, and lead him off as she did at the G-7 event?
And the aide with the “Presidential Emergency Satchel” — suddenly gulps with a look of panic?
We are heading into territory that is totally foreign to the American people. And once we get there, it’s no turning back. G*d help us all.
Last year, the unfailingly clever and wonderful Babylon Bee ran a story entitled “Biden Hires Interpreter To Translate his Speeches Into English” and just now posted “Joe Biden Buys All of Hunter’s Artwork In Hopes of Meeting the President”. It cannot be denied that, on average, conservatives are more rational than “progressives”, as well as wittier and more amusing.
J e Better looking, too.
Babylon Bee’s take on Joe’s CNN appearance is worth a look too:
https://babylonbee.com/news/cnn-airs-hour-long-public-service-message-on-dementia
It is now clear to me that Trump was a dire threat to all that the Deep State, the left (mostly the same)and the globalist corporations hold dear and are trying to accomplish. Trillions are at stake. What Joe represents to the globalists, is a figurehead they can control. Rank and file Democrats were told, and believed, that Trump was a tyrant that was going to do bad things to blacks, immigrants of all ethnicities, LGBT folks, Jews, and other popular liberal causes. All lies, but they bought them hook line and sinker. Now, with Joe, they feel safe , even if he is a doddering demented figurehead. It’s amazing. My liberal relatives are barely watching the news theses days, because they are sure things are going well now that Trump is gone.
Laura Ingraham has a segment every night where she shows Joe gaffing his way through some speech, presser, or town hall. It’s horrifying to me. We can only hope that the central committee that’s directing things doesn’t succeed in destroying our military, economy, sovereignty, solvency, etc.
The country is basically doomed because at least half of our legal citizenry does not know anything, nor does it wish to know. And we are being overrun by mestizos who non comprehende Ingles.
“But if they really have come to believe (as they’ve been told) that Republicans and Trump are tyrannically demonic, they would probably find the present state of affairs more acceptable.” neo
They ‘believe’ what they want to ‘believe’. Revealed as ‘want’ by their willful blindness* to anything and everything that calls into doubt their assumptions.
* O’Bloody Hell’s “midnight liberal reset button”
That degree of closed mindedness is motivated by moral cowardice. Their refusal to face the truth of what they’re enabling is driven by the suppressed intuition that enabling societal madness confers complicity upon them.
That part of the nation that doesn’t know is, at this point guilty of criminal negligence. As the changes being wrought by the left and championed by the democrats and media are too blatantly radical to be invisible.
That part of the nation that doesn’t care much, if at all of what the left is implementing have forfeited their right to self-detrmination.
As you cannot claim a right of citizenship, when you are indifferent to the denial of that right of citizenship to another.
Secure borders, free speech on public forums, elections conducted honestly, the right to the means for self-defense, a speedy trial, the right to confront an accuser, equality under the rule of law… are rights conferred to all American citizens.
Indifference and silence in the face of consistent denial of those rights to those with whom they disagree by private and government organizations is support for tyranny.
By definition, support for tyranny obviates self-determination.
They are foolishly giving away their birthright. Far worse, they are destroying their children’s and future generation’s liberty.
They are enabling the fashioning of the chains of American’s future enslavement. Which will bring a new dark age of far greater cruelty than the last, one that will crush men’s souls.
We all have feet of clay. We all have our ‘cross’ to bear.Yet as Americans we all have a moral obligation to speak out against tyranny in all its forms.
No wonder so few get into heaven. They condemn themselves to that separation from the divine that is ‘hell’. Not because God is a god of wrath but because he cannot associate with the self-deceit that lies at the heart of a willful blindness that refuses to admit error. Which is the prerequisite to repentance and redemption.
I believe the ‘off the rails’ that will clinch it for most will be a fit of anger, over nothing, that gets physical. At some point this will happen, publicly, on camera. The media of course will pile-on whoever the target is to try and justify Joe’s outburst.
Geoffrey
As to getting into heaven: Is there a break given to those whose self-deceit, as a method of self-defense, is unconscious?
The worse Biden gets and does, the worse Trump will have to be predicted to be and be recalled as even worse in retrospect in order for the excuse, “at least he’s not Trump”
And the mush heads will believe it and themselves.
I find the discussions hereabouts on the subject of the leaders of the lib/dem/prog movement enlightening as well as infuriating.
But, as I say, without the unconditional support of tens of millions of mush heads, the movement would be getting no place.
It’s one thing to contemplate a person doing this sort of thing with eyes open for illicit gain of some kind. It’s another to see a presumably normal person insisting two plus two equals five, unlike last week when it was God’s honest truth that the answer was seven. And that Trump is a racist, and honestly believing the “very fine people” no matter the number of times it’s been explained to them.
geoffb,
That would do it. With Harris waiting backstage in the wings.
Perhaps the worst factor is that reluctant acceptance of Biden’s ‘senility’ won’t, in and of itself, change one vote.
Just as so many of California’s fleeing liberals continue to support the same policies that led to their flight.
Today’s ‘progressivism’ is a societal/cultural cancer.
Richard Aubrey,
We cannot be held responsible for that which we are unaware. That’s why I stress “willful” blindness. It’s not that they don’t see, it’s that they will not allow themselves to see.
“None are so blind as they who will not see”.
I do not pretend to know as does God. But I do recognize when ego simply will not acknowledge error exposed through fact based logic and reason. I trust God will judge truly and perhaps, forgive my foolishness.
In the meantime, I will speak out against what I perceive to be tyranny and welcome debate by those who disagree with what I see as tyranny. Let truth, viewed through reason, prevail.
‘He has a speech impediment! If you suggest anything else, you are ableist!’
Of late, I haven’t heard this pathetic riposte from my liberal friends (which are 90+% of my friends). They’ve likely abandoned it for being too absurd. And, it doesn’t matter much. They don’t care even if he does have dementia and they no longer see any need to rationalize.
@Cicero:
Meester… When you find yourself atop a pyramidal pile of stones having your heart cut out by a dude in feathers, you’ll shed a tear for the good old days when it was just Mestizos and Mariachis 😀
If you ever come across a rational (I know) Progressive, here’s a resource. Retired newsman Don Surber wrote 3 books on Trump. They cover 3 time periods: Repub primaries, general election and in office.
Each documents the lies presented by MSM.
The other book in this vein is the one by Mollie Hemingway and one other author on the Kavanaugh Confirmation. Perfect description of outright MSM lies which can be independently researched and confirmed
Ackler (8:02 pm) writes, paraphrasing others of the left-leaning persuasion: ‘He has a speech impediment! If you suggest anything else, you are ableist!’
Have a look at older videos of Biden (i.e., when Biden was younger). (You tube is a good resource.) Go back, maybe, to Biden grilling Robert Bork in 1987. Any impediment? Go back to 2020, to Biden “debating” Trump. Any impediment? Go to virtually any Biden video in between.
Any impediment?
It’s just another useful lie that they spread. And they actually believe it.
Just another example of their non-stop gaslighting. It is what they *do*.
Ackler continues, “They’ve likely abandoned it for being too absurd.”
Nothing is too absurd for these people. In my rarely humble opinion, they’ve likely abandoned it for being no longer useful.
Ackler concludes, “it doesn’t matter much. They don’t care even if he does have dementia and they no longer see any need to rationalize.”
Yep.
Biden is not losing it. He never had it. He was always an errand boy and an empty suit. Nothing changed except Teddy Kennedy died and Barack Obama got termed out.
M J R:
Yes and no.
Biden actually has a documented history of stuttering. At least, he has a long-documented history of claiming to have stuttered as a child and overcome it. So I don’t think it’s a lie that he was a stutterer, although by the time he came to public office I don’t think it affected him much anymore if at all.
Here’s a clip from 1994 in which Biden talks about stuttering as a child. It seems convincing to me. But he’s not claiming to still stutter. The other interesting thing about the clip, as with so many clips of Biden from long ago, is how clearly it points out the changes in his demeanor and ability to collect his thoughts between then and now. It’s sad to watch it for that reason.
The lie is that what’s going on with him at this point has anything to do with stuttering.
Walter Sobchak:
Watch clips of him from 20 years ago and compare to today, and the changes are clear.
M J R:
I agree, for the most part. Biden has been a prominent figure for a far longer period of time than any previous president. There are scores (probably hundreds) of hours of readily available footage of him from the mid 70s to the present day. The ‘speech impediment’, while referenced at least as early as the early 90s, never seemed to be significant, until, magically, the last couple years. Very curious.
May I suggest that the speech impediment defense is no longer useful to the left, because it is so absurd? I agree, they have little shame. But, when something they’re proffering or arguing becomes utterly ridiculous, AND when they know they can’t bully or frighten people into accepting it (such as CRT), then they will (mostly) drop it. It’s too absurd and no longer useful.
Bill Walton is said to have overcome stuttering as a kid. Apparently the way to do it is to never, ever stop talking.
Maybe it’s the same with Biden, and now that he actually stops talking at times, his “speech impediment” returns.
Yeah, I don’t believe it either.
neo writes, “At least, he has a long-documented history of claiming to have stuttered as a child and overcome it.”
Happily noted. I can accept that as a friendly amendment to my motion. (And good on him for overcoming.) But for his supporters to use stuttering as emotional leverage now — and I personally was on the receiving end of a left-leaner doing that with me less than a year ago — I will not accept, happily or otherwise. And I think you’re with me on this.
Ackler (9:15 pm) writes, “May I suggest that the speech impediment defense is no longer useful to the left, because it is so absurd? I agree, they have little shame.”
Another friendly amendment: A *because* B. Works for me!
Remember all those comparisons of Trump speaking in the 1980s vs now? Those same people seem to have lost interest in that line of questioning.
Biden’s 2021 commencement speeches are one measure of his declining ability as a public speaker. Presidents are usually asked by more institutions than they can accommodate to address the school’s graduating class. Biden’s commencement speech at the Coast Guard Academy in May was by all accounts a disaster: details at
https://nypost.com/2021/05/19/biden-chides-dull-coast-guard-grads-in-wild-speech/
Then Biden delivered a commencement speech– for no particular institution– from the White House during the first week of June. “. . . this one was directed at no class in particular. It was the first generic, one-size-fits-all commencement speech ever delivered by a U.S. president. [italics mine] Judging from the quality of the content and grace with which it was delivered, it is unlikely to provide a model for future occupants of the Oval Office. The speech, which lasted only 2 minutes and 46 seconds, was too long.”
Gluttons for self-punishment can listen to the entire “commencement” speech at the link below, and those who wish can hazard their guesses as to who actually wrote the wretched thing. I personally doubt that it was “Doctor” Jill, as some of the material is above her pay grade, but who knows.
https://libertyunyielding.com/2021/06/07/biden-delivers-a-commencement-speech-to-everyone-and-no-one/
I chalk it up to the same sort of textbook mass hysteria that gripped the world about Trump. And that was before the China Virus. It was mass hysteria then; it’s mass delusion now. I’m not prone to exaggeration or hyperbole, and I’m well within that self-limitation here. We’ve had our fair share of bad presidents and politicians, but never so obvious a puppet.
It’s a sign of a society so full of rot as to be beyond salvage. I don’t say that from a place of despair, but of simple realism. That Biden is above water in approval ratings is the only data point necessary.
That Biden is above water in approval ratings is the only data point necessary.
See the recent articles on how wretchedly pollsters performed in 2020.
Biden’s dementia and mendacity aside, the most significant fact coming out of the Townhall was the attendance: 200 to 300 people at a college campus.
If it had been Trump, there would have been 30,000 plus people in attendance. You would need the campus football stadium.
It is not possible to believe that Biden won the 2020 election.
I think most people just don’t want to have to worry about what the President is doing. There’s no fear that Biden is going to say something crazy that starts a war or go into Twitter edge lord mode. That’s probably enough for most people to just ignore Biden and get on with their lives. As long as his handlers and the media (but I repeat myself) have things under control, why do ordinary people need to worry?
Just to be clear, that’s not what I think, but after four years of Trump, I suspect that is what a lot of people think. It probably also matters that most adults under the age of 50 don’t remember Biden the sharp-tongued partisan from the 80’s and 90’s. They remember “Grandpa Joe” from the Obama years. The current iteration of Biden is jarring if you remember him in his (relative) youth – probably not as much, though, if your first political memory of him was when he absent-mindedly dropped the f-bomb on national television in 2010.
Don Lemon failed in his ventriloquistic duties while attempting to coax comprehensible utterances from his unintelligible dummy.
“…don’t have to worry about what the President is doing…”
Especially since it’s all cheers from the media, right?
IOW, no CRT—sorry, make that CRT double-plus NOT ungood. No deluge of illegals entering the country. No January 6 political prisoners. No antifa. No BLM. No indoctrination and weakening of the military. No galloping inflation. No lying about COVID. No systematic law-breaking by the DOJ. No deals with hi-tech to censor information and spy on Americans. No, none of that, heaven forfend…
“…but after four years of Trump, ”
Well OK, but shouldn’t that really be: “…but after four years of relentless Democratic Party and Corrupt Media lies and, smears, slanders and false accusations; larded with non-stop demonization and character assassination of Trump…”
(Let’s try to be a wee bit more accurate as long as we’re at it, why don’t we….)
Neo, it is a case of classic cognitive dissonance. I even work with a woman (formerly a registered Republican) who changed to Democrat because she was put off by Trump’s boorishness, who told me that Biden is “cute” in a way that you would refer to a young child rather than a senior citizen.
“…pollsters performed …”
Your point is precisely correct.
They lied then.
They’re lying now.
Regarding “performed”, I don’t believe they “performed” in the sense of performing “professionally” or “according to the tenets of their profession”.
They reported what they WERE TOLD TO report. By whom? Head scratcher, that!
(And if anyone thinks they’re doing any “soul searching” now because of their piss-poor “performance” I have a bridge to sell ya…but it does make for good optics, which is the primary consideration of this wretched, monstrous, prevaricating regime.)
“Cute” is the word, alright…. (as in “sub-cutaneous”?)
Anyway, I think we can all agree that what we don’t know can’t actually hurt us…
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/07/23/this-biden-proposal-could-make-the-us-a-digital-dictatorship.aspx
Andrea Widburg has prudent advice: “Don’t focus on Biden’s dementia; focus on his substantive statements”:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/07/dont_focus_on_bidens_dementia_focus_on_his_substantive_statements.html
Barry Meislin – You seem to have missed the part where I noted that I wasn’t relating what I think, just what I believe most normies think. I think there’s plenty to worry about. You can’t deny, though, that for your average non-political person, it’s a lot easier to tune out now than it was when Trump was president.
You’re not wrong that Trump was on the receiving phone end of unprecedented lies and smears. He made plenty of trouble for himself, though. No one made him tweet crazy stuff. No one made him regularly mangle the English language. No one prevented him from dealing with Democrats’ election machinations beforehand instead of doing so after it was too late and making a bigger mess. He did all of that himself. Sixty percent of the allegations against Trump were lies and dirty tricks. The problem is that the other forty percent were dead on.
Regardless, of whether the circus around Trump was justified, unless something big and bad punctures the awareness of many non-political Americans, I fear that they’ll vote for whatever is left of Biden in 2024 rather than voting to go back to Trumpian chaos.
I really hope Trump is smart enough to figure that out and not run in 2024.
his substantive statements are mostly bonkers, all the ‘concerned’ who focused endlessly on koi and ice cream scoops, who chased that russian squirrel, but are silent now that we are giving away the store to putin, colonel bearclaw, where are you now that no offensive weapons are being sold to ukraine,
this is why they stole the election, the methods used are rather immaterial, the results are the proof,
Bauxite:
I disagree. It is my observation that about 95% of the negative stuff that was written about Trump was false and about 5% true, and the latter was mostly either quite minor or amounted to braggadocio and some nastiness.
I also believe – and I wrote this post about it – that Trump’s braggadocio and pugnacious were absolutely necessary for him to do what he did that was good. He would not have won the 2016 election otherwise, for example, nor would he have survived his presidency without that pugnaciousness. It is also my observation that the left would have tried to destroy any Republican “nice guy” who ran in 2016. Look at the lies they spread to try to destroy “nice guy” Romney, who was also a political moderate.
If I could have designed a Trump I would have left intact all his good traits and eliminated the bad ones, but that’s not the way personalities ordinarily work.
Plus, I have written about what the GOP and the Trump forces tried to do to combat the voting changes prior to the election. They did fight in court. Please read this post and also this post and you will see how the decks were stacked against them.
I happen to agree that it would be best if Trump didn’t run in 2024. I think DeSantis would make a good candidate. But other than that, I disagree strongly with most of what you wrote.
DeSantis/Noem 2024.
Sure, some pollsters performed dreadfully in their predictions of election outcomes. Not all. Discount pollsters at your own risk. Not saying they’re the gold standard of gauging public opinion, but their data is useful.
You can look across the spectrum of reliable pollsters and see that even the most unfavorable toward Biden show him above water. Hell, take off 10% and you’ve still got a disturbing amount of the country that is totally fine with, or totally unaware of a puppet sitting in the Oval Office.
I agree with neo and disagree with Bauxite. I did not like Trump’s personality and could not watch his speeches. When he ran I thought it was a brick through the window of the Establishment but nothing more. Then he started to perform and I cannot think of a policy of his that I disagree with. I think he was far too much engaged with the daily briefings about Covid, which may turn out to be the first successful bio-war attack. His big problem was not of his making,. We now have an Establishment that runs the country for their own purposes. That is called A Principal Agent Problem.
“they would probably find the present state of affairs more acceptable.”
We’re only six months in. The present state is still largely coasting by on what Trump did and the ginormous amount of money poured into the system during the pandemic. After being whipped into hysteria for four years, most non-Trumpers can look around and think “Everything’s fine.”
But there is ZERO chance we can avoid a disaster, or a series of them, when the White House is filled with various people who all claim various levels of power with virtually no accountability. It’s like having a parliamentary system when all the members of parliament are anonymous.
Just look at “Biden” policy toward Russia. I don’t think anyone understands why these decisions are being made because no one really knows who is actually making them.
Mike
neo – It’s funny that we disagree so much on details but reach the same conclusion, i.e., that Trump shouldn’t run in 2024 and that DeSantis is looking like a good prospect. I may be overly optimistic, but DeSantis is starting to look like a combination of Trump’s needed combativeness with actual competence.
Also, I’ll defend the Electoral College to the bitter end, but the simple reality is that defeating the modern left is going to require a majority coalition. I think it’s possible to assemble such a coalition, but Trump will never do it, and the hour is late. We can tell people to ignore the mean tweets and bizzare behavior until we’re blue in the face, but those things matter to a lot of folks. We can’t afford to give away their votes. The stakes are too high.
I was a cruz supporter, at least past the primaries, for some personality reasons an policy ones, but when faced with the red queen, there wasn’t really a choice not to vote for him. the gop establishment will always be the foe, they were so against reagan, that’s why the 11th commandment was issued, trump was an imperfect vehicle,
Bauxite:
Your Orange Man Bad is showing again, the little clue in this opinion being “actual competence.”
We must win the folks who are superficial, ignorant, and accepting of 1) a Cloth Headed Dummy, 2) CRT, 3) BLM, 4) speech police, 5) LGBTQWERTY dammit! 7) Fauci fraud, and 8) 1/6/2021 being worse than Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the Spanish Inquisition? Well those voters are brain dead and the dead voting was a problem in 2020. But they voted often, so there is strength in numbers I suppose. So if you can figure out how to convince a brain dead voter you have a fabulous career in the GOPextinct ahead of you.
om – You’ve got me. I do think the orange man was bad. I also think that a competent candidate without Trump’s self-imposed baggage could have beaten Biden last year even given everything that happened.
FWIW, I don’t think the issue is any of the eight categories of folks you reference. They are the left, for the most part. They’re not winnable. However, there are a lot of people who aren’t on the left but are just exhausted by Trump’s drama. They’re not brain dead. They just want to live their lives without dealing with politics on a daily basis.
“However, there are a lot of people who aren’t on the left but are just exhausted by Trump’s drama. They’re not brain dead.”
They are pretty stupid if they think the problem was Trump and not the media/political establishment.
Mike
Bauxite:
Some commenters use the term “willfully blind,” regarding what happened with the how the 2020 election was manipulated, who could have beaten that process?
I know proving a negative is a bit of a hurdle, but consider that the election results were cooked, a bit. Do you remember the Time magazine confession? Just a thought to consider.
And who would have replaced DJT, the OMB, as the Republican candidate in 2020? After the Hildabeast lost in 2016, complaining about DJT being the Republican candidate in 2020 is a bit lame.
Bauxite-If you think the political drama was Trump’s fault, just wait until Desantis, or for that matter any Republican of substance, runs in 2024.
The non-stop crap is provided by the press. They turn it off for Dems.
There goes Taiwan
@Dodger:
Not during the current typhoon season. But days numbered.
Sooner rather than later is a good time to be replacing ratty old laptops, smartphones, and tablets.
Boatbuilder:
Oh, there’s plenty of nonstop crap from the MSM for Democrats. It’s just of a different flavor – nonstop fake admiration rather than attacks.
Dgr: Do you think the Chicoms can protect their dams? That is their weak point and the Taiwanese know it – their strategy is to take them out at the first sign of an invasion. Maybe the Chicoms are willing to sacrifice the dams and the people that will drown. It’s an interesting stand off. My guess is that the Chicoms will continue to be belligerent, but continue to try to ,meddle in Taiwan’s politics. They hope it will eventually fall into their hands without a shot fired. It’s a hundred year marathon.
@JJ:
It’s rather a long way to the Three Gorges. There are plenty of other dams, too, admittedly. But getting to them and lobbing some ordnance might be a bit of a job. The Chinese do have modern air defences, you know. Lots of them. The US could certainly take out the dams, but that costs LA or San Diego. Probably San Diego. LA is a net pox on the USA so why do a favour and obliterate it?
The sane thing is to wait and let economics and demographics and spread of GloboHomo Poz weaken Taiwan further — all the usual NGOs, Foundations, other Usual Suspects are to be found beavering away in Taipei… not to mention further American Decline. Eventually one would hope Taiwan would negotiate the best possible deal (won’t be very good and will get shafted anyway but beats having a year of death and misery due to destroyed critical infrastructure)
But if it comes to big picture calculus of whoever is ruling China having to take Taiwan immediately in order to head off domestic political challenge or instability, then all bets are off. For that reason alone should be thankful that Xi Jinping took out Bo Xilai (ex mayor of Chongqing) at the beginning of his reign — could have ended up with a Stalin – Kirov type popularity contest and Taiwan would have been the Football.
Anyway I’m not optimistic for TW’s chances. Lot of wishful thinking here about China’s demographic challenges and other all too real problems.. but Taiwan has whole bunch of internal contradictions and issues of its own — and remember that the biggest boosters of Plucky Little Taiwan Home of Gay Marriage and Freedom are wishful thinking Purveyors of the Poz. Blood and Iron beats Poz and Happy Feels every time.
Final point re the dams and infrastructure in China. You’re expecting Taiwanese billionaires to acquiesce in their government destroying their Mainland factories.
And I’m serious about keeping your tech stuff up to date — assuming you need these things.
Any kind of even limited conflict and you can kiss goodbye to new iPhones and Laptops for a year or three. Don’t expect the Invisible Hand to just wave itself and make new fabs and factories and logistics chains appear.
To my surprise this year, Taiwan is safe because of Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company. This IC foundary is the industry leader with up to 92% share. And it has been growing at over 17% annually since 1994.
Why such strength? Technology leading etching of the fastest microchips using the smallest wavelengths of UV down to 3 nanometers, creating the fastest such electronic devices.
“Most of the leading fabless semiconductor companies such as AMD, Apple, ARM, Broadcom, Marvell, MediaTek, Nvidia, and Qualcomm are customers of TSMC.” (Wikipedia)
And therefore Red China depends on TSMC in order to grow it’s export market.
But if that ends, which invasion of Taiwan would do, then China’s export power ends.
Until erosion within Taiwan succeeds, hi tech gives the little giant a defensive edge against enormous China.
Can’t survive without a new cell phone or tablet. Otay, Can Do! Can Do! the military strategist too. Who knew,
@TJ:
TSMC is more reason to go take the place. You don’t need the Fabs…. Although nice to have. You need the PEOPLE who know the secret sauce recipes make TSMC’s fabs have profitable yields down at 3-4nm…. All the equipment goes into the Fabs you can buy on the open market. Make them an offer they can’t refuse, and Bob’s your Uncle in 2-3 years — price well worth paying.
I’ve been thinking that the smart thing to do in the event of war would be to relocate and / or kill the key guys at TSMC who know the recipes and then level their 4nm Fabs.
Do you seriously think Pozzed USA (hello Intel which has majorly $#%^ed the PC Pooch and missed the boat on 4nm) will recover first if TSMC can’t produce for a year or three? In your dreams.
So the calculus is still iffy. Put the hurt on Taiwan and take some temporary pain and Win Bigly maybe. Or maybe not. Smart move is not to do it… but geopolitics rarely involves people doing the smart thing… often the needful thing or the insane thing.
TSMC is the most critical strategic asset in the world in 2021… I’ve been harping on about that from time to time here in comments anddd… crickets.
Interestingly just read an article in Asia Times (David Goldman / Spengler’s property) suggesting that first thing would happen in an escalation would be that TW Straight would be mined from the air by B52s. Makes sense.
FWIW much of the world can get by on 20nm and up legacy process chips. Any clown with a few billion and a Fab and no Diversity Hires can excrete these like a sausage factory. But the supercomputing, high end cellphones, graphics chips, deep learning type stuff — sure… you want be down at 4nm yesterday to be in with a chance.
Zaphod, surface to surface missiles is the weapon of choice. Maybe China has built a missile defense to cope. I dunno. I’ve been to Taiwan. Their military has always been prepping for the INVASION. They have been as serious as a heart attack about defending themselves. Thus far they have succeeded in being threatening enough to forestall that day. I agree that the Taiwanese billionaires have a lot at stake on the mainland. In fact, the Taiwanese have been a force in helping China develop. The two are economically entwinned. We’ll see.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel beat USA to having sub-5nm Fabs online. Israel Intel subsidiary had to wipe Intel’s ass when they #$^&ed up in early 2000s in the then processor GHz wars. And looks like it might be heavily involved in saving the bacon again in the current Intel Debacle cleanup. Tel Aviv might be full of gays and leftist weirdos, but there’s plenty of hard-headed genius level engineers and process people there — and they don’t let Indian Nepotists take over their tech industry.. Plus the military / intelligence benefits are much clearer to all of them. US-based Managerialist Bugmen CEOs don’t get to hear air raid sirens very often.
@JJ:
I guess they might reach the dams with missiles. Thing is they’ll need everything they’ve got for staging areas. China is big enough to absorb that kind of hit in the rear at 3 Gorges and just keep on trucking. Again… it’s 2021. They don’t always get through these days.. lots of stuff exists to interdict them. And if it’s missiles, Fujian Province is full of PLA missile artillery for obvious reasons.
I’ve vacationed there a lot. Tunnels everywhere. Necessary given the terrain… but still a lot of tunnels. Not just for transport and decoration, I guess :).
But good deal of this is CKS KMT Glory Days Infrastructure. One doesn’t get the feeling that there’s much of the whole Swiss National Redoubt vibe nowadays.
Do you recall last Taiwan Straits Crisis? China announced that it was going to lob a few surface to surface missiles into the sea offshore of the ports. And did so. You can guess what happens to vessel insurance policies when that happens. Everything stops. Lots of things China can do to mess with Taiwan without trying on the Normandy thing.
What really bothers me about Taiwan is the submarines. Look them up. I get that it’s difficult for them to source them given China’s aggro toward any vendors… but seriously to me this tells me they’re not totally serious about it.
How much oil does the CCP import in VLCCs Can Do? How much food does the CCP import by sea? F’ing with oceanic trade can cut more than one way. Naval mines may spoil the South China Sea for thee. Sad to have an empty rice bowl. Enjoy your chicken feet while you can?
Biden is being told that the way to win the next election is to force the Republicans to own the January 6th “insurrection”, by maximizing the disgusting conditions of imprisonments and penalties and publicly shaming the defendants, or even better to goad the conservative patriots into another more violent incident that could be laid at Trump’s doorstep. Thus, creating national division is the Democrats’ path to victory.
What he ISN’T being told, and may be too ice-cream besotted to realize, is that he has joined Democrats Wilson and Roosevelt in having committed heinous civil-rights offenses against his fellow Americans in order to gain political advantage.
The Democrat party must be destroyed before it destroys America.