Sweden had a lower excess death rate last year than most other countries in Europe
You may recall that Sweden never really locked down over COVID. Although certain precautions were recommended, life went on more normally than in most other countries. The official death count per million people there from COVID was lower than in many other European countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, Portugal, Belgium, Czechia, Spain, Italy, UK, and France, as well as the US. Sweden had more COVID deaths per million (at least, according to official statistics) than Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Greece, Norway, Finland, and Denmark.
So it’s pretty clear that Sweden came out fairly well in terms of comparative statistics within Europe. And now we learn that Sweden experienced lower overall mortality in 2020, too:
Preliminary data from EU statistics agency Eurostat compiled by Reuters showed Sweden had 7.7% more deaths in 2020 than its average for the preceding four years. Countries that opted for several periods of strict lockdowns, such as Spain and Belgium, had so-called excess mortality of 18.1% and 16.2% respectively.
Twenty-one of the 30 countries with available statistics had higher excess mortality than Sweden. However, Sweden did much worse than its Nordic neighbours, with Denmark registering just 1.5% excess mortality and Finland 1.0%. Norway had no excess mortality at all in 2020.
But neighboring countries don’t necessarily have similar statistics at all, which is one of the many things about COVID that we don’t quite understand. Should Sweden be compared to the rest of Europe, or to its extreme outlier neighbors such as Norway? What are the most important variables that contribute to these differences? Policies? Climate? Population habits or demographics? Chance? Method of reporting statistics? Treatment? None of the above? All of the above?
And yet our lack of knowledge doesn’t stop people from making sweeping generalizations. A little while ago I had a conversation in which a man I know declared that the US has “the worst COVID record of any country.” I called him on it, telling him that our death per million rate is exceeded by many countries. He said I was wrong, and then I recited statistics for him (I’d looked it up just a few days earlier).
Did those statistics change his mind? I’m virtually certain they did not. I don’t think he is the least bit unusual in that, either.
“ Did those statistics change his mind?.” If he is die hard, probably not. But it is the people who just have not been exposed to something alternative to the dominate leftist narrative that maybe, just maybe , start asking questions. Right now the media is all about trying to tie anti Asian bias to Trump. The same media that cried “ mostly peaceful” as Asian owned businesses were destroyed all summer by BLM. The people watching MSNBC apparently have no idea.
Predictably, I’m very interested in this.
I would be most interested in the “meta data” ( or metalogic, or simply, the psychological aspects) to copy an emerging trope with regard to this “argument”; or more properly, exchange.
What were the circumstances within which he uttered the assertion? Was the context naturally conducive to such a comparative remark, or leading in that particular direction?
Did it appear that he imagined he was imparting new information to you? Or did it seem he was establishing a framework upon which to hang other conclusions or implications instead?
Why do you think you were chosen to be the recipient of this information? You may have already answered this in passimg above.
Do you believe that he had anticipated its having a particular effect or that it would elicit a certain response he was seeking to provoke or probe for?
Regardless of what ultimate effect you expect your correction of his contentions to have, what was his overt response? Did he express any appreciation for your giving him something to consider or to confirm on his own? Did he give any indication that the if in confirming the truth of it, it would then affect his future declarations in any way?
Was he polite and friendly toward you personally? I.E., “Considerate of your opinion” as arbiters of healthy social mores used to say?
Now I don’t actually expect you to answer these questions one by one as a 13 year old catechist of some school of learning might do.
But I am extremely interested in the social dynamic or habit that has developed among ostensibly educated Americans, of simply shrugging at the older social conventions that went along with, and which kind of provided the nesting place for genuine exchanges of information.
However if the reign of Subjectivity and Sovereign Urge really have triumphed among a substantial portion of the populace, we could be in for one hell of a carnival.
“that the if in confirming the truth of it,”
Strike the first “the”.
DNW:
This guy doesn’t know me well and doesn’t know my politics. He was talking about how badly Trump had handled things and used this fact as an illustration. I’m about 98% sure he just expected me to agree – in one of those “joining” and virtue-signaling exercises. He was very surprised when I disagreed. I said something like “That’s not true,” and he responded that it was. He was very sure of himself. I asked him where he got his statistics, told him the site where I got mine, mentioned that I’d just checked it the night before, started listing countries with worse records than the US, and offered to give him a link so he could see for himself. I think he was stunned. I doubt very much he’d ever encountered a person who didn’t agree with him, or who was willing to say it, or who knew more about the official stats than he did. He absolutely didn’t expect it from me.
I don’t remember if there was any more exchange about it. I never sent him the link because I didn’t get the impression he wanted it. But he did kind of shut up about it.
The impact of ‘dry tinder’ on death rates and ‘pull ahead’ deaths going forward is a key factor to be followed. I read somewhere that Sweden had much different flu seasons than it’s neighbors Finland and Norway the previous couple of years which could explain differences in death rates.
Led on by the progressive media, people simply refuse to look at honest analysis about the virus.
Hypothesis: much of Norway and Finland is sparsely populated and the number of border crossings can be counted on one hand. Access is by water. Insular countries did well as they shut the valves off before the virus was established. Posit Sweden did not accomplish this in a timely fashion.
Did those statistics change his mind? I’m virtually certain they did not. I don’t think he is the least bit unusual in that, either.
Chesterton: you cannot reason a man out of a viewpoint he did not reason his way into. There’s very little reasoning going in foundational to liberal discourse.
Art,
I think some of Sweden’s deaths have been attributed to them allowing international travelers after other countries had cut them off. Don’t know if that is true or not but it’s a theory.
Really what Sweden has done is what every country should have done. Definitely after the first couple of weeks. They did limit large crowds gathering so it is not like they did nothing.
This entire discussion presumes the data reported by all these governments is both truthful and accurate.
“You have been listening to rumor mongers, Comrade. There is no typhus in our city”.
Chases Eagles,
Not just accurate but uses consistent methodology. Not just for COVID but comparing it to past flu seasons. How many Hong Kong Flu victims died in motorcycle accidents?
Chases Eagles:
That’s why I wrote, “at least, according to official statistics,” and also wrote, “Method of reporting statistics?” as one of my questions about the variables. I make no assumptions about the validity of the statistics. However, they’re what we have at the moment.
Two of my friends routinely assert that Florida’s response to COVID is an unmitigated disaster. When I politely tell them to look up the data at Florida’s COVID site and compare it to another state, say New York, or our own state, Colorado, they act as if that is a huge task. I have sent them the links to make it easy. They will make a statement such as “last week there were 30000 new cases in Florida”.
Yes indeed out of a population of 19.3 million and with the largest percentage of seniors in any state. And by the way what was the major age demographic of the 30000? Were these 30000 new hospitalizations or COVID positive tests. One day’s report or cumulative over several?
The whole thing has damaged our relationship. The unremitting bile expressed for all things Republican is bizarre, since they know our politics quite well. It used to be that you did not go out of your way to insult your friends. Oh well, th time they re a changing.
Statistics are Racist. Feelings and assertions are Good.
Does this mean that they’re going to crucify Art+Deco long before they get to me?
Asking for a Friend.
But seriously, apart from the cognitive dissonance issues with sheeple who have already made up their minds, I am starting to suspect that a great many of our supposed great and good really are so mathematically illiterate that they are incapable of reasoning with per capita or per million figures.
There are several articles about Texas and the mask mandate and how the results are contrary to the Sainted Fauci’s predictions. Here in Michigan cases are spiking because a virus is going to do what a virus does. Personally I think it is the weather as sunlight kills virus’s and people are outdoors and the vitamin D build up mitigates. Protect the vulnerable and practice practical safeguards like washing hands. Everything else is theater.
Sweden looked at COVID as a really bad flu and treated it accordingly. They rapidly built up herd immunity. That is the story pure and simple. We need to hammer this message home again and again.
Regarding the people who just don’t want to believe the facts I tell them that Twitter and Legacy Media don’t have a clue. The truth is outside of them.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2021/03/26/scientists-wonder-texass-cases-still-going-reopened-everything-ended-mask-mandate/
}}} Did those statistics change his mind? I’m virtually certain they did not. I don’t think he is the least bit unusual in that, either.
Some people are incapable of having rational discussions, and even questioning their “I know this” factors when faced with differing facts.
Strangely, that’s most common in the “Science!!” shouting crowd of PostModern Liberals, who only care about “science” when it can be used to support what they have chosen to believe anyway.
One of the totalitarians great goal is to tie you to the land. In Soviet controlled areas you needed internal passports to go from one region to another and now New York has come up with COVID passports. So from this they can slowly expand it’s scope such that people will not easily be able to leave but instead have to stay under their control. Example would be to sell a house it has to be COVID compliant whatever that means to the government making it so that you really can’t sell your home and move. This cries for a court challenge.
Of course the tech overlords or the nomenklatura will be exempt.
https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2021/03/27/official-vaccine-passports-required-new-york/
}}} Hypothesis: much of Norway and Finland is sparsely populated and the number of border crossings can be counted on one hand. Access is by water. Insular countries did well as they shut the valves off before the virus was established. Posit Sweden did not accomplish this in a timely fashion.
Largely irrelevant. If the nation didn’t stay totally locked down in the “concentration camp” style for the entirety of the last 12-15 months, they are going to be exposed to the virus. NO ONE has gone that extreme.
Whenever some bleeding heart progressive weeps for the children of the sun coming to America you hit them with this.
https://redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2021/03/27/if-only-jeffrey-epstein-had-lived-to-see-this-biden-admin-suspends-fbi-background-checks-for-caregivers-for-migrant-children-n351402
Now it is easier for these “kids” and young teenage girls to be sex trafficked. AND THEY VOTED FOR IT!!!! Ask them if it is okay to them because the girls are not white. Hit them right between the eyes rhetorically. I can hardly wait to see my BLM neighbor about this.
Sickening.
Art Deco at “Hypothesis…” is correct. Sweden is an outlier in Europe and even among her peers, other Scandinavian countries.
The areal nation is large, with low population density. The norm is two houses. It is therefore, easy to isolate the symptomatically ill (which is almost everyone with Covid). Plus, the two meter rule is closer than customary normative social distancing practices.
Thus, Neo asks “Should Sweden be compared to the rest of Europe [no], or to its extreme outlier neighbors such as Norway? [yes – Norway separated from Sweden about a century ago.] What are the most important variables that contribute to these differences? [Housing wealth, low density, Protestant distancing and uniquely excessive cultural social distancing.]”
In other words, an outlier from which one cannot generalise anything except that major social distancing hurdles prevent the easy transmission of a novel transmissible virus.
But everyone already knew this.
Neo at 4:29 “I think he was stunned. I doubt very much he’d ever encountered a person who didn’t agree with him, or who was willing to say it, or who knew more about the official stats than he did. He absolutely didn’t expect it from me.”
But … but … but Biden said that a woman can do anything as well as or better than a man can do it … so now you have gone and “validated” a Bidenism! 🙂
I am not sure that that was your intention, though.
Largely irrelevant. If the nation didn’t stay totally locked down in the “concentration camp” style for the entirety of the last 12-15 months, they are going to be exposed to the virus. NO ONE has gone that extreme.
A series of insular states have successfully contained the virus. Not an option open to most places.
Does not seem to any correlation betwixt the severity of lock-downs, or lack thereof, and the number of recorded deaths (per million population), either here in the USA or around the world.
There are no clear trends that any particular strategy produces better results than other strategies.
IMHO, a virus will do what it will do and it will “end” when it ends. This was true in the pandemics of 1918, 1958 and 1968.
The CDC has reported that “only” about 6% of covid deaths had no comorbidity’s.
I wonder if this was also true in the 1958 and 1968 pandemics.
WSJ hysterics about the “P.1” virus variant now allegedly re-infecting 61% [in Brazil] include “About 30% of people dying from Covid-19 are now under 60, compared with an average of about 26% during Brazil’s previous peak between June and August, according to official figures analyzed by The Wall Street Journal.”
That is of dubious statistical significance. “About 26%” vs “About 30%”? Averages?
I linked to the WSJ from Drudge though I do not subscribe.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-rages-in-brazil-posing-global-risk-11616845889
Headline reads”Covid-19 Variant Rages in Brazil, Posing Global Risk”
The whole COVID thing demonstrates a huge problem for modern American culture. I’m not sure how bad it is in Europe but the explosion of social media seems to have greatly increased the number of people who are ignorant of their own ignorance. There are people who consume media all day and think that makes them well-informed but not only are the information sources all from a limited perspective but I’m convinced that many people don’t actually read more than a few paragraphs or even a few sentences of any story.
Mike
I spent some time recently with a relation of the Orangemanbad orientation. Her church read White Fragility and decided that being a Trump voter meant you couldn’t be a Christian.
When faced with actual facts, her consistent response is “I don’t believe it.” She may think she’s making a factual statement about her beliefs. I think she’s actually saying “I don’t wish to believe it. So I won’t believe it.” And if you persist, she gets personal.
In addition, she seems to be of the persuasion that severe restrictions mean good results. That’s why Florida is ” a mess”, and she doesn’t–can’t afford to–believe the facts.
I suppose there have always been people like this but…..are there more now?
Reference my post 3/27/21 @ 9:18pm. It appears that the Biden mal-administration will attempt to make the COVID passport nationwide. This is the camel’s nose under the tent. It will never go away like the Patriot Act and it will slowly expand to other areas. Soon “social credit” like China’s system will be a factor. Facebook and Google helped set it up. Also the Deep State is working on this. Just watch for it.
It has to be fought tooth and nail. Let every elected representative know they must oppose it or there will be negative consequences for it
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-administration-working-on-covid-19-passports-to-enable-american-travel
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2021/03/28/senators-on-armed-services-committee-promote-expansion-of-nsa-domestic-data-gathering-and-surveillance-nsa-response-the-fourth-amendment-is-a-key-obstacle-you-need-to-remove/#more-210433
Richard Aubrey – Find one legacy media article about the success of Texas and Florida to New York and Michigan. Ask her to read it and then discuss what the article said. If she doesn’t read it then you can truthfully tell her that she is bound up in pagan superstition. Wearing a mask is a talisman of her cult religion. If she reads it and concedes some points it is a start. Keep it up.
Change is a process and not a moment.
ps. Anytime anyone uses the slogan “Black Lives Matter” say right after that “including unborn ones.” See the thought shock on their face.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2021/03/26/gov-abbotts-neanderthal-thinking-about-mask-mandate-turns-out-to-have-been-right-n1435308
Weak knee mask mandate ending in Indiana. Small business’s can thrive.
https://www.wthitv.com/content/news/Health-Officials-Respond-to-Mask-Advisory-574076221.html
@Spartacus:
“ps. Anytime anyone uses the slogan “Black Lives Matter” say right after that “including unborn ones.” See the thought shock on their face.”
Brilliant, Sir! Filed this away for future use.
Pingback:MONDAY EDITION – THE SAMIZDAT HERALD.
Spartacus. Wouldn’t work. The facts are as she needs them to be. Period. You presume she is rational on this. She is not.
The closest she comes to changing her mind is that the issue no longer is an issue and she, in effect, waves her hand and….”I don’t know anything about it.”
@Richard Aubrey:
No need to change their minds… but every need to raise their cognitive dissonance and stress levels. Turnabout is fair. Anything cheap and easy which messes with the Enemy’s collective head at this late hour is good to have, no? Only caveat I can think of is that one should not be outing oneself as a deplorable to random strangers — Grey Rock with them. But Lefty Wine Aunts are fair game.
I endorse Zaphod viewpoint. Reality is going to bite at some point. The wedge point is when the target complains about something be it gas prices, another war or COVID passports. Keep telling them “You should be happy…you voted for it.” Do not absolve them of their responsibility in the mess.
Walk away happy. Don’t let them steal your joy. Positivity is catching.
Change is a process and not a moment.
I have a weekly venue for this. The current issue was to be the Georgia shootings. I noted that the author(s) said it had been too late to work in the Boulder massacre.
I said I’d been anticipating how we should not condemn a group based on the actions of one solitary member of the group. But apparently we’re going to talk about the Georgia shooting.
That might have been too subtle.
The world figure skating championships were in Stockholm this weekend. It was striking to see the contrast between a cheering arena chock-full of maskless people in Sweden and the huge largely empty arenas with a smattering of masked-up fans watching the NCAA basketball tournament here.
In my city, this month, I’ve seen more and more people wearing heavy-duty goggles and 5+ masks or full-on hazmat masks while walking alone outside.
The “dangerous variants” narrative has taken hold, and lockdowns and masking are never going to end in this country.
The world figure skating championships were in Stockholm this weekend. It was striking to see the contrast between a cheering arena chock-full of maskless people in Sweden and the huge largely empty arenas with a smattering of masked-up fans watching the NCAA basketball tournament here.
We’d benefit if college athletics consisted of club sports, if athletic scholarships disappeared, and if the Division I teams were each maintained as farm teams for one or another professional franchise. They could buy the extant athletic facilities where these Division I teams now play or they could rent them from the institution. The players, of course, would be salaried employees.
The “dangerous variants” narrative has taken hold, and lockdowns and masking are never going to end in this country.
[eyeroll].
Definitely not an eyeroll for most people out there when you have the director of the CDC holding back tears during a briefing while stating she has a feeling of “impending doom” about a “fourth wave” of the “variants”:
https://www.axios.com/cdc-fourth-wave-db0a4d6e-3942-4719-9743-62912e5557e0.html
These are the headlines and news snippets most people ingest and believe, hence the associated uptick in goggle-wearing, 5+ mask-wearing, and hazmat gear. And why wouldn’t they believe her? She is the director of the CDC–doesn’t get more “science!” than that.
Other factors, of course. Also, immunity through exposure normalizing community immunity (i.e. mitigation of exponential blooms) protecting individuals at higher risk (e.g. “fat is beautiful” is a comorbidity).
Perhaps early, inexpensive, effective, low-risk treatments (e.g. HCQ cocktail, Imvermectin protocol, Vitamin D) to mitigate disease progression and aid body functions
Our congregation was allowed sing in church last Sunday (still masked, of course, which makes for a lot of hypoxia if you breathe like you are supposed to). We sit in every-other pew, widely spaced, so I faced out into the aisle to mitigate any escaping viruses (which I don’t have because I’m not sick).
I will let you know the results of our experiment.
If I disappear for more than a week, then something bad happened.
😉