Thanks physicsguy, Paul in Boston and all you amateur physicists out there that contributed to a lively and interesting discussion about the driver of the next impending catastrophe that will befall us after recovery from Covid. Thanks also to our Hostess who provides the forum to exchange our ideas.
Ah, I remember those ghastly jello mold salads my grandmother served as a the first course for Thanksgiving supper. Green jello mold with carrots and radishes atop a bed of iceburg lettuce. Being a child in the early 60’s had few drawbacks, but suffering through that was one.
Xylourgos, you’re welcome.
General inquiry: how many here have had the second Moderna dose, and what were the effects? Wife gets hers on Sunday, I get mine on Monday. Seeing some social media posts about people being fairly ill after the second dose. Just wondering what we are in for. 1st dose we both just had a sore arm…no big deal and typical for any vaccine I’ve gotten before. And yes, saw the report about the 39 yr old in Utah.
Just caught up with Paul in Boston’s comment in previous thread. Everything he said is quite correct, especially with regard to convection which really is a dominant energy transport process. It’s usually ignored by the climate people because it is so hard to model. How important? Watch thunderstorms build on a summer afternoon. Again, thanks to Paul for bringing up issues I didn’t.
physicsguy,
Lucky you. At least you can get a vaccine. In my case, I’ve made it into the sub sub category that is eligible for vaccination, but now they are picking and choosing zip codes. Only the zip codes with most irresponsible people who have the highest infection rates are getting served. Social equity must be ensured.
The vaccine side effects seem to be extremely variable. My guess is that soreness in the muscle or near the injection site is a direct effect, but many of the other illness symptoms might come from the adjuvant in the vaccine that stimulates an inflammatory response.
I have asked this question several times and I don’t believe anyone has responded. Maybe folks assumed I was joking? (I have that effect on people)
Can someone explain what the vaccine does that having and recovering from COVID does not, in regards to risk of reinfection?
I understand the vaccine works differently than the virus. I also understand it’s much preferable to be exposed to an inert substance that can positively trigger an immuno-response than taking a chance on the real thing. However, for folks like me who have had the real thing, how is my immune system currently any less prepared than someone who is vaccinated?
Most everyone I know who has recovered from the illness seems to share my attitude; I want to wait until all those at risk are vaccinated before I take a spot from anyone. And, I really don’t see the point.
I know two post recovery people who could not get the vaccine fast enough, but everyone else I personally know who has recovered from COVID is not queueing up yet.
There are people in my life pushing me to get on “the list.” It’s worse peer pressure than the potheads in my High School in the ’70s, and seems about as wise. When I ask them why, the only response I get (when I get any response) is, “Immunity after the illness only lasts 3 months.” First, that’s wrong. We have no idea. It’s a “novel” virus. Second, if that’s the case then why isn’t everyone who is currently getting vaccinated going on a list for a booster three months from now?
Does the vaccine give you longer immunity than contracting the disease and recovering does not? I am asking this seriously, sincerely.
physicsguy:
I had the second Moderna vaccination on 2/25/21. Same shoulder, same response, very local soreness in the shoulder for about two days. A slight headache the next day (very rare for me, as I usually give headaches). Good luck and hope the house hunting in FL is successful.
Take two shots and put jello on it? Or take two jello shots and call in the morning?
“Put the lime in the coconut … and call me in the morning … put the lime in the coconut ….. such a silly woman.”
Was this another pop music or Megan and Harry open thread?
Rufus, not being anything near a biologist, I wish I could answer your question. Common sense and past history with regard to viruses and vaccines would suggest that once having had the virus, one would be immune…take measles for example. With this bug, who knows? Given my suspicion it’s an engineered bug that may be a game changer.
We need some virologists, biologists, epidemiologists to visit Neo.
Rufus,
My non-expert two cents: A COVID recovered businessman from Hong Kong traveled all over Europe and caught COVID again. (The only such case I’ve read about.) The medical expert discussing this said that your immune system is not a binary system. It isn’t just no immunity or full immunity. The immunity gets stronger with each exposure.
This is born out (perhaps) by the fact that both the Moderna and Pfizer trials showed that two smaller doses separated in time by about a month works much better than one big dose. I have heard of recovered COVID patients deciding to get only one dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.
If SARS-CoV-2 is anything like the original SARS-CoV, your recovered immunity should last for a decade or more. It’s not clear how long the vaccine immunity lasts, as the vaccine response is not identical to the real disease.
I’m a little shocked to read that there have been pregnant women who have been vaccinated and subsequently had seriously negative outcomes; which may or may not be causally related. Better safe than sorry in such instances, IMO.
physicsguy:
My 2nd Moderna dose was a tiny bit worse than my first but still no big deal. Sore arm for a few days. The day after the shot I felt slightly tired and slightly flu-like.
Rufus T. Firefly:
I think they don’t know yet how long immunity lasts with either the illness or the shot, so they are recommending both.
Neo,
Correct. We do not know. It’s new, novel. So how did we learn with the Polio vaccine, or Mumps or Rubella? Did they just wait decades to see if any vaccinated folks eventually came down with Polio, Mumps or Rubella? I think the Chicken Pox vaccine doesn’t last, and that’s why they advise a booster to avoid shingles in old age?
I assume they periodically test samples of vaccinated folks and non-vaccinated, post recovery folks to gauge immunity? I honestly do not know. If that’s the case, then those of us who have recovered may have better immunity than vaccinated folks? I don’t think there are any vaccinated folks more than 4 months out from getting the vaccine, so how would we know?
Regarding your point about us not knowing, therefore why not get vaccinated? I can sort-of see that logic, but if that’s our communal approach why are all vaccinated folks not getting re-scheduled for boosters in 3 or 6 months? We don’t know for either group.
There seems to be a genuine difference in our society’s attitude about the vaccine and recovered infected folks and I’m just wondering if anyone knows if there is any science behind that, or if it’s just an admission that we are in uncharted territory. I’ve never seen that attitude with Mumps or Measles. When I was a kid and got the Mumps none of my Aunts were calling me everyday to see if I’d got the Mumps vaccine six months after recovering. As scarce as the vaccine still is for many folks who are at risk it seems wasteful to use it on folks who likely have immunity.
Rufus T. Firefly:
We used to get booster shots for certain diseases, based on data they amassed over time. That’s my understanding, anyway. I was in one of the first cohorts to get a polio shot, and later I recall getting at least one booster and still later the live vaccine. And tetanus booster, etc., every so often.
Also, although I have had shingles, they keep recommending I should get a shingles shot, too, even though it’s extremely rare to get shingles twice.
neo:
And isn’t shingles a joy!
I had had chickenpox. I put off the shingles vaxx, caught it and regretted it. I got early treatment, so it wasn’t so bad, but my belly was super-sensitive for several years.
Antibodies, which the body creates in response to infection, linger in the blood plasma for several weeks or months, but their levels significantly drop with time. The immune system has a more efficient way of dealing with pathogens: instead of producing antibodies all the time, it creates memory B cells that recognize the pathogen, and can quickly unleash a new round of antibodies when they encounter it a second time.
But how well this memory works depends on the pathogen. To understand the case with SARS-CoV-2, Nussenzweig and his colleagues studied the antibody responses of 87 individuals at two timepoints: one month after infection, and then again six months later. As expected, they found that although antibodies were still detectable by the six-month point, their numbers had markedly decreased. Lab experiments showed that the ability of the participants’ plasma samples to neutralize the virus was reduced by five-fold.
In contrast, the patients’ memory B cells, specifically those that produce antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, did not decline in number, and even slightly increased in some cases. “The overall numbers of memory B cells that produced antibodies attacking the Achilles’ heel of the virus, known as the receptor-binding domain, stayed the same,” says Christian Gaebler, a physician and immunologist in Nussenzweig’s lab. “That’s good news because those are the ones that you need if you encounter the virus again.”
Viral stowaways
A closer look at the memory B cells revealed something surprising: these cells had gone through numerous rounds of mutation even after the infection resolved, and as a result the antibodies they produced were much more effective than the originals. Subsequent lab experiments showed this new set of antibodies were better able to latch on tightly to the virus and could recognize even mutated versions of it.
physicsguy:
I had the second Moderna vaccination on 3/8/21, with exactly the same result as om @11:37: local shoulder soreness for about two days and a slight headache.
huxley:
Fortunately my shingles was mild – I got antiviral meds very quickly. That may have made a difference, or maybe it was going to be mild anyway.
Abstract
Here we report on the antibody and memory B cell responses of a cohort of 20 volunteers who received the Moderna (mRNA-1273) or Pfizer–BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccine against SARS-CoV-21,2,3,4. Eight weeks after the second injection of vaccine, volunteers showed high levels of IgM and IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S) and receptor-binding-domain (RBD) binding titre. Moreover, the plasma neutralizing activity and relative numbers of RBD-specific memory B cells of vaccinated volunteers were equivalent to those of individuals who had recovered from natural infection5,6. However, activity against SARS-CoV-2 variants that encode E484K-, N501Y- or K417N/E484K/N501-mutant S was reduced by a small—but significant—margin. The monoclonal antibodies elicited by the vaccines potently neutralize SARS-CoV-2, and target a number of different RBD epitopes in common with monoclonal antibodies isolated from infected donors5,6,7,8. However, neutralization by 14 of the 17 most-potent monoclonal antibodies that we tested was reduced or abolished by the K417N, E484K or N501Y mutation. Notably, these mutations were selected when we cultured recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus expressing SARS-CoV-2 S in the presence of the monoclonal antibodies elicited by the vaccines. Together, these results suggest that the monoclonal antibodies in clinical use should be tested against newly arising variants, and that mRNA vaccines may need to be updated periodically to avoid a potential loss of clinical efficacy.
Ugh. Good news: Both recovered and vaccinated people should have lasting immunity from memory B-cells (whatever that duration is). Bad news: The COVID mutations are a significant problem.
Fortunately my shingles was mild – I got antiviral meds very quickly. That may have made a difference, or maybe it was going to be mild anyway.
neo:
That’s my understanding. Two people I know of got shingles before the meds and were pretty miserable for years.
Thanks for the information, TommyJay. It seems my reasoning is correct; there is no, known difference. My resistance may last longer than vaccinated folks, may last less, may be identical. Seems odd they aren’t making recently recovered folks wait at the end of the vaccination line, at a minimum.
Those lamps look as if they were modeled after entries in James Lileks’ “Gallery of Regrettable Food”.
The Latest Decalogue:
Thou shalt have one God only; who
Would be at the expense of two?
No graven images may be
Worshipp’d, except the currency:
Swear not at all; for, for thy curse
Thine enemy is none the worse:
At church on Sunday to attend
Will serve to keep the world thy friend:
Honour thy parents; that is, all
From whom advancement may befall:
Thou shalt not kill; but need’st not strive
Officiously to keep alive:
Do not adultery commit;
Advantage rarely comes of it:
Thou shalt not steal; an empty feat,
When it’s so lucrative to cheat:
Bear not false witness; let the lie
Have time on its own wings to fly:
Thou shalt not covet; but tradition
Approves all forms of competition.
(Arthur Hugh Clough)
The above goes nicely with Betjeman’s In Westminster Abbey <— which could do with a Punch / Private Eye style makeover and wokefying.
Physicsguy wonders about immunity? The answer I’ve read is that even Covid-19 contractors ought to get the vaccine because it likely confers longer-term resistance than infection does. (Get the jab, but get it later, like next autumn.)
He writes: “Common sense and past history with regard to viruses and vaccines would suggest that once having had the virus, one would be immune…take measles for example. With this bug, who knows?”
Indeed, we cannot be certain. It’s been in the wild too short to have the data to be certain. But at this point, the booster shot effect seems sensible strategy to me, given the newly circulating variants that could defeat prior infection.
Obviously,
Last night I watched “Jeremiah Johnson” a 1972 film starring Robert Redford as a real live mountain man from the 1800s loosely based on a true story.
It’s the last major Hollywood film I can remember intended as a serious epic. It had “Overture” and “Intermission” sections with nothing happening but big soundtrack music, like “2001” and David Lean films.
It’s worth watching for the spectacular scenery (Utah) alone. They don’t make ’em like this anymore. I felt the sorrow I feel when I watch a good Western that we’ve lost the Western twice — first, when the period came to an end, second, when people just stopped caring about that part of our American heritage. I don’t think you can understand America without coming to terms with its pioneering phase.
Of course, “Jeremiah Johnson” is quite problematic by woke standards. Jeremiah is heroic for living by his strength, wits and fortitude in the wild. But his claim to fame in the film and history is that after the Crow tribe killed his wife, he became a savage Crow killer. Supposedly, the Crow came to respect, even revere him and towards the end they made peace and became brothers. That’s the story anyway. Though I doubt it would play today, given woke scrutiny.
HuxleyBob says, check it out.
huxley:
“Recent” westerns, try “True Grit” and “Hostiles.” I make no claims for cinematic sophistication. YMMV
First!
Thanks physicsguy, Paul in Boston and all you amateur physicists out there that contributed to a lively and interesting discussion about the driver of the next impending catastrophe that will befall us after recovery from Covid. Thanks also to our Hostess who provides the forum to exchange our ideas.
Ah, I remember those ghastly jello mold salads my grandmother served as a the first course for Thanksgiving supper. Green jello mold with carrots and radishes atop a bed of iceburg lettuce. Being a child in the early 60’s had few drawbacks, but suffering through that was one.
Xylourgos, you’re welcome.
General inquiry: how many here have had the second Moderna dose, and what were the effects? Wife gets hers on Sunday, I get mine on Monday. Seeing some social media posts about people being fairly ill after the second dose. Just wondering what we are in for. 1st dose we both just had a sore arm…no big deal and typical for any vaccine I’ve gotten before. And yes, saw the report about the 39 yr old in Utah.
Just caught up with Paul in Boston’s comment in previous thread. Everything he said is quite correct, especially with regard to convection which really is a dominant energy transport process. It’s usually ignored by the climate people because it is so hard to model. How important? Watch thunderstorms build on a summer afternoon. Again, thanks to Paul for bringing up issues I didn’t.
physicsguy,
Lucky you. At least you can get a vaccine. In my case, I’ve made it into the sub sub category that is eligible for vaccination, but now they are picking and choosing zip codes. Only the zip codes with most irresponsible people who have the highest infection rates are getting served. Social equity must be ensured.
The vaccine side effects seem to be extremely variable. My guess is that soreness in the muscle or near the injection site is a direct effect, but many of the other illness symptoms might come from the adjuvant in the vaccine that stimulates an inflammatory response.
I have asked this question several times and I don’t believe anyone has responded. Maybe folks assumed I was joking? (I have that effect on people)
Can someone explain what the vaccine does that having and recovering from COVID does not, in regards to risk of reinfection?
I understand the vaccine works differently than the virus. I also understand it’s much preferable to be exposed to an inert substance that can positively trigger an immuno-response than taking a chance on the real thing. However, for folks like me who have had the real thing, how is my immune system currently any less prepared than someone who is vaccinated?
Most everyone I know who has recovered from the illness seems to share my attitude; I want to wait until all those at risk are vaccinated before I take a spot from anyone. And, I really don’t see the point.
I know two post recovery people who could not get the vaccine fast enough, but everyone else I personally know who has recovered from COVID is not queueing up yet.
There are people in my life pushing me to get on “the list.” It’s worse peer pressure than the potheads in my High School in the ’70s, and seems about as wise. When I ask them why, the only response I get (when I get any response) is, “Immunity after the illness only lasts 3 months.” First, that’s wrong. We have no idea. It’s a “novel” virus. Second, if that’s the case then why isn’t everyone who is currently getting vaccinated going on a list for a booster three months from now?
Does the vaccine give you longer immunity than contracting the disease and recovering does not? I am asking this seriously, sincerely.
physicsguy:
I had the second Moderna vaccination on 2/25/21. Same shoulder, same response, very local soreness in the shoulder for about two days. A slight headache the next day (very rare for me, as I usually give headaches). Good luck and hope the house hunting in FL is successful.
Take two shots and put jello on it? Or take two jello shots and call in the morning?
“Put the lime in the coconut … and call me in the morning … put the lime in the coconut ….. such a silly woman.”
Was this another pop music or Megan and Harry open thread?
Rufus, not being anything near a biologist, I wish I could answer your question. Common sense and past history with regard to viruses and vaccines would suggest that once having had the virus, one would be immune…take measles for example. With this bug, who knows? Given my suspicion it’s an engineered bug that may be a game changer.
We need some virologists, biologists, epidemiologists to visit Neo.
Rufus,
My non-expert two cents: A COVID recovered businessman from Hong Kong traveled all over Europe and caught COVID again. (The only such case I’ve read about.) The medical expert discussing this said that your immune system is not a binary system. It isn’t just no immunity or full immunity. The immunity gets stronger with each exposure.
This is born out (perhaps) by the fact that both the Moderna and Pfizer trials showed that two smaller doses separated in time by about a month works much better than one big dose. I have heard of recovered COVID patients deciding to get only one dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.
If SARS-CoV-2 is anything like the original SARS-CoV, your recovered immunity should last for a decade or more. It’s not clear how long the vaccine immunity lasts, as the vaccine response is not identical to the real disease.
I’m a little shocked to read that there have been pregnant women who have been vaccinated and subsequently had seriously negative outcomes; which may or may not be causally related. Better safe than sorry in such instances, IMO.
physicsguy:
My 2nd Moderna dose was a tiny bit worse than my first but still no big deal. Sore arm for a few days. The day after the shot I felt slightly tired and slightly flu-like.
Rufus T. Firefly:
I think they don’t know yet how long immunity lasts with either the illness or the shot, so they are recommending both.
Neo,
Correct. We do not know. It’s new, novel. So how did we learn with the Polio vaccine, or Mumps or Rubella? Did they just wait decades to see if any vaccinated folks eventually came down with Polio, Mumps or Rubella? I think the Chicken Pox vaccine doesn’t last, and that’s why they advise a booster to avoid shingles in old age?
I assume they periodically test samples of vaccinated folks and non-vaccinated, post recovery folks to gauge immunity? I honestly do not know. If that’s the case, then those of us who have recovered may have better immunity than vaccinated folks? I don’t think there are any vaccinated folks more than 4 months out from getting the vaccine, so how would we know?
Regarding your point about us not knowing, therefore why not get vaccinated? I can sort-of see that logic, but if that’s our communal approach why are all vaccinated folks not getting re-scheduled for boosters in 3 or 6 months? We don’t know for either group.
There seems to be a genuine difference in our society’s attitude about the vaccine and recovered infected folks and I’m just wondering if anyone knows if there is any science behind that, or if it’s just an admission that we are in uncharted territory. I’ve never seen that attitude with Mumps or Measles. When I was a kid and got the Mumps none of my Aunts were calling me everyday to see if I’d got the Mumps vaccine six months after recovering. As scarce as the vaccine still is for many folks who are at risk it seems wasteful to use it on folks who likely have immunity.
Rufus T. Firefly:
We used to get booster shots for certain diseases, based on data they amassed over time. That’s my understanding, anyway. I was in one of the first cohorts to get a polio shot, and later I recall getting at least one booster and still later the live vaccine. And tetanus booster, etc., every so often.
Also, although I have had shingles, they keep recommending I should get a shingles shot, too, even though it’s extremely rare to get shingles twice.
neo:
And isn’t shingles a joy!
I had had chickenpox. I put off the shingles vaxx, caught it and regretted it. I got early treatment, so it wasn’t so bad, but my belly was super-sensitive for several years.
Just do it.
Dunno about the second shot.
This, on SARS-CoV-2 immunity is interesting.
physicsguy:
I had the second Moderna vaccination on 3/8/21, with exactly the same result as om @11:37: local shoulder soreness for about two days and a slight headache.
huxley:
Fortunately my shingles was mild – I got antiviral meds very quickly. That may have made a difference, or maybe it was going to be mild anyway.
A “Nature” publication from Feb. 10, 2021, including this same researcher Nussenzweig again.
Ugh. Good news: Both recovered and vaccinated people should have lasting immunity from memory B-cells (whatever that duration is). Bad news: The COVID mutations are a significant problem.
Fortunately my shingles was mild – I got antiviral meds very quickly. That may have made a difference, or maybe it was going to be mild anyway.
neo:
That’s my understanding. Two people I know of got shingles before the meds and were pretty miserable for years.
Thanks for the information, TommyJay. It seems my reasoning is correct; there is no, known difference. My resistance may last longer than vaccinated folks, may last less, may be identical. Seems odd they aren’t making recently recovered folks wait at the end of the vaccination line, at a minimum.
Those lamps look as if they were modeled after entries in James Lileks’ “Gallery of Regrettable Food”.
The Latest Decalogue:
Thou shalt have one God only; who
Would be at the expense of two?
No graven images may be
Worshipp’d, except the currency:
Swear not at all; for, for thy curse
Thine enemy is none the worse:
At church on Sunday to attend
Will serve to keep the world thy friend:
Honour thy parents; that is, all
From whom advancement may befall:
Thou shalt not kill; but need’st not strive
Officiously to keep alive:
Do not adultery commit;
Advantage rarely comes of it:
Thou shalt not steal; an empty feat,
When it’s so lucrative to cheat:
Bear not false witness; let the lie
Have time on its own wings to fly:
Thou shalt not covet; but tradition
Approves all forms of competition.
(Arthur Hugh Clough)
The above goes nicely with Betjeman’s In Westminster Abbey <— which could do with a Punch / Private Eye style makeover and wokefying.
Nobility.
This just popped up in my Gab feed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxoIYIdCja4
Physicsguy wonders about immunity? The answer I’ve read is that even Covid-19 contractors ought to get the vaccine because it likely confers longer-term resistance than infection does. (Get the jab, but get it later, like next autumn.)
He writes: “Common sense and past history with regard to viruses and vaccines would suggest that once having had the virus, one would be immune…take measles for example. With this bug, who knows?”
Indeed, we cannot be certain. It’s been in the wild too short to have the data to be certain. But at this point, the booster shot effect seems sensible strategy to me, given the newly circulating variants that could defeat prior infection.
Obviously,
Last night I watched “Jeremiah Johnson” a 1972 film starring Robert Redford as a real live mountain man from the 1800s loosely based on a true story.
It’s the last major Hollywood film I can remember intended as a serious epic. It had “Overture” and “Intermission” sections with nothing happening but big soundtrack music, like “2001” and David Lean films.
It’s worth watching for the spectacular scenery (Utah) alone. They don’t make ’em like this anymore. I felt the sorrow I feel when I watch a good Western that we’ve lost the Western twice — first, when the period came to an end, second, when people just stopped caring about that part of our American heritage. I don’t think you can understand America without coming to terms with its pioneering phase.
Of course, “Jeremiah Johnson” is quite problematic by woke standards. Jeremiah is heroic for living by his strength, wits and fortitude in the wild. But his claim to fame in the film and history is that after the Crow tribe killed his wife, he became a savage Crow killer. Supposedly, the Crow came to respect, even revere him and towards the end they made peace and became brothers. That’s the story anyway. Though I doubt it would play today, given woke scrutiny.
HuxleyBob says, check it out.
huxley:
“Recent” westerns, try “True Grit” and “Hostiles.” I make no claims for cinematic sophistication. YMMV
Black on White Murders in February:
https://vdare.com/articles/34-deaths-if-you-count-one-hmong-girl-definitely-not-killed-by-white-supremacists-february-2021-another-month-in-the-death-of-white-america
Pointless, of course for me to post extra noise about these already reported-to-death causes célèbres.
om:
I’m still for the Waynester, True-Grit-wise, though the Spielberg-Jeff-Bridges-et-al. lineup was might tasty.
I’m watching a recording of our Commander in Chief’s speech. What an incredible mediocrity.
If we only had a President with as much character and intellectual depth as PeeWee Herman.