I’m tired of hearing over and over that it would be especially hard or even impossible to make a vaccine against COVID
According to [Dr. Bhattacharya’s] assessment, a vaccine is an open-ended question. None of the other coronaviruses that infect humans have one and there is no guarantee this one will.
Technically true but also somewhat misleading.
Because COVID is related to the coronaviruses causing SARS and MERS, it’s often pointed out that we never developed a vaccine for either, despite efforts. But there were differences in those diseases compared to COVID which hampered the vaccine efforts:
In the case of MERS, it is likely that the vaccine development was delayed because of the scarcity of suitable and cost-effective small animal models during pre-clinical experimentation. In addition, it is probable that a vaccine has not been delivered because of the low interest in investing in a vaccine for a disease that has produced relatively low and geographically centralized cases (compared with other more global and persistent infectious diseases such as influenza, HIV and tuberculosis). This last factor might have also contributed to the lack of a vaccine for SARS, in the sense that it was considered pointless to continue investing in a vaccine for a disease whose cases ceased to be reported in 2004.
In other words, for SARS and MERS the creation of a vaccine ceased being of commercial interest rather quickly. Vaccine development is expensive, and if there’s no economic incentive there’s no motive to go forward to the end point of an actual working vaccine.
The article I just quoted was published in late April, when the COVID pandemic was probably at its height. It goes on to mention several things that were learned in the course of the initial quest for SARS and MERS vaccines, things that will help in the quest for a COVID vaccine.
Another argument I often see made against the development of a COVID vaccine is that the common cold is a coronavirus and we have no vaccine against the common cold. However, the common cold is not primarily a coronavirus, although it certainly can be. Common colds are more often caused by rhinoviruses, and a wide variety of viruses are implicated. Here’s some information about that:
Vaccines target a specific virus or pathogen. One difficulty with developing a vaccine for the common cold is there are at least 200 different viruses that can cause cold symptoms, including rhinovirus, coronavirus, adenoviruses, and parainfluenza.
Rhinovirus makes up about 75% of colds. Still, there are more than 150 strains of it circulating at the same time.
At this time, there is currently no way for one vaccine to protect against all possible strains that can cause the common cold…
However, colds are self-limiting, meaning they go away on their own typically within about a week. Although they are a nuisance and affect everyone, they generally don’t cause serious problems for people that impact their lives long-term.
That may not change your desire for a common cold vaccine, but more than public demand must be considered when weighing vaccine development decisions.
Vaccine research is costly and takes a long time, so those dollars and hours are often allocated to creating vaccines and medications to treat and prevent illnesses that have a more serious impact on people’s lives and health.
So that’s the story – too many viruses would have to be covered by the vaccine, and common colds are mainly considered an annoyance factor compared to more deadly illnesses – although colds do cause a lot of misery.
COVID, on the other hand, still is prevalent enough and deadly enough to justify the search for a vaccine. Of course, there’s no guarantee that an effective and safe one will be developed, but I’ve not seen anything that convinces me it’s especially unlikely. What I have seen are a number of articles damping down expectations. Here’s a typical one.
So yes, there may be glitches along the way. And yes, a vaccine may not confer complete immunity against COVID. And yes, there may be logistical problems with the vaccine’s distribution. But I think one is likely to be developed, and I think it’s likely to improve the situation.
Do we need a vaccine? Currently, only 0.8% of active cases are serious. And of those, the net mortality rate is somewhere close to 0.3%. So, even if you have an active case you have a 99.7% chance of survival.
Thw Wuflu is now more about politics than the health of the population. And the war against HCQ is literally killing people in the US. I don’t normally quote the wicked witch, but “What a world! What a world!”
physicsguy:
I think we need one unless the COVID rate drops precipitously. We need it for the elderly and those with illnesses that make them more vulnerable. We also need it to stop or at least reduce whatever rationale is being use to justify the lockdowns (not that they’ll shut up with that, especially if Trump continues as president and the left thinks it’s in their interest to continue harming the economy).
Well, God Of Science Fauci now says the chances of a vaccine being very effective are ‘not great’ so we’ll just have to stay locked down forever I guess.
physicsguy, neo,
I’m with physicsguy in that I have a hard time seeing why this is necessary for the vast, vast majority of the people but apparently our politicians have decided it is the new requirement.
What an absolute clusterf**k. Much shame on many many people.
Legacy data laundering.
Death harvesting.
That is what is now driving this train to a large degree. CTP just pretends this isn’t happening and reports the numbers in an intentionally unserious manner.
How many people out there are like the Ohio governor but don’t have the ability to be tested multiple times even in the same day? Who knows and how dare you wonder, do you want people to die?
Griffin:
How many people in this country do you think are over 60? All of them could benefit, plus the country would benefit if the most vulnerable were protected.
I don’t have figures for over-60, but this chart says there are a little over 41 million people in the US over 62. That’s not the “vast majority” of Americans. But it’s certainly a vast number of people.
Do you really think that it’s not worth developing a vaccine for the 41+ million people over 62? We get flu vaccines every year (at least I do, and so did many people over 60) and our chances of dying from it are not all that great. It’s worth it to get a vaccine, however.
neo,
Also there are the family members of the over 60s who would be able to visit them and care for their everyday needs and have family reunions without worrying.
Next door neighbor’s grandfather died from COVID19 (Wuhan virus) last week. Jim Sr. was in late 70’s and had just been over from western WA to help put the grand daughter’s/son in law’s house on the market, and seemed quite well 3 weeks ago. Soon after Jim Sr’s diabetes got out of control which put him in the hospital, where they found he had COVID19. Within a week he was on a ventilator and quickly perished. Jim Jr and Kevin, the son in law, all got it at the same time. Jim Jr (in his 50’s) and Kevin (in his 30’s) are not seriously ill (“I’m feeling much better!”).
So I would say, yes a vaccine would be welcome for those with known co-morbidities and the elderly.
The entire Wuhan virus business reminds me of an old joke: The King said, “Oh shit!” And 50,000 loyal subjects immediately squatted and defecated.
We accept the tyranny of the Democratic governors, and the opinionated words (never does he utter a fact) from MSM-worshiped Fauci. While small and medium businesses are closed, never to re-open, like all Federal employees his income and employment remain secure.
Physicsguy is entirely correct.
A vaccine, whether or not highly effective, will be mandated by the tyrants, and the injurious effects thereof will be “Too bad, so sad, but we were forced to do it”.
Recall the swine flu outbreak of 1976. Mass immunization was mandated but after it became clear this was the cause of increased numbers of Guillain-Barre syndrome (ascending symmetrical paralysis) with some fatalities, the program was halted after 25% of Americans had been injected.
We have seen a precedent: Cuomo and his health commissioner are guilty of mass murder of the elderly. “I guess I made a mistake” just doesn’t cut it.
neo,
Where did I say it wasn’t worth developing? But I don’t think it should be a must for us to return to normal life.
And I’m hardly heartless on this as my mom is now on month five of a lockdown at her senior living facility. Nobody has been able to visit her in all that time even though her facility has never even had the need to test anyone. She is going to my sister’s next week for a few days and that will be her first time out for more than a couple hours since March 2 and with that she has to be quarantined in her room for 14 days when she returns so says our King.
But the answer to this should not be vaccine or lock them down forever. She is physically alright but there has been a not insignificant decline in her mental state but apparently our leaders don’t care about that.
neo: You are making a curious argument that your opinion of uncertainty about a vaccine is superior to others who have a different opinion of uncertainty.
It’s something which can be argued of course, but to me it’s not a difference which makes much of a difference.
Maybe scientists would have found a vaccine for SARS or MERS if the funding were available. But maybe not.
Maybe COVID is a more likely candidate for a vaccine than AIDS, as Dr. Fauci informed us in your unattributed quote the last time we went around this mulberry bush. But maybe not.
I don’t hold Fauci in the most trustable esteem these days. Nor most scientific authorities if the subject is anywhere near a political third rail.
Frankly I’m not confident the 2020 medical establishment is up to snuff for finding a vaccine even if it is doable.
Of course, this is just my opinion about uncertainty.
_____________________________________
Where have you gone, Jonas Salk?
A nation turns its frightened eyes to you
Neo: the flu vaccines are wretchedly ineffective, down to about 10% in 2017 or was it 2018, but insurors and Medicare pay, so pharmacists give injections on request of customers. My supermarket has a year-round sign out front “Flu shots here”.
I hope a vaccine is developed. But I have serious reservations as to efficacy. And as others have stated it WILL be used by the Dems for political means.
Cicero:
Flu shots are more effective in some years than others. One big reason is that they have to guess which strain will predominate and sometimes they guess wrong. I’ve known that for many years – and you, as a doctor, probably have known it for even longer.
See this:
In addition – as you probably also know – flu vaccines are even better at preventing severe cases of flu requiring hospitalization, even if the person still gets the flu (see the same link for stats on that).
COVID is different than flu because, although there are slight varients in the virus causing COVID, the varients so far have been much smaller than the differences between strains of flu. Therefore, those making a COVID vaccine would be less likely to make the wrong guess compared with a flu vaccine. In addition, it is thought for various reasons that even if the vaccine for COVID doesn’t confer complete immunity it will probably, like many flu vaccines, reduce the severity of cases, which would be a good result.
physicsguy:
In an uncertain situation, everyone makes his or her decision based on that person’s evaluation of what’s most likely and what’s less likely. So I fail to see your point. Of course I, like everyone else who is trying to be rational, look at the data and come to what I think is the best conclusion, in my opinion. Others will differ in their evaluations and opinions.
And note I’m not relying on anything Fauci says. My conclusions have zero to do with him.
Griffin:
This is what you wrote:
I was responding by saying no, it’s not necessary for the majority of people, but it would be well worth developing for a vast number of people, over 41 million.
Cicero:
I think it almost goes without saying – but I’ll say it anyway – that I would be against a mandated vaccine program. And also that, the left being what it is, that is certainly a possible outcome of a vaccine program.
But it certainly hasn’t been that way for the flu or pneumonia. And yet, as I’ve already said, the left just might do it.
But that is also a separate issue from the subject matter of my post, which is about whether it’s possible to develop a vaccine or whether it’s particularly difficult to do so.
neo,
Well, I never said it wasn’t worth developing I said it wasn’t necessary for a huge part of the population and with all the unknowns with any new vaccine I would have a hard time saying a 6 year old or 15 year old needs a vaccine for something that statistically has close to zero impact on them. Will it be worth it if 10 years down the road the vaccine is linked to bad side effects like Cicero mentioned?
I would hope that people would see by now that treating the left as fair actors in this is pure folly. Look how they have constantly moved the goal posts on this. Of course, they will make it mandatory and those that object will be vilified like nothing we have yet seen.
To say ‘well I don’t agree with that’ is pointless when that is where we are heading. I didn’t agree with lockdowns and mandatory masks and no school forever but it still is happening
Griffin:
I would not recommend vaccination for people under 50 or so, unless they had very strong predisposing factors. It would not be worth the risks, unless over time the risks are found to be nil.
Obviously, if the risks are high, higher than those of the disease (or nearly as high), you don’t even give it to those over 60. Even with a vaccine for COVID, it will have been given to many many thousands of people before it is marketed.
If you want to learn more about the Gillian-Barre situation regarding whether vaccines caused it, see this. Not at all clear there was any relationship.
Lastly, a leftist government could mandate anything and everything. But I don’t see that as a reason not to develop a vaccine. If we get a leftist government, a mandated vaccine will be the least of our worries.
Neo: “the subject matter of my post, which is about whether it’s possible to develop a vaccine or whether it’s particularly difficult to do so.”
Neither of those subjects can be adequately addressed in this forum.
Very few virologists or immunologists venture here!
neo,
Ok, I agree with just about everything you said but again I never said it wasn’t worth developing. The first sentence of your 7:31 post is my position pretty much.
I know very little about the process of developing vaccines, but I agree with most of what Neo’s said here.
All along, my problem with those who hold out hope for rapid vaccine development has been the timeline. My understanding is that the whole process generally takes years, not months. By dispensing with much of the testing and safety procedures, a Russian group has compressed that timeline dramatically. They claim that they’ll start production this September, and immunization in October. (https://tinyurl.com/y65bns34) This sounds like a high-risk operation, but I can’t help but be curious about the results.
I’m past the point of being surprised about the politicization of everything related to COVID-19, but I don’t look forward to politicians imposing vaccination on everybody. That too may be first tried in Russia.
Of course, they won’t (probably) physically force people to get the vaccine but they will make it impossible to take part in society.
Want your kid to go to school? Has to be vaccinated.
Want to fly? Have to be vaccinated.
Want to shop or work? Have to be vaccinated.
But they won’t force you.
‘May I see your papers?’
Griffin:
Papers? No, you can just get a tattoo or wear a V on you clothing. They won’t force you, but you will be made to care?
For me, it’s not so much whether or not there will be a vaccine. I expect there will be and sooner rather than later. The question is will it be accepted? I’m certainly not going to be the first one in line. And that raises the question: will it be mandatory? And if so how would it be enforced?
Slightly off the vaccine topic and it is Canada but a window into what the legal and medical professions were saying a long, long time ago..err 2018.
http://www.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1291844622550016000
om,
Well perhaps to insure against fraud our doctors can tattoo a number somewhere like, I don’t know, on your forearm so the officials can check that you have in fact been vaccinated.
I understand, or at least have heard some commentary to this effect, that the German government is or may be considering enforced treatment or vaccination when such things become available in mass quantity. I imagine that is to be attributed to the considerable distrust that certain commentators have toward the current German regime (said commentators being German themselves, to be clear). So maybe Russia might be first, maybe not.
This also ties in with the new German rule that travelers coming back to Germany from various COVID ‘hot spots’ have to be tested upon arrival. I’m not clear at this point on the further consequences, such as, does that mean that even if one is a German citizen, if one tests positive, one isn’t allowed back home or something?
In any event, somebody in Europe is certain to try to enforce mass vaccinations, and the lefties over here will take that as their cue. I have the feeling that certain governors here will do their best to essentially hold their populations’ liberty hostage to this contingency. (Yes, I know I’m being Captain Obvious. Do you like my costume? A big bright bagel symbol on my chest and… oh, wait, that conjures up some unpleasant associations… but mine’s orange, so there!)
Here’s a small question: how many people have ever died from the common cold? I figure there must have been some handful over the years. Just curious; it’s of no great moment.
om, I’m sorry about your neighbor’s granddad.
This post at Power Line touches on a lot of the reasons why people have reacted the way they have to this.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/covid-and-the-death-of-common-sense.php
I voiced my concern on another forum the other day about this. To the general public, this virus is trivial. It is dangerous because of immune system malfunction.
Vaccination does not magically confer immunity – it requires an intact and functional immune system. It works by introducing a weakened or killed virus to the immune system so it can respond. If the problem is in the immune system responding in an abnormal way to the virus itself what happens when you vaccinate someone at risk of this occurring? (That’s in addition to the fact that the elderly have less effective response to any vaccination.) I have not been able to find the formal study or studies to confirm, but in a separate conversation, someone mentioned that there was a trial in which vaccinated elderly mice fared worse against the first SARS than unvaccinated elderly mice.
KyndyllG,
Yes, I mentioned that here last week.
Won’t it be nice when we kill a vulnerable person that we are trying to protect with the vaccine.
KyndyllG; Griffin:
There’s nothing special about a COVID vaccine in that regard. For many (possibly all?) vaccines there are warnings about who should not be vaccinated. If someone is markedly immunocompromised in a way that would be likely to make a particular vaccine dangerous, it is recommended that that person not be vaccinated. For example, see this and see also this.
There are apparently quite a number of vaccines which look promising, and it may be by early in 2021 several will be available. I don’t know how much testing is needed to demonstrate there will be no long-term bad side effects. I suspect many of us now in our seventies would go for something that “might” give us trouble in 10-20 years, in exchange for getting out of the house in the interim. This would be even more true for my friends in their late seventies and eighties.
Another consideration which I had not considered at all came to me on a religious email list. Some of the vaccines are being developed using fetal stem cell lines, which is a problem for Catholics and others:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/which-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-derived-from-aborted-childrens-cell-lines
The article goes into some detail on which vaccines are using this technology, and why.
Better would be for our idiot “expert” agencies to green light early treatment with HCQ + zinc, so I could feel that my probably 96% chance of survival would be even better.
The link I just posted has a description of the various vaccines in development. They are not all killed virus shots. Someone with more technical knowledge than I have might be able to make more sense of the options.
Philip Sells:
I doubt that anyone has ever died from the common cold, per se. However, if the common cold leads to pneumonia in a susceptible person, I imagine quite a few have died that way. Flu is more likely to lead to pneumonia than a common cold leading to pneumonia, however.
Cicero:
So now, according to Cicero, even if we read what experts have to say about something, both pro and con, and try to evaluate what they are saying as well as what we think on the matter, we are not allowed to open a discussion about it and offer our opinion?
My husband and I have the antibodies. It amazes me–the number of articles I have encountered that state, “even if you have the antibodies, you have no guarantee and will need the vaccine.” In this situation, some of our adult children have investigated the vaccine info and I will say, after watching the RFK, Jr. “debate” with Dershowitz regarding vaccines, I feel very differently than before. Our own personal experience has led us in a direction that we are quite surprised to be following. I recommend that “debate” to everyone. Scare quotes because I will ascribed Dershowitz’s age to his contribution because if that is how a “constitutional scholar” debates and backs up his arguments….well, the word pathetic comes to mind.
A vaccine is absolutely essential if we want to get back to normal life. The whole idea that we can go back to normal without one is laughable at best. We crossed that bridge and went down this path a while ago. There ain’t no going back without a vaccine. Even a half-a*# vaccine will give the perception that there is something that can protect those who are most vulnerable.
Perception is very important here.
What I’m reading from some here is that the whole CV19 thing is overblown and we need to get over it. Sure, that’s an opinion but how exactly do we do that at this stage? Do you expect all the doctors and all the governors and the media to suddenly do a 180 and tell us all to just ignore all you heard, throw caution to the wind and go enjoy living again? That won’t happen. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. We need a vaccine.
Now will they be able to develop one within the year? That’s the magic question. I don’t know. Didn’t the measles vaccine take ten years or more to develop? And that was a record at the time.
Cicero and Neo:
We just need Dr. Fauci to post a comment or two? 😉 Then all would be well. 😉 😉
Until then we do what we can. Sad?
om,
Then he can come back in a few days and post the exact opposite opinion and nobody would care.
Griffin:
Surely not the non-immunologist. He would never do such a thing. Bless my heart.
Can I do that?
But on a more serious note, I noticed that our intrepid modelers at the U Dub (IHME) are at it again, predicting mega death. What would we do without “science?”
om,
Well, he’s America’s foremost immunologist and expert on all things involving schools, football, baseball, and many other things. Just ask him.
om,
Yes, here in WA we will be in lockdown again by October says IHME if we don’t start obeying our betters.
Griffin:
The latest from those maroons at IHME.
http://www.healthdata.org/
“Racism is a public health issue” and not to be outdone
“295,011COVID-19 deaths based on Current projection scenario by December 1, 2020”
I am reassured knowing it isn’t projected to be 295,012 deaths by Dece,ber 1, 2020. Phew! 😉
Are Bill and Melinda getting their money’s worth?
om,
He gets to go on and pontificate about things he is in no way qualified to address and I guess that makes him feel relevant.
I may have said it before: Basic training at Ft. Dix, winter of 69. Everybody had the flu in seventeen different ways. Company formation sounded like a pack of barking seals. Guys got recycled due to meningitis. The air was cold and dry and people brought their virus loads from all over the country so we could share.
Never had the flu since. I suspect I am superantibodied to an extent that C19 sees me coming and departs rapidly,
So I am not particularly concerned for myself. Don’t even have any co morbidities.
My wife’s experience with the flu over the years has been minimal.
My concern is two-fold. Lots of people BELIEVE and there’s no reason to make them uncomfortable on the few times I’m out in public.
And if there’s some kind of slot between not having it while infected and having it asymptomatically, I’d be shedding it though not sick.
I do Meals on Wheels, so both of those concern me.
But the first is mostly due to Fauci & Co. despite contrary evidence, which may or may not be valid.
the second is a long shot I’m morally not allowed to inflict on others. Presuming Fauci’s right, and if he’s not…..how do I know?
So even though I haven’t been permanently immunized by attending a riot, I’l still likely not vulnerable. But how do other people know this?
after watching the RFK, Jr. “debate” with Dershowitz regarding vaccines,
Dershowitz is an eminent law professor and RFK Jr is a mess who occasionally provides legal services to eleemosynaries. Now, tell me why they are debating vaccines?
Art Deco. I suggest you watch it. Not too long. Eye-opening.
How will long term safety studies be conducted in the short time frames people are talking about. Can “long-term” be compressed to 6 months? Less? Neo, will you feel comfortable with a vaccine that has had less than a year of trials?
Kennedy jr sounds ill in more ways than one.
leavingliberty:
Yes. The vast majority of problems with vaccines are observed more quickly than that.
By the way, I received the Salk polio vaccine in one of the early groups of children.
Sharon W: Do you recall having a sort of cold/flu that might have been Covid?
A vaccine is absolutely essential if we want to get back to normal life. The whole idea that we can go back to normal without one is laughable at best. We crossed that bridge and went down this path a while ago. There ain’t no going back without a vaccine.
Montage: Look up Farr’s Laws about how diseases peak then level out. Life returned to normal after Spanish Flu. I see no reason why it won’t with Covid.
Covid may become endemic and continue to be a threat mostly to the elderly, which is sad, but there’s no eliminating all disease and death. And Covid, as big diseases go, is mild.
It would be great to have a vaccine, but there is more to life than reducing Covid cases/deaths. At some point all the lockdowns and reduced economic activity become more harmful than Covid itself. People in the third world are already starving because of the first world economies have taken big hits. And in the first world, depression, suicide, alcoholism, child abuse, drug abuse etc. have jumped up.
Most Covid discussions ignore the negative repercussions of Covid prevention.
One of the problems with testing is, as mentioned above, the Ohio governor’s experience:
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/ohio-gov-dewine-tests-negative-covid-19-just-hours-after-testing
Apparently, some tests are more reliable than others, which makes you wonder why anyone even bothers with the unreliable ones at all, doesn’t it? if you have to get two tests anyway to get the right answer.
That makes a total hash of the NY Teachers’ intransigence:
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/education/new-york-teachers-unions-demand-school-shutdowns-event-just-one-covid-19
So – which test will they insist be used? Will multiple tests mandated until somebody hits positive and they can all go home again (with full pay, of course)? Kind of like the Democrats continuing to find “overlooked” ballots until their candidate finally gets dragged over the finish line, and then they quit.
To date, I have known personally 2 people who tested positive, only one of whom had to go to the hospital, from which he came home a week later weak but living.
This is the best article I’ve seen on the censored press conference by the Frontline Doctors, which I finally got to view; I have saved the transcript.
https://knowledgeisgood.net/2020/07/31/the-disappeared/
The Power Line post on lack of common sense by people asked what they think is the percentage of (name your country) population that has died from Covid illustrates the general principle of innumeracy, which has been known for years, particularly as described in the book by John Paulos.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innumeracy_%28book%29
“He also stresses the problem between the actual number of occurrences of various risks and popular perceptions of those risks happening.”
I think the “dearth of common sense” is also related to the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect, where we are able to accurately evaluate news stories that address our own areas of knowledge — and thus can recognize “fake news” — but still accept uncritically whatever is printed / said about areas that we are not familiar with.
Good report on the facts as we know them so far, I think.
Sadly, officials are putting their full weight behind “Shutdown till vaccine”. For example, I heard that my Gov Newsom expects keep us locked down till June 2021.
That’s outrageous!
OK boys and girls, this is not “just a bad flu!” True, it may only kill at bad flu rates. And in that sense, we a free to manage it just like a bad flu.
Covid-19 kills a bit like The Andromeda Strain, ie, by blood coagulation. Hence, the new treatment not imagined before May, is blood thinners, or anti-coagulants.
Here’s a horror story: a new Frankfort University Hospital study of 100, out a week or two ago, found over two thirds with heart damage. Most were never seen in a hospital and a majority had no symptoms, yet even after a median of two months later, they did; over two thirds could have had heart attacks, according to lab test findings.
Covid-19 is not like the flu. It induces hypoxia, ie, it starves the blood the ability to transport oxygen to the major organs by blocking iron oxide or hemogloben. Thus, one third of patients in a Columbia University hospital study had kidney damage. Some with liver damage, lung damage, brain damage, testicular damage. And no one knows if this is temporary or not. It could be lifelong like other similar damage.
But after the Frankfort study on hearts, thinking that it kills few, and most recover — think again. Most appear to recover, but up to half of the recovered may have life long organ damage (likely to shorten lives), plus, a significant portion of those without any “flu” symptoms. (Pathologist Dr, Chris Martensen runs through the long term organ damage seen before the new Frankfort study, at 14.5m. https://youtu.be/JfDpuouYUFc?t=866)
Why is this “flu” the only one treated with prednisone and anti-coagulants. Maybe because it was created in a Chinese lab to be very different than the flu. Yet another dissident Chinese scientist has defected to the US, suggesting this.
Bottom line, Trump’s COVID policies, as articulated by Peter Navarro, has been threefold since early March: short term treatments repurposing known meds (HQC and ivermectin as seen, for example, at http://joannenova.com.au/2020/08/countries-that-use-hydroxychloroquine-may-have-80-lower-covid-death-rates/ ), albeit demonised by Trump Hating DemonCommies, are there, and have been used internationally with very positive results.
And where not used, like in poor Bolivia (see Dr John Campbell’s recent report at YouTube, using “DW” or Deutsche Welle as his news source. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OWxhh4go3c ) with appalling consequences. Then anti-bodies (although an old antiviral, interferon B has been shown to cure roughly 80% of even critically ill,although expensive at $7k per dose expense); and vaccines. (See 6m long video with Dr Campbell interview on New Vaccines and interferon B https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86_uTpZclik)
Vaccine development has been on “Operation Warp Speed” time! A Big Bright spot in this Plague year, with one or more by this winter. (But much of the world may wait until next spring.)
If the world economy has been set back by the virus by trillions of dollars ( and it has), then a few billions, even a couple tens of billions, spent in unprecedented expedited vaccine development has been an enormous cost-benefit ratio investment boosting economic recovery, likely halving the net recovery time period.
Case closed! Thanks neo for advancing this edgy thesis.
You have got it right and for reasons in addition to the ones you already know. The long lasting and only suggestively measured damage is this net public health worry. Prevention: Get 15 minutes of sun twice a week for Vitamin D, if you can. Take 5,000IU (average wight 120 to 140Ibs) supplements a day if you can’t.
“Hence, the new treatment not imagined before May, is blood thinners, or anti-coagulants.” TJ
My husband was hospitalized in early April. Our daughter in law was sharing his lab work with a naval eye surgeon who determined he needed to be on an anticoagulant due to his d dimmer numbers. She called the lead doctor and he called her back and they discussed it. (His original question being, “why would he be?” when asked why he wasn’t on one. She sent him the info and 12 hours later he was, twice a day, until he was discharged. In my husband’s case the hypoxia was caused by untreated severe obstructive sleep apnea. If he had been admitted when I originally brought him 5 days earlier there is no question in my mind that he would not have gone into cytokine storm. He would have been on the oxygen (as it would have been observed that when he lay down he would become hypoxic) and with fluids and the cocktail of 3 he would have recovered just fine. But remember how we shut down the whole country to flatten the curve so that when positive COVID-19 patients presented ill they could be treated? Well, that’s not the way it was lived out by us. And the reason is because the CDC, an agency created for the primary job of devising a protocol for a pandemic, didn’t create one and still doesn’t have one. Massive fail.
Here’s a horror story: a new Frankfort University Hospital study of 100, out a week or two ago,
The studies are haphazardly constructed and not subject to much deliberative peer review and they all contradict each other. I don’t know why you invest in any one of them.
For example, I heard that my Gov Newsom expects keep us locked down till June 2021.
I’m gonna wager his expectations will be dashed.
Sharon W, the performance of the CDC/FDA/NIH in this pandemic is the best argument I’ve ever seen for eliminating central control.
We don’t have to be so lugubrious: 1. Man has always been astonishingly good with technology. 2. We don’t have to produce a vaccine, we can work on innate immunity, boosting Il-6 and Il-8, interferons, and natural killer cells. All kinds of living vaccines that are in use all around the world today and are cheap, can help boost natural immunity…even if they are quite non-specific for Cov-2. Like oral polio vaccine. Or measles. Or BCG. 3. We don’t need perfection, all we need is to reduce death rates a little bit. People don’t mind sicknesses if they are without bad conclusions. 4. Convalescent plasma has got to work somewhat, a little, or a lot. 5. Manufactured monoclonal ABs are going to help some, for sure. 6. You don’t have to necessarily get rid of a bug to assuage its morbidity. Look at bats and pandolins. Look at us. Some of us happily carry C. diff. 7. It’s not god, or punishment or evil, it’s only chemistry.
Well, Neo, I certainly understand your frustration. And hopefully with all of the vast monies being thrown at this vaccine we will have a reasonable vaccine in the not too too distant future. But to date, we have never made a successful RNA vaccine so I’m not holding my breath-I may die of asphyxiation. Luckily, the death/severe morbidity rate if you actually get sick, in most of the population is quite low. People over 60 -and those in contact with folks over 60-need to be very cautious and have careful mask usage and sanitation; and probably isolate oneself as best as possible. Those, especially under 50, should go about their lives and this could hurry on development of herd immunity. Then us old folk can gradually come out of self imposed hibernation. This is truth I think, and the rest is hopeful pie in the sky (for now).
It was the retracted Lancet study showing toxicity that the FDA and WHO issued warnings and advised against the use of HCQ. The fact that story was retracted by Lancet had no effect. The narrative was established that HCQ was too dangerous to use as a treatment.
That’s there story and the medical establishment/big pharma are sticking to it.
Once the FDA issued its warning (or cover), state medical and pharmacy boards have made it impossible to administer the treatment under off-label use.
Meanwhile, the WHO had worked to suppress the HCQ/zinc treatment around the world, and many countries that had been using the drug banned its use.
Here’s a summary of studies/trials/papers from around the world as to it’s effectiveness, both positive and negative.
https://c19study.com/
Here’s an analysis of the studies conducted around the world. It shows that countries that adopted an early use to HCQ had a 79% lower fatality rate.
https://hcqtrial.com/
How does this relate to a discussion on a vaccine?
An effective treatment used early and as a preventative could reduce the need for a vaccine. Enough to upset the balance sheet of drug companies working on a vaccine.
Brian E…the hqtrial link is interesting, but I don’t think they should have called it ‘a country-randomized controlled trial’….it would have been randomized IF countries were given their marching orders to use or not use HCQ from some super-national entity that made the decisions by rolling dice or such.
That said, I also think that randomized trials are not always the *only* way to analyze the effectiveness of a drug or a treatment; when they are not possible, using mathematical methods to account for possible intervening variables are a perfectly respectable approach.
Given the suppression of a treatment that showed effectiveness for early symptoms, the only choice is over the counter treatments. It would be interesting to read what are the choices of self-medication while we wait for a vaccine.
I’m sure I’ve pointed his way before, but for those interested in serious info about covid vaccine development, see Derek Lowe’s site at https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/.
Of special note are comments posted by “mammalian scale-up person” regarding (duh) scaling up production, an often ignored aspect.
If nothing else, it will have a placebo effect… and we can dispose of the clinically unproven use of masks by the general population, worn under incompatible circumstances. That said, they will, of course, need to demonstrate that the excess deaths without treatment (e.g. HCQ+Zn+AZ) will exceed the excess deaths caused the vaccine. So far, the denial of the treatment, Planned Parent, immigration reform, cross-contamination, and perhaps the improper use of masks, has caused excess deaths and collateral damage.
Here in New York, most people go grocery shopping, take walks, go on hikes, walk the dog, pick up pizza, protest, go to restaurants, and see family. If you’re basically doing whatever you want, just with a mask on and frequently using hand sanitizer, you’re not “quarantined” or “locked down.” People have generally dropped the notion that you should just stay home and realized that going outside was never the problem; gathering in close quarters with a lot of other people was the problem. At my 95 year old grandmother’s senior living complex, they are now having small social gatherings and they do accept visitors. My grandmother and other relatives also came to my family’s house for her birthday. A month later, everyone is fine! Anyone still pushing “lockdown” or “isolation” is completely stupid and/or immoral. I find it so sad and absurd that there are some seniors who haven’t left their homes or socialized for over four months. The health implications of that are enormous. When are we going to call people out on how cold and callous they were for asking for indefinite “lockdowns” that would result in people dying from delaying treatment of other conditions, and the negative long-term health effects of limited exercise and time outdoors? What about, as mentioned above, the effects on the poor in third-world countries, or the “depression, suicide, alcoholism, child abuse, and drug abuse?” If people are calling us cold and callous for wanting to revitalize the economy and to reduce the widespread stress and fear the pandemic has caused, let’s call them cold and callous in return for ignoring the deaths that would, and probably already have, occurred because of “lockdowns” and 24/7 panic!
Here is an insightful current article on vaccines.
https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-vaccine-skepticism
Note the FDA standard for a COVID vaccine: appallingly low; must immunize only 50% of recipients, and be effective only for a duration of 6 months!
Cicero, appallingly low standards for a vac? Not early on, because the standard was stated assuming Covid-19 was a bad flu and that by the success of past vaccines for influenza, that was also a standard that could be met by scientists. In other words, it was a compromise to get done what was then considered achievable.
But only in recent weeks does it appear that Killer T-cells are the immune systems chief way of defeating it — not antibodies as was thought early on.
Furthermore, at least two (or three?) of the vaccines into phase 3 effectiveness trialing boosts both!
While it’s a hazardous early call, the likely-hood of getting a 70% or better, even 80% effective vaccine, seems in reach. We don’t know yet for sure since we don’t know how seniors and the elderly fair with new, novel vaccines yet. It is still possible that even among these pack leaders, they’ll fail.
But then the next round of vaccine candidates — some 130 in all — will be called upon. Some will probably improve on effectiveness and succeed better. Maybe to be deployed doing globe-girdling mop up duty, this time, next year.
Doubts on vaccine effectiveness by Brian are briefly answered by Dr Campbell in his 6 minute interview, above on new vaccines. He’s quite optimistic. Take a look and dare to change your doubting Thomas mind.
SEE “Your T-cells determine your Covid-19 risk” by Dr Chris Martensen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG2q_QcAZG8&t=1592s
That some people already have immunity indicates that perhaps there is a less virulent corona virus that that works as a vaccine. If so, there is already a vaccine, we just need to identify it 🙂 It wouldn’t be the first time that happened, Cowpox worked for Smallpox and started the vaccine revolution.
Chuck, what’s been a daunting worry is that antibodies fade rapidly with Covid-19. In months for too many.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-new-uk-study-shows-antibodies-fade-after-three-weeks-2020-7?r=US&IR=T
The important Frankfort University Hospital Heart study of Cardio MRIs, at 17m, published at JAMA Cardio
https://youtu.be/s_fSz3y022o?t=1022
SEE earlier at the above link about evidence from an NBC News report on prolonged fatigue and weakness among mild cases of Covid-19, those not needing doctors attention.
me: “my Gov Newsom expects keep us locked down till June 2021”
Art Deco: “I’m gonna wager his expectations will be dashed.”
Not taking that sucker bait LOL. Yeah, Duh People are voting with their feet, and they’re pushing the edge continuously.
Glad to hear more from SharonW.
I’m finding that, for example, on NextDoor people recognize the death rates are pretty low. At this point, people worry most about the invisible damage mentioned by T J above.
One note, I asked a doctor about reports of lung damage for an asymptomatic infectee. She pretty much laughed and said that if you scan people you find quite amazing things. Lots of people have damage but the human body has tons of duplication and resiliency. So it is far from clear that persistent damage, esp from mild or asymptomatic cases, is due to Covid. It could be that barely remembered pneumonia from a decade ago.
It may also be the case that some extreme body defense reactions get turned off at the height of serious cases. There can be some odd and persistent symptoms from this. Apparently it is possible in most cases to “turn off” the body’s alarm settings and go back to normal function but it can be a painstaking process.
“treating the left as fair actors in this is pure folly. Look how they have constantly moved the goal posts on this. Of course, they will make it mandatory and those that object will be vilified like nothing we have yet seen.” Griffin
Bingo.
“Here’s an analysis of the studies conducted around the world. It shows that countries that adopted an early use to HCQ had a 79% lower fatality rate.
https://hcqtrial.com/“ Brian E.
“Physician Tells Senate, Ivermectin Is a COVID ‘Wonder Drug;’ ‘If You Take It, You Will Not Get Sick'”
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/national/susan-jones/physician-tells-senate-ivermectin-covid-wonder-drug-if-you-take-it-you
It’s never been about responding to Covid-19 in as effective a manner as possible.
It’s always been about using the virus as an opportunity.
Firstly, as a means to get rid of Trump.
Secondly, to greatly reduce small business in America.
“One Simple Statistic Shows Cuomo Is Destroying NYC’s Restaurant Industry For No Reason”
“The figure alone reveals that the governor’s crushing mandate banning in-person dining has no basis in reality.”
https://fee.org/articles/one-statistic-shows-cuomo-is-destroying-nyc-s-restaurant-industry-for-no-reason/
(take it to the bank, Cuomo doeshave a reason)
Thirdly, as a means to getting Americans used to severe reductions in their liberties.
Fourthly, as a means of increasing Big Pharma’s profits, suitably rewarded with future donations to compliant Congressional ‘representatives’…
Ignoring the results of other nation’s actions and treatments, Fauci’s, the FDA and the CDC’s contradictory, ever changing advisements only make sense when the possibility of a monumental scam is considered.
Confirmation is obtained when consideration is given to the many declarations that even after successful deployment of vaccines, years can be expected before life returns to even a pale shadow of what once was normal.
Anyone want to bet? Now that pandemics are seen to be so useful, whether China is already secretely working on a new virus? Or that the democrats will see it as another opportunity? Combine that with the dems coming One Party State… to ensure full compliance for the greater good and you have a perfect storm.