Trump and the urban black vote
There have been periodic hints that some black people who would ordinarily vote Democratic – which is over 90% of black people – might lean towards Trump this time. I tend to doubt it. After all, we’ve heard it before (2016), and it didn’t pan out. Plus, the good economic conditions that fostered the prediction for 2020 are gone.
On the other hand, maybe. Black people, particularly in deep blue cities with large black populations, have been ill-served by the Democratic Party – and “ill-served” is an understatement.
Their neighborhoods have been trashed, and a fair number of those doing the trashing seem to be young white people dressed in black and answering to the description “anarchists.” Crime has risen, shootings are way up, and even little children have been killed as a result. All the victims have been black, as far as I know. And the only thing the left seems willing to do is to call for less policing rather than more.
It seems to me that Trump’s sending in federal agents in an attempt to quell the violence, and explicitly citing the increased loss of black lives as the reason he must step in, could tip some of these voters to him. If so – and I remain tentative about suggesting it will happen – it could affect results in states such as Michigan, and it certainly could impact the popular vote totals.
Last February, Rasmussen polling found black likely voter with a 43% job approval rating for Trump. But these would be the better informed voters.
And last December, Newsday related a cluster of polls showing 30%, similarly.
https://www.newsday.com/opinion/commentary/black-voters-donald-trump-support-1.39184208
It’s likely to go up, especially as Biden comes out and people see how decrepit he’s become. The wild card remains his running mate.
I am skeptical about Trump’s gaining a higher percentage of the black vote than four years ago, since the narrative of his being horribly xenophobic and racist is ceaselessly disseminated through the MSM and on social media, and since courageous black conservatives must always deal with the accusation of being disloyal to their race (Larry Elder’s new documentary is actually called “Uncle Tom”), and an intelligent, thoroughly sympathetic (and pro-black) young conservative such as Candace Owens receives endless abuse as a so-called “white supremacist.” Perhaps there do exist many “shy'” black Trump supporters, but I remain doubtful.
It seems to me that Trump’s sending in federal agents in an attempt to quell the violence, and explicitly citing the increased loss of black lives as the reason he must step in, could tip some of these voters to him.
neo: Yes. Trump has been wooing the black vote carefully and substantively since he became president. He senses a Democratic weakness that regular Republican candidates couldn’t tap, but he can. I think he’s right.
I even think it’s possible he cares about blacks who have been left out of the American Dream due to Dem race politics.
This is 100% anecdotal. Early this year I had to have some old stuff hauled away. The owner was a middle aged black man. While his two younger employees were doing the lifting, out of the blue he started telling me how much he likes Trump. Note I have absolutely nothing in my yard or home which would be a tell, unless he’d looked at my library (he didn’t). And I live in a neighborhood which voted the wrong way.
So maybe it’s true.
I also am not sure they aren’t afraid of that, and it was one of the reasons for the BLM upsurge, hoping to reverse it. I used to dismiss such ideas. No longer. I accept we now live in Pottsylvania.
I guess it’s also possible that those fabled socially conservative Hispanics will one day vote Republican in droves too. Where’s my Flying Car, BTW? I was promised a Flying Car!
I suppose some higher functioning Black Males might quietly vote for saner candidates. And good for them if they do. Anyone who thinks that Black Females won’t vote Muh Feelz needs to get out more 😛
Very unlikely that Blacks of any of the now apparently myriad genders will do anything other than vote tribally for their local Democrat Machine. Alive / Dead / Consciously or not… this is what they will do.
The few that buck this trend won’t even outnumber the Democrat Cemetery Vote. Exponentiate this assertion in any closely contested state.
Forgeddaboudit.
Seriously… this kind of hopeful stuff is Bow Tie Civnat Conservatism. Gotta get out that mindset. If something keeps not working and you keep repeating the same spells and incantations and the genie still doesn’t show up…
The D VP pick will be the “thing.”
Ds will choose their black female market-tested savior & then we’ll see.
If the survey research I’ve seen in re New York City ca. 1997 is accurate and representative, it’s doubtful more than 20% of the black electorate is influenced by current conditions, whatever they may be. For the rest voting Democratic is an identity affirmation. For Trump (or any Republican) doing well would be cadging 15% of the black vote rather than the usual 9%.
Zaphod: I’ll take your point on the black female vote. But I do believe there are serious black male votes possible.
Kanye West’s defection is a very big clue.
Aside: Remember this New Yorker cover which referenced the iconic “Dewey Defeats Truman” image, but with Kanye West holding aloft “Trump Defeats Kanye” triumphantly?
The New Yorker folks thought they were so damn clever and with-it.
–“Cover Story: Kanye’s 2020 Vision”
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/cover-story-2015-09-14
Seriously… this kind of hopeful stuff is Bow Tie Civnat Conservatism
Zaphod: Maybe from the lips of George Will, if that’s what you mean, but recall Trump’s prison reform efforts, which I’d say was hands-across-the-water to the black vote.
Whether one considers it possible or not to move the black vote to Republicans, Trump has been trying. He doesn’t mean it in a George-Will-sort-of-way.
@Huxley
Trump risks losing far more White votes through apathy than he might remotely conceivably gain from Blacks. It’s a waste of time currying their favor.
He hasn’t really done very much. His natural base voter people want to see deportations, a completed wall, and a President with an attention span longer than a goldfish who doesn’t mouth off on Twitter all day.
My hope is that the BLM Anarchy has sufficiently woken the White silent majority such that they will come out to vote Trump despite his many failures to deliver.
The other thing to keep in mind is that everyone is now twigging that Black Lives Matter is mostly a radical white movement, not black.
My bet is blacks, especially those living in burned-out neighborhoods thanks to the riots, are noticing and not liking it.
Furthermore, blacks, when polled, are conservative when it comes to the radical, mostly white, SJW nonsense outside of race.
And even when it comes to race, I wonder. I have read blacks who say they don’t believe the anti-racism stuff but go along out of political expediency.
Zaphod:
If Trump’s base feels that way, they are fools.
He has delivered on more of his promises than the vast majority of presidents, while under greater and unrelenting attack from his many enemies on left and right. And the Democratic Party is especially extreme at this point, and therefore anyone on the right who complains that Trump hasn’t quite done everything he promised, and therefore refrains from voting for him, is merely enabling a very dangerous left to win it all.
Trump risks losing far more White votes through apathy than he might remotely conceivably gain from Blacks. It’s a waste of time currying their favor.
Zaphod: Not sure of your point.
Mine is Trump can be Trump and pursue the black vote without compromising his base.
You seem to be saying it’s a zero-sum game.
Zaphod:
Apparently you missed the part where I wrote “I tend to doubt it.”
And I do tend to doubt it.
I wonder if we’re at a point at which, in terms of the overall political landscape, we start to see different sub-blocs develop within the black voting demographic. On the one hand, when one thinks of the typical black voter, one imagines urban, big metro area, inner-city, etc. But what about the suburban and rural black vote? I wonder if that might get to be more significant around about now. Not in terms of an association specifically with 2020, but in general. I’m not sure.
For while it’s true that, over the long term of the past few decades, the numerical strength of the black middle class has been increasing, the flip side of that is that the proportion of the total US population that is black has been pretty constant at that 13% marker, even as white % has been decreasing and Latino has been increasing steeply. It occurs to me that, with those numbers in mind, as the absolute numbers of black voters increase to a point at which they’re no longer necessarily regardable as a strictly urban-based population and therefore conforming only to urban voting patterns, these new sub-blocs may nonetheless become diluted in the total voting population as a whole; hence, the political differentiation of the black community, which I think is a sign of political maturation, tends to lose some of its punch.
So I don’t know what it means!
There was a link to a clip that somebody passed around a couple of weeks ago – I don’t think it was anybody on this blog; maybe a commenter on Instapundit – a little feature that the BBC did several years ago about life in inner-city Chicago (actually not literally the “inner” city, but this is shorthand) from a slice-of-life perspective of a young rapper who was trying to work his way out of the ‘hood. It made a strong impression on me. The horrors that people there have to put up with, even when they want to have a normal life and live well, are stunning. Would it not be worth it for some president to really go to the mat for those folks? Nation-building at home, so to speak? Interestingly, and I think significantly, that rapper that the Beeb rode along with was an Iraq vet, so he knew full well what real Third World looks like, and he said bluntly at one point that the South Side is like a Third-World country.
Trump is the closest thing we’ve had since… who knows… Jackson?? who might be moved to truly do whatever it took to make a difference there, come hell or high water, but even he has his limits. Whoever it is that takes that bull by the horns would have to burn an unbelievable amount of political and other capital to really move the needle in just one major city. But if it could be done in just one place, like Chicago or St. Louis, then maybe it would have a seed effect elsewhere.
I think there’s much more to be gained from truly fixing just one of the inner cities than there is in grappling with any number of other piddling, who-really-gives-a-hang stuff like this business about diversity in classical music that’s making the rounds in the chattering class right now.
It is not Trump’s base that matters, it is the so-called Independents. Garnering some votes from the 15% of Americans who are black will not make a difference. Blacks are owned by the Democratic Party, as LBJ predicted before signing the Civil Rights bill.
I tend to believe the current polls.
Virtue-signaling (i.e., Democratic) political statements are everywhere, including Boston, where Fenway now supports a huge “Black Lives Matter” sign on its exterior.
I wonder if we’re at a point at which, in terms of the overall political landscape, we start to see different sub-blocs develop within the black voting demographic.
Here’s a hypothesis: the voting monolith in the black population will dissolve when
1. Blacks start thinking about current conditions and issues; which means
2. They stop thinking about white people and who they are in relation to white people.
AD…so you’re saying “when hell freezes over”?
😉
Although…all kidding aside…I do have a thought that there is an older generation of black voting adults (somewhere between my age & a tad older than Neo) who remember what it was like to raise your kids in a 2-parent 2-job household & teach them to out-perform everyone else in the ‘hood because that’s where the jobs would come from…out-performing everyone else. These are folks who remember pre-Johnson life and know it was bad at times but they could go to the store without being beat up.
Blacks are owned by the Democratic Party,
They’re not. If anything, the reverse is true. Q What distinguishes Hellary and Sundown Joe from their competitors? A They were the preferred candidates of Southern blacks. (If I’m not mistaken, so were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bilge Clinton in 1992).
Here’s a hypothesis: blacks are owned by an abstract hostility to whites. It’s not a palpable hostility that means much of anything in mundane life, but it does mean something when people are thinking about civics and social relations. People have forgotten that Jimmy Carter – who had baggage on racial questions – scored at 5-1 advantage over Gerald Ford, who had no baggage. Now, Jerry Ford stood up on 19 August 1976 and made a great speech in front of the Republican National Convention. If any President since Kennedy has made a finer one, I haven’t seen it. At one point, he jabbed his finger and snarl-roared at the crowd “YOU are the people who pay the taxes and obey the laws..” To vote Republican in 1976 was to understand yourself as that person and that person above all when you are pondering the civic sphere. Not everybody does.
AD…so you’re saying “when hell freezes over”?
About 30% of the voting blacks cast ballots for Richard Nixon in 1960. Was hell frozen over in 1960?
who remember what it was like to raise your kids in a 2-parent 2-job household & teach them to out-perform everyone else in the ‘hood because that’s where the jobs would come from…out-performing everyone else. These are folks who remember pre-Johnson life and know it was bad but they could go to the store without being beat up.
As often as not these days, blacks live unobtrusively in neighborhoods where they are a minority. Two parent households are quite common, although they’re usually blended families.
Philip Sells – “I think there’s much more to be gained from truly fixing just one of the inner cities than there is in grappling with any number of other piddling, who-really-gives-a-hang stuff like this business about diversity in classical music that’s making the rounds in the chattering class right now.”
Bang on. There are millions of people coast to coast who are watching our cities get torn apart, regular people getting beat up and kids getting killed, and all they hear coming out of the “elites” mouths is bullshit about diversity in something that is irrelevant? And to boot, the Dem candidate is a senile fool.
Most of of the sane people who will get up and vote on November 3 are already at “WTF?!”, and they aren’t telling pollsters shit.
I sometimes work with a certain Black lawyer who has become my friend. He was a Hillary supporter. I said, “but what about her private server?” “Well, she’ll need a pardon, but after that she is good to go . . ” So I respect him.
Anyway, about 2.5 years ago, he just comes out with his observation that Black men are stepping away from Democrats. Something about a growing entrepreneur sentiment among the men. No way will the Black women turn away, he said.
AD…that 30% are the ones I was thinking might still be around with their memories of what it really takes to thrive in this world.
And the question I think Neo was asking is about “urban black” voters. The “unobtrusive blended families” are suburban if I read the demo-data correctly.
It’s only opinions but I tend to agree with Cicero at 6:28pm.
I’d bet that PDJT makes inroads in Black men but not Black women. But the election will depend on a lot of independent, non-ideological voters who don’t vote every election.
They came out in ’16 and put Trump over the top (barely). After RINOs held Trump back, didn’t repeal ObamaCare, etc, they sat out ’18 by and large and the Dems took the House.
TRUMP CHANGE, not chump change. Saw that on a billboard.
AD…that 30% are the ones I was thinking might still be around with their memories of what it really takes to thrive in this world.
The only people who cast a ballot in 1960 still around are over 80.
Zaphod, if there is anyone to the right of Lenin who is apathetic in November, then they are fools.
Art Deco, we 80 year olds still vote; and more than that we are working hard to de-program our younger generations. Hopefully, the values we tried to instill over the years still have roots.
Cicero, it may well be that the virtue signaling will backfire. My wife called me in to watch the Yankees-Nationals game, because she loves the Nats. Although I no longer care about professional sports since I cannot keep track of who is pandering, and who isn’t, I watched until I saw BLM enscribed behind the pitcher’s mound. I left the room. Am I out of step; or are the virtue signalers over stepping?
#walkaway is now big in the black community…
Time to #WalkAway: The Exodus of Blacks and Free Thinkers …
Democrats Hate Black People #walkaway – 247Sports.com
#WalkAway — Why I Will Never Vote For Democrats Again … (trans)
Will a Doc Convince Black Voters to #WalkAway from Dems?
Why these black former Democrats are voting for Trump in 2020
going to be interesting…
the silent majority is not as silent as we think when something forces them to act
A couple of years ago I was at McDonalds at one of those long tables with bar stools where people unknown to each other end up sitting at the same table. This being a conservative town, there was Fox News on the Tv at the end of the table. There was a young black man and a middle aged white guy at the table with me. The black guy stated he liked Trump’s “strength” . The white guy was against Trump and was afraid Trump would get us in another war. Trump needs to keep showing strength and not be pc.
@Oldflyer
I hope Trump gets over the line in November. I hope by a landslide so that the Left can’t steal it by ballot stuffing or queer the pitch with claims of Muh Russians. The vulgar indolent old narcissist is the last great hope and if he does nothing else at least a spanner in the works of the Left. And I mean every word of that seriously.
(As an aside, I recall being called out as a paid Trump Shill in this very forum about this time in 2016 :P)
As for Fools. You have something on me in years and experience, but I hesitate to short Fools and Foolishness. It’s becoming more and more easy to shape sentiment in very A/B tested, targeted ways… and the big brains in this field virtually *all* work for the other side.
FWIW, I’m going to be wagering heavily on Trump in Betfair, etc. if current odds trend stays same or widens. Trump is yuuuuuuuge expected value right now.
But all I can say about the man is that better he was elected than Clinton or probably any of the Republican primary contenders. All-in-all a disappointment.
Garnering some votes from the 15% of Americans who are black will not make a difference.
A few percent can make a big difference in those battleground states, many of which (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina) have substantial black populations. Of course not if they come at the expense of white votes, but I don’t see that happening. Not for the likes of Biden, and especially not with the Democrats’ embrace of race politics
Before all these American professional sports which are now reopening again eventually shut down again in the September push for national mail-in voting, there is going to be a ton of money made by organized crime in what essentially amounts to “game fixing” that will never, ever be exposed (as it would expose the duplicity of the powers that be in creating a virus “resurgence” by falsely elevating “confirmed cases” through false positive results). By bribing or pressuring the proper technologist at a testing facility or hospital, you can take the most important player or players off the field or court instantly before the biggest games. I have a feeling people made a ton of money on the Yankees tonight after the Nationals best player, who is asymptomatic of course, was bestowed a positive test right before the game and forced to sit out. Imagine when football starts up and these super-low specificity covid tests start forcing star quarterbacks to sit out a mere hour or so before the games kick off with their false positive results…gambler’s paradise, if you know the fix is coming in!
It’s only a little anecdote, but —
I attended a gun safety class a month ago to get my concealed carry permit. My town is about a hundred thousand people in northern whitebread, USA. Of the sixteen people in the class, seven were black people, including two women. People who recognize the need to protect themselves, and accept the responsibility of doing so, are generally more conservative.
Submitted for your examination. Texas Representative Louis Gohmert has submitted to the House a Resolution to ban all organisations associated with the racist Confederacy. It would therefore require the Democrat Party to change its name, tied like it is, to the Slavocracy.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/508759-gops-gohmert-introduces-resolution-that-would-ban-the-democratic-party
Among the outraged and nervous 1200 comments on the story at The Hill, comes this one: “Democrats voted for Emancipation Proclamation.”
Except that that was done as a Presidential Executive Order, and therefore was not passed as legislation requiring a vote. Ergo, no Democrats could have been involved.
Or there’s that sacred theory that the 1960s Civil Rights Acts resulted in the alleged Great Party Switch by those Wiley racists: Southern (racist) Democrats suddenly became Republicans! Except for the fact that only one Democrat in the House and one in the Senate actually did this (ie, less than one percent). (And real research by Carol Swain at Vanderbilt finds the “switch” among all Democrats occurring at far lower rates than 1% More like 0.2%.)
There is no reasoning with blind dogmatists. That’s all that one can say about this moment. It never changes.
“…ban…”
Hmm. I don’t know about this.
Nancy, Chuck and their merrye band of Voldemort wannabees are not exactly known for their sense of humor…
Been some time since I talked to urban anybody so I can’t speak from direct experience.
One resource which is not in danger of running out is the human propensity for blaming what happens to you on the most convenient target. Convenient in the sense that it reinforces an existing worldview.
When it’s exacerbated by politicians or other demagogues, it becomes even less related to reality.
Since “systemic racism” became like vapor–you can’t see it but it’s everywhere and anytime anything goes wrong it’s systemic racism and there’s no way to prove it isn’t–the idea that republicans are to blame for….whatever it is in the inner city is reinforced.
It’s better to blame greedy white shop owners for leaving the neighborhood than your own folks’ shoplifting and loss of traffic because of scary looking guys hanging around. And it helps to really make yourself BElIEVE.
Busting through that to any great extent is going to be a problem.
At least in Chicago, the inner city blacks and the transplant liberals will always vote Democrat. The native Chicagoans who live in the more sleepier neighborhoods middle class, mostly white and even Hispanic, may be reasoned and admit that more constructive thoughts have some legitimacy, but it’ll take some time. Mayor Lightfoot over the past three months or so has demonstrated that she thinks Trump is a fool, so she puts up a front as the protector of Chicago from his “foolishness.” All the inner city blacks and transplant liberals nod their head as they follow her into Lake Michigan. Meanwhile there was no BLM riots or protests for the shootings that happened over Father’s Day weekend. Though one man who does dress up in black on a regular basis, a Catholic priest, did help organize a demonstration to address gang violence in his South Side neighborhood. Not even the black Protestant churches who did march for BLM in June in the Bronzeville neighborhood marched.
@ Philip Sells: Is it this documentary you speak of? https://chicagoist.com/2016/09/07/the_bbc_made_a_mini_doc_on_violence.php
GRA, that’s the one.
Trump showed many of the African Americans that jobs are better than state support, and the dems been bribing them with the latter…
which reminds me of an old song:
How you gonna keep them down on the farm, after they seen Paris?
[The funny part of that song is that they are probably referring to Paris Kentucky not Paris France… or similar… but i could never find a write up on it]
The draft DNC manifesto, um, platform, seems to be the very model of intersectional critical race theory. It is very concerned with attracting Black voters— by blaming America and white voters— who don’t even rate a capitalization. Given pervasive postmodern leftist indoctrination, it could work.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-782a-d3de-ab7b-783b9b650000
Some years ago, a friend of a friend returned home after work in NYC and found her apartment broken into and her son stabbed and killed. If the Democrats become the party of crime and violence I don’t think it will win them votes with black people.
I honestly hope the blacks will vote for Trump in larger numbers than their usual voting for a democrat – any democrat.
But I doubt it.
If the democrats have very near certainty in certain groups ALWAYS voting for them in overwhelming numbers, it would be blacks, jewish folks and teachers.
The democrat nominee would have to be campaigning in a KKK outfit for blacks to think twice about who to vote for. They would probably stay home in this case to avoid having to vote for a Trump or any republican.
As for jewish voter, the dem candidate would have to wear a swastika on his/her sleeve to have jewish voters reconsider their party allegiance. In this case, they too would just stay home so as to avoid casting a vote for the “other” Hitler – Donald Trump – and the “other” Nazi party, the republicans.
As for the teachers, well , what can one say; they will vote for ANY democrat, irrespective of their political ideology.
By the way, check out the campaign contributions of the hedge fund , Wall Street, investment banking folks . Ironically, these “hyper- capitalists” for the most part support liberal progressives or socialists.
Think George Soros.
Trump showed many of the African Americans that jobs are better than state support, and the dems been bribing them with the latter…
Yes, the antithesis of the so-called “Great Society” where perpetual smoothing functions (e.g. welfare) were a first-order forcing of progressive corruption, dysfunction, and broken homes. Men, in particular, are broken in their eyes, and in their women’s eyes, too. Instead of shared/shifted responsibility, men and women, and society are more productive with affordable and available. The Progressives’ wicked solution: selective-child a.k.a. reproductive rites under Planned Parenthood, only served to exacerbate the costs. Cruel and unusual but with precedents.
The new plantation is the inner city where liberalism reigns–and has for decades. Blacks are placed in low quality government run schools where, instead of nourishing their souls with good, beautiful, and true things, they are fed a thin gruel of resentment, anger, and victimology. Drugs, guns, violence, gangs, no father’s, etc. Even the mother’s womb is not a safe place! And every election cycle RACISM is used to exploit their anger so that they turn out to vote for the Democrat. As Rush Limbaugh says, the Democrat Party needs an underclass for it to survive.
Since “systemic racism” became like vapor–you can’t see it but it’s everywhere
Diversity (i.e. class-based taxonomic system, process, or judgment from low-information attributes) is a progressive condition, but not in the way they characterize it. Similarly, they attempted the same with their assertion of rape… rape-rape culture to socially justify the Progressives’ wicked solution, Mengele clinics, and other motives.
John Tyler:
Black people vote Democratic nearly monolithically – usually above 90%. Jews are much less united, although they definitely trend Democratic (and of course, by “Jews” we are talking about ethnicity rather than religious beliefs). In recent years, Jews have voted for Republicans at rates between a quarter and a third of Jewish voters, for the most part. (See this).
I believe that Trump will get some significant portion of the black vote but will it be enough?
On the Monday after the George Floyd murder during Fox News “The Five” Lawrence Jones made a huge point about the Republicans. He stated that if they wanted black votes then they needed to “show up”. He was referencing the fact that the Republican party by and large has abandoned the black community and by default they vote for the Democrats who treat them with benign neglect until election time.
I believe that is true. If the Republican PARTY had true organizing efforts in the black community I believe they would be willing to change. But that takes concerted time and effort. Even though they recognize and appreciate Trump’s efforts to help the black community does that translate to a vote when the rest of the down ballot ticket is Democrat which is what they see and know.
I believe that Trump will do very well with black men but black women by and large are hard core democrat from my experience. Even well educated ones.
After all they are the beneficiaries of the welfare state and not black men.
Another thing is when the Republicans do run a black candidate the black community is usually dismissive about it. A good example is John James in Michigan. I talked with a well educated black woman about him and how I was impressed with him. However she dismissed him by saying he was “too white” for her. His failing, he married a white woman. That made him ipso facto a white person as he made his choice to be in the white community. She didn’t say it explicitly but that is what I concluded from her statements. I was very surprised by that but on reflection I can see why she said that. There is a paucity of educated black men that educated black women can marry and for a black man to marry a white woman is a betrayal of sorts. Articles have been written about this so it is a real feeling. I know quite a few educated black women that are frustrated by this situation as frequently they are single unless they married down socio-economically.
In conclusion, the black communities are ready for a change but there hasn’t been a serious SUSTAINED effort by the Republican party or any other to be in their community to engage and fight for their vote. The black community is traditional value in it’s orientation (opposes gay marriage, abortion etc.) but vote Democratic as it is their only real choice. Their votes are there to be had but someone has to go work to get them.
“Their votes are there to be had but someone has to go work to get them.” – Sparticus
So true, and I think President Trump was really going after them, as huxley pointed out. But, the black voters in America who want something other than Democrats all the time are like Dershowitz: they don’t really consider the Republican party as an alternative for them, for whatever reasons — which are more likely personal & demographic, but also ideological, when they agree with some GOP policies but prefer the Democrats for others.
A real upheaval would see both parties split up and voters recombining into at least 4 quadrants based on the left-right axes of economic and social values, with maybe 2 more for the Control Left and the Alt Right.
As for black women staying tied to the Julia-strings of the Democrats: having the cancel cultists going after Margaret Sanger might be a game changer. I would wager that few to zero LIV black women eve heard about her racist character, but they might know she has been a big name for Planned Parenthood, and might start rethinking their allegiance to the murder factory.
https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/07/21/planned-parenthood-new-york-cancelling-margaret-sanger-supporting-eugenics/
Would any Republicans, Trump included, be able to exploit that opening?
I don’t know.
Normally, my posture is to call for a “statute of limitations” on any organization that has cycled out all it’s old reprobates, hence I don’t really approve of tarring a group with its progenitors’ sins. However, I hope Rep. Gohmert’s proposal gets some media traction on the black social circuit (it won’t in the MSM, of course).
PS: Get woke, go broke.
https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/07/24/wsj-ae-lost-half-audience-canceling-live-pd/
Black Vote for President:
year: D R I (Dem Rep Ind)
2000: 90 8 2
2004: 88 11 1
2008: 95 4 1
2012: 93 6 1
2016: 88 8 4
https://blackdemographics.com/culture/black-politics/
No one is arguing that Trump is going to push blacks into voting majority Republican. The question is whether Trump can increase his 8% number from 2016 and what that means.
You’ve got to like the trend since 2008 — 4% 6% 8%.
If Trump holds or increases his 2016 base and adds a few more points of black votes, it matters.
IMO the more crucial issue is how well Trump holds on to whites. I’d like to think he’ll do fine, even better, but this year has been so crazy on top of three years of non-stop, brutal politics from radical white Democrats, I just don’t know if whites are keeping their counsel close or whether they have been infected by relentless Trump Derangement.
Perhaps the most crucial bloc to watch is white female Trump voters. Massive pressure has been brought against them for the heinous crime of electing Trump.
A current narrative is that white working-class women are deserting Trump:
–“Working-class white women are turning on Trump”
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-26/behind-trumps-sharp-slump-white-women-who-stuck-with-him-before-are-abandoning-him-now
It’s the LA Times and they could well be gaslighting us some more, but it’s possible.
Blacks and Jewish people voting democrat is a odd political form of Stockholm syndrome… (the idea of they would never be what they are today without the oppressors? just silly musing)…
If the democrats have very near certainty in certain groups ALWAYS voting for them in overwhelming numbers, it would be blacks, jewish folks and teachers.
Primary school teachers are overwhelmingly Democrat.
They also tend to be overwhelmingly young, female and educated (officially, but in actuality quite lightly). In fact, I doubt that being a teacher makes that much difference — it’s a demographic that is pretty solidly Dem anyway.
High school teachers are quite different. Plenty of them are either Republican or swing voters.
They are older, closer to 50% male and most have degrees that require some intelligence and work.
Making a point about A&E losing half their audience: that big brouhaha over Hillary winning the popular vote is always tossed out as if she somehow got 90% and Trump stole the Electoral College anyway.
She got 48.02% and he got 45.93%.
Do the math.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php