I’m getting tired of people playing fast and loose with statistics
Reading that title, you might say, “Oh yeah, neo? Get used to it, because it will always happen.”
I know, I know. But with this COVID thing, it’s more obvious because nearly everyone is crunching numbers and opining. And that includes me.
I try not to make egregious errors. And I try to go wherever the actual numbers lead me. That’s why this sort of thing makes me gnash my teeth, even if I basically agree with the position of the author:
As we, in the land of the free and the home of the brave, respond to the Wuhan pandemic by hunkering down, whimpering at the thought of society reopening, and searching in vain for a new set of brown trousers to wear with our fashionable face mask, an interesting experiment is underway in Europe. In Sweden, which has done basically nothing at all in response to the virus, the death rate per one million of population remains significantly lower than American states that have instituted the most draconian regulations.
Yes, a few of them. But far from all of them.
Which states have instituted “the most draconian regulations”? I would say that Washington state is way up there on that measure, as is California. The death rate in Sweden is 200 per million as of now. The death rate per million in Washington state is 95 at the moment, and in California it is 37. But it’s not that simple, either, because Michigan is very stringent and is at 299, which is somewhat higher than Sweden. New York is astronomical, but however stringent it might be at present it certainly wasn’t stringent early on. A friend in Ohio tells me that Ohio is strict as well, and I see on that same chart that Ohio is at 56, whereas Florida – not all that strict comparatively speaking – is at 47.
All over the place.
It’s also hard to measure strictness, because there are so many factors involved. I’ve looked at several articles purporting to do that, and haven’t found them all that helpful. Here’s one of the simplest ones. It’s from a month ago – which was an important time for instituting such measures, supposedly – and it lists California, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin as most comprehensive, with Mississippi and Oklahoma as least.
Again, if you look at the death figures for those states, there’s wide variation. I’ve already discussed California, Michigan, Ohio, and Washington. Illinois has a death rate of 122 per million, Indiana is at 106, West Virginia 16, and Wisconsin is 44. Relatively hang-loose Mississippi is at 67 and Oklahoma at 46.
The New York metropolitan area, including parts of urban New Jersey and the suburbs in Connecticut, is one of the very few areas of the country that exceeds Sweden in deaths, and it exceeds it by a lot (1060 for New York state, 431 in Connecticut, and 604 for New Jersey, with the vast bulk of the deaths in the New York metropolitan area). In fact, without the NYC area, the US would have one of the lowest death rates in the developed world.
The only other states that exceed Sweden’s total are Michigan at 299 (mostly Detroit), Louisiana at 343 (mostly New Orleans), and Massachusetts (mostly Boston) at 319, as well as DC at 203 (very similar to Sweden). The urban pattern is clear, and yet there are many US cities that have nowhere near that total – including blue cities, by the way, if you’re tempted to say it’s blue cities that are the culprits.
I’m not saying Sweden shouldn’t be doing what it’s doing. I am watching Sweden with interest, and it may indeed be that similar policies would have been better to have been adopted here in all but the big hotspots. Problem is, we didn’t know in advance what the hotspots would be.
Presently the statistics aren’t pointing with any significant clarity to a pattern that can tell us what is best to do in terms of preventing more deaths, although it is clear that there has already been a great deal of economic damage and hardship as a result of those policies. The damage isn’t limited to economics, either; it almost certainly involves other health costs as well as mental health issues.
[NOTE: I’m not really intent on picking on streiff, who wrote that Red State article I quoted at the beginning. He is by no means the worst offender. It’s something I see just about everywhere, and it grates on me whenever I spot it. I try not to do it myself, but it isn’t easy and perhaps I’m guilty of it at times, too.]
[NOTE II: Also please see the “ADDENDUM” to this post from yesterday, in which I tried to present a clearer view of what the pre-existing-condition statistics involving COVID deaths are all about.]
It would be great if they were, but can one actually declare that Sweden is out of the woods yet?
Barry Meislin:
Certainly not.
But unless Sweden suddenly has a vast explosion of this when everyone else’s rates are going down, it does appear that their approach would have probably been okay for most of the world.
Problem is, you don’t know in advance. Would it have been okay as well for Italy or Spain or NYC?
The reliance on incomplete, inconsistent, inaccurate data to make massive society changing maybe even wrecking decisions may go down as the most outrageous policy decision ever.
I live in California and it’s strict for businesses and going to the beach but many people are out and about walking, running and cycling. Construction is going on in many neighborhoods and gardeners are out doing lawns. The traffic is light but not non-existent.
The strictest I have heard of is Spain where people have to get permission to go out and then go through a police check point to get doused down with a solution. Sad to say Spain has a rate of 474 deaths per million. The US is at 150. It would seem – maybe – that really strict measures may not do what we hope. However, letting businesses re-open may be too far the other way.
I eagerly watch Sweden as well. But even if they succeed it might be an outlier since the rates in each country [and in some cases each state] are not consistent or easy to predict.
‘However, letting businesses re-open may be too far the other way’
Maybe if we keep them all closed long enough a large enough number will never re-open then people won’t be able to go to them or work in them then we will all live forever.
I know it’s bad form to write a comment unrelated to the original post, but I just read an excellent article on the critical topic of COVID-19 vaccines. Apologies to Neo and her readers for not sticking to the topic at hand.
About a week ago, in the journal “Science Translational Medicine,” Derek Lowe summarized the prospects for a coronavirus vaccine (https://tinyurl.com/r4myf2n).
Lowe’s post is apolitical, and most of it can be understood by a non-specialist reader. He briefly outlines the different research teams, types of vaccines, vaccine efficacy, vaccine safety, and vaccine logistics — i.e. manufacturing and distribution.
This is a dense post with so much information that it’s hard to summarize in a blog comment. Please consider reading it.
One thing I’d like to mention is the timeline. The current record for vaccine development is five years, which was set by the Ebola vaccine. Typically, vaccine development takes at least ten years. Since this isn’t a typical situation, corners will have to be cut on safety. Even so, the prospect of a long timeline makes it clear that we also need effective treatment options for COVID-19. It’s going to be many years before billions of people are vaccinated. To be blunt, some of us who read this blog will probably be dead before the vaccination job is complete. I, for one, don’t want to spend the rest of my life under house arrest.
Okay, politics rears its ugly head. Sorry.
And now, back to your regularly-scheduled programming.
Another Off Topic comment:
Based on our last two shopping forays, the supply chain in the western suburb part of Northeastern Illinois is pretty much back to normal.
Everything was at some decent stocking level.
And except for shopping limits on paper goods and sanitation supplies there were no rationing limits.
I do wonder how things are in the poorer areas of the state.
I have not crunched the numbers on this, but it would seem to me that there is an overwhelming correlation between coronavirus deaths and population density.
If you want a fair comparison, choose a state or another country with a similar population density.
There is also a cultural aspect. Sweden does not have the social kissing and hugging that Spain and Italy have. Their culture already has built in social distancing. So, there is another factor that needs to be normalized.
And, we need to adjust the numbers for the amount of time since the first entry of the virus into the population.
How many other factors? Climate?
So, Neo is right. The comparison used by the author is meaningless.
I would add to Neo’s points about Sweden that the leadership of Sweden did not “do nothing.” There were a number of rules and recommendations put in place. They just mostly avoided shutting down businesses forcibly.
I had also read that someone who had driven around in Sweden and Norway said that they saw moderately more traffic in Norway in lockdown than in Sweden. Just because restaurants, bars, and swimming pools are open doesn’t mean that they are doing good business.
I do like the Swedish approach and think that Trump feels the need to castigate Sweden because their approach was much less onerous than his. But, that doesn’t mean I’m right or that Sweden’s approach was best.
_____
Off topic news: NY state has done random sampling within the state using antibody tests. I don’t recall the sample number, but the result is that 13.9% of people have the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Governor Cuomo urges caution because they only sampled people they found outdoors, and that could bias the results.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
We really have very little idea what the real rates are. It depends on how many people are actually tested, how accurately cause of death is determined.
(It’s clear that there is not an insignificant number of deaths being attributed to the virus that are likely caused by the underlying problems. Does someone with Stage 4 metastatic liver cancer who contacts the virus for of the virus or from complications with the cancer? I really should go back and look at my parents’ death certificates. I know what the died from; but I don’t recall what their deaths were attributed to on their death certificates — the source of mortality statistics. BTW, my dad died of IPF, and my mother died from malpractice, which I’m pretty sure is not in her death certificate.)
Anyhow…
It’s really hard to compare numbers when that numbers aren’t really comparable.
Tuvea,
Not that way in western WA. Went to store here earlier and they had no toilet paper or paper towels at all and very little, soup and pasta. Had some meat but nowhere close to normal amounts and they had no hot dogs or bacon. They were somewhat low on cleaning supplies but not out completely.
On the other hand chips/candy aisle was fully stocked. Produce also appeared about normal.
Maybe it was just the time of day but was far from back to normal here anyway.
“I’m not really intent on picking on streiff”
You should. You really should. This is the same sort of thinking that we saw from the Right back in the 1990s when virtually every conservative in the country loudly and confidently predicted that Bill Clinton’s tax hikes would destroy the economy and cause a recession. And no, there were no caveats like “Unless Republicans win control of Congress and cut a budget deal with Clinton.”
They were 100% sure Clinton’s tax hike would crush the economy. They were 100% wrong. And virtually none of them learned a damn thing from that.
It’s important not to just put your brain on hold and uncritically accept what the experts tell you. Honestly, though, it’s even more important to not filter everything through an ideological lens where every time you’re right it’s a triumph for the ages and every time you’re wrong gets flushed down the memory hole.
Mike
Cornflour:
Posted on the BBC website a few hours ago — “Coronavirus: First patients injected in UK vaccine trial”:
MBunge:
Let me repeat it to make it crystal clear, and I’ll add some emphasis to help:
In other words, just to be crystal clear – I’m not picking on him in particular, because it’s everywhere – right, left, in-between.
Wow! In the Trump briefing happening now, the undersecretary of the DHS is discussing results from a DHS virology lab.
In moderate summer weather, 70 – 75 deg. F, 80% humidity, the virus can survive on surfaces (no surface type detail) for 6 hours, in the shade.
In the same conditions as above, the virus can survive only for 2 minutes in direct sunlight.
It’s also hard to measure strictness, because there are so many factors involved.
Another problem is that lockdown policies aren’t random, but in response to outbreaks. So correlations are misleading. Like correlations between crime rates and gun ownership or prison populations.
Mike is concern trolling.
You hear the media saying “the virus isn’t going to disappear. It will always be with us.”
Not so, necessarily.
If the R0 gets less than one (each patient infects fewer than one other person)then we have an infinite geometric series with each term multiplied by a fraction(e.g. 7/8×7/8×7/8….) and after a few terms of this we have almost zero patients infected with a virus which has no chance of reproducing itself. The cell then gets rid of viral protein and RNA detritus through its ubiquitin and proteasome mechanisms, and, alas, no virus remains. If the virus is a retrovirus, which Sars-CoV-2 is not, it may end up incorporated into the DNA helix of the patient’s genome and here, it could stay through eternity. And we do see in our genomes remnants of these as transposons all over the place in the chromosome. Isn’t that bizarre?
I am waiting for the oxygen delivery as my husband will be discharged as soon as I receive the home instructions and I arrive to pick him up. I spoke to a nurse on the floor and she told me to call first as the staff intends to line the hallway in honor of his survival. He gave permission for the hospital to do a video about his case. This is truly a miracle and we are grateful for every prayer and blessing. He only needs some oxygen support and no medications. We are humbled and grateful for this hoped-for outcome.
Statistics can so easily be twisted. People need to be very careful, and many commentators aren’t careful.
Sharon W:
Thank you so much for the update on Doug, his expected discharge and the hospital staff. This has been the best news of the day so far. Blessings in Christ for you all.
So now Trump says they may extend the social distancing guidelines that were supposed to end next week until early summer or later. It’s getting damn hard to defend his response to this.
“I have not crunched the numbers on this, but it would seem to me that there is an overwhelming correlation between coronavirus deaths and population density.”
I wish I could find where I read this morning, but mass transit is also correlated with the virus fatality, which would explain NYC.
Talked to our daughter in Atlanta today. She expects the Georgia opening to be mainly in the rural areas outside of Atlanta, and that most of Atlanta will stay voluntarily closed until they see what happens. Geezz…common sense.
“I have not crunched the numbers on this, but it would seem to me that there is an overwhelming correlation between coronavirus deaths and population density.”
Here’s one more correlation.
COVID-19 deaths :
Trump-voting states 12,072
Hillary-voting states 35,410
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Yesterday’s totals
Utah is currently at 10 deaths/million, but that will go up before the pandemic ends. Compared to some states our response was pretty mild, no lockdown, but schools were closed and no elective surgeries until this week. Social distancing was encouraged, but not enforced. About 2% of the population has been tested and serology testing has begun. I’m very curious as to what the serology testing will show.
Trump just continues to give cover to these tyrannical governors. He’s been holed up in the White House surrounded by death cultists like Fauci for so long that he has no feel for the real world out here.
Common sense would have been and still is to totally quarantine aged people who are at highest risk, deliver food and medications to them and not allow visitors. These people are a huge percentage of those dying, along with those with the underlying comorbidities that are most dangerous, especially obesity.
NY reports that 94% of deaths there have had two underlying morbidities, regardless of age, but the median age is in the 70’s.
Yet we threw out of work, so far, 24 million people who are not in any meaningful way fatally at risk, plus destroyed many small businesses and many hospitals put at financial risk around the country.
Using one size fits all to make entire states lock down rather than the major cities with hotspots ( think NYC metro area vs upstate NY), and small low population states treated the same as dense states is what’s really moronic and destructive.
Michigan and Sweden have almost identical population totals. Michigan imposed draconian lockdown discipline vs Sweden’s relatively lax approach. With respect, Neo, Michigan isn’t “somewhat higher than Sweden” in deaths per million, its 50% higher. One must be careful of shading with statistics, mustn’t one? I’ll take the Sweden approach for most of our country, thank you.
Multiple studies, Germany, Santa Clara County, LA County, NY state and city, Boston homeless shelter and others using anti-body blood test show many times more, orders of magnitude more, people were infected and were/are asymptomatic.
Three things flow from this:
1. The most at risk, elderly and comorbidity populations, can catch this from more people than otherwise thought, thus need strict protection. Nursing homes etc especially. These are the people that die most of the time if they catch it.
2. The fatality rate is turning out to be right around that of flu (deaths divided by infections).
3. Many people can be sent back to work, millions, as they’ve had the virus already.
Instead we’re destroying people out of media sponsored and bureaucrat swallowed panic.
Sharon W, thank you for telling us your wonderful news. And how lovely to hear that the hospital staff plans to applaud his exit. There’s a video of the same thing happening at our little tiny local hospital — staff lining the halls and applauding and cheering all the way through the hospital and out the door as one of our (fortunately few) local patients leaves for home. Brings tears.
Welcome home to your husband. To his health, and to yours.
Sharon W-
Thanks for the update. That’s great news! We’ve been praying for Doug and your family.
I wonder if there are going to be facets of this shut-down experience that we are going to look back on and say “that was sort of good for us. I liked that part.”’
E.g. my wife loves the quieting of the city noises, the clear skies, the less pollution. “It feels like the fifties.” Could we have less anxiety? Less autism? Less COPD or asthma? Less rheumatoid arthritis or polymyalgia?
Are there things that we are going to try to repeat and copy, that we liked, when all this hibernation stuff is over? Is the weather going to be cooler for awhile because of the @30% reduction in CO2 emissions?
This is a large social experiment. What else do people predict? It’s a crisis that should not go to waste. It’s easy to be mindful of what is happening to us.
Good lord, we can’t even watch the NFL draft without having to hear from Fauci. This guy is on an unbelievable power trip.
Griffin,
Fauci is not a ‘death cultist’. LOL. He’s an experienced American physician and immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) since 1984. Experience is a good thing – not some deep state conspiracy that somehow forces Trump to do things. Trump listens to Fauci because he tells it like it is. He’s one of the few who doesn’t tell Trump what he wants to hear – but without bruising his ego. Real honesty is something most of us appreciate. But that said, Fauci is not forcing Trump’s hand. Neither are governors. I am reminded of the protestors in Texas who blamed Fauci rather than Trump or their Republican governor – both who actually have the power to open or close the state – or at least strongly suggest it. But no, they blame Fauci. Makes no sense.
Bill:
Yes, “one” must be careful with statistics, and careful with words. I am careful with both. “Somewhat” means “somewhat“:
It is typically used as a qualifier – not very big, not very small, somewhere in between. I used it in this case to contrast it with all the other states I was talking about, which were either much higher or much lower – except for DC at 203, which I described as “very similar to Sweden.” And indeed, it IS very similar to Sweden’s 200. I also, in the sentence immediately following my mention of Michigan’s 299, described New York’s figure as “astronomical.” In addition, since I included the numbers for Sweden and every other state I mentioned, any reader can see exactly and precisely what I’m talking about. But I stand by “somewhat.”
I will add that your adding that “Michigan isn’t ‘somewhat higher than Sweden’ in deaths per million, its 50% higher” is, while technically true, misleading. The reason I say that is that if you look at the charts of different countries and different states and their enormously different death tolls per million, the difference between 200 and 299 is really not all that much at all, although indeed when expressed as a percentage it is 50% more. But in terms of states and countries and their death tolls, 200 and 299 are roughly in the same basic ballpark.
It is another pet peeve of mine how often illness statistics are expressed in terms of percentages, which can be very misleading. For example, if an illness has the incidence of 5 per million in one population and 10 per million in another, and a writer wants to scare people, the writer often reports that the rate is double in that second population and never reveals the actual numbers. The reader therefore has no idea what is being referred to in absolute terms, and thinks it to be quite alarming. However, if the reader hears that the risk is 5 per million vs. 10 per million, the effect is quite different.
Well, Montage being reasonable didn’t last too long. How would Montage know who tells Trump what and how Trump’s ego takes it? Is it truths from the anonymous sources or the fly on the wall?
Would a progressive know what honesty is? They seem to have an aversion to facts and reality. What is this “real” honesty you speak of, is it a special progressive honesty, aka, sophistry?
Montage, don’t you think that nearly everyone in the US knows by now Fauci’s background and history, and that would include the low brows who read Neo?
Gringo,
LMAO…
Another good example of the axiom that “Correlation is not proof of cause and effect.” In this case, population density also correlates with a tendency to vote for Democrats.
Of course Sweden’s death rate per million is going to be higher now because they didn’t try to stretch out (flatten the curve) the deaths from the virus. Their people die up front and all the lockdowns die later.
Obviously Fauci is not a death cultist in the literal sense but he has pushed the country into a policy that will cause untold numbers of suicides, drug addictions and other horrible personal tragedies all in an effort to bend the curve or is it relieve stress on hospitals or is it find a vaccine or is it have nobody sick. Who knows the goalposts move daily. And all on incomplete, inaccurate, questionable data.
Trump and the governors are ultimately responsible but this unelected bureaucrat has pushed policies that have caused trillions of dollars of economic damage with very little evidence that many lives have been saved.
Sharon W. what a gift to bring your husband home and prayers for a speedy recovery. I lost a brother in law a couple of months ago to what we now think is the Corvid-19, he had spent Christmas on the East Coast with part of the family who had just returned from Asia in an afflicted area, he was older, 79 and might have been one first in Texas to fall from this stuff.
This is an ongoing battle and we are all in the danger zone which we have not had to deal with, until now, in our lifetimes. Some will die and most will live and we will get through this one way or the other, that’s the way life stuff works. They, media and parts of the government are playing their games, political and the embedded forever government employees they want to protect their influence and power and know they will always have their jobs.
As for me, tomorrow morning I am putting my American Flag out in front of my home and I will keep on flying it until this is over and it might take a long time until we know it, indeed, is over.
neo:
double in that second population and never reveals the actual numbers
We see this all the time in cancer stories: “Doing X will triple your chance of getting cancer Y!!!” When that means that the chance went from 2 per million to 6 per million. Yawn. But you inevitably have to dig very deep to find that out.
Or when they say “increases your risk by 50 percent!” meaning 1% -> 1.5%.
Montage,
I have put more blame on Trump than just about any of the regular commenters that are not trolls like you on this site. I came out weeks ago and said I couldn’t vote for him again because of this and got accused of promoting socialism by our kindly host of all people. But he seems to have been totally coopted by a small cabal of bureaucrat doctors and does whatever they recommend all stop.
I want him to succeed but he has totally lost perspective and balance on this disaster.
Sharon W. That’s great news. May you and Doug return to a normal life and be as bored as the rest of us.
As to Sweden: It might work there, but they’re Swedes. We’ll never know how much culture determines the outcome.
Sharon W., thanks for that wonderful news. Thanks be to God!
And it’s wonderful for the hospital staff, too. These are rough times for them. A success really lifts their spirits.
Re TommyJay at 6:19, I’ve wondered if the warmer climate in CA could be why it was not hit as hard as NY.
I think a lot of people are thinking “better safe than sorry” and so don’t want to re-open too soon. Also CYA, which is normal and not intrinsically bad.
But I totally hear the arguments that the economic consequences may be horrible. This includes the massive spending- just what we need??
Could God be punishing or disciplining us?
On a happier note, great to hear about Doug, Sharon W! Still praying for you both.
Mr Bunge and Montage:
From Powerlineblog.com not some right wing half-wit nutter web site:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the-models-were-wrong-does-anyone-care.php
My own guess is that the amount of time people spend outdoors makes a difference: more outdoors, less infection. Of course, that is just one of many possibilities, but it may account for places like Hawaii and Australia having such low rates.
That is wonderful news, Sharon W!
Bill M,
“Their people die up front and all the lockdowns die later.”
That is Sweden’s assumption. Thus far, it appears to be correct, but it’s bad news for the U.S. if things do play out that way. However, if warmer, more humid weather drives down rates, maybe we’ll minimize deaths in wave 2, but have enough exposed by late Autumn for herd immunity?
Griffin
I appreciate your view. At least you do put some of your criticism on Trump.
Om
LOL, Powerline is a right wing opinion site. It’s not unbiased news. Of course, maybe nothing much is unbiased news these days but linking to Powerline is like someone linking to Daily Kos. They don’t try to give a reasonable viewpoint – they preach to their choir. But their view on the link you provided is something we all know. Sure the models aren’t always correct. Predicting is tough business even if you have good statistics. Should we open the country because some models are off? Feel free. Most Americans will likely wait a bit. [Although I’m on record saying I’m eager to see how Sweden comes out of this.]
Oliver T:
Most of California was quite cool in February, March, and even some of April. And northern California, where it was cooler than in southern California, did not have particularly higher rates of COVID.
I too am interested to see how how Sweden plays out. I think that (in retrospect) there have been a lot of mistakes made about the best strategies for dealing with this pandemic. I am not blaming anyone. But there is going be a need for an honest self-assessment all over the world of what worked and what didn’t. Unfortunately, the political climate doesn’t lend itself to that sort of self-analysis.
87.2% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
If the R0 is high and there is a high percentage of the population infected, then the act of contact/tracing is meaningless because you get too many contacts and too many traces to be able to conduct this approach. You end up with an impossible job. Extrapolate: suppose in NY 30% of the population of 20 million had antibodies and the R was 3. Your investigators would have the task of contacting 7 million infectees and 20 million contacts. Thus, everyone in the state is either a patient or former patient or a contact.
Thus, the strategy of going to contact tracing is not necessarily the correct one if you are watching a state that has gone off strict social isolation and it gets into a troublesome flare up. You may have to go back to social isolation again if the percentage with antibodies is high.
linking to Powerline is like someone linking to Daily Kos.
You keep making these defoliating remarks. Tell your handlers to send you better talking points.
It seems like here in WA anyway the latest moving of the goalposts has landed on contact tracing. Now we can’t re- open until we have the ability to contact trace large amounts of people. Even getting the National Guard involved. Who knows what the next movement of the goalposts will be.
Montage:
Powerlineblog,com has an opinion and is not an unbiased news site? I’m shocked, I didn’t notice (LOL). How droll and sophisticated you prove to be (in your mind anyway). Do you have any other “real” honesty to share with the peons? Maybe a list of your unbiased news sources? Crickets?
Griffin:
I noticed that contact tracing cluster “f” in King Jay’s “plan.” Don’t see how that could ever work or if it is intended to work given that the Wuhan virus seems to infect a lot of people who don’t show symptoms. The IHME is going to give witch doctors and shamans a much better reputation.
I know, we will just test everyone over and over and over. Sort of like being lost in the forest; just keep walking and checking the moss on the trees for direction.
TommyJay, the DHS report was interesting, and does appear that sunlight, temp and humidity are kyptonite to the virus.
Detroit is a poor city, heavily black with obesity and diabetes problems. They have poor health outcomes in normal times, 83rd of the 83 counties. Obesity is a big factor in death rates. Life expectancy in Detroit is around that of North Koreans, according to the Detroit news.
om,
If we are charitable and say all these people in power are really doing what they think is right then it seems to me that they have become totally lost in the weeds. This is from Trump on down to governors and mayors and it is not allowed to ask questions like ‘why are we doing all this for this virus this time?’ or have serious talks about how 7,000 people die everyday in this country of all kinds of different illnesses and accidents no matter what we do so why are we acting like we can prevent people from dying of this virus?
And if they start in on hospitals remind them they said that before and it didn’t happen in fact the exact opposite happened. Ask them why they are sacrificing other people’s health at the expense of the potential virus victims.
If we only had a serious journalist class in this country.
Also how about asking why economic advisors aren’t given as much weight as these voodoo epidemiologists. The economic impact of this will hit many times more people than the virus. Why don’t they seem to matter?
Shouldn’t Larry Kudlow and other economic advisors be just as important as Fauci and his fortune tellers?
Montage
LOL, Powerline is a right wing opinion site. It’s not unbiased news. Of course, maybe nothing much is unbiased news these days but linking to Powerline is like someone linking to Daily Kos.
Suggestion: Using your analytical powers,do a fisking of a Powerline article.
Posted on April 23, 2020 by John Hinderaker in Coronavirus
The Models Were Wrong. Does Anyone Care?
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the-models-were-wrong-does-anyone-care.php
Everyone who has been paying attention knows that the epidemiological models on which the current shutdown mania is based have been proved to be wrong, wrong, wrong. Yet, zombie-like, they continue to influence our ill-informed policymakers.
A reader who prefers to remain anonymous despite her apparent qualifications writes:
[snip]
10,000 deaths out of 15% of NYC (1.2 million) points to an infection fatality rate around .008, very much in the ballpark of seasonal flu.
Sharon W at 6:40 pm,
God bless you — and husband. What great progress!
With such wide variety in the numbers of deaths per capita, uncertainty about the validity of the numbers, and broad variety in the shutdown regimes with no clear correlations or trends, that demonstrates to me that shutting down and social distancing does not affect the spread and severity of the disease.
Morning update: Just to add to some more stats. This will be the last one for awhile. Unless something earth shaking comes up, I will not be doing anymore. It seems to have outlived its usefulness. The only item of note is that “serious cases” ended its 9 day plateau with an increase of 7%.
As I mentioned previously, our esteemed governor, lemming-like, has mandated mask use. First we don’t need masks, the we do, then maybe we only in certain situations, then all the time. Just to iject a bit of sardonic humor, take a look at how serious our “leaders” are about this issue:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/the_house_of_representatives_fails_at_mask_wearing_101.html
that demonstrates to me that shutting down and social distancing does not affect the spread and severity of the disease.
You mean the virus just migrates from person to person like magic.
As I mentioned previously, our esteemed governor, lemming-like, has mandated mask use.
Japan has had about 300 deaths from this to date. Why do you think that is?
Having retired from the data business (statistician/programmer-analyst/DBA), I must point out:
1. Everybody wants to present the slick visualizations, pronounce doom, and point off into the distance knowingly. Nobody wants to do the data scrubbing.
2. A fool with a tool is still a fool.
3. With increased computing power and better tools, we can make faulty analyses faster then ever, with more enthusiasm.
Art Deco:
Go live in Japan and get some ground truth, and statistics.
You make a very good point, Neo, and you’re by no means alone in being driven nuts by it. I hate it when people play fast & loose with the numbers and facts, just to make a political point, and I do see it across the political spectrum (although I admit that I see it faster from people on the other side).
We see it in other issues too. American gun control is a big one; I keep seeing the argument about blue states vs. red states, as though gun violence was something very simple with a single cause and an easy cure. It’s not. And similarly, what works here might well not work elsewhere, and vice versa… which does not stop pundits from proclaiming that we must drop everything and implement the policies of a Favorite Other Country, be it on the subject of quarantining or gun control or something else.
It should be clear that what works for a country of heavy smokers, with a high percentage of elderly people, will not apply the same way for a very different population. And there are dozens more relevant variables, at least. And I’m struck by how our beloved pundits, for all their demands that we immediately adopt the polices of a Favorite Other Country, never think of suggesting that there are things we do well, that perhaps other countries could consider emulating. (If we’re all supposed to learn from those who do better than we do, why not?)
One other thought. Europe has a LOT of elderly people who smoke (and are this doubly at risk from COVID-19). They also have a lot of young people, who are recent immigrants from the Middle East, and are NOT significantly at risk.
I suspect we’ll see some serious demographic changes in Europe in the coming years. We’ve been seeing the signs for a while – see Mark Steyn’s “America Alone” – but COVID-19 will accelerate the trends.
It is almost certain that a large majority of the U.S. population is taking this situation very seriously. When one reads about Sweden, their equivalent of Fauci isn’t stating things differently than Fauci; the difference is he, and the country’s leaders trust their citizens to behave sensibly given the information.
America isn’t Sweden, but by now I think we have enough people paying attention to trust the public. Whether Governors open their states completely up today, or start a phase in 1 month from now, most retired folks over the age of 60 are going to avoid public situations; most will probably choose to wear masks. Nursing homes probably shouldn’t open to the public.
If Governors tell their citizens to avoid close contact, especially with strangers, wash your hands, especially after spending time in public places, avoid touching your face with your hands… Won’t enough people behave sensibly enough to avoid overwhelming our medical facilities? Most will avoid public transportation, crowded restaurants, bars… At least for the first few weeks. Then, if people aren’t dropping dead two weeks after going to Applebee’s, a few more folks will go. If people do drop dead, fewer will go.
We are a free people who can think for ourselves. If I lived in NYC and DeBlasio made an announcement that the city is now open for business and encouraged all to ride the subway to Yankee Stadium for a grand opening concert; I’d stay in my flat, order a pizza and watch on TV. We are as smart as our leaders. Give us the information they have and let us choose how to live our lives.
Sharon W.
Thanks for sharing your wonderful news.
All our best to you and your hubby. We’ll keep you both in our prayers.
Daniel Schwartz, “America Alone” is an excellent book.
Go live in Japan and get some ground truth, and statistics.
The data is available on worldometers.
If Sweden is doing so great without lockdown measures, then why is Sweden starting to lock down the country because they are finding they can’t cope any longer with the high casualty rate?
We have to give the Sweden experiment about 9 more months.
If there is a second round that hammers those strict rules locales, and Sweden is relatively unscathed because they’ve earned their herd immunity, then they were on to something.
physicsguy, I’m wearing a mask when inside stores and garden centers, so people don’t sneeze on me. I’m not wearing one taking walks in the neighborhood or pulling weeds in the garden. Thus, the photo of George Stephanopoulos walking alone in a park without his mask up is not a problem; the video of Nancy Pelosi wiping her nose and then putting the hand on the podium in the well of the House is a big problem, unless the next speaker brought a disinfectant wipe along.
The state took 3,000 tests throughout New York to get a so-called snapshot of the infection rate.
The number from New York City was startling: More than a fifth tested positive, having recovered or been asymptomatic.
Art Deco:
Argument by GIGO. There may be a lot more involved in Japan than just mask use, use that brain of yours. Societal approaches to hygiene for instance, but a stat from worldometer is all you need? Sheesh.
“You mean the virus just migrates from person to person like magic.”
Of course not.
Argument by GIGO.
You can pull numbers out of your a$$ if it’ll help you feel better. Just don’t bug normal people.
JTW:
Who said Sweden is doing “so great”? It’s around the same level as Washington DC and somewhat better than Michigan but not tons better, and it’s doing worse than Norway.
It’s only doing “so great” compared to what the predictions were for a country that’s not shut down very much at all.
Art Deco, my previous comments on mask use was to point out the conflicting “advice” from “experts” and to point out the hypocrisy of the House Reps.
Now to just a bit of science: the virus has a diameter of 120nm; 1.2 x10^-7m. The typical distance between the weave in standard cloth is about 0.1mm, or 1×10-4m. So, the openings in your typical homemade cloth mask are about a 1000x larger than the virus. Those mandated, homemade cloth masks are not going to do much good at all. Even if the virus is carried on aerosol droplets and are stopped by the mask, the next inhalation by the wearer will suck in the virus now stuck on the edges of the openings. Medical grade masks are much much better, but that’s not what is being mandated; they just want ANY covering. So one can walk around with an Old West bandit bandana which has zero protection for both wearer and nearby persons, and still satisfy my state’s ridiculous edict.
Neo, look at Willis’ plot, especially the one where he starts all the countries at the same death/population level. Sweden and the US are following the exact same curve. Just an interesting perspective to consider.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/
Now to just a bit of science: the virus has a diameter of 120nm; 1.2 x10^-7m.
1. Do the masks reduce and redirect the quantity of exhaled and inhaled air?
2. Do you have an alternative explanation for the situation in Japan?
We have reason to believe that conversation and particularly group singing are the most potent ways of spreading this virus.
The recent example offered by Steven Sailer is instructive: 73 people who had sat in a particular Chinese restaurant were quarantined. They identified patient zero, who infected 9 other individuals. Everyone he infected was sitting at his table or one of the two most proximate tables, one of which was downwind given the air conditioning. Space, time, air currents were all salient factors. We have reason to believe the quantum of virus to which one is exposed is also associated with the severity of one’s ailment. You don’t want an extra advantage, fine. It’s your choice.
I know (been there, worn masks for things far worse than this virus, been tested with them) that a face seal and type of mask if a bit (very) important for respiratory protection. That’s why respirators have “protection factors” assigned to them. A bandana = respiratory protection factor of squat.
Art Deco, you still miss my point. I have no argument with wearing a medical grade mask; in fact I have one. You keep bringing up Japan, so my question is are the Japanese wearing medical grade masks? At least from pictures it seems most of them were/are. Homemade cloth masks are not going to help, so if the government is going to mandate face covering, at least make it medical grade and make sure everyone has access to those masks.
“You don’t want an extra advantage, fine. It’s your choice.” Why make this so personal to me? I can turn it right around…wear a cloth mask if you think it helps you.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
Art Deco, you still miss my point.
No, I’m indifferent to your point.
Here’s another problem with statistics that I hadn’t considered until recently.
Along with millions of others, I’ve been frustrated with the lack of testing for COVID-19, in the USA. Along with a few other things, this testing failure served as justification for my frustration with the FDA.
But any test will have have false positives and false negatives. No test is absolute. Instead, they’re all probabilistic. If the false readings are small relative to the number of people infected, then that’s okay.
On the other hand, if the false readings are large relative to the number of people infected, then the big data picture won’t be accurate. Even a very good test won’t give us accurate cumulative data if the infected population percentage is low. As the margin of error for a test approaches the percentage of the population infected, then the test becomes increasingly useless.
Oddly enough, that means my frustration with the lack of early testing was probably misplaced. As more and more people are infected, then testing will give us more reliable cumulative data. Earlier/smaller cumulative test results are almost certainly less accurate than later/larger cumulative test results.
Of course, this is all from the point of view of those looking at cumulative data. The perspective of the poor person who’s worried that he’s been infected is quite another thing. For him, maybe even a bad test would have been better than nothing.
As always, please note I could be wrong about this. More than a few decades ago, I took a few courses on probability and statistics. I’ve forgotten most of it, so if anybody here has more current knowledge, please feel free to correct my remarks.
Art Deco:
You’re indifferent to the fact that the Japanese are apparently wearing a more effective type of mask than is available at present to the American public? And yet you have cited the Japanese and masks here and physicsguy has responded with what seem to be some relevant responses here.
You’re indifferent to the fact that the Japanese are apparently wearing a more effective type of mask than is available at present to the American public?
I’d be happy to have better masks. His contention was that the cloth masks were useless because of the size of the virus particles. I think there is some distinction between ‘not effective toward certain ends’ and ‘useless’. My links and examples tell you one reason why.
Arrogance writ large, not indifferent. Seen it before.
What is the respiratory protection factor of a bandana for particles the size of the Wuhan virus? Please provide the data, stats man.
Art Deco on April 24, 2020 at 3:51 pm said:
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
I’m afraid I’ve lost track of the dispute between deco and phys, but I’d like to recommend the article cited by deco. (See link above.)
The article was published in Quillette by someone who’s not an epidemiologist, but has written an amateur bit of epidemiology more useful than what most of the professionals have been publishing.
On top of that, it’s actually fun to read. Really, please take a look. One practical conclusion: yes, there’s good reason to wear a mask. And contrary to most therapists, emotional restraint is healthy. Okay, that’s a small leap.
What is the respiratory protection factor of a bandana for particles the size of the Wuhan virus? Please provide the data, stats man.
This isn’t that difficult. Give it some thought.
if an illness has the incidence of 5 per million in one population and 10 per million in another, and a writer wants to scare people, the writer often reports that the rate is double in that second population and never reveals the actual numbers.
This is not just a journalism phenomenon. Abstracts of scientific papers often use this sort of language. Saying things like, “exposure to x doubles your chance of getting scary disease y.” You have to read the fine print to know whether that’s from .005% to .01%, or from 10% to 20%. Maybe they are also just trying to hype their results, but scientists (and their peer reviewers) should know better.
Art Deco:
That doesn’t sound like indifference. He made a good point, you are making a point.
Nor did physicsguy say that all cloth masks were “useless.” This is what he said [emphasis mine]:
I’ve done a lot of research on this, and cloth masks are FAR less effective than even surgical masks, which in turn are far less effective than the N95 ones. Neither the surgical masks nor the N95 masks are easily available to the average person (and their purchase and use are discouraged for all but medical workers because of the shortage). And as far as cloth masks go, “an Old West bandit bandana” does satisfy the requirements even if only a single thickness of a loose weave and yet that sort of “mask” offers (as far as I can see) just about zero protection, much as physicsguy has stated.
Double thickness masks offer significantly more, although their record is still pretty bad, and if they are lined with paper towels they do a tiny bit better, but are still not good.
Your arguments would be strengthened if you just stuck to offering facts and cut out the personal stuff. That doesn’t just go for you, it goes for everyone, but I have observed that you make it personal here more often than most. So people get personal in return.
A basic bit of information on respirators, and protection factors. If you look at the figure titled “Major Types of Respirators” you will note that “Needs to be fit tested”
is an important consideration even for “dust masks.”
https://www.osha.gov/Publications/3352-APF-respirators.html.
To state it plainly for those who are indifferent, you have to get a seal on your indifferent face for the respirator to protect your indifferent backside. Can a bandanna do that? Think about it. It’s not too hard.
Another tip for the indifferent, don’t have a beard or forget to shave.
To state it plainly for those who are indifferent, you have to get a seal on your indifferent face for the respirator to protect your indifferent backside.
Toward what end? Unlike you and physicsguy, I’m not trying to operate a forensics lab. I’m trying to encourage people to put barriers between the droplets in their nose and the rest of the world, as well as between their droplets and my nose. Also between my fingers and my face. Additional barriers are space and outdoor air. In addition, I’m trying to encourage them to say as little as possible.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
That’s a link to the article on superspreader events that I mentioned in my comment above. I swear that this is fun to read and it’s relevant to the question of wearing masks. Even people who are sick and tired of the mask issue will like this article.
Below, I’ve copied a passage from the article. I know it’s too long for a blog comment; but, in this case, I ask Neo’s indulgence.
_____________________________________________________________
Bourouiba’s research hits squarely on a blind spot in our knowledge of COVID-19. On one hand, scientists have an intimate molecule-by-molecule knowledge of the virus’s structure, its full genome having been sequenced months ago. On the other hand, the scientific and lay literature is bursting with epidemiological reports from just about every corner of the planet. But the nitty-gritty mechanics of actual disease transmission doesn’t take place on the microscopic scale of nucleic acids or on the gargantuan scale of whole nations. It takes place on the everyday face-to-face scale of inches and feet, as Flügge showed 121 years ago.
And it is on this crucial scale that our knowledge is thinnest. Despite the passage of four months since the first known human cases of COVID-19, our public-health officials remain committed to policies that reflect no clear understanding as to whether it is one-off ballistic droplet payloads or clouds of fine aerosols that pose the greatest risk—or even how these two modes compare to the possibility of indirect infection through contaminated surfaces (known as “fomites”).
Gaining such an understanding is absolutely critical to the task of tailoring emerging public-health measures and workplace policies, because the process of policy optimization depends entirely on which mechanism (if any) is dominant:
If large droplets are found to be a dominant mode of transmission, then the expanded use of masks and social distancing is critical, because the threat will be understood as emerging from the ballistic droplet flight connected to sneezing, coughing, and laboured breathing. We would also be urged to speak softly, avoid “coughing, blowing and sneezing,” or exhibiting any kind of agitated respiratory state in public, and angle their mouths downward when speaking.
If lingering clouds of tiny aerosol droplets are found to be a dominant mode of transmission, on the other hand, then the focus on sneeze ballistics and the precise geometric delineation of social distancing protocols become somewhat less important—since particles that remain indefinitely suspended in an airborne state can travel over large distances through the normal processes of natural convection and gas diffusion. In this case, we would need to prioritize the use of outdoor spaces (where aerosols are more quickly swept away) and improve the ventilation of indoor spaces.
If contaminated surfaces are found to be a dominant mode of transmission, then we would need to continue, and even expand, our current practice of fastidiously washing hands following contact with store-bought items and other outside surfaces; as well as wiping down delivered items with bleach solution or other disinfectants.
Dodge and weave, you didn’t say any of this before your snark on physicsguy started.
And even wearing a half mask/dust mask requires some basic care to be effective. I’m not trying to run a forensic lab Mr. Indifferent, but I have worn these things for more than 30 years at work and at home.
Just put a pillow case over your head, but don’t forget the eye holes this time.
One country, one system: The week that China shredded its promise on Hong Kong
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/one-country-one-system-the-week-that-china-shredded-its-promise-on-hong-kong/2020/04/24/247fb3e6-7001-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html
Here some facts from Doctors in the front line. Excellent video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU
Part 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw
Death rates in places in lockdown can’t be compared to Sweden. Sweden is much farther along in achieving herd immunity. They made a conscious decision to accept more deaths now in order to have fewer later. You can’t evaluate their decision at this point by comparing it to places using a completely different approach.
Cornflour;
All well and good, speculation about the mode of transmission of the virus. How do people who were asymptomatic factor in? Did they transmit the virus just by normal respiration or by skin contact with surfaces? If they haven’t figured this out from studies in health care settings yet (modes of transmission) I ain’t holding my breath on them figuring it out for the wide wide world. Optimist, eh?
Om:
I probably shouldn’t rely on my memory, but I don’t believe that Jonathan Kay, the author of the article on superspreader patterns, had anything to say about symptomatic vs. asymptomatic infections. Instead, he focused on infection mechanisms and patterns of superspreader events. If I had to guess Kay’s opinion, I’d assume that he’d say that symptomatic and asymptomatic people transmit the infection in a similar fashion. In the context of Kay’s analysis, I’m not sure why this would be significant.
Kay repeatedly noted his lack of training as an epidemiologist, but I think his analysis is more than just speculation. Nevertheless, it’s true that what you called “modes of transmission” are inferred from the superspreader patterns. I guess I found his inference more convincing than you did.
So, for what it’s worth, here’s his conclusion:
“[E]ven a layperson can see that there is a fairly clear pattern in the most notorious, destructive, and widely reported cases of mass COVID-19 infection—virtually all of which feature forms of human behaviour that permit the direct ballistic delivery of a large-droplet Flüggian payload from face A to face B. If fomites were a major pathway for COVID-19 infection outside of hospitals, old-age residences, and homes, one would expect restaurant cooks, mass-transit ticket handlers, and FedEx delivery workers to be at the center of major clusters. They’re not. If small-droplet airborne concentrations in unventilated spaces were a common vector for COVID-19 transmission (as with measles, for instance), one would expect whole office buildings to become mass-infection hot spots. That doesn’t seem to have happened.”
P.S. From your comment, I couldn’t be completely sure that you read the entire article, or just the passage that I copied into my earlier comment. I’ve tried to respond the best way I could. Don’t mean to beat a dead horse.
P.P.S. I don’t think that anybody’s ever called me an optimist, so I can’t use that as an excuse for my appreciation of Kay’s analysis. Maybe I’m just simple-minded.
Dodge and weave,
Thanks for the display of projection. Always an education.
Mr. Indifferent seems remarkably resistant to learning from his educational experiences. Dunning-Kreuger
Cornflour:
Thanks for the additional abstraction of the article.
Although Montage would not approve, here is a Powerlineblog.com analysis of the IHME modeling as applied to 5 midwestern states IA, WI, MN, ND, and SD. The IHME looks pretty flakey, and politicians who use their product flakier. King Jay that would be you.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/coronavirus-in-five-states-3.php
Seems to me you are objecting to everyone becoming what an LSM journalist does. Pick a bias angle throw all “factoids” bereft of context that support you POV and of course somewhere in the middle give a nod to the lack of objectivity and keep going.
Even you seem to be following that template.
Of course the alternative would be to do on the one hand and then on the other. Such a piece would be seen as too preach-y or boring
Cornflour:
Quickly read through the Quilette article and a few quick thoughts from someone who sings in a church choir and in a congregation. Of all the congregations in the US he can point to one or two instances of Wuhan virus morbidity and mortality, not telling to me, since the virus was around before those events occurred. Choir members should have been dropping like flies especially considering that in my experience most of us are in the vulnerable age distribution. The large droplets probably don’t get beyond the choir loft/risers since not all anthems call for singing phrases with explosive shout-like expression or emphasis (my experience). Can’t say much about contemporary praise band style, not my preferred means of worship.
Worship? What is that? It’s not essential.
om:
Thanks for taking the time to read the superspreader article and to reply.
I think your counterargument makes some sense. In response, the author might say something like so:
I can only work with what I’ve got. I had evidence of superspreader events. I looked at each case. If the virus were more widespread than we thought, and more people in choirs were vigorously singing and expelling saliva globules containing viruses, then maybe we should have had more choir superspreader events.
Or maybe the virus just isn’t as contagious as we thought.
Or maybe these were outdoor choirs, with people standing in UV light? (Just kidding.)
More seriously, on this issue, I’m going to have to invoke the old saw “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”
Sorry, that’s all I’ve got.
Woopsie…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8252553/Swedish-expert-says-coronavirus-lockdown-not-saved-lives.html
Your arguments would be strengthened if you just stuck to offering facts and cut out the personal stuff.
You keep confusing me with ‘om’.
Mr Indifferent:
I’m pretty sure Neo can tell the two of us apart by style and temperament, but maybe you know her mind than she knows herself? Doubt it, but whatever. 🙂
Mr Indifferent:
I’m pretty sure Neo can tell the two of us apart by style and temperament, but maybe you know her mind better than she knows herself? Doubt it, but whatever.
Left out a word in the edit process, wouldn’t want to confuse you. 🙂
Another opinion/assessment that will not be approved by Montage:
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/04/25/this_pandemic_is_over_lets_stop_the_economic_suicide_and_get_back_to_work_490025.html
“No evidence indicates that this flu was exceptionally dangerous. On March 20th, the French published a major controlled study that shows no excess mortality at all from coronavirus compared to other flues. SARS and Mers were both much more lethal and did not occasion what Briggs’ reader “Uncle Dave” described as “taking a hammer and sickle to the economy.””
om:
Actually, that quote doesn’t make sense. I don’t have time right now to read the whole piece, but it was this part that raised a read flag for me: “SARS and Mers were both much more lethal and did not occasion…’taking a hammer and sickle to the economy.’”
That quote is confused about what “more lethal” means. SARS and MERS were both actually extraordinarily lethal, much more lethal than any flu or than COVID, it’s true. But they are not nearly as easy to catch. I wrote about that at some length here as well as here. Please read.
That made both SARS and MERS far more easy to contain. The entire death toll of SARS was 774 and the death toll from MERS was 866. That’s worldwide.
Neo:
Thanks for the brief assessment of the claim. I look forward to your additional thoughts on the article if you find it worthwhile.