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Why are we so afraid that our hospitals could be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients? — 15 Comments

  1. watching the president’s news conference today

    Is like watching an attack of the zombies.

    The (so-called) journalists show their IQ < 80, and are attempting to eat the brains of the Trump health task force.

    The questions are more like attack editorials, and continue to propagate falsehoods and even implicitly accuse Trump of lying.

    They are completely useless for conveying real information to the American public.

    Now the televised conference with the governors is showing the strength of the Trump administration for communicating and making decisions in real time.

  2. Another aggravating factor might be that we are constantly told that every other health system in the world is better than ours.

    So, then next time you hear how our healthcare system sucks, and Trump is an idiot, ask the genius you are talking to why the US situation doesn’t look like Italy on steroids, given we have five times their population.

    I asked a supposedly educated woman this question a couple of days ago, and she said it was because the Democrats have been forcing Trump to do the right things. I suppose she meant they forced him to close the borders to Chinese travelers in January while they were trying to impeach him? Calling him a xenophobic racist for doing so must have been reverse psychology.

  3. That’s been the major worry, that our emergency care would be overwhelmed. With the new treatments just approved, which will help many serious cases resolve positively and fairly quickly, that fear should recede.

    It’s clear to me that, in the midst of the impeachment nonsense, Trump’s executive decision to restrict travel from China gave us time and saved many, many American lives.

  4. 13,159 confirmed US cases..
    176 deaths
    over 4 years of economic progress erased..

    the Trillion dollar virus…

    I will claim to be the first to give it that name..

    the newer cases on the confirmed list gives us a 1.33% death rate
    over the next week this will drop a lot…

    next time, we wont be so lucky, because no one will listen..
    like having only one rescue flair, the left blew it (too early)

    We are afraid because this is what economic warfare is…
    there are no craters or things that will let you know clearly
    but its a psyops game… using the emergency system to message everyone in NYC… closing things down as if there is a plague… destroying economy…

    What would destroying a capitalist global system look like?

    overt war vs covert war…
    once so many had nuclear weapons the first was off the table..
    keep the afraid and force them to make maladaptive choices that ripple
    shake their confidence tree, and gather the fruits…

  5. There must be a number of different factors as to why Italy seems to be much worse than other countries in terms of fatalities. But one of them is a state run rationed healthcare system that uses a healthcare success metric known in the U.K. as QALYs, or something very similar. (Hat tip to Mark Steyn.)

    The Italian or British healthcare people don’t just count deaths as a type of immutable failure. They count QALYs added by their service. A QALY is a Quality Adjusted Life Year. While it is a truism that statistically a healthy 50 year old has more years left than a healthy 75 year old, the QALY system says that one of the 50 year old’s years is worth more than one of the 75 year old’s years. So saving a 50 year old isn’t worth 3 or 4 times more, it’s worth maybe 10 or 15 times more.

    Now compare the QALY difference in saving a healthy 50 year old compared to a 75 year old with poor health. In that case, the old sick guy is practically worthless. When the hospital becomes overwhelmed, the old guy with pre-existing conditions is pushed to the back of the line.

    Here is what Breitbart had to say about the epidemic in Italy:

    While the study could provide some insight into why Italy’s coronavirus death rate appears significantly higher than the death rates in other countries — about eight percent — another factor to take into consideration is that the young, healthier people are overwhelming the Italian hospitals.

    While older people — as well as younger people with pre-existing conditions — are dying from the Chinese virus in Italy, the majority of coronavirus patients occupying ICU beds are younger than the average age of those who die from the virus, and they’re being prioritized by hospital staff, doctors say.

    “If someone between 80 and 95 has serious breathing difficulties, you probably don’t proceed,” admitted an anesthetist at a hospital in Bergamo.

    Meanwhile, the mayor of Bergamo has stated that patients who cannot be treated for the coronavirus “are left to die” by doctors who are forced to overlook older, sicker patients in order to make room for those who are younger and more likely to survive.

  6. “The questions are more like attack editorials, and continue to propagate falsehoods and even implicitly accuse Trump of lying.” — Edward

    I was listening to the presser today as well (which I have never done until recently, but AesopSpouse is home working all day now and tunes them in) and noticed the vampire media on the prowl.
    However, I was very impressed with a female reporter from OAN who used exactly their MO to make a statement about the situation and tee up a response from Trump for which he had clearly been looking for a cue line.

  7. In re Italy vs Germany recovery rates: the difference has been reported to be dependent on the number of acute care and even just regular hospital beds available.
    Of course, I can’t find that particular article now, but here are some informational ones that support that suggestion.

    Bar graphs of beds available 2 years ago, mouse over each bar for country name & number per 100K population. In 2017, Germany had about 600, Italy only 262.

    https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Healthcare_resource_statistics_-_beds

    Wikipedia tracks everything pretty close to real time.
    Again, German hospitals have way more beds per capita than do Italian ones.
    It may not make you feel better to know that Italy has more than we do.
    Top ranked 1-4: Japan, South Korea, Russia, and Germany.
    However, Germany has way more intensive & critical care beds than most countries, and we have more than they do. Top number for those is Turkey, BION.
    Very interesting numbers in this chart, which do not (of course) match up with the first source I linked.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

    A model of when the number of patients will exceed the number of beds, for the geeks in the house. Only covers Germany and Washington state, but the methodology was quasi-plausibe: there is an awful lot of guessing in models.
    (Assume all chickens are spherical, if you happen to know that joke.)
    However, it does show clearly why we are panicking now, before the beds start getting filled up.

    https://medium.com/@trentmc0/when-does-hospital-capacity-get-overwhelmed-in-usa-germany-a06cf2835f89

  8. Be very glad that the Democrats are not in charge.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/19/former-obamacare-official-spreads-panic-on-msnbc-demands-all-masks-sent-to-new-york-city/

    Former Obamacare official Andy Slavitt appears on MSNBC in a state of panic to demand that all medical masks and equipment throughout the nation be sent to New York City; while accusing other states, including Texas, of “hoarding” critical healthcare supplies.

    Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate recognizes that participating in any discussion with this level of emotional panic is not going to be helpful, he walks off set.

    Panicked NYC resident and visibly unstable former ACA official Andy Slavitt, is talking about medical equipment when he demands all masks and supplies be redirected to New York with a sense of urgency. However, imagine *if* the shortage *was* food. Prepare yourselves and your family accordingly.

  9. The mentions of various “stockpiles” of things like masks and ventilators are of relatively small numbers of these essential items–for instance, I’ve seen numbers like 2,000 or 5,000 ventilators that the military might be able to come up with.

    (There was a mention on Fox last night, that part of the ventilator shortage has to do with the fact that the Chinese are not shipping us the circuit boards that are the key component in these ventilators, as well something that I’ve heard reported before–that a boatload of masks from China that was headed for the U.S. was ordered to turn around and head back to China, so that the Chinese could use these masks).

    Thus, my impression is that, while we do have certain “emergency stockpiles,” the quantities of these items in them are nowhere near the quantities that are likely be needed.

    Given Globalism and world-wide travel, outbreaks like this are likely to reoccur in the future, thus, to prepare for that likely future, such “stockpiles” will have to be built up to much higher levels.

  10. P.S. According to the linked article below New York Mayor DeBlasio announced last night that he was asking the Federal government for “three million N95 masks, 50 million surgical masks, 15,000 ventilators. The list also includes surgical gowns, coveralls, gloves and face masks, for which the city is seeking 25 million of every item.”*

    Just where does he think these enormous quantities of these critical items are going to come from?

    * See https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-updates-cuomo-shelter-in-place-scary?sf119443128=1

  11. Snow, isn’t it ironic that NYC, which bills itself as the center of the universe in so many ways, runs to the Federal government for those supplies? I have a suggestion for de Blasio; go buy them.

    With respect to the thrust of Neo’s article; the fear is real among medical people. My daughter in a LA County hospital has been sounding that alarm long before the situation in Italy became so severe.. Like so much that we hear lately, I have no idea whether it is justified. She also reports that some private hospitals are dumping virus patients into the county system, simply because they don’t want them. I should think that could be prohibited, if it isn’t already. Morning rag reports that Gov of California has requested a hospital ship. Interestingly, I can recall that during the H1N1 event, a Catholic hospital here in SoCal, where my wife went for emergency treatment for severe flu related dehydration, had a large tent set up to handle less serious cases so the main hospital could be dedicated to the more critical. They coped.

    Side note: in a heated discussion, which we both later regretted; daughter was trashing Trump’s lack of leadership. Among the complaints, she said that the U.S. (CDC) refused an offer of test kits from WHO and S. Korea because of–Trump. I later verified through a quote from a WHO spokeswoman, that they never offered test kits to the U.S. I don’t know about S. Korea. So, false information has infiltrated, and is accepted in the health care community.

    Interesting that Newom and Cuomo are praising President Trump now that they want his help. Is it too cynical to expect them to return to the usual carping and slander once the crisis has passed?

    Breaking news in the morning paper. Gov Newsom has shut down California, by restricting us to our homes except for state approved activities. Again, no one knows whether this is actually necessary or will even be beneficial. But, he is doing it, because he can. He calls it a “hard, but necessary decision”.

    Sorry Governor, the Mayor of LA beat you to the punch by minutes. A true leader. He acted right after the second death was announced in LA county. We are told that a younger person died. We are not told, and never are, what what other health issues were a factor. His death justifies ramping up fear and control.

    I have no idea how they intend to enforce their restrictions on the very large population of homeless people that infest the major cities. Maybe we will be required to take them into our homes. Now, that assertion is intentionally apocryphal. Isn’t it?

    The genie is out of the bottle. Politicians at every level are ramping up and squeezing down. Because of the effects of intended and unintended consequences, it could be a very long time, if ever, before this country looks anything like it did on 1/1/2020.

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