A doctor counsels calm
This post at Legal Insurrection links to and quotes a Canadian doctor on the subject of the coronavirus panic. Although I’m not a doctor, it expresses my feelings and online research quite well.
Here is the gist of it:
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.
What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they ” probably don’t have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know…” and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize…
I’m scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.
But mostly, I’m scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and “fight for yourself above all else” attitude could prove disastrous.
I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let’s meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.
Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.
I wonder if this voice will be heard. Today, it doesn’t feel like it.
You’re probably correct that the growth of social media alone contributes a lot to all this scare-mongering but that makes the irresponsible behavior of the media and the Left/NeverTrump even more contemptible. These people claim to be the party of SCIENCE and the grownups who should be trusted to run things.
And the worst of it is they still haven’t learned anything. They think they’re going to scapegoat Donald Trump for this? If push comes to shove, Trump will scapegoat THEM! After all, what exactly did the Democrats spend all of January and part of February obsessing about? COVID-19? Or was it impeachment?
Mike
Also well worth reading is the essay just posted at lawliberty.org by Theodore Dalrymple, the brilliant (now retired) psychiatrist and belletrist entitled “Between Complacency and Panic.” Dr. Marc Siegel, who often appears on Fox, has also been arguing for a calm and rational approach to the virus, although it is in the interest of the MSM, and of the Democrats, to create as much fear, hysteria, and panic as possible.
The left, media and democrats (but I repeat myself) have been searching for something to bring Trump down for the last 4 years. They are hoping that Covid-19 will do it, and are sowing panic to the best of their capabilities.
They hope for the death of all Trump supporters, and I suspect that there will be deliberate attempts to promote infection at Trump rallies and other republican events.
I have finally tipped to the opinion that the democrats are the party of violence, hate and loathing for anything American. The 1619 travesty of American history being promoted by the NY Slimes and in our public schools is evil.
This has to be in the running for the largest hysteria/ panic in American history (not I said American in other places this is much worse).
Combination of irresponsible partisan media combined with a social media driven society that is driven by lots of bad info by questionable sources.
I am not sure if this behaviour is attributable to a case of mass hysteria or Trump Derangement Syndrome, but when it comes to Covid-19 this is worth reading.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/coronavirus_codswallop__by_the_numbers.html
Most of what I am seeing on FB is that this is all a big joke.
Italy just locked down 60 million people, 1/4 of the population, and in the most economically productive areas. They know this will produce a serious economic downturn. Now perhaps their medical advisors are brain dead stupid. Or perhaps not. But I really don’t think this is a big joke. Governments don’t wreck their economies on purpose because of media hype.
I realize that the American news media is corrupt, incompetent and enemies of the people. No argument about it. But that doesn’t mean that everything they hype has no factual basis at all.
One Chinese doctor said that the strain he’s been dealing with is like SARS plus HIV. It wrecks the lungs and the immune system. That doesn’t sound like a joke.
Some infectious disease experts have made predictions that are pretty frightening. They aren’t media hype.
I know I don’t have enough information to make any kind of decision. So, recognizing my ignorance and hoping to exercise a bit of wisdom, I remain cautious. I’m prepared for a lockdown. I chose to cancel our cruise over spring break. We won’t be taking the trip to Whistler at the end of the month. I realize the odds of us getting sick on these trips weren’t likely real high. So what? I prefer lower odds to higher. Cautious is fine for me. I’m 63 and in great health, but I am in the higher risk cohort. So I’m cautious. Not panicked. I can cruise and travel when I want later.
Stan,
I largely agree with you on the beginning and end of your comment. The Chinese doctor and others is questionable and less credible to me because many others are saying much different things.
But, yes, this is very serious in some countries and has been handled better by some (it appears South Korea has done great work and provided tons of good data). Italy is a tough one to figure because it is kind of tough case as it’s poorly run governmentally.
The cruise cancellation would be a no brainer to me but Whistler less so with the only thing being it’s out of the US (don’t know if you are American). Thought of getting stuck in quarantine in foreign country (even Canada) does not sound fun at all.
Reasonable precautions are good as this doctor states but the extremes are just panic. I saw a woman the other day buying about ten 24 packs of toilet paper and dozens of bottles of water.
TDS feeds the COVID19 panic. As someone who was knocking on heavens door 10 years ago due to bacterial pneumonia as a complication of H1N1, I’m more
concerned about this season’s influenza than COVID19. At my age I avoid being in large crowds until the current flu has run it’s course.
stan:
Actually, we do have a great deal of information. None of the information indicates anything worse than 2009’s H1N1. Most of it indicates something not as bad.
I’ve written many posts on this, as have others.
And a description of what happens to lungs when someone dies of pneumonia or H1N1 or COVID-19 is a description of a mechanism of death. It tells you nothing about a person’s likelihood of dying.
A country instituting a quarantine is a policy reaction to statistics, but that doesn’t tell you whether it’s necessary. Do you know that in 2009 with H1N1, Mexico closed its schools and many other gathering places? No one here seems to have paid all that much attention. And that was next door to us.
I would not take anything done by the Italians as evidence of anything. That country has a notoriously fractious, flippantly corrupt, incoherent, bureaucratic culture of government.
Bottom line is we are not seeing many young people dying. It still does seem to be adhering to the pattern for other flu type diseases.
The media generates panic about the bolloxed testing kits – but the upshot of that story is that there are many people who, although infected, seem to be without serious symptoms.
10 years ago H1N1 infected 60 million Americans and killed 12,000 of them. Imagine if we had these numbers with Covid 19. Peoples hair would be on fire.
Why is there such a difference in the response? Hmmmmm….could it have anything to do with who is POTUS now vs. then?
If the internet would let me, I would shout a great big AMEN!
It is nice to hear a voice of sanity.
This is more a manufactured panic by the news who are helping to tank the market, and so, try to insure a loss to Trump at ANY cost… The people who believe you have to break a few eggs to make an omelette, are not worried about breaking eggs. They are not worried about the retirement accounts being destroyed right now… nor are they worried that in two weeks, the numbers are going to drop like rocks…
[EVERY active case now listed in the US will be gone and only new cases will be represented: see graphic link below]
one only has to look at this app and rightfully figure that out..
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
by far the huge number is from china..
the largest number of deaths in the US is from one elderly care home
the rate is comparable to the flu..
yet people are going nuts and the news, like CNN is making it worse using terms like pandemic before the people who are the officials designating it are willing to use the term.
blasio of ny is talking about halting the subway system..
H1N1 killed 12,000 and no one halted the subway
the Flu has already killed 20,000
The medical community, from colleges, are not helping with their talk of preparing and not having enough beds as if thousands are going to roll in any moment. this includes setting up tents to treat people, who most of which, are going to be fear impacted cold and flu patients.
but the worst part has yet to happen… once this is over, people are going to feel foolish and the response like this needed for a REAL pandemic, will not happen. just as the biblical boy who cried wolf learned the hard way what playing with the social response meters does, the world will too…
oh, and at what point will people connect open borders with an inability to respond to such things? that with the current left idea of open up the whole thing, there is no way to slow down, let alone mitigate anything.
yet… the numbers are ridiculously low…
more common things are much higher
the reaction is completely disproportionate when compared with the common
Artfldgr:
Agreed.
But unfortunately, people respond to the words (like “pandemic,” even if they don’t know its exact meaning and how often it’s used). The math is ignored, the history of H1N1 is ignored. The media is purposely ignoring these things both because they believe doing so will hurt Trump and dearly wish for it to do so, and because it increases clicks and raises viewership and readership.
Sadly… IF a person causes a panic and a riot, there are laws that can be applied… if news agencies do it, and cause deaths and financial ruin, its just another day in the shop
I agree that reason should guide us. But he’s not really advocating strict reasoning.
When he gets his togetherness fiddle out and starts sawing out this tune,
…I just tune out. Go ahead pal, knock yourself out. An “Open mindedness” fetish, and a refusal to condemn complete idiocy is what got us HIV and wet markets in the first effn place. One more fat woman with bug-eye lens glasses and a pixie haircut on TV sanctimoniously spouting about “community” (I guess no one lives in a town or municipality anymore) , and I pull the plug on that too.
That 60 million seems much too high. That would be one out of every five men, women, and children contracting H1N1 swine flu in a single year.
But let’s go with those numbers. That would be a death rate of 0.02%. Not trivial, but nothing compared to COVID-19, which is running about 6% as of this writing (300 times as high).
I believe it was the WHO that estimated that, by the time this is all over, 70% of the world’s population would contract COVID-19, and of those, 2% would die. That would be 100 million dead worldwide, equal to the deaths in WWI and WWII combined.
This isn’t the ordinary flu.
The virus is an undefined problem at the moment, but that definition will come quickly now that it’s in the West.
Unfortunately, the Democrats are still wedded to their ‘not letting a good crisis go to waste’ political theorem. My guess is they will slyly let the panic build and nurture it carefully, hoping that in response, people will destroy their own healthy economy by driving into recession, and then hold Trump responsible in the voting booth.
j e on March 9, 2020 at 3:37 pm said:
Also well worth reading is the essay just posted at lawliberty.org by Theodore Dalrymple,
* * *
https://www.lawliberty.org/2020/03/09/between-complacency-and-panic/
Covers a lot of bases.
Yes, but.
On Tucker Carlson’s show a couple of nights ago it was pointed out that the great majority, perhaps 80% or more of our pharmaceuticals, chemicals used/needed in medicine, and medical equipment are manufactured in China, and that for antibiotics that percentage is even higher—with somewhere around 150 key drugs being of Chinese manufacture.
Tonight on Carlson’s show it was also pointed out that virtually all of our generic drugs are also manufactured in China and that, moreover, last week the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper pointed out i.e. printed the threat, that if China wanted to cut the U.S. off from these drugs and pharmaceutical chemicals and equipment, it could have grave effects on the U.S.–”Great country you have there, be a shame if something happened to it!”
Moreover, Carlson pointed out that such a cessation of pharmaceuticals from China would not even have to be deliberate, but could possibly be the result of mandatory closures of Chinese factories supplying those drugs, as China takes steps to halt the spread of the Corona virus.
Thus, it could possibly be the case that, until such Chinese pharmaceutical factories reopen and resume production, we here in the U.S. will only have whatever supplies of those drugs that are currently already here in the U.S., plus whatever supplies of these many drugs are “in the pipeline” i.e. there could be critical shortages of a number–perhaps many–of the drugs that many of us take on a routine basis.
When thinking of finding alternative sources of supply for these drugs, it was also pointed out that other countries likely also get the great majority of their pharmaceuticals, and/or the chemicals necessary to make pharmaceuticals in their countries, from China.
We need to get ourselves out of this extraordinarily dangerous position of vulnerability, and quickly, by having our government take all the steps necessary to rebuild and, then, to maintain, and to expand our native pharmaceutical industry.
It must be very clearly understood that “Globalism” has made this extraordinarily dangerous U.S. vulnerability possible.
We need to reverse course, and to become, once again, self-reliant in this and many other areas critical to the defense and health of our country and its citizens.
To put it another way, “America First.”
Where’s this big panic I keep hearing about and being counseled against? Where are the crowds swarming the streets, hair afire, breaking windows and overwhelming what little police remain to restore order?
So stocks of TP and Purell are sold out in some areas and an overpriced market has gotten a haircut. And Democrats — ho-hum — are using Covid as the excuse du jour to attack Trump.
Perhaps I might caution against panic against panic.
Dr. Sharkawy: “Let’s meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.
Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.”
Democrats:
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/leftists_mock_ted_cruz_for__protecting_them_from_coronaviruss.html
mkent: But let’s go with those numbers. That would be a death rate of 0.02%. Not trivial, but nothing compared to COVID-19, which is running about 6% as of this writing (300 times as high).
the above math is completely wrong on covid..
as of this writing, the highest rate you can make up is 3,990 deaths / 113,710 confirmed cases 0.035 * 100 = 3.5%
however, that would also be very wrong.. the actual number is a lot lower…
why? because people who get sick but not sick enough to go to the hospital are not being counted… those people feel they have a bad cold IF they feel it at all…
normally this cohort is many times the size of the cohort that is sick enough to get recorded.
the more sane and less bombastic estimates (the who used the simple math above which is very wrong), puts the death rate on par with the flu, and its infection rate lower..
The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S
In Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%
This is another thing that happens… ie. where it starts tends to be more fatal than later generations..
probably this is where its going to end up… once we have enough tests that people who have mild colds get tested and start being included in the numbers, the death rate will go down, not up… right now its at the maximum it can be given the numbers available..
we know they exist… because a small amount of the confirmed cases (as in the ships) barely had symptoms… (there were people who were asymptomatic with SARS as well).
Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32146694
none of the 24 asymptomatic cases presented any obvious symptoms while nucleic acid screening. Five cases (20.8%) developed symptoms (fever, cough, fatigue, etc.) during hospitalization. Twelve (50.0%) cases showed typical CT images of ground-glass chest and 5 (20.8%) presented stripe shadowing in the lungs. The remaining 7 (29.2%) cases showed normal CT image and had no symptoms during hospitalization. These 7 cases were younger (median age: 14.0 years; P=0.012) than the rest. None of the 24 cases developed severe COVID-19 pneumonia or died.
the only reason we know about them was that they were tested for being close to infected people and came up positive… but in a large population of people, like the ny city area, how many people have gotten it, got sick like a bad cold, and shrugged it off never getting tested?
7 of the 24 cases showed no symptoms…
as testing becomes more prevalent, we will find out more of these around the people who are sicker… it will be a long time before random testing will be done on swaths of population just for study reasons to guess the infected… (thats how they got the 60 million number.. eventually they were able to test many people and extrapolate how many must have gotten it for that many in their swaths to have a positive)
the bottom line is that its not as high as you quote, and its going to go down because the current figures are only based on the sickest, and not the whole cohort
the map https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html for the new york area just changed
this morning there were red and yellow but now they are gone… ie. the people who had it are no longer considered active… (or there is a mistake on the map that will get fixed)…
but thats what is going to happen on the map…
you see the red infected..
the other map shows the active cases
and after a week or two those cases disappear from the map
if these cases were the early ones, they may be off map now..
this is what is also happening in other places as the numbers are quickly leveling off…
masachusets now has its first recovered
[click on the circles to see active, recovered, etc]
Re: COVID-19 — Where precisely is the Goldilocks spot between complacency and panic? Assuming there is a Goldilocks spot…
Is it panic when people buy out the toilet paper at the neighborhood market?
Is it panic when the market drops 18% after a long bull run?
Is it panic when China and now Italy lock down 50-60 million of their citizens because of the virus?
Is it panic when people look at what China and Italy did and say, whoa!, this must be serious?
Is it panic when Trump restricted travel from China?
What is this panic we are constantly being warned about and how is it calibrated?
the rates are now updated
4,016 deaths
113,739 confirmed cases total
63,663 recovered
united states has 738 confirmed cases, 26 deaths (3.5%)
Germany has 1,176 cases 2 deaths (0.17%)
Iran 7,161 cases, 237 deaths (3.3%)
Italy 9,172 cases, 463 deaths (5.0%)
A few other people who are not responding in the best spirit of compassion for others.
(both via Jim Geraghty at NR, see below)
https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/coronavirus/family-of-missouri-s-first-coronavirus-patient-broke-self-quarantine/article_94fe6bf6-f679-5b88-870c-18c5f79d019b.html
https://www.tokyoreporter.com/japan/aichi-man-infected-with-coronavirus-goes-to-bars-to-spread-it/
Commenter to above story:
“We all thought the World of Warcraft accidental plague simulation wasn’t accurate because people in real life wouldn’t act as plague carriers. Then we found out we were wrong.”
And a link from there:
https://www.tokyoreporter.com/japan/video-emerges-showing-man-with-coronavirus-doing-karaoke-in-philippine-pub/
No comment needed, but it may be the same man as above. There are some similarities in the text.
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/preparing-for-the-coronavirus-disruption/
AesopFan: So is telecommuting a sign of panic? (Not asking you specifically.)
Some of my annoyance with the whole “panic” meme is recalling how poorly Obama and his supporters handled Ebola on his watch.
It was all, “Foolish Americans, your fears and panic are unwarranted and in any event we will keep you safe.”
Naturally this was followed by Keystone Cops levels of incompetence. Thank god, it apparently was difficult for Ebola to gain a foothold in the first world.
Or maybe we were just lucky.
mkent:
That was the later revised death rate for H1N1, not the rate initially reported.
At the beginning, ordinarily only the most severe cases of a disease come to the attention of authorities, and therefore the initial death rates reported (and we are still in that initial phase with COVID-19) are very high. Later the numbers are almost always revised downward because the milder infections that never even came to the attention of health authorities start to be recognized as well.
That happened with H1N1, and it will almost certainly happen with COVID-19. So you are comparing apples and oranges. However, if you want to compare apples and apples, initially in Mexico (where H1N1 hit first), the death rate for infected people was reported to be 6% (see this). Just as with today’s COVID-19, that rate went down as more information came in. But it takes time. It actually took many years before the true H1N1 rate was known, and even now it’s an approximation.
In addition, I’ve done extensive research on the reported death rates for COVID-19 so far, and that 6% figure you cite is way out of line with what I’ve been seeing.
Here’s a classic idiot bit from the Ebola files:
Centers for Disease Control Director Tom Frieden took to the Fox News website to explain “Why I don’t support a travel ban to combat Ebola outbreak.” Unfortunately, he offers no real reasons…
–“Globalist Gibberish from CDC Chief on Travel “, October 10, 2014
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/globalist-gibberish-cdc-chief-travel-ban-mark-krikorian/
But the most important thing of course is not to panic.
I can’t even.
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/03/09/austin-mayor-who-canceled-sxsw-over-coronavirus-now-asking-locals-to-get-out-and-mingle-to-make-up-for-losses/
The cancellation makes some sense if there are usually a lot of visitors from China, Italy, Iran, Washington State, and California.
Here in Santa Clara County CA we’ve gone from
1) nothing
to
2) warnings for old people to stay home, and everyone wash their hands
to
3) large gatherings banned. For example, our youngest is in high school orchestra.
They were slated to play at Disneyland in a couple weeks. (I guess Disney continuously cycles bands through there as part of a regular program).
Trip is cancelled and it’s not clear how much refund we’ll get.
Not implemented yet: school closure.
I live 20 miles away from the Coronavirus hotspot of New Rochelle, New York. Yesterday, I took a drive to a favorite deli that is 10 miles away, and only feet away from a commuter train station. I asked if business is down. No came the reply, same robust business as usual. At the grocery store the shelves are stocked. Plenty of toilet tissue.
I’m beginning to think that New Yorkers are better at weathering this. 9/11 was a big deal. It’s hardened us. This is small potatoes in comparison. Perhaps panicked residents on the west coast are not battle hardened. I mean, earthquakes can be bad but they haven’t been hit with a really bad one in a very long time.
Given that far, far more people die every year from the ordinary flu, I’m beginning to think that the OVID-19 virus, as an infectious disease is a “big nothing burger” and, an utter failure as a bioweapon. I suspect cultures lacking in basic hygiene and poor medical infrastructure account for much of the deaths.
“I Have Coronavirus: Quarantined Patient Details Life Aboard Diamond Princess and in Isolation Units”
https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-03-08-coronavirus-patient-describes-life-on-cruise-ship-in-quarantine
Despite spending weeks together confined to their stateroom… neither of the two couples wives contracted the virus… so just how ‘contagious’ can it really be? Perhaps there’s a not uncommon immunity to it?
The mainstream media in the U.S. is whipping up panic for two purposes: (1) increase ratings and ad revenue, (2) bash Trump, not necessarily in that order.
I spoke to a friend who works in northern Italy (Torino near Milan). He says that the north is better equipped to combat the infection due to it being a richer region. His fear is that it might spread south where, in his opinion, the infrastructure is close to third-world — his words not mine.
“united states has 738 confirmed cases, 26 deaths (3.5%)”
The case count is an artifact of the CDC’s testing guidelines, which until recently provided for testing of only two groups of people: people who had been to mainland China in the last 14 days and people with contact with a known infected person. Obviously the latter were rare due to the built-in conditions of testing and a fact that the CDC policy didn’t anticipate: there were no droves of seriously ill people who had recently returned from China going to the hospital, and therefore no significant amount of contact tracking.
The circumstances were so stupid that some poor guy sick with COVID-19 was at UC Davis and the CDC initially refused to let him be tested because he did not meet the guidelines, as he had not been to China or been in contact with a known infected person. I believe he was there four days before he was finally tested and confirmed.
But back to the original topic, the real ramifications are the unknown, and probably surprisingly large, number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people who have had COVID-19 and gotten better. The CDC – for reasons we can debate – was caught totally flat-footed when it was made public that this virus had been circulating in the wild in Washington state for six weeks. There has been zero general testing in this country that would have counted the presence of people who were never sick enough to go a hospital, so the case count here is vastly undercounted and overrepresented with the sickest patients.
KendallG:
I’m shocked (not really and not surprised) that the public servants in Washington state couldn’t focus on public health in King County (Seattle area) for the last three months.
Be prudent and stay safe Griffin and JJ (Pierce or Thurston County?).
I looked up the numbers right before I posted the comment, and they are close to what Artfldgr posted above.
As of last night when I wrote that, 68,022 cases of COVID-19 have run their course. Of those, 63,997 (94.08%) resulted in recovery, and 4,025 (5.92%) resulted in death. That’s a 6% death rate to one significant figure.
There were also 50,302 active cases at the time. Some of those will result in recovery, and some of those will result in death. We don’t know yet how many will fall into each category. They are still indeterminate. To include them in the denominator is to assume that all 50,302 active cases will result in recovery. That is highly, highly unlikely to be the case.
As of now, the numbers show a 6% death rate. Everything else at this point is conjecture.
It’s foolish to disregard people infected and not identified when conjecturing a ratio of deaths to infections. It’s simply nonsensical.
It’s been well over a month since responsible health organizations and medical professionals began encountering, and producing reports about, significant numbers of mild and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. This undermined, to at least some extent, the original reports out of China, which are the source of all of the panic. There has been a sort of online tug-of-war ever since.
If anyone or anything says something or issues a report or statement that should make reasonable people reconsider fear, doom and panic, a swarm of people show up to make posts that translate to, “No! No! Panic! More doom!” It’s weird. I’m not really a tinfoil hat brigade member, but after watching this for more than a month, I really do wonder if there’s organized groups trying to gin up ongoing panic at the forum/social media level.
mkent is cribbing off worldometer
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
You’ll note that the ratio of deaths to recoveries among the cumulative set of closed cases has been declining.
I am surprised that so many people view the ChiCom figures with such credibility. I did not know they were renowned for honesty. Is the footage that emerged from Wuhan of people dying in hospital hallways all faked? Wuhan citizens wrapping themselves in plastic before they go outside, they just fell for a psy-op, or do they in fact know the virus is much worse than official figures present?
Is the extremely heavy handed Chinese response what they typically do for a flu, or is this an enormous elaborate staged event to topple Trump? Italy is in on this staged charade too I take it, to the point of putting their entire nation in lockdown?
huxley on March 10, 2020 at 12:17 am said:
AesopFan: So is telecommuting a sign of panic? (Not asking you specifically.)
* * *
Maybe for some individuals, or companies, it is.
A tremendous amount of “office work” can be done at home — think cubicle-citizens who never do anything but say helle/goodbye in the halls or breakroom.
Other work needs constant communication with co-workers. And of course the secretaries & general flunkies have to be present to file the papers and that kind of stuff.
We may be seeing a wave of people who could have telecommuted previously and never had a good excuse to just do it, and some of them won’t go back inside the walls.
PS telecommuting is one of the reasons we DON’T NEED DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME CHANGES. /rant-off
Brian Morgan on March 10, 2020 at 8:10 am said:
…
I’m beginning to think that New Yorkers are better at weathering this. 9/11 was a big deal. It’s hardened us. This is small potatoes in comparison. Perhaps panicked residents on the west coast are not battle hardened.
* * *
Another advantage of the north-east and central states, plus some of the Gulf coast, is that we are used to stocking up for blizzards and hurricanes, so a lot of people already have those 10 cases of tp already in the cellar (in Utah, new homes even come pre-stocked — joke, but close to true).
Californians and others in mild climates never have to prep, and it is a learned skill.
Solrist:
See this about what’s going on in Italy.
As for China, I personally think the statistics there represent the usual change from early reports of a novel virus and the percentage of deaths (usually high) to later reports (lower). The reason is pretty simple, which is that early reports are only about the cases that come to the attention of medical authorities. Mild cases don’t, and are missed in the early statistics.
I’m not saying the Chinese are fonts of truth-telling. But I see no reason to think at this point that the basic trend they are describing is false. The Chinese, like the Italians, don’t want this to get any bigger, though, for obvious reasons that are at least partly economic. And the Chinese are used to telling their population what to do, and monitoring them for compliance, so this isn’t all that much of a stretch for them.
KyndyllG on March 10, 2020 at 1:19 pm said:
…
If anyone or anything says something or issues a report or statement that should make reasonable people reconsider fear, doom and panic, a swarm of people show up to make posts that translate to, “No! No! Panic! More doom!” It’s weird. I’m not really a tinfoil hat brigade member, but after watching this for more than a month, I really do wonder if there’s organized groups trying to gin up ongoing panic at the forum/social media level.
* * *
Short answer is probably yes.
The evidence is the rarity of talking-heads talking sense.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/03/09/and-this-is-how-its-done-brit-hume-makes-panic-inducing-media-look-even-worse-with-1-sentence-coronavirus-tweet/
Solrist, I think a government’s first priority is to ensure their survival through the next election cycle. A weak response will be exploited by political opponents. To your other point that this might be a staged charade then this dwarfs SpyGate by orders of magnitude. Are globalists that desperate? I don’t think so. There is always money to be made in other ventures. Why risk being strung up on the nearest lamppost? Surely they must know that this is a high stakes game. Surely they must read what history has dealt traitors in the past.
Brian – China is not hugely concerned by elections, unless I am greatly mistaken. Maybe you are right, that governments feel this is a chance to flex their biceps for their voters, following logic somewhat beyond me.
Incidentally I’d have thought death rates would be better worked out comparing recovered people vs fatalities, ie people through which the virus has run its course?
In any event it is either as bad as alarmists fear, or governments are behaving very strangely for a common cold. Neither case makes me sleep easy.
I have heard reports that 95% of imports have ceased coming from China. Strikes me as ominous.
Solrist:
Read this as well as the comments there.
To get true death rates for an illness, you have to include everyone infected. For the most part, we are missing the majority of cases, which are mild. So the statistics are skewed towards the more serious. That is true of nearly every illness in the early stages of reporting.
Also, I believe the best statistics so far are the ones from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. See this post for my discussion of that.
Did anyone really expect that there would not be significant numbers of people who just didn’t care if they infected others, or who may even do so out of malicious glee?
Have we forgotten the stories on the San Fran bathhouses? Forgotten the bi-guys who deliberately or indifferently infected their wives? The pervert dentist who infected some?
If the lengthy and often repeated social issue discussions related here and elsewhere have proven one thing, they have proven that the craving for identification and inclusion varies wildly in the human population, and seems even to manifest to some degree in political stances. And in addition, the desire of some to “punish” innocent others for, or to spread the misery of, some misfortune they have experienced is not particularly uncommon, if the very definition of moral evil.
Solrist, I was referring to democratically elected governments. They may be overreacting but only time will tell. My point is that a top concern is ensuring the government’s survival. Call me cynical.
I have no doubt that government leaders are being advised by competent infectious disease professionals to halt the spread by taking these actions. I am encouraged that Chinese imports have been cut by 95%. Good. Stop it at the border.
Sadly for those people who are already infected, let the virus run its course. COVID-19 will join the infamous ranks of H1N1 and others. We will learn from this so as to better combat the next outbreak. It will be a brighter day soon.
Most people probably saw this from a week ago.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-patient-ignored-self-isolation-order-to-go-to-business-event/
DNW, yes I read that. Perhaps government should stop banning straws and raising gas taxes to concentrate on imposing harsh penalties on quarantine violators.
Brian & DNW – there does seem to be a mismatch of priorities for legislators, doesn’t there?
huxley – back to the telecommuting – there’s a paragraph in this post about that, among other things.
Good advice to anyone here still employed or employeeing (there seem to be an awful lot of retired folks in Neo’s Salon, but maybe you still have kids and grandkids in the workforce).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelbernick/2020/03/09/the-workplace-in-the-time-of–coronavirus-part-i-legal-guidelines-for-navigating-the-upheaval/#acdbb586f117
h/t PowerLine yesterday.