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On coronavirus COVID-19

The New Neo Posted on by

I wrote a rough draft last night for a huge post about coronavirus. But I got a very late start today due to an excess of busyness with other, non-blog things, as well as other topics and posts.

It happens sometimes.

So that coronavirus post isn’t coming today. But I just wanted to let you know that I’m not ignoring the topic, and that a post or maybe even a 2-parter should be coming soon.

You can talk about COVID-19 here, though, if you like. A very very short summary of my stance at the moment is that (a) we don’t know much (b) and yet there’s a ton of misinformation and/or misleading information out there; and (c) a lot of people are trying to stir up premature panic, and have been quite successful in doing so.

Comments

On coronavirus COVID-19 — 51 Comments

  1. (c) a lot of people are trying to stir up premature panic, and have been quite successful in doing so.

    neo: I would add:

    (d), a lot of people are trying to tamp down realistic concerns about the virus.

    You are probably among (d), judging by this post and your previous.

    I find it interesting that those who sagely tug their chins and worry about the possible disaster of a Sanders presidency tend to be the same people who brush off the possible disaster of a COVID-19 pandemic.

    I don’t consider COVID to be the end of the world or anywhere near it, but judging by the recent numbers out of South Korea, Italy and Iran, it looks like we’ve lost control of the virus and it’s going to be a factor in the future.

    I’m watching to see if COVID backs off with the warmer weather and what happens when China lifts their quarantine on several hundred million people.

  2. Agree with last paragraph completely. The hysterics on this drive me nuts. Not saying it’s not something to have a level of concern about but the click bait panicky nature of many is awful. Sadly Instapundit seems to have bought into it with tons of links to hysterics.

    But the fact that Rod Rosensteins sister is a higher up at the CDC and was the one that went full on panic yesterday sending the market tumbling further is rich.

    The interconnectedness of these bureaucrats is never ending.

  3. Huxley,

    The problem is the fear mongers like Rosensteins sister don’t get through because people have eyes and see no evidence of this so going all hair on fire doesn’t work with them.

  4. Disclaimer: I am not a medical professional, so all of this is IMHO.

    I’ve been watching this topic for the last several weeks. There’s still very little known and some of what is known is suspect. Just on general principles, I don’t believe the Chinese numbers, and I really would not be at all surprised if various Western nations are holding back information – it’s already clear how incredibly stupid people are when stampeding in panic.

    It’s been my stance from the beginning – once it was clear that direct human-to-human transmission was possible, and apparently fairly easy (eg, the Webasto case in Germany) – that the actual number of people who have been exposed to the virus is vastly higher than numbers indicate. You can reasonably assume at this point that virtually all of the millions of people in the densely populated Chinese cities initially hit have been exposed. (You can also assume that every person on the Diamond Princess was exposed.) If they actually are counting deaths in the low thousands, it means it’s really not much more deadly than seasonal flus which kill tens of millions every year anyway.

    Logically, you cannot have a virus which is on one hand easily transmissible and on the other hand, not rampant in a closely packed urban setting. Thus all of the original counts are skewed sharply toward people sick enough to seek medical care, omitting huge numbers of people who aren’t and never were. It is not reasonably possible anywhere to test every one of millions of asymptomatic people, or people who have minor cold/flu symptoms during cold/flu season. It’s not as if the normal cold/flu viruses politely took the season off so this new virus could have the stage to itself.

    The latter is the second thing I wonder about. Since everyone is obsessed with testing for a new virus, are they assuming every sick person who tests positive for this coronavirus can only be sick because of it, not because of other viruses in circulation? It’s been hard to get an answer to that, as in, “We tested for the flu A, B and C variants that are common this season in our area, and got a negative result, and then we tested for COVID-19.”

    Since so much is unknown, the situation has to be watched with caution. There’s ample evidence that older people and those already ill need to be particularly cautious; what we’ve seen so far suggests that COVID-19 is more likely to kill in that group, vs the young and healthy, as was the case with the 1918 Spanish flu. But after saying that, I do think coverage so far has been needlessly over-the-top and hysterical.

  5. Neo: “(c) a lot of people are trying to stir up premature panic, and have been quite successful in doing so.”

    Yep. Tucker Carlson has been hair on fire during his show this week. I like a lot of Tucker’s ideas, but he seems fixed on the incompetence of the federal government and why aren’t they doing more? At this time, it appears that our government is doing about all that they can. Too little is known at this point to make any predictions – except that the markets will suffer and there will be a run on medical masks and gloves.

    As one who would probably develop life threatening symptoms (I’m 87 and have chronic illness) if I contracted the virus, I am concerned. I am in a state of watchful waiting. It appears that most who contract the virus have very mild symptoms. It also appears that the death rate is about 2-3% of those infected. A vaccine will not be available for another 9-12 months. A drug used for Ebola successfully cured the man who was treated at Everett, Washington’s Providence Hospital.
    It seems to have an incubation period of two weeks. The hope is that, like the flu, it will lose strength after warmer weather sets in.

    Wash your hands frequently, keep your counters clean, don’t cough into your hands, drink lots of fluids, etc. – the usual anti-flu precautions apply. I will begin to worry more when more cases turn up in Washington state.

  6. A couple of things I have noticed recently. And they are, of course, anecdotal, which we all know is the opposite of data;

    There has been a sharp uptick in comments over at Instapundit by, we’ll call them ‘non-regulars’, rather than bots or concern trolls. But there has been a lot of them and they are all pushing the Panic Porn button.

    It’s almost like some group is taking advantage of people’s concerns and fears, which may be justified, and trying to ramp them up. And they appear in the same way, with the same timing concern trolls appear when certain topics related to Trump, the CDC or Coronavirus appear. There are a couple of regulars over there with medical backgrounds and they get consistently shouted down by these people.

    Make of that what you will.

    Also, I comment there and a couple other places that use Disqus, under a different screen name than Fractal Rabbit. I have noticed that for the past three days any comment I make regarding this subject goes into moderation immediately. It does eventually come out. But immediate moderation is odd. And my general stance has been cautious, preparedness over panic.

    I’ve heard some others who are trying to downplay the panic have experienced the same with Disqus in various places.

    Once again, make of that what you will.

    But my theory is, regardless of how real this crisis is, there are some bad actors out there trying to use it to harm this administration by causing panicked reactions to the news, by trying to cause negative effects to the market in an election year.

    Call me paranoid if you want but I think various Deep State/Globalism aligned operators have found an angle exploit in this virus.

  7. huxley:

    You probably should wait for the post before placing me in a category, even “probably.” Of course, after you read what I have to say, you may still decide to place me in that category. But I have reasons and supportive data for saying what I said.

  8. Griffin – I saw that story.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/25/odd-coincidence-rogue-cdc-official-pushing-coronavirus-panic-button-is-rod-rosensteins-sister/

    I marked a couple of comments that addressed the “to panic or not to panic” question. Excerpting just a few lines here, with some follow-on posts:

    Mac says: February 25, 2020 at 8:46 pm
    … the biggest danger, to domestic political interests, is what happens if this virus gets lose in the huge homeless populations of LA, SF, Portland, Seattle, NYC, Baltimore and other places.These populations are all high risk for any similar diseases. They would overload the public health system and hospitals in those areas.

    Mr_Mayhem says: February 25, 2020 at 8:07 pm
    I think she is spot on accurate with that “panic button” description of reality. It’s not really panic, it’s realistic honesty. ...Rational preparation falls between ignorance and panic- it’s a spectrum, not either/or. ..now it’s about survival by prudent planning and material preparation, at all levels of society down to the individual.

    Mark Smith says: February 26, 2020 at 7:26 am
    I am predicting that one of the few benefits of the Covid-19 pandemic is that it will suck up so many federal and state resources that 6 months from now, no one will be talking about climate change at all, but more about survival.

    realeyecandy1 says: February 25, 2020 at 7:58 pm
    Regardless I think we should all stay prepared for something sinister. I have been prepping for a few days and still need some things. I am looking at it like it’s a snowstorm, flood, etc. Best have some extras that you eat anyway and then not worry.

    AustinHoldout says: February 26, 2020 at 1:13 am
    The dire warnings from this woman don’t have to come to fruition for the public to be triggered into a panic that will cause food and gas shortages, so I think RealEyeCandy’s advice is good.

    Texian says: February 25, 2020 at 8:14 pm
    I understand their concern.. so let’s start by putting Congress under quarantine until after the election.. lock ’em up..

    * * *
    Texian wins my vote.

    One Treeper linked this very good graphic.
    https://covid19info.live/

    The first comment is a very valid concern.

    https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/484602-san-francisco-declares-state-of-emergency-over-coronavirus

  9. “I find it interesting that those who sagely tug their chins and worry about the possible disaster of a Sanders presidency tend to be the same people who brush off the possible disaster of a COVID-19 pandemic.”

    Call up Wikipedia! We’ve got a new definition of “non sequitur!”

    Mike

  10. Here are some “official” information sites, via CTH.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/National-Biodefense-Strategy.pdf

    https://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-press-briefing-by-members-of-the-presidents-co-1841395411
    January 31, 2020 **
    PRESS BRIEFING
    BY MEMBERS OF THE PRESIDENT’S CORONAVIRUS TASK FORCE

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/25/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-outlines-ongoing-u-s-coronavirus-prevention-and-preparation-efforts/

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/26/president-trump-announces-600pm-press-briefing-on-coronavirus-a-review-of-response/

  11. This comment at CHT had a lot of “round up” links for discussion.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/26/president-trump-announces-600pm-press-briefing-on-coronavirus-a-review-of-response/comment-page-2/#comment-7888000

    Mr_Mayhem says:
    February 26, 2020 at 5:12 pm
    The most pressing coronavirus issue in the US, is US testing is not sufficient by their own admission. US coronavirus testing needs a major ramp-up, ASAP. Its not “misinformation” that US testing was not handled well so far and at this crucial moment in the spread of the disease.

    Is government testing the 7,600 self-quarantined people in California? That alone could become a big mess very quickly without testing. Remember the long incubation period. By the time cases show symptoms, the virus is way down the road into cascade cases.

    There are too many links to copy the whole thing, but all of them look interesting.

  12. I don’t think anyone really knows what the mortality rate would be in the US, if it got loose here. Our air pollution is much less serious than China’s, and we don’t smoke as much. And our medical facilities are probably a lot better. It seems clear this is not like the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed about 20% of patients. Or Ebola, which was truly frightening.

    So I’m not panicking. However, I am filling my freezer and pantry and checking medical supplies and pet supplies “just in case” there’s a quarantine around here. This is the sort of thing people do for emergency weather conditions. That’s reasonable.

    And I think I’ll keep taking the probiotic to boost my immune system.

  13. More via the Treepers’ network:

    This one was very thorough about prevention and preparing for disruption, based on past experience in a previous Oz “swine flu” pandemic.

    https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/

    For now, you are more than likely not living in an area experiencing widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. If more cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) keep rapidly appearing, and more of them can’t be traced to existing transmission chains, the efforts in some countries to contain COVID-19 will have failed.

    At some point, we’ll be in the main phase of a pandemic; epidemics of an efficiently transmitting pathogen spreading widely within the community of two or more countries, apart from the first one to report it.[1] A pandemic doesn’t necessarily mean the disease is severe. Also, this word may bring to the attention an event that some still manage to ignore when softer words are used. And let’s face it if we don’t start using this possibly scary word and talking about and planning for the possibilities now – how much more panic and fear will result because we were taken totally by surprise?

    For once, let’s get ahead of what’s coming.

    https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

    For weeks we have been trying to get officials to talk early about the main goal of containment: to slow the spread of the virus, not to stop it. And to explain that containment efforts would eventually end. And to help people learn about “after containment.” This risk communication has not happened yet in most places.

    So here is one more pitch for openness about containment. Officials: Please read Containment as Signal, Swine Flu Risk Miscommunication, which we wrote in 2009.
    One horrible effect of this continued “stop the pandemic” daydream masquerading as a policy goal: It is driving counter-productive and outrage-inducing measures by many countries against travelers from other countries, even their own citizens back from other countries. But possibly more horrible: The messaging is driving resources toward “stopping,” and away from the main potential benefit of containment – slowing the spread of the pandemic and thereby buying a little more time to prepare for what’s coming.

    We hope that governments and healthcare institutions are using this time wisely. We know that ordinary citizens are not being asked to do so. In most countries – including our United States and your Australia – ordinary citizens have not been asked to prepare. Instead, they have been led to expect that their governments will keep the virus from their doors.
    …
    Hardly any officials are telling civil society and the general public how to get ready for this pandemic.

    Even officials who say very alarming things about the prospects of a pandemic mostly focus on how their agencies are preparing, not on how the people they misperceive as “audience” should prepare. “Audience” is the wrong frame. We are all stakeholders, and we don’t just want to hear what officials are doing. We want to hear what we can do too.

    We want – and need – to hear advice like this:

  16. Trump and VP Pence just gave a sensible press conference.

    The other thing I think we have going for us here is that we DON’T have a centralized health care system. Right now, all over the country, there are clinics and hospitals making preparations, laying in supplies, and doing training.

  17. Is anyone holding World Pandemic Bonds in their retirement portfolio?
    I had no idea such things existed until now.
    Evidently, you can invest in (bet on) anything.
    What it means, bottom line, is that there are two factions who have diametrically opposed interests in the declaration of pandemic – presumably by WHO; if not, by who?

    That means there is a lot of skin in the panic game.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/02/25/odd-coincidence-rogue-cdc-official-pushing-coronavirus-panic-button-is-rod-rosensteins-sister/comment-page-3/#comment-7885748

    MaineCoon says:
    February 25, 2020 at 9:30 pm
    FTA: QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Have you been called in by the World Bank because of the coronavirus? The rumor is you are advising on this pandemic from a financial crisis perspective. Yes or no? Some say you have a financial interest in not calling this a pandemic. Care to comment?

    ANSWER: Yes, we have been called in to do studies and forecasts based on the coronavirus. No, we have no financial interest either way. That makes a really stupid rumor. We do not do such projects on some sort of a contingency basis. I am not at liberty to say by who. However, if there is a pandemic, the World Health Organisation gets to keep money and the bondholders lose. You figure out who would be asking for help.

    For those who are not part of the conspiracy networks, this is related to the outstanding World Bank Pandemic Bonds which will come due for expiration this July here in 2020. This will be in the neighborhood of $500 million which is perhaps a structured derivative time bomb that most people have never heard of.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/half-billion-pandemic-derivatives/

    An explanation from that link to Armstrong:

    These pandemic bonds were sold to investors as a giant gamble in the global financial casino. The World Bank sold “pandemic bonds” which were a scheme like no other. In 2017, these bonds were sold to private investors on the premise that they would lose their money if any of six deadly pandemics hit. They did not pay out in 2019 when the Ebola virus broke out in Africa. The World Bank announced the creation of these structured bonds in May 2016 at the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Governors meeting in Sendai, Japan.

    The World Health Organisation will keep the money and will use it to fight the outbreak. Investors bought the bonds and received regular coupon payments in return, which were substantial in this world of negative interest rates. If there is an outbreak of disease turned into a pandemic, then investors don’t get their initial money back. There are two varieties of debt that are scheduled to mature in July 2020.

    The first bond issue raised $225 million and features an interest rate of around 7%! That was substantial. Payout on the bond is to be suspended if there is an outbreak of new influenza viruses or coronavirus. The second type of bond was even riskier which raised $95 million with an interest rate of more than 11%. This second type of bond keeps investors’ money if there is an outbreak of Filovirus, Coronavirus, Lassa Fever, Rift Valley Fever, and/or Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever.

    Then the World Bank issued $105 million derivative that works in a similar way.

    Obviously, we have cyclical models that also cover disease. It does not take much to figure out that we would be called in to project the risk. It would be in the interest of the World Health Organisation to declare this coronavirus a pandemic. They would benefit from the cash. The bondholders will lose.

    We have NOT been called in by the World Bank. That much I can say.

  18. Kate on February 26, 2020 at 6:58 pm said:
    Trump and VP Pence just gave a sensible press conference.

    The other thing I think we have going for us here is that we DON’T have a centralized health care system. Right now, all over the country, there are clinics and hospitals making preparations, laying in supplies, and doing training.
    * * *
    Some hospitals and providers will do a better / worse job than others, but maybe they won’t all make the same mistakes at the same time.
    Bernie and the Democrats want to change that.

  19. Common sense would tell us it’s not nothing but you’ve got those who think it will be a huge pandemic killing millions and then you have those clinging to conspiracies that think it’s only a common cold being used to hurt Trump and the stock market. [Rush Limbaugh]

    The extremes on both ends are not helping. I’d say similar to the flu, be careful when traveling, wash hands, go to the doctor if you get something that feels like the flu.

  20. The whole idea that Bloomberg News is reporting on political issues while Michael Bloomberg is running for President is amazing. They just had a couple talking heads (one in Sydney, one in DC) criticizing the appointment of Pence to head this because he is anti science. Which is ridiculous of course but also it’s stupid because I highly doubt Pence will be burning the midnight oil in the laboratory.

    It really would be something to watch the Democrats attack Trump over Fox while ignoring Bloomberg over his own media company.

  21. I am a prepper, as are my siblings. We’ll be ready to bug out to our cabin on a lake in Northern Minnesota if a pandemic reaches the USA. Up north there are very few people (except during high summer – July & August) and the lake is full of fish and the woods are full of deer and other game. So, I am not worried about the Corona virus.

    I agree there is a coordinated effort to create panic and crash the economy because orangemanbad. I don’t think it will be successful.

  22. The official Chinese numbers are lies. Any policymaker or Talking Head who doesn’t state this out front loud and regularly is either a fool or disingenuous. I guess this is my primary filter for ignoring commentators.

    1.4 or 1.5 (They lie about their population numbers too and it is widely believed that have overstated by at least 100M) Billion people have gone collectively ape shit since January 23, the date of the Wuhan Shutdown. It’s not a small thing at all.

    I would recommend interested readers dig around in Twitter to find reposted photos and videos from Weibo to get a feel for what things look like on the ground inside China now. Be aware that many, not all, but many Mainland Chinese posting on Twitter are disinformation agents. Twitter, of course is blocked behind the Great Firewall, so if a Mainlander is on Twitter, the first question to be asked is Why? Some are trying to get news out, and others are paid agents or bots.

    I was walking along the waterfront yesterday afternoon enjoying the unseasonably blue sky and the rare ability to count the rocks on nearby mountainsides. This is usually impossible in Hong Kong due to spillover air pollution from China which is particularly bad in Winter given that prevailing airstreams come off the continental landmass then. Suddenly occurred to me that whilst I could still see the occasional large container ship passing through the Lamma Channel headed for the container terminals, there was *none* of the usual lighter and smaller ship heavy traffic. In other words the largest ships are still working their regular routes — which they may have begun before virus issues began to loom larger, but there is very little *local* traffic around the Pearl River Delta and North or South of that.

    The more investment-minded readers here will know to google for China Economy watching sites which have over the years developed various proxy measures of Chinese economic activity — these are necessary because (of course) the official economic figures produced by China at all levels are, funnily enough, Lies. Bit of a trend this lying business. It’s almost as if when a Mainland Government entity opens its mouth… but I digress.

    Anyway, one useful proxy is coal consumption since this tells us something about heavy industry. Not. Looking. Good.

    Another very simple proxy is to Apple.com and spec up a MacBook Pro 16”. Don’t look at the base model because they will have greater stock keeping levels for it. Spec up something that’s more likely to be Build To Order and then check out Apple’s estimated delivery date. Right now it’s a month out instead of the usual several days. A month out is ‘optimistic’. When it becomes two weeks or one week then will know something useful about Chinese economic output.

    What all of this means for Westerners living in the West is hard to say. Based on what I’ve seen here:

    Stock up on basic essential supplies. We have no idea how fragile our logistics and other systems are until it’s too late. Is all very well to laugh at panic buyers… But if said panic buyers stripped the shelves and you can’t eat, well where’s your intellectual and moral superiority then?

    Make contingency plans for relatives who need regular medical care: Things like outpatient chemotherapy, dialysis, insulin supplies. I am pretty damn sure that a lot of people died in China because could not get to their dialysis sessions because their block was quarantined and/or the hospital they usually went to was chaotically overloaded with Coronavirus cases.

    I hope it turns out to be a fizzer. But even a fizzer can be the straw that broke the systemic over-complexity camel’s back. A little preparation is a good thing. Official pronouncements will aim to avoid mass panic. This is good too. But it also means that official pronouncements *could* be understating the problem. So be smart and make some simple preparations.

  23. For the medically inclined, do we have direct evidence of an unusually long incubation period for COVID-19, or is it based on still assuming that an infected person could only have been infected by a known infected person or by visiting a suspect area? So when patient John Smith goes to the doctor with a fever and tests positive for COVID-19, there’s a scramble to come up with when Mr. Smith was last in China, or in the company of a person known to have tested positive to the virus – rather than accepting that the virus by this point is everywhere, and exposure might have been a couple of days ago.

    This approach might be useful when tracing Ebola contacts, but it seems to me that this went out the window as soon as it became known that this virus is easily transmissible by non-intimate contact and that many – perhaps even most – infected people have only minor symptoms and are never known to be infected.

    Related to this is the rather bizarre handwringing about recent outbreaks in places like Italy that go along the lines of “There’s no known connection to China… HOW IS IT HERE????” Because it’s an infectious virus, being carried around the world by people? Why is that mysterious in any way?

  24. KyndllG:

    Yep.

    There’s talk of incubation periods of up to 27 days. Could well be longer in some or even many people. We simply don’t know at present.

    It’s possible the initial Wuhan outbreak began in early November. It was certainly in the wild showing up in hospitals in mid-December. Took until January 23 for China to go into full-on medieval mode and shut down Wuhan and then the rest of the country to various degrees over the next few days.

    So let’s pick a round number of 10 weeks from beginning of outbreak until Wuhan became News. At which point rich Chinese bolted for foreign parts and also a whole bunch of Chinese also headed overseas for their pre-booked CNY vacations. Jan 23 + 10 weeks gets us to April 2.

    So… by crudest of all possible crude metrics, if I were living in a big city anywhere else in the world, I wouldn’t expect a Wuhan style shutdown before end of March.

    It could still be nothing. We don’t know.

    Barbara Tuchman fans will know how long, sweet and idyllic the Summer of 1914 was.

  25. FWIW I haven’t bolted to my ‘home’ country because once it became big news back in late January, I figured then that airports and planes were most likely places to bump into the virus. Have now updated my Bayesian Priors and just assume it’s rampant out in the wild and that the best thing to do is maintain good personal hygiene and health habits and make some simple disaster preparations and otherwise carry on with life as usual.

    One of the biggest risks right now is traveling because could end up getting quarantined with genuinely sick (with who knows what) people as part of some general bureaucratic nightmare. This has been happening in China. People get rounded up for having a high temperature and locked up in unsanitary ‘hospitals’ — basically just closely spaced beds in indoor statdiums.

  26. What Zaphod wrote.

    We simply can’t trust PRC numbers to be accurate. And that makes a HUGE difference.

    For example what if the number of infections is an order of magnitude higher because those who have a mild reaction don’t bother getting medical care?

    What if that actual mortality rate is higher because overwhelmed medical staff determine a non-virus cause of death?

    Hopefully, infection and mortality numbers from Europe will be more accurate.

  27. Zaphod,

    If one haven’t read A Distant Mirror, one isn’t a Tuchman fan. There is no new thing under the sun, there is only deja vu.

  28. “We simply can’t trust PRC numbers to be accurate.”

    But we’re now getting numbers from other places, like Italy.

    As far as I can tell, it appears that COVID-19 is showing roughly the same or slightly lower mortality rate than the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu…say around 3%. What that would mean is…

    1. A disease with a 97% survival rate is NOT the end of the world. You’re still going to have to watch “The Walking Dead” for your apocalypse fix.

    2. If a disease that kills 3% of the people who get it infects 500 million people, that’s 15 million deaths. So this could get very bad, depending on how much better we’ve gotten at handling this stuff in the last century, but the biggest danger isn’t from the disease. It’s from our overly complicated, globally extended, just-in-time economic system melting down. It’s fascinating to see people thinking they can use this virus against Trump without realizing that it is actually a dagger aimed straight at the heart of the neoliberal open borders status quo that Trump rails against.

    Mike

  29. We know too much about molecular biology to be deathly fearful of this virus. We know it’s exact RNA sequence. Look up interferons (people with systemic virus infections often do not get other and different viral infections at the same time —owing to interferon.) Look up short interfering RNAs, siRNAs. We have several good ideas about drugs. Eg remdesivir. A lot of us will get deep dry coughs, but so what…every winter we get something; and good effective therapy will come soon. Don’t worry.

    Besides, we are going to have to do something about what is happening in Idlib….a unmitigated disaster. Another Rwanda.

  30. The apparently rapid spread in Italy is troubling. If it spreads that easily outside China, then we can’t take too much comfort in our better hygiene and sanitation. It is frustrating that more detailed information about the virus’s risks and effects is so slow to emerge.

    Interesting accounts on Youtube from both an American and a Dane about how their respective governments got them out of Wuhan. While it’s alarming that such serious efforts are necessary, it’s also a little reassuring to see some competence in action.

  31. Dnaxy:

    I admire your promethean optimism. Remember that when the Zombie Hordes are snacking on your liver in front of you.

    Actually ‘we’ do NOT have to do anything about what is happening in Idlib. Yes to it being a humanitarian disaster in an already over-egged pudding. In the longer run less cruel to all concerned to stand off and let it burn itself out.

    No Man is an Island, taken to the extreme is pernicious stupidity.

    Managerialist Do-Gooderism may yet be the death of us all.

  32. The MSM loves panic induction.
    Plus, lack of reason is rampant among the Asians, all wearing masks while crowded together. Do you really think those masks will block the inhalation or exhalation of virus particles which are ultra-tiny compared to bacteria? The viruses, including corona, do not have to be carried in nasal secretory drops. Do the Chicomms not ever touch one another and so transmit corona that way?

    It is reported corona remains viable in non-biologic environments, e.g. table tops, for several days.

    We must also beware the idiocy of government control. I understand the CDC, the infection experts, advised that the American Yokohama cruise line passengers be segregated into two groups, those who tested virus-positive, and those who tested negative, and returned to USA in separate planes. State Dept overruled, and put them ALL on the same plane to the USA. Wearing masks, I guess. Segregation is not PC.

  33. Cicero:

    With you on the stupidity of governments and institutions in general.

    Not with you on Asians lacking ability to Reason. I am, to put it politely, an extreme Caucasian Chauvinist, as anyone reading my past posts might have easily inferred.

    I have lived in various parts of Asia for a long time now. If anything, Chinese are far more pragmatic, calculating, and prone to the use of Reason with a Capital R than Westerners.

    I have the greatest of respect for Chinese ability to cut to the chase when the chips are down or when they sense advantage.

    (Exercise for the Reader: Argue convincingly that Reason conveys any meaningful survival advantage in a highly unpredictable quickly-changing environment.)

    It’s a bit like the point I made earlier about panic buying. You might be all reasonable and superior intellectually and *not* panic buy because that after all is the unreasonable herd doing what the herd does. But that attitude won’t feed your children after the herd has stripped the shelves. The Reasonable Thing to do is get in there and get shelf-stripping yourself Stat. (Or prepare in advance of the Herd).

    Has it occurred to you that most of the populace out here are well-aware that face masks have little or no value? However when (in China) government minions beat, arrest, otherwise round you up for going outside your front door not wearing one, are you going to stand there and Reason with them? I think not.

    For all your Reason, humans are mimetic apes. You work with that… or you get nowhere.

    Wearing a mask says to everyone ‘I take my responsibility (including hand washing) to others seriously during this epidemic’.

    Forgetting governments for a moment, as Taleb has shown wrt to things like Halal food labeling, it only takes a very small vocal minority to drive social behavior. People go along to get along because unlike in movies there simply isn’t enough time in the day to Reason with everybody.

    It’s a bit boring seeing this Chicom thing over and over again. China is ruled by the CCP which at this late stage has long become an oligarchic expansionist Han-supremacist technotyranny. They keep the old name on everything so that guys like you + their subject billion or so find it harder to think clearly about who they are.

    Regarding US governmental idiocy. From my happy vantage point in HK, I see it all over the world. This thing was obviously going to be a problem from last week of January and it has been quite incredible to sit here reading on one hand about what’s going on in China and on the other seeing the Western world carrying on with its usual trivialities. Maybe people will start to notice when they can’t buy their usual crap from Amazon?

  34. Zaphod, thanks for all your comments, and I hope you continue to do well.

    Some of the same people who screamed “xenophobia” when the Trump administration closed off flights from China are the ones claiming he isn’t “doing enough.” It seems to me that rational and effective policies have been followed in the US.

    Just today there are articles in the local news about new EMS procedures. Patients are asked about any travel; previously it was travel to China. If symptoms might be COVID19, the hospital is notified before the patient arrives so appropriate procedures can be implemented.

    This whole mess is a kick in the teeth to the “globalism” enthusiasts.

  36. If Barry HUSSEIN Obama were president today and he implemented the same exact policies that Trump has, Barry would be considered a genius.

    Hate Trump all you want, but the economy today and workers today are better off, economically, than under Barry.
    But there were ZERO complaints from the media, liberal progressive groups, Hollywood,, academia, etc., etc., about the state of the economy during Barry’s rule.

    Goes to show that what really matters to the liberal progressive establishment is the attainment of absolute power, and they could give a flying F**k about the citizenry.

  37. What I’m not understanding is why it has spread so rapidly in Italy and why their death rate is so much higher than that other countries are experiencing. In the U.S., we have 42 cases off the Diamond Princess, 3 cases among those repatriated from Wuhan, and 15 other cases. Of those 15 cases, 12 were identified prior to February 10. Not a single person has died yet.

  38. The official Chinese numbers are lies.

    Countries outside of China are experiencing lower mortality rates than is China. About what do you fancy Chinese authorities are lying?

  39. Iran’s declared mortality rate is far out of whack, an exception to other nations. But then, Iran, so.

  40. “In the U.S., we have 42 cases…”

    I did run across information that looks legit that the US is doing just what I described in my second post: assuming that COVID-19 can only come from recent travel to affected areas or from known positives. While reading about the new case “of unknown origin” it was discussed that they’re only testing for COVID-19 under those circumstances. That cannot be an accurate reflection of reality. Thanks to global travel and a virus that can be transmitted by relatively casual contact by people who don’t have significant symptoms – and may never have significant symptoms – COVID-19 has been in wide circulation for weeks.

    In short, there are a lot more than 42 cases in this country.

    I have to believe that the CDC knows better but thinks they’re averting a panic.

    Based on watching this from when there were only a few hundred reported cases in urban areas of millions, I believe that the truth, if fully known, would actually remove the panic and hysteria. There’s no way that there are not millions of people in China alone, much less all the places that virus-shedding people have since traveled, who have COVID-19, and if you look at the count of serious illness and deaths against that, it is likely to look much more like a typical seasonal flu in terms of risk.

    But, since some places are only testing a tiny subset of the population (US) and some places don’t have the resources to test more people (China), and in either case, it’s not practical to test all of the billions of people in the world, the total count of infected is unknowable.

  41. In short, there are a lot more than 42 cases in this country.

    Just make the numbers up if it helps you feel better. You might try reading more than one sentence fragment of what someone else says.

  42. “Just make the numbers up if it helps you feel better. You might try reading more than one sentence fragment of what someone else says.”

    Wow, OK. I was merely using that as a launch point for my comment. Yes, indeed, if you check right this moment, bnonews is showing 60 cases reported for the US. Explain, in context of a country with a population of 329,333,749 (https://www.census.gov/popclock/ but it’ll be different if you check a few minutes from now) that changes the point I’m making.

    If you’ll recall the Webasto case, it was plainly illustrated that COVID-19 is easily transmissible by casual workplace and household contact, and often manifests as minimal seasonal illness. Based on the news of the time, none of the German Webasto employees or their family members were ill enough to seek medical attention, much less have ever been known as being part of a COVID-19 infection chain, had the original Chinese colleague not later become more sick on return to China. It is impossible to think that is not going on here, especially if our country’s testing policy is to only test for COVID-19 if there is a known history of travel or contact. This is a novel virus, but that idea has been obsolete for weeks.

  43. On Fox Business this morning, a guy who wrote a book on testing methods was calling for the US to give the okay to a variety of tests which have just been developed. And right after that segment ended, news came in that new tests for COVID-19 have been approved for use. The tests are easily produced and distributed.

  46. Re: Aesop’s map from yesterday. His map seems to go along with what I read that the virus can remain viable while under freezing conditions for a long time. Looking at the map note how the warmer regions are almost virus free. Seems very susceptible to warmer conditions. As spring arrives, will it greatly decrease?

  47. If you’re really in the market for conspiracy theories, this one is for you.

    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-chinas-secret-plan-to-weaponize-viruses/

    In a secret speech given to high-level Communist Party cadres nearly two decades ago, Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Chi Haotian explained a long-range plan for ensuring a Chinese national renaissance.
    …
    Chi explained the problem as follows: “Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or even Japan, [so] how much more living space can we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.”

    “We are not as foolish as to want to perish together with America by using nuclear weapons,” said the general. “Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves.” The answer is found in biological weapons. “Of course,” he added, “we have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind.”
    …
    Chi credits Deng Xiaoping with putting biological weapons ahead of all other weapon systems in the Chinese arsenal: “When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focus instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country.”
    …
    According to Gen. Chi, China’s overpopulation problem and environmental degradation will eventually result in social collapse and civil war. General Chi estimated that “more than 800 million” Chinese would die in such a collapse. Therefore, the Chinese Communist Party has no policy alternative.

    Either the United States is “cleaned up” by biological attacks, or China suffers national catastrophe.

    If accurate, they may have gotten the latter before the former.

    Not long after delivering his speech, Gen. Chi stepped down as Defense Minister in 2003, the same year as the SARS (coronavirus) outbreak in China. This was also (coincidentally) the same year Beijing decided to build the Wuhan P4 virology lab. Given Gen. Chi’s speech, is the novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan an accident occasioned by weaponizing the virus at the city’s P4 microbiology lab?

    Three data points are worth considering.

    Long story short:

    It’s highly probable that the 2019-nCoV organism is a weaponized version of the NCoV discovered by Saudi doctors in 2012.

  48. AesopFan, that conspiracy theory isn’t impossible, although of course not proved. There are several less off-the-edge sources saying that COVID-19 may have escaped from the Wuhan lab, inadvertently, one assumes. Hoist with their own petard, if so.

  51. AesopFan,

    I suspect that conspiracy has a few holes, since China has begun constructing carrier groups along with a navy that will soon be much larger than the USN.

    Assuming they don’t collapse because of you-know.

    But I have an addendum to that theory. They developed the bioweapon. But because they tested it upon prisoners- Chinese prisoners- the result was a virus that had evolved to be especially deadly to themselves.

    Oops. Own goal. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

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