Venezuela: not a coup
When I wrote yesterday’s post about the situation in Venezuela, I had assumed the uprising there supporting Maduro’s challenger Guaido was somewhat like a coup, albeit a justified one. But I hadn’t realized that the situation is less coup-like than I’d originally thought, although I was aware that Maduro’s last election was widely considered illegitimate and fraudulent both in Venezuela and abroad.
Blogger Daniel in Venezuela (who’s been my go-to guy for a long time for any Venezuela news) explains the rest:
– The election of Maduro in May 2018 has no legality or legitimacy. The election was convened outside the legal system (election in May to be sworn in in January, convened by an illegal constituent assembly, extremely unfavorable conditions for any candidate against Maduro, etc.)…
– The only Venezuelan political body that possesses the legitimacy of the ballot boxes and the constitutional legitimacy is the National Assembly. All others are 100% filled by the madurista regime sympathizers.
– On January 5, 2019 the National Assembly began its 2019 constitutional term and appointed a new board of directors supported by ALL opposition political parties. Juan Guaidó is the new president of the National Assembly.
– On January 10, by constitution mandate, an elected president has to be sworn in before the National Assembly (article 231). If he cannot do it because said assembly cannot sit, he will do it before a judge of the TSJ (supreme court). This was not the case in January since the National Assembly was in normal sessions. Nor is the argument of “contempt” of the Assembly valid since the oath is a symbol, not a law, and therefore the National Assembly is always valid for such ceremonies.
– The re-election of Maduro in May 2018 was not recognized,and thus he could not be sworn in before the Assembly, nor did this validate his oath of office before any other body…
– Therefore the National Assembly according to article 233 recognizes the lack of president in Venezuela and proceeds to the automatic assumption of the president of the National Assembly (Juan Guaidó in this case) as interim president until new elections are held in a period of 30 days.
– In this article 333 of the constitution supports the decision of the assembly since the Maduro regime has repeatedly violated the national constitution (appointment of judges at the wrong time, convocation to a constituent without a referendum, elections without guarantees, etc.) and therefore the Assembly is in duty to rescue the constitution.
– On January 23, Guaidó did not “swear” or “self-proclaim”. What Guaidó did on January 23 was to accept the responsibility of forming a 30-day interim government.
More at the link, but those are the basics.
A lot of people are spouting off about this without seeming to know any of it.
Here’s more from Daniel. I think this is especially of interest:
The regime has allowed, since Chavez time, the formation of armed paramilitary groups while there was an increase unchecked delinquency growth in popular areas so as to secure control. Once some those groups become discontent, the repression is mortal combat. In the traditional opposition areas, there are no weapons because Chavez took them away long ago.
Another reminder of the importance of the right to bear arms, and how aware dictators are of that fact.
Yes. I have been reading Babalu blog to keep up but this guy is better. Rubio has been on board and he probably has a lot of Venezuelans in Florida. The upper class went there and the middle class to Columbia. The poor, who supported Chavez, are now the ones rioting in Caracas and elsewhere.
Cuba controls Mr. Maduro’s personal security detail and has built a counterintelligence network around the high command. Venezuela’s 1,000 or so flag officers operate in silos and are spied on by minders.
Cuba is running Venezuela
A lot of people are spouting off about this without seeming to know any of it.
yeah? so?
been complaining for ages about that, didnt bother much enough i guess
bit late..
Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia flew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of U.S.-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.
A third source close to the Russian contractors also told Reuters there was a contingent of them in Venezuela, but could not say when they arrived or what their role was.
Russia, which has backed Maduro’s socialist government to the tune of billions of dollars, this week promised to stand by him after opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself president with Washington’s endorsement.
It was the latest international crisis to split the global superpowers, with the United States and Europe backing Guaido, and Russia and China urging non-interference.
Yevgeny Shabayev, leader of a local chapter of a paramilitary group of Cossacks with ties to Russian military contractors, said he had heard the number of Russian contractors in Venezuela may be about 400.
But the other sources spoke of small groups.
Russia’s Defence Ministry and Venezuela’s Information Ministry did not respond to requests for comment about the contractors. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “We have no such information.”
The contractors are associated with the so-called Wagner group whose members, mostly ex-service personnel, fought clandestinely in support of Russian forces in Syria and Ukraine, according to Reuters interviews with dozens of contractors, their friends and relatives.
Caracas Chronicles is another English language blog about Venezuela.
Artfldgr, Cuba has many intelligence agents embedded into Venezuelan society- especially the army and the national telecom company. Some estimate 15-20 thousand Cuban intelligence agents or military.
Gringo… they have more than that..
been following the little stuff for years and bringing it up here
to not much avail…
but in this case… what you have is russian military, traveling as civilians under false pretenses to fight.
what do yuou think 400 american green berets or Delta force can do?
now, what could they do as non people, with no id, no records, with complete freedom to do whatever and given nerve gas used to assasinate… well, no limit.. or do you think polonium drained from a nculear reactor is easy for the average person to ‘get’
your not thinking as to what it is when you send military that way
and what it means when they abandon their uniforms
in the past, they got shot just for doing that, even if they never got anywhere
by the way, take a guess how many, once done, mibght migrate up or have already migrated up and crossed the border… nothing like spetnaz ghosts running around eh?
Dont worry, the feminist corp here will make sure it stays communist
why would they let it do otherwise, that is EVIL
Omar Believes US Is Waging Coup in Venezuela
in a conflict, how many would fight agains their own people and sabotage to become what?
given you guys dont follow well outside your door and fill in with made up stuff
here, this is the wagner group
[after you learn, you think you want them in your back yard?]
Wagner Group
The Wagner Group also known as PMC Wagner, ChVK Wagner, or CHVK Vagner is a Russian paramilitary organisation. Some have described it as a private military company (or a private military contracting agency), whose contractors have reportedly taken part in various conflicts
and we fear corporate armies of america? we already have them from that other place… didnt you know that? dont you know what they do?
The founder of the company is reported to be Dmitriy Valeryevich Utkin
Dmitriy Utkin used to be a Ukrainian citizen
Up until 2013, he was a lieutenant colonel and brigade commander of a special forces (Spetsnaz GRU) unit (the 700th Independent Spetsnaz Detachment of the 2nd Independent Brigade) of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU)
what is the GRU? the military version of the KGB..
you see the KGB is really the one you know (sort of) and up front
but the GRU? they are the ones with assasination squads using poisons from Kamera…
so you still think this is a nothing?
yeah.. remember, das neiblung and the wangnering opera?
Radio Liberty cited insiders as saying that the Slavic Native Faith (a modern Pagan cult) is a faith favored by the leadership of the Wagner Group
[yeah, and you know what that is too, right?
Rodnovery is a modern pagan religion..
so this group has all the similar game trappings of the waffen SS leaders… wagner, paganism, etc..
still think its a nada?
In early 2016, Wagner had a membership of 1,000, which later rose to 5,000 by August 2017, and 6,000 by December 2017
t has been reported that Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [also known as Putins chef], who is also a chef for Russian President Putin, has links with Wagner [here is what he did to make america better…
Russian 2016 Influence Operation Targeted African-Americans on Social Media
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/us/politics/russia-2016-influence-campaign.html
you still want a few hundred of them wandering around the US over our open border now they have an excuse to be here?
wait, there is always MORE
so you still think this is a nothing?<
Nobody said that. Calm down.
They believe it is in reality a disguised branch of the Russian MoD [Ministry of Defense] that ultimately reports to the Russian government
so they work for the state, but claim not, and so, they can do anything they want, and who gets the trouble?
still want this and think its nothing?
Thus, Wagner contractors have been described as “ghost soldiers”, due to the Russian government not officially acknowledging them
as i said, do you want some of human kinds best trained ghosts floating around this side of the globe?
In September 2017, the chief of Ukraine?s Security Service (SBU) Vasyl Hrytsak said that in their opinion Wagner was in essence ?a private army of Putin? and that the SBU were ?working on identifying these people, members of Wagner PMC, to make this information public so that our partners in Europe knew them personally?
The Wagner Group has also been compared with Academi, the American security firm formerly known as Blackwater
Academi is an American private military company founded in 1997 by former Navy SEAL officer Erik Prince as Blackwater, renamed as Xe Services in 2009 and now known as Academi since 2011 after the company was acquired by a group of private investors
see… coporate warfare is alive and well
but why would we talki about it..
you think wagner is not much
but isnt that the whole point of a ghost…
example:
The PMCs acted mostly in the LPR, for whose authorities they allegedly conducted four political killings of separatist commanders… The killed commanders were in a conflict with the LPR’s president, Igor Plotnitsky [straight out of central casting!!] The LPR accused Ukraine of committing the assassinations, while unit members of the commanders believed it was the LPR authorities who were behind the killings. In late November 2017, the SBU published what they said were intercepted audio recordings that proved a direct link between Dmitry Utkin and Igor Cornet, the Interior Minister of the LPR, who was stated to had personally led the initiative of eliminating the dissident commanders
funny, but wherever russia goes, assasinations follow
still today… poor old man in uk
lots of wet works..
how about syria… neo talked about syria
but she nevr talked about wagner group, the GRU which is supposedly gone from the fall of russia and more… no, ALL that is left out and you guys cant make sense of any of it as most of the story is about these things with a veneer on it for idios to discuss and pretend they kinow!!
The Russian Defense Ministry dismissed the early reports by The Wall Street Journal about the Wagner Group’s operations in Syria as an “information attack”. However, sources within the Russian FSB and the Defense Ministry unofficially stated for RBTH that Wagner was supervised by the GRU
not one mention by neo
but it was in the right papers if you looked
They were in the role of frontline advisors, fire and movement coordinators and forward air controllers who provided guidance to close air support. When they arrived in Syria the PMCs received T-72 tanks, BM-21 Grad MLRs and 122 mm D-30 howitzers
[so americans and others were like in the past, fighting russia again, and again, kind of hidden as it was in korea, vietnam, etc.. makes it easy for the people here to be confused, eh?]
During the first Palmyra offensive, according to one of the contractors, the PMCs were used as “cannon fodder” and most of the work was conducted by them, with the regular Syrian Army, who he described as “chickens”, only finishing the job
An expert on Russian security at the IIR, Mark Galeotti, said they served as “shock troops” alongside the Syrian Army
and here is what they do too
On 30 July 2018, three Russian journalists (Kirill Radchenko, Alexander Rastorguyev [ru] and Orkhan Dzhemal [de]) belonging to the Russian online news organisation Investigation Control Centre (TsUR), which is linked to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, were ambushed and killed by unknown assailants in the Central African Republic, three days after they had arrived in the country to investigate local Wagner activities. The ambush took place 23 kilometers from Sibut when armed men emerged from the bush and opened fire on their vehicle. The journalists’ driver survived the attack,[258] but was afterward kept incommunicado by the authorities. In its response to the killings, Russia’s foreign ministry noted that the dead journalists had been traveling without official accreditation
BBC News and AFP said the circumstances of their deaths were unclear
According to the Interfax news agency, robbery could have been a motive. An expensive camera kit and more than 8,000 dollars disappeared from the scene, although three canisters of gasoline, which is considered a valuable commodity in the CAR, were left in the vehicle. A local official and their driver stated that the attackers were wearing turbans and speaking Arabic.
Russian and CAR state media initially reported that the authorities suspected Seleka rebels to be behind the killings. According to local residents, interviewed by Khodorkovsky’s investigators, around 10 people had camped out nearby before the ambush, waiting there for several hours. Shortly before the attack, they saw another car with “three armed white men … and two Central Africans” pass by.
Per an initial report in The New York Times, there was no indication that the killings were connected with the journalists’ investigation of the Wagner Group’s activities in the Central African Republic.
But a follow-up article cited a Human Rights Watch researcher who commented that “Many things don’t add up” in regards to the mysterious killings.
[snip]
Moscow-based defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer thought it was unlikely they were killed by Wagner’s PMCs, while the Ukrainian security service claimed that the PMCs were likely involved…
but……………
During their investigation, the journalists tried to enter the PMCs’ camp, but they were told that they needed accreditation from the country’s Defense Ministry. The accreditation was previously only given to an AFP journalist who was still not allowed to take any photographs or interview anyone. The killings took place one day after the journalists visited the Wagner Group encampment at Berengo
[and before they could write and say anything… or even be people who have seen some and could say X worked there and thats bad too.. so no, ghosts stay ghosts.. ]
Artfldgr:
When I wrote “spouting off about this,” the word “this” meant the subject matter of the post, which was the rules of succession in Venezuela and whether one could term what’s happening there now a “coup” or not.
On the other hand, it is well known that Cuba is heavily involved in Venezuela, and Russia is also involved. That’s no secret, really.
Nor do I recall people on the right saying this is a nothing.
Artfldgr:
Everybody involved in national security, and a good number of us not involved, knows exactly who the Wagner Group is. Nobody has any doubt that they are Russian soldiers operating under control of the Kremlin. Trump authorized the killing of 200 of them in an airstrike when they advanced toward a U.S. position in Syria; the first U.S. President to kill Russian soldiers since 1921.
So, as Mike K said, calm down.
The Venezuelan people voted for an ideology that inevitably leads to enslavement. They are reaping what they and the prior generation sowed.
Cuba was and is an object lesson in ‘the fruit’ of ‘the tree’ Venezuelan’s planted. Now Venezuela is providing another object lesson for humanity’s edification.
“Millenials have a higher opinion of socialism than of capitalism”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/rampage/wp/2016/02/05/millennials-have-a-higher-opinion-of-socialism-than-of-capitalism/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.fa658eff7a2c
Yes, they were and are being lied to but for a lie to resonate, you have to want to believe it’s true and also be willing to deny all evidence to the contrary.
Ignorance + the vote is all too often a fatal combination.
“for a lie to resonate, you have to want to believe it’s true and also be willing to deny all evidence to the contrary.” — Geoffrey
Same people who refuse to believe the evidence of the 2-hour Covington video against the false leftist narrative.
What a surprise.
Fortunately Neo has done her homework now. Her prior post on this topic was most distressing, averring that Guaido’s declaration was illegal.
Ok, neo. Be careful with your go-to guy for Venezuela because he’s biased.
What he’s not saying is that the big legal issue here is whether the Constituent is or isn’t legal, and that’s far from being obvious. If the Constituent is legal, then it becomes the top house, above the National Assembly.
So where’s the problem? the current Constitution is EXTREMELY bad written, and it’s not clear whether the president can or can not create the Constituent.
It depends on how you interpret it.
The most logical interpretation would be that a referendum should be necessary to create the Constituent. But that’s STILL an interpretation. It’s not explicitly stated in the Constitution.
Maduro controls the High Court, so he can impose his own interpretation (which is: the president can create the Constituent, the referendum only being necessary to enact the new Constitution). It’s less logical, but it’s possible. So you can see the problem here.
Is Maduro right? Nope. But he has legal basis. The whole situation is far from being easy.
Yann:
My point was not that there is no argument to be made against the legality of what Guaido and the legislature are doing. My point is that there is indeed a cogent legal argument for it. It is not clearly a coup, nor is it even likely a coup (and of course Maduro’s election was fraudulent).
Coups are not always bad by any means. But I originally thought this was a coup attempt, and now I wouldn’t call it that.
Ok, neo, you’re watching it from a American point of view.
One feature of Latin-American countries is that they consider the Law as a political weapon. Of course, that happens in every country… but in Latin-America, that’s a KEY element in politics.
For example: Maduro had legal basis for each and every thing he has done, and so does Guaido. Both of them are in a nowhere land between the law and a coup. I’m not saying that both situations are the same because they aren’t. I’m saying that there’s a common pattern here, which is cultural.
You can see the exact same pattern in Ocasio-Cortez. When she proposed to “replace” the High Court, that was the pattern behind: use the law as a weapon. Did you notice how often the law has been used against Trump as a political weapon? Well, I’d bet that the US is shifting quickly towards a more Hispanic culture, because that’s a Latin-American feature.
At the end of the day, Guaido is a far better option for Venezuela than Maduro, hands down. But when it comes to the Law, they are both using it the way it serves them best. It’s not about ‘what’s the law’ but ‘how can I use the law’. It’s a different mindset, and it’s a quite difficult one for culturally American people, since there’s a traditional worship to the Rule of Law that doesn’t exist in Latin-America (or in Hispanic US).
By the way, that Latin-American mindset, that’s the future one in US. Ocasio-Cortez is more or less the new standard: law is not something to be cared, but to be used. And that happens BOTH in right and left, because it’s not political, it’s cultural. Don’t think it’s a leftist problem: it’s a matter of time the right has the same mindset in US. Guaido doesn’t care about the Rule of Law, because (with very few exceptions) no Latin-American politician does.
UNSC met today on subject of Venezuela, issues report of meeting here: https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/sc13680.doc.htm
Daniel in Venezuela blog has a fresh post today also, dealing primarily with the inadequacy of the Venezuelan constitution on the question of calling new election in an absurd 30 days time. Good read.
Yann,
Venezuela has strayed so far away from its constitution that if you want to quibble, you can find flaws in the legal logic. In addition, there are some serious weaknesses and gaps in the existing constitution. Afterall, it was a constitution designed by Hugo Chavez to allow him to consolidate power. Nevertheless, the Opposition’s interpretation is far closer to the spirit of the document than anything the usurper regime is doing.
Neo,
I know Daniel personally. His knowledge and understanding of Venezuelan politics is profound. I am glad you found him as a source.