Why won’t Rubio quit?
Back when Rubio and Cruz were neck and neck and there was no clear frontrunner between them, I lamented that fact and pointed out that they were playing a game of Chicken that could be destructive to both and was helpful to Donald Trump’s candidacy.
But more recently the writing has been on the wall for Rubio, particularly since his abysmal showing in the March 8 primaries. I said subsequently that he should drop out but probably won’t, and now the calls for him to drop out have escalated and include most of his previous boosters.
His campaign is insisting he’s in it through Florida. But why? Here are some possibilities:
(1) He’s a delusional megalomaniac.
(2) He lives in an alternate universe where he has access to secret polling that runs counter to most of the other polls.
(3) He actually wants Trump to win the nomination, or at least wants Cruz to lose it.
(4) He continues to think if he can force a brokered convention he’ll be the winner, and is ignoring how bad he looks right now.
(5) He thinks Cruz has no chance to win even if he (Rubio) drops out, and therefore is staying in because he thinks that although it’s a longshot, it’s the only way that Trump might be defeated in the state.
I’ll go with Door 4. If it’s #5, I think it’s a short-sighted, self-serving misjudgment.
I am angry at Rubio. He was never my favored candidate (that was Walker, then Fiorina, then Cruz), but I was willing to support him when I thought he could be the frontrunner. Now I think he’s acting as a spoiler.
I’m am a Rubio supporter, and have long felt that he represents the best chance to win in November. That said, it’s time to go Marco, love you lots, but you didn’t catch fire. I felt the same way about Fiorina before him. I’m a little more pissed at Kasich, because he’s NEVER had a shot.
I think his people (the ones getting paid) are telling him to stay in until Florida. I’m sure he’s got the money for it right now. They still want to have a job. Maybe he’s hoping that the polling is wrong and the results will be closer than predicted. We saw this in other states where the polling didn’t match the outcome very well.
He said somewhere that he didn’t want to disappoint his supporters. Whether this is because he cares about them or because it means he loses them for later career moves, I’m not sure.
He’s desperate and his personal ambition has him convinced that if he rolls the dice and wins FL, in the case of a brokered convention, he can leverage his delegates into the VP slot.
I don’t think that (3) He actually wants Trump to win he nomination … is so far out of the question if all the info that Trump would not be able to take the general election is true, 2020 is only four years down the road giving Rubio plenty of time to re-habilitate and re-design his image. Some of us fear that the nation and the Republican Party will be so riven with strife by then that (1) He’s a delusional megalomaniac – could also apply.
I was starting to write about how confused I was about the importance of Florida to Rubio; but then I started to wonder. I’m wondering if he’s trying to set himself up for 2020/24 and that he has to, in his mind, at least win his home state if he’s to remain viable.
KRB
. . . at least win his home state if he’s to remain viable.
And yet Rubio’s future in electoral politics can very well be damaged if his current actions result in harming the nation in the long run. The relative weight he places on these two possible outcomes of the Florida primary, the one maintaining some sort of favor on the one hand, the other risking near all favor on the other must continue to puzzle us, if we assume he keeps his core interests as well as those of the nation in mind as he makes his decision. When people speak of handwriting on the wall, they aren’t speaking of what isn’t possible to see, mysterious though the sudden appearance of that handwriting may be.
Rubio needs to drop out immediately to save his reputation.
When he loses Florida, to Trump, he’ll permanently damage himself — like Perry — so that he never has a second shot.
Kasich needs to win such an absurd number of delegates that it’s over for him.
All that he’s doing is splitting the not-Trump vote.
If this dim duo dropped out — Trump would be finished.
The MSM — and Hillary — fully realize that Ted Cruz would rip Hillary to shreds in any presidential debate.
Romney he is not.
Hillary has Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Iraq stuffed into her baggage train.
Kasich topped out as Ohio’s governor.
With maturity, Rubio could yet make a solid run for the White House.
But for now, he’s done. Put a fork in him.
Unless Rubio’s certifiable, he must know that if it’s Pres Hillary, Bern or Plugs, and the path to citizenship comes up, and it will, a majority on both Houses can be cobbled together to pass it. Unless the right to vote is specifically delayed until at least 2021, he would never be president.
blert Says:
Rubio needs to drop out immediately to save his reputation.
Nope, not immediately. The best things he can do now are
1) Attack Trump one last time at tonight’s debate, then
2) Drop out on the 11th, giving his supporters 4 days to make the mental transition.
If he doesn’t drop out tomorrow, I expect him to drop out on the 15th or 16th.
I would prefer that he contribute to the team effort by dropping out sooner, but by no means will the race be over even if Trump wins both FL and OH.
If Rubio and Kasich stay in after the 15th, no mercy.
The entire right blogosphere shares your opinion, neo.
I think this will last no more than 5 days, and maybe less.
There was disappointment for the last week, but now it seems to be turning to anger.
Rubio needs to drop out before the Florida primary. It’s been noted elsewhere that so long as he’s not around for the Florida vote, then he can always sweep his poor showing under the rug. But if he loses Florida – particularly if he’s beaten by Cruz, which is looking possible at this point – then his political career will take a massive hit.
No one will pay much attention to the guy who came in *third* in his home state primary.
(sigh) #5. He can join Jeb Bush in the “it’s your fault” queue.
They deserve better but then, so does the nation. It is what it is.
Matt_SE:
By “immediately” I actually was thinking of at the close of tonight’s debate.
It will be interesting to see whether Rubio continues to attack Trump tonight. I’m not at all sure he will.
Rubio is the only one without a job to return to. That makes dropping out a lot tougher.
Also, if Kasich keeps rallying in the polls, Rubio looks that much more likely as a compromise candidate at a brokered convention. That is, if Kasich can increase in delegate count, and the pro-Cruz rally peters out, there are three non-Trumps headed into the convention. I don’t think Rubio would be their choice, but I can understand it if *he* thinks so.
#4, but he is making a big mistake. He is now looking at a dismal finish in FLA, a distant 2nd at best. His best option for the long term is to suspend his campaign bright and early tomorrow morning. He’s a smart fellow, figure it out Marco.
I’ll take a variation of #3: Sen. Rubio is a tool of GOPe, and they hate Sen. Cruz as much as they hate Trump. Ultimately, GOPe will settle for a wounded Trump winning the nomination and losing badly to Sec. Hillary Clinton.
1. The elites have always planned to make money from President Hillary.
2. The elites will use Hillary’s presidency as a continual source of distractions.
3. The elites will hold up the 2016 election disaster as a way to discipline the mob: “See what happens when you ignore us.”
Neo – You missed the most likely:
(6) Rubio’s hoping for the VP slot. That would keep him in the public eye for a 2020 or 2024 presidential run.
Trump beats Hillary, but he’s not going to beat Good Old Uncle Joe, who will be the Democratic nominee if Trump is the Republican. If Cruz is the nominee, Hillary stays in, but, since Cruz gets little or no crossover, independent, or Reagan Democrat votes, he loses.
Notice how Trump wins the open primaries, Cruz wins the closed. He’s another Goldwater, a very good man who will go down to ignominious defeat. I suppose if Trump could just turn off his insults, bs, and general 4th grade manner, and learn something about the issues, he might be able to beat Joe, but I don’t see that happening.
When the campaign opened, with the quality of people we had up there at the beginning, I didn’t see how we could lose. Now I can’t see how we can win.
Richard Saunders:
I didn’t list the VP possibility for Rubio because I don’t think that he would stay in the race for that reason, especially if he loses Florida. Losing Florida makes him look very bad. And his staying in the race may or may not help Trump (it’s unclear) and definitely does not help Cruz. Bottom line is that I think dropping out now would enhance his chances for a VP pick, and staying in does not enhance them.
By the way, I really don’t understand why anyone would interpret Trump’s apparent crossover votes in open primaries as evidence these people will vote for him in the general. Many may have other reasons for doing what they’re doing, and may end up voting for the Democrat in the general. What’s more even if they crossover and vote for Trump in the general, Trump probably loses a lot of Republican votes and what matters is the net result.
I agree with you, though, that the GOP’s chances in this election once looked fabulous and now they look rather grim. That could change, of course.
Neo, you’re great, but this is..incorrect. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, the race is over. He has to stay in past Florida. Most of what has been signaled is that he is out after that. Kasich on the other hand…
Even so, Cruz fans have been insufferable on this point. He has underperformed to date in areas he was supposed to win outright. He has little chance to win the general. It’s been a delusional candidacy both by the candidate and his supporters.
But he’ll be the man now, I guess. He’ll lose to Hillary then we can all return to trying to find the next McCain or Romney I guess.
I repeat words when I’m mad. And when I’m mad.
Cruz supporters have never looked at how Cruz would win a general. Oh he’s the best chance to stop Trump…well, yes, when juvenile anger is governing everyone, I suppose so. And when the field was divided 10 ways forever, yes. Rubio had to suffer through the R2R $50m advertising onslaught. During that time, Cruz was hugging Trump and validating him in the eyes of any voter torn between the two. But this is never mentioned along with any of Cruz’s dumbass ideas about how to win an election outside of Texas.
Get ready for the press to discover gems like this when/if Cruz wins the nomination: http://www.timesofisrael.com/cruz-defends-evangelist-who-said-god-sent-hitler-to-hunt-jews/
Bickle was someone McCain specifically disavowed when he endorsed him in 08. Cruz campaign defended Bickle here. But hey, 50m missing evangelical voters or something.http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2015/11/26/myth-4-million-conservative-voters-stayed-home-2012/
Oh, also Rafael Sr is a fraud: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/dispatches/2015/10/23/rafael-cruz-inflated-credentials/
Who makes other things up: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/10/us/politics/cuban-peers-dispute-ted-cruzs-fathers-story-of-fighting-for-castro.html
And says weird things: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/02/rafael-cruz-ted-cruz-campaign-god-sign
And Cruz, supposedly a devout southern baptist, gave almost no money to his church: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/warrenthrockmorton/2016/01/22/will-ted-cruzs-charitable-giving-hurt-him-with-tithing-evangelicals/ (This was over the time period that he and his wife earned nearly $10m, but he was “saving money for his daughters” or something>
He’s just a regular conservative politician, not some savior. He lied abou this immigration support. And he’s not attractive to the general public. But try telling this to starry-eyed conservatives who just want their own Obama.
holmes:
I understand the argument that Rubio must stay in to win Florida. The trouble is: (1) he’s not going to win Florida (2) the fact that Florida is on Super Tuesday means that he stays in for all the other states that vote that day, and he hurts Cruz’s chances in all those states without winning himself, thus assuring a Trump victory.
Plus, even if Rubio were to win Florida (which I don’t think will happen) he still loses all those other states and gives them to Trump.
The trade-off is not good.
I’m tired of hearing how unattractive Cruz is. I know that he is, and it’s irrelevant. All the attractive candidates are gone. He may be attractive enough, running against Hillary. He does pretty well in polls against her. I agree that the press has hardly begun to attack him. But that is true for every single potential GOP candidate.
No, he has a shot to win Florida and Cruz knows it having called for his people to vote for Rubio there. The polling with registered voters is single digits. Cruz has no chance to win there regardless. Which bodes well.