Independents rising
The number of US citizens who call themselves “Independents” has risen in recent years. Here’s the graph:
You can see that the increase in Independent affiliation has come at the expense of both parties, although slightly more from Democrats during the Obama years. However, Democrats had spiked right before Obama’s election, so the number had been especially inflated.
What does it all mean? Who are Independents, anyway? For example, I am an Independent, but the truth is that I don’t vote Democratic and can’t envision doing it again. Most people lean more one party or another, and probably choose the designation “Independent” more to signify disillusion with the party of their choice and/or both parties than much of anything else:
The decline in identification with both parties in recent years comes as dissatisfaction with government has emerged as one of the most important problems facing the country, according to Americans…
Although independents claim no outright allegiance to either major party, it is well-known that they are not necessarily neutral when it comes to politics. When pressed, most independents will say they lean to one of the two major parties. For example, last year an average of 17% of Americans who initially identified as independents subsequently said they “leaned” Republican, 15% were independents who leaned Democratic, with the remaining 11% not expressing a leaning to either party.
Since partisan leaners often share similar attitudes to those who identify with a party outright, the relative proportions of identifiers plus leaners gives a sense of the relative electoral strength of the two political parties, since voting decisions almost always come down to a choice of the two major-party candidates. In 2014, an average 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were Democratic-leaning independents, while 42% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents.
That the three-point Democratic edge was down from six points in 2013, and among Democrats’ smaller advantages the past 25 years. Democrats usually hold an advantage in this combined measure of party affiliation. In fact, the only year Republicans held a notable edge since Gallup began tracking independents’ political leanings was in 1991, the year Republican President George H.W. Bush’s approval ratings soared after the United States’ victory in the Persian Gulf War…
A year later, Clinton became president, so that margin didn’t mean all that much, did it? Of course, the 1992 election featured a third-party candidate, Ross Perot, who siphoned away some of Bush’s support. Politics is unpredictable; who could have foreseen that in 1991?
no one wants to admit they voted for nixon
leftists are now independents as they dont want to say they voted for obama…
its akin to the left ruining a place, then moving to a place they like, and then ruining that with the same ideas…
“I am an Independent, but the truth is that I don’t vote Democratic and can’t envision doing it again.”
That would perfectly describe me as well. I’ve never registered with any party but I strongly lean Tea Party. I’m a Conservative/libertarian/Constitutionalist. I’ve never voted for a democrat President but would have for Kennedy had I been old enough. I very reluctantly voted for Perot. In 1992 I was still a liberal and ABC’s lying reportage that Bush Sr expressed amazement at grocery scanners convinced me that he was economically, hopelessly out of touch.
Of those who “initially identified as independents”… if 17% “leaned” Republican and 15% leaned Democratic and 11% denied that they leaned at all, what happened to the other 57% who “initially identified as independents”? Typical sloppy reporting, should say; 17% of all voters, initially identified as independents “leaned” Republican, etc., etc. Isn’t English composition taught in journalism school anymore?
“In 2014, an average 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were Democratic-leaning independents, while 42% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents.”
More muddled thinking, 1/10/2014 Gallup reports; “Americans continue to be more likely to identify as conservatives (38%) than as liberals (23%).” So, if 38% identify as conservative vs 23% liberal and among independents conservatives lead as well… how can democrats have the advantage? I must have missed something…
I think I might be a political party of one. I am not against all government, but I am against all government, all the time, when it is over reaching, overweening, intrusive and ties itself and the economy into knots. A top heavy government becomes a huge drag on everything.
I’m of the opinion that most Republicans and Democrats are dinosaurs when it comes to the economy, recycling and rehashing the worn out clichés of 80-150 years ago and relying on an antiquated tool kit. I go out of my way to vote for candidates who, in addition to public sector experience, have had success in real, responsible, decision making jobs in the private sector, rather than those who have spent their entire adult lives at the public trough. I just long for steady, even handed, practical, competence. I am looking for someone who knows that it is the middleclass working people who make America, AMERICA and someone who has a realistic understanding of how the real economic game changers impact jobs in America. Thanks to technology, there is a huge asymmetry in knowledge and power between the regular folks and the Mandarin class. My concern is the accelerated churn in innovation and the accelerated change in the life cycle of businesses and careers. I am not against innovation, mind you, I just see its accelerated pace as very destabilizing that makes it more difficult to maintain a thriving middle class.
I know, I know, this politician may not exist.
“I’m of the opinion that most Republicans and Democrats are dinosaurs when it comes to the economy, recycling and rehashing the worn out clichés of 80-150 years ago and relying on an antiquated tool kit.”
Would one of those economic “worn out cliches” by chance be ‘the law of supply and demand’?
I just long for steady, even handed, practical, competence.”
Please explain how these two statements are not mutually incompatible.
“Most people lean more one party or another, and probably choose the designation “Independent” more to signify disillusion with the party of their choice and/or both parties than much of anything else.”
That’s pretty accurate, but to me it also (hopefully) signifies that I’d be open to voting for a viable third-party candidate whose platform was more in line with my views than the usual crop of weaselly, stagnant, and/or inept candidates. Our two-party system makes such a situation unlikely, at least at the federal level, but hope springs eternal…
Geoffrey Britain, 5:57 pm — “So, if 38% identify as conservative vs 23% liberal and among independents conservatives lead as well . . . how can democrats have the advantage?”
I know people who *fancy* themselves conservative, and, compared to those with whom I think they generally associate, by golly they *are* (by comparison) conservative. In some cases, stereotypically speaking here, there are in fact blue-collar no-nonsense type people who are in fact conservative under many variant definitions of the word.
At the same time, there are those who have always been Democrat, whose parents have always been Democrat, whose grandparents have always been Democrat — dear reader is invited to perpetuate the sequence as far back in time as desired — and whose *local* politician in fact does a good job of bringing home the bacon and making sure to look after his constituents. (For example, “blue-collar no-nonsense type people”, anyone?)
So many of them persist in leaning and voting Democrat, partly out of habit, partly out of tribalism, partly out of stasis; particularly towards the bottom of the ballot. Q.E.D.?
I think a majority of people in the country are fiscally conservative. In other words they would like to see the government spend less and tax less. They live their lives working hard, paying their bills, and being good neighbors. But many of them are socially liberal. They like libertarian ideas of abortion “choice,” gay rights, women’s rights, sexual freedom, etc. Many of them may consider themselves independents, but since the dems always make conservative social issue positions the major issues, they are attracted to the dem candidates. The MSM reinforces this narrative that any conservative candidate wants to repeal Roe v. Wade, take away gay rights/sexual freedom/women’s rights, and act as a censor on porn/internet freedom/drug use/etc. The social issues always, always are the main narrative in an election. Fiscal conservatism is also waved away as being cruel to the down-trodden underclasses.
Let’s face it, talking about budgeting, saving money, cutting back, setting priorities, etc. is real snooze material compared with the inflammatory rhetoric that can be used when debating social issues. Besides, a 100 billion here and a hundred billion there and people cannot envision what it means. All they know is that conservatives have been talking about fiscal sanity for a long time and yet, even with 18 trillion in debt, the ship, USS Government, is still afloat. The day of reckoning seems remote.
That’s the situation in my neighborhood. The majority are fiscally conservative, but being Puget Sound, many are social liberals. This being Puget Sound they are subjected to a constant narrative of social liberalism and few have ever sat down to think about how economies work, why some countries are richer than others, where wealth comes from or how it’s created.
Most count themselves as proud independents but vote for the social liberals.
GB : you’re not missing anything, the classification is just too simple. I believe Pew puts out a list of political identification categories that has around 12 groups. It’s pretty interesting.
A group that includes the working poor could be considered socially conservative but they don’t have a problem with big government. They think govt should do more to help the poor but they also disapprove of welfare cheats.
The number of US citizens who call themselves “Independents” has risen in recent years.
Well, many of the Republicans haven’t offered much in the way of opposition to Democrats as of late, so it makes no sense to wholeheartedly embrace that brand. At least, not until the establishment types and the phonies are purged from their ranks, if that is to happen.
The official Republican apparatus is spineless. That’s why many conservatives who would otherwise be Republicans are independents.
Sorry GB, this does not compute for me.
Would one of those economic “worn out cliches” by chance be ‘the law of supply and demand’?
The answer is, no, of course not. My expectation of private sector elected officials, who have a track record of success, is that they have a greater understanding and appreciation of the market and market forces, and that they know that the genius of capitalism is that it harnesses the individual’s impulse for material comfort and security to incentivize innovation for the benefit of all and the greater good. BTW, I’m not referring to the business people who use the revolving door to pop in and out of the executive branch.
I’m one of those points on that rising Independent curve. I left the GOP 18 months ago. I wondered how many on that curve have done the same thing. Looking at the graph, Ind and GOP were about equal at 33% in ’05. Since then, Inds increased to 43%, and GOP decreased to 26%. Looks like maybe 6 out of 10 of the rise of Inds comes from GOP defections.
Just came over from reading American Thinker where there’s a great article of how the establishment GOP is clueless about what is going on with the conservative base. It cites how both Levin and Palin have publicly stated that their association with the GOP is hanging by a thread. The next few months could be interesting, in a Chinese saying sense.
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/01/palin_levin_walk_2016_nomination.html
interesting point as to government control of energy, forcing the price to skyrocket in terms of generation.
the greenies are going to have a fit when the cost of buying power from the power plants that ended 50 gigawats of generating power by 2016. At some point the cost of having the power come from the power company will be lower than the cost of generating your own power using a small 10,000 watt generator (with efficiency inverters).
right now i just computed the costs, and its potentially cheaper to hook up such a thing and save energy in NY where power is really expensive compared to other areas.
without artificial taxes raising the prices arbitrarily, the cost of power generation from a power plant would be too expensive to buy… note that the smaller you get in terms of generators, the more pollution you get per unit watt.
real independents think independently..
its possible, if you own your own property, to install a large tank, buy gas when its really cheap, and then use it for power over other sources…
its interesting to think that if we didnt vote so poorly and the system was allowed to not be bastardized by arbitrary taxes, fees, etc…. how much would actually get to stay in the earners pockets vs the pet projects of the liberals… like making farting a feminist issue… there is a good use of $$$… (not)
but what of the real independents.. the lumbersexuals?
Take one flannel shirt, one Mike Napoli beard circa October 2013, mix in an iPhone 6 and some workboots, then add an overpolished ax and flavor with homebrewed craft beer and you’ve got the latest lifestyle fashion trend for men: the “Lumbersexual.”
As several have noted, this ought to be a time of resurgence for Republicans, but the statist, entrenched establishment’s antics have been actively driving away voters.
I got involved at the local level, and am now a precinct committeeman. There is an active effort by the GOPe (or at least certain national-level members of it) to purge the ranks of non-supporters and we’re trying to fight back. They are using all of the slimy tactics of the left and have long since gone beyond the pale. This is now a war.
I’m convinced that part of the GOPe’s actions are psyops, meant to dispirit the base and create apathy. That just makes me hate them more. We have an important meeting coming up soon; I’ll give you the juicy details if I’m able.