New polls: Obama’s way ahead in swing states… — 7 Comments
As I believe I have posted here before, you can get pretty much any desired result you want in a poll, if you carefully pick the group of people to be polled, carefully structure your questions, stack the questions up in a particular sequence and, finally, when a lot of questions have been asked, call attention to the questions you want people to notice, and interpret the results to mean what you want, and just don’t mention the rest of the questions and what they might say about whatever person/issue you are polling about.
To illustrate the “you can hear what you want to hear in a poll” theme, note that Dewhurst’s polls were telling him he was trailing by about 5 points. When the finals results were in, Cruz won by 13 points which was about 3 points higher than independent polls.
So. . .
I have no idea who is going to win, but polls like this won’t help me figure it out.
Listen and you shall hear
poor, left, and unrevered
voices that love to smear.
Listen. Listen and hear!
If you look at Rove’s electoral map and adjust the polling for registered/likely voter bias and the heavy over sampling of Democrats and former Obama voters you’ll find that most of the state listed as toss ups end up lean Romney. Most of the states that recently moved to “lean Obama” are toss ups with about half showing a slight edge to Romney within the MOE.
Obama may win this, but at this point he is in deep trouble, polling under 46% with heavy disapproval among independents. This lost supports shows up in the internals even in polls that favor Obama. So at this point the conventional wisdom inside the Democrat party and their allies is that Obama is more likely to lose than win. Remember that we don’t know the make up of the internal polling used by Obama, but they haven’t spent $15 million “polling” swing states to learn they are behind. The likely reason is that the majority of those internal polls are “push polls” designed to CHANGE voter opinion about the two candidates. Based on the results we see in the public polls that effort has either failed or is keeping Obama closer than one would expect.
As for why the publicly available polls would over sample Obama voters. The left is fighting for their political lives. They know Obama is in trouble and are trying to mitigate the fall out damage in the house and Senate. Suppose that the polling reflect Obama polling in the low 40s across the swing states (which with honest polling would include the midwestern rust belt). That would lower Democrat moral and suppress turnout down ticket. You are seeing an effort to convince the left that their votes can make a difference and get them to vote.
It seems that asking someone if he plans to vote is a little like asking a kid if he brushed his teeth.
As I believe I have posted here before, you can get pretty much any desired result you want in a poll, if you carefully pick the group of people to be polled, carefully structure your questions, stack the questions up in a particular sequence and, finally, when a lot of questions have been asked, call attention to the questions you want people to notice, and interpret the results to mean what you want, and just don’t mention the rest of the questions and what they might say about whatever person/issue you are polling about.
To illustrate the “you can hear what you want to hear in a poll” theme, note that Dewhurst’s polls were telling him he was trailing by about 5 points. When the finals results were in, Cruz won by 13 points which was about 3 points higher than independent polls.
So. . .
I have no idea who is going to win, but polls like this won’t help me figure it out.
Consensus building that the mandate is not a tax?
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/312533/isebeliusi-and-election-eric-r-claeys
Listen and you shall hear
poor, left, and unrevered
voices that love to smear.
Listen. Listen and hear!
If you look at Rove’s electoral map and adjust the polling for registered/likely voter bias and the heavy over sampling of Democrats and former Obama voters you’ll find that most of the state listed as toss ups end up lean Romney. Most of the states that recently moved to “lean Obama” are toss ups with about half showing a slight edge to Romney within the MOE.
Obama may win this, but at this point he is in deep trouble, polling under 46% with heavy disapproval among independents. This lost supports shows up in the internals even in polls that favor Obama. So at this point the conventional wisdom inside the Democrat party and their allies is that Obama is more likely to lose than win. Remember that we don’t know the make up of the internal polling used by Obama, but they haven’t spent $15 million “polling” swing states to learn they are behind. The likely reason is that the majority of those internal polls are “push polls” designed to CHANGE voter opinion about the two candidates. Based on the results we see in the public polls that effort has either failed or is keeping Obama closer than one would expect.
As for why the publicly available polls would over sample Obama voters. The left is fighting for their political lives. They know Obama is in trouble and are trying to mitigate the fall out damage in the house and Senate. Suppose that the polling reflect Obama polling in the low 40s across the swing states (which with honest polling would include the midwestern rust belt). That would lower Democrat moral and suppress turnout down ticket. You are seeing an effort to convince the left that their votes can make a difference and get them to vote.
It seems that asking someone if he plans to vote is a little like asking a kid if he brushed his teeth.
I think a big win for Romney. Here’s why.