…this is going to be resolved in the nick of time.
Am I being too optimistic?
Comments
I still think… — 39 Comments
I agree. I think the House Republicans will realize that they will be blamed for any negative fallout. Obama’s got the press, especially when it relates to one-off events, like a default deadline.
In the longer term, the Repubs can illuminate a declining situation, like the national debt, then (possibly) take advantage of it.
I still think…
…this is going to be resolved in the nick of time.
IMHO that’s the outcome that all the players expect, but their control of events may slip near the brink. After all, these people and predecessors like them got us into the crisis in the first place.
FWIW, the markets seem a bit concerned but not a LOT concerned. They were actually climbing during the day, until master mind Reid brought the Democrat Senate plan public.
Obama is the key. He has lost control of the situation and lacks the smoothness of a Bill Clinton. The senate Dems will want to do something.
They were actually climbing during the day
yes… either the plunge protection team…
or people are divesting of dollars and trying to put them into some assets… which is why at the same time gold rose and has now broken the 1600 mark…
the dollar you had when obama was elected is now worth a quarter during the bush era…
Money blogger Zero Hedge is looking, with cash flow graphs, at August 15th as the real drop dead date.
“In sum, Treasury is going to start August with less cash than we thought previously. We still think Treasury could probably pay its obligations through August 15, but it’s become a much closer call. ”
More and more I see Obama the Palestinian. Given all that he wants, he still refuses, because like Islam intends to destroy Israel, so Obama intends to destroy America, or, as he calls it, fundamentally transform her.
My guess is that they will come to some agreement by or soon after August 2nd and that this agreement will be judged inadequate by the bond market and rating agencies.
The 4:38 P.M. EST photo of Obama on Drudge looks as if he is about to lose it. Personally, I love it.
I agree with the analysts who say this is more about November 2012 than August 2nd; that the 2012 election is being held right now.
Boehner is winning the House and Senate so far. Reid is staging a rear-guard action today, hoping to avoid 60 R Senators. Obama is almost a general without an army.
The R candidates are going to cut him to pieces in the next year. They have been quiet through this thing but that won’t last forever.
1000x worse than a Moody’s downgrade would be Obama winning in 2012. I don’t even think liberals believe otherwise now. A disaster is a disaster. History will argue about who caused it, but not that it was a disaster.
Curtis,
Perfect analogy!
Best idea today is Rep. Steve King’s: impeach Obama if a default. Hell, impeach him for lotsa reasons, but this one would fly.
Obama is going to bash those rascally Repubicans again tonight for not giving him what he wants.
I guess this is the new strategy: hold daily press conferences to try to panic the markets and bash Republicans until they finally give Obama what he wants.
This whole thing is typical DC posturing for position. Its manufactured to create pundit chatter and ‘news’ drama. Default would come about only by refusing to pay bond holders. There is plenty of money to pay what is due bond holders in August and there will be plenty to pay what comes due in September. This is most definitely all about November, 2012.
I just saw the comment above re ratings agencies.
Who are these? They were selected as approved raters by the SEC in 1975, and three raters of US debt survive: Moody’s, S+P, Fitch. These are the same small-repeat, small-bunch of folks who rated the securitized CMOs for fees paid them by the issuers. Didn’t get that right, did they?
Moody’s is a publicly-traded company; S+P is a unit of McGraw-Hill, also publicly traded. Fitch is Euro-headquartered, stock trades there. The raters do it for money-they are not stoic oracles.
The ratings head of Moody’s had a brief news interview recently-he is about 38 and does not have a pure American accent..
You think the raters immune to pressure from our Ruling Class? Think again.
I went to the bank today to ask for a loan. They wanted to know why I wanted the money. I told them without it I couldn’t keep up the payments on the loans I already have. They showed me to the door, guffawing all the way.
What am I doing wrong?
The Wan is innumerate.
That’s why his budgets are entirely whacko.
He turned down a viable deal even this day.
From another place, maybe a poster at Michelle Malkin’s?:
Boehner was even willing to put forward a tax reform plan as a compromise. Obama’s rejection of $800 billion revealed his agenda. Boehner walked out when the President requested an additional 400 Billion.
I thought I had read that Reid’s plan was 800 billion (my gosh, what a lot of $$) and that Obama was ok with that.
Of course, none of this makes sense to me, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
It’ll get done at the last minute (literally). It’ll take that long for both sides to figure out how to make it a “victory” for their side.
This essence of diplomacy is, alas, all this is about right now. I stand second to no one in wanting a *much* smaller government, but time is far too short now to get this done for real. The Repubs squandered too much time since last November and the president … is too busy pouting like a prof denied tenure to do much of anything.
The whole episode is yet another argument for shrinking government by 50%
Will the debt ceiling crisis be resolved? Undoubtedly. All the parties involved want to be reelected; it’s in their interest to ultimately act. But whatever resolution they come up with will solve nothing. The can is just being kicked further down the road.
Youngest Son (14 years old) watched a clip of Boehner’s proposal and asked “How will we ever pay off $1.2 trillion in debt?”
I said it won’t be paid off. Ever.
His next question was (and I am quoting him directly), “Why are they doing this to my generation?”
I have no answer for that.
“Why are they doing this to my generation?” Because they can’t vote yet.
O keeps derailing talks but considering his bluffs are bluffs; even if nothing is passed the social security and debt payment checks will keep going out. So; it sorta would make sense for him to allow a deal to through. Then again, like with the weather in our recent ‘record breaking heatwave’ having the press in your pocket means you make a lot of people think things are happening even they are not. The past government shutdowns were no big deal but the press made them sound like one.
“Why are they doing this to my generation?”
Because Democrats don’t have children. New Democrats result from mitosis of old ones.
Trump, the author of “The Art of the Deal” and who may know a thing or two about negotiations, states it will be Obama who the public remembers if there is a default. Given that Boehner is not Gingrich and Obama is not Clinton, this sounds pretty plausible.
On another note: The reason they are doing it to another generation is that an addict’s fix is more important than anything else. And Obama wants to keep giving out that government crack especially to children. That is what Obama offers because that is where the (his) future lies: He’s taking from the old to give to the young. It’s part and parcel of Obamacare.
I had another thought after posting. The bond ratings. They’re going down unless spending is cut.
So; by running out the clock on purpose O is trying to pin the bond rating hit on the republicans not raising the debt limit… even though it is really happening due to his out of control spending…
Don Carlos Says:
“You think the raters immune to pressure from our Ruling Class? Think again.”
So far the problem seems to be the press not reporting half of what the ratings agencies are saying (vs. the agencies being a problem).
They’re saying they want the ceiling raised along with real spending cuts. Dem partisans in the media the report they say they will lower our rating if the ceiling is not raised….
Perhaps the best strategic move would be for the Republicans to make a very public appeal for the President to present to the Nation, in another address, specifically what he wants, then agree to vote for it just as he said after he announces it-saying it is against their better judgement but they are doing it anyway and the results are the President’s…..see you in 2012
ELC says, “What am I doing wrong?”
If you want more easy credit you need to run your debt up into the 100,000,000,000 or 1,000,000,000,000 range and suddenly .02% interest credit will come your way. IOW, become too big to fail.
Curtis is correct.
There will be no deal because Obama doesn’t want a deal.
Crisis after crisis until America falls is Obama’s goal.
.
You simply can’t negotiate with a sociopath so lacking in empathy that he has no problem throwing the whole country under the bus if he thinks it can be spun in the media to benefit him personally.
SteveH,
if the wheels are coming off the bus, then all the bodies underneath will lubricate the way…
Powerline Blogs’ $100,000 contest winner coming soon. Check out this video
After listening to the speeches last night do you still think it’ll be resolved in time?
Baklava: as I wrote in today’s post, I didn’t listen to them. And I suppose it depends what the meaning of “in time” is. But yes, I do. Although I’m not especially known for accurate prognostication.
[i dont necessarily agree with what i post, i go for interest and getting people to think outside what they tell you to think]
🙂
No? 🙂 But I wanted to hear what you think (after the speeches).
In time? It was supposed to be by Sunday night for the Asian markets. HA !
I think Obama wants a default. It would be another crisis that he won’t let go to waste.
Of course, refusal to raise the debt ceiling does not automatically mean default. There will still be enough tax revenue coming in to pay the interest. In that case, it would force other cuts in government spending.
Similarly, an individual or family who maxes out their credit cards doesn’t automatically have to declare bankruptcy. They can prioritize their spending, cutting things like restaurant meals, vacations, and cable TV in order to meet their obligations like mortgage payments and utility bills.
But I’m not so sure Obama would take that course. Remember the GM and Chrysler bondholders?
Further to my comments yesterday about the ratings agencies, see this (vindication) by Jenkins in today’s WSJ:
I agree. I think the House Republicans will realize that they will be blamed for any negative fallout. Obama’s got the press, especially when it relates to one-off events, like a default deadline.
In the longer term, the Repubs can illuminate a declining situation, like the national debt, then (possibly) take advantage of it.
I still think…
…this is going to be resolved in the nick of time.
IMHO that’s the outcome that all the players expect, but their control of events may slip near the brink. After all, these people and predecessors like them got us into the crisis in the first place.
FWIW, the markets seem a bit concerned but not a LOT concerned. They were actually climbing during the day, until master mind Reid brought the Democrat Senate plan public.
Obama is the key. He has lost control of the situation and lacks the smoothness of a Bill Clinton. The senate Dems will want to do something.
They were actually climbing during the day
yes… either the plunge protection team…
or people are divesting of dollars and trying to put them into some assets… which is why at the same time gold rose and has now broken the 1600 mark…
the dollar you had when obama was elected is now worth a quarter during the bush era…
Money blogger Zero Hedge is looking, with cash flow graphs, at August 15th as the real drop dead date.
“In sum, Treasury is going to start August with less cash than we thought previously. We still think Treasury could probably pay its obligations through August 15, but it’s become a much closer call. ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/projected-treasury-august-daily-cash-sweep-balance
More and more I see Obama the Palestinian. Given all that he wants, he still refuses, because like Islam intends to destroy Israel, so Obama intends to destroy America, or, as he calls it, fundamentally transform her.
My guess is that they will come to some agreement by or soon after August 2nd and that this agreement will be judged inadequate by the bond market and rating agencies.
The 4:38 P.M. EST photo of Obama on Drudge looks as if he is about to lose it. Personally, I love it.
I agree with the analysts who say this is more about November 2012 than August 2nd; that the 2012 election is being held right now.
Boehner is winning the House and Senate so far. Reid is staging a rear-guard action today, hoping to avoid 60 R Senators. Obama is almost a general without an army.
The R candidates are going to cut him to pieces in the next year. They have been quiet through this thing but that won’t last forever.
1000x worse than a Moody’s downgrade would be Obama winning in 2012. I don’t even think liberals believe otherwise now. A disaster is a disaster. History will argue about who caused it, but not that it was a disaster.
Curtis,
Perfect analogy!
Best idea today is Rep. Steve King’s: impeach Obama if a default. Hell, impeach him for lotsa reasons, but this one would fly.
Obama is going to bash those rascally Repubicans again tonight for not giving him what he wants.
http://twitter.com/#!/PressSec/statuses/95590617853345793
I guess this is the new strategy: hold daily press conferences to try to panic the markets and bash Republicans until they finally give Obama what he wants.
This whole thing is typical DC posturing for position. Its manufactured to create pundit chatter and ‘news’ drama. Default would come about only by refusing to pay bond holders. There is plenty of money to pay what is due bond holders in August and there will be plenty to pay what comes due in September. This is most definitely all about November, 2012.
I just saw the comment above re ratings agencies.
Who are these? They were selected as approved raters by the SEC in 1975, and three raters of US debt survive: Moody’s, S+P, Fitch. These are the same small-repeat, small-bunch of folks who rated the securitized CMOs for fees paid them by the issuers. Didn’t get that right, did they?
Moody’s is a publicly-traded company; S+P is a unit of McGraw-Hill, also publicly traded. Fitch is Euro-headquartered, stock trades there. The raters do it for money-they are not stoic oracles.
The ratings head of Moody’s had a brief news interview recently-he is about 38 and does not have a pure American accent..
You think the raters immune to pressure from our Ruling Class? Think again.
I went to the bank today to ask for a loan. They wanted to know why I wanted the money. I told them without it I couldn’t keep up the payments on the loans I already have. They showed me to the door, guffawing all the way.
What am I doing wrong?
The Wan is innumerate.
That’s why his budgets are entirely whacko.
He turned down a viable deal even this day.
From another place, maybe a poster at Michelle Malkin’s?:
Boehner was even willing to put forward a tax reform plan as a compromise. Obama’s rejection of $800 billion revealed his agenda. Boehner walked out when the President requested an additional 400 Billion.
I thought I had read that Reid’s plan was 800 billion (my gosh, what a lot of $$) and that Obama was ok with that.
Of course, none of this makes sense to me, but that doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate.
It’ll get done at the last minute (literally). It’ll take that long for both sides to figure out how to make it a “victory” for their side.
This essence of diplomacy is, alas, all this is about right now. I stand second to no one in wanting a *much* smaller government, but time is far too short now to get this done for real. The Repubs squandered too much time since last November and the president … is too busy pouting like a prof denied tenure to do much of anything.
The whole episode is yet another argument for shrinking government by 50%
Will the debt ceiling crisis be resolved? Undoubtedly. All the parties involved want to be reelected; it’s in their interest to ultimately act. But whatever resolution they come up with will solve nothing. The can is just being kicked further down the road.
Youngest Son (14 years old) watched a clip of Boehner’s proposal and asked “How will we ever pay off $1.2 trillion in debt?”
I said it won’t be paid off. Ever.
His next question was (and I am quoting him directly), “Why are they doing this to my generation?”
I have no answer for that.
“Why are they doing this to my generation?” Because they can’t vote yet.
O keeps derailing talks but considering his bluffs are bluffs; even if nothing is passed the social security and debt payment checks will keep going out. So; it sorta would make sense for him to allow a deal to through. Then again, like with the weather in our recent ‘record breaking heatwave’ having the press in your pocket means you make a lot of people think things are happening even they are not. The past government shutdowns were no big deal but the press made them sound like one.
“Why are they doing this to my generation?”
Because Democrats don’t have children. New Democrats result from mitosis of old ones.
Trump, the author of “The Art of the Deal” and who may know a thing or two about negotiations, states it will be Obama who the public remembers if there is a default. Given that Boehner is not Gingrich and Obama is not Clinton, this sounds pretty plausible.
http://tinyurl.com/42aek25
On another note: The reason they are doing it to another generation is that an addict’s fix is more important than anything else. And Obama wants to keep giving out that government crack especially to children. That is what Obama offers because that is where the (his) future lies: He’s taking from the old to give to the young. It’s part and parcel of Obamacare.
I had another thought after posting. The bond ratings. They’re going down unless spending is cut.
So; by running out the clock on purpose O is trying to pin the bond rating hit on the republicans not raising the debt limit… even though it is really happening due to his out of control spending…
Don Carlos Says:
“You think the raters immune to pressure from our Ruling Class? Think again.”
So far the problem seems to be the press not reporting half of what the ratings agencies are saying (vs. the agencies being a problem).
They’re saying they want the ceiling raised along with real spending cuts. Dem partisans in the media the report they say they will lower our rating if the ceiling is not raised….
Perhaps the best strategic move would be for the Republicans to make a very public appeal for the President to present to the Nation, in another address, specifically what he wants, then agree to vote for it just as he said after he announces it-saying it is against their better judgement but they are doing it anyway and the results are the President’s…..see you in 2012
ELC says, “What am I doing wrong?”
If you want more easy credit you need to run your debt up into the 100,000,000,000 or 1,000,000,000,000 range and suddenly .02% interest credit will come your way. IOW, become too big to fail.
Curtis is correct.
There will be no deal because Obama doesn’t want a deal.
Crisis after crisis until America falls is Obama’s goal.
.
You simply can’t negotiate with a sociopath so lacking in empathy that he has no problem throwing the whole country under the bus if he thinks it can be spun in the media to benefit him personally.
SteveH,
if the wheels are coming off the bus, then all the bodies underneath will lubricate the way…
Powerline Blogs’ $100,000 contest winner coming soon. Check out this video
http://sistertoldjah.com/archives/2011/07/26/the-debt-star/
Neo,
After listening to the speeches last night do you still think it’ll be resolved in time?
Baklava: as I wrote in today’s post, I didn’t listen to them. And I suppose it depends what the meaning of “in time” is. But yes, I do. Although I’m not especially known for accurate prognostication.
interesting video as to the general condition
The Agenda – Grinding America Down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQf_QfitmKE
[i dont necessarily agree with what i post, i go for interest and getting people to think outside what they tell you to think]
🙂
No? 🙂 But I wanted to hear what you think (after the speeches).
In time? It was supposed to be by Sunday night for the Asian markets. HA !
I think Obama wants a default. It would be another crisis that he won’t let go to waste.
Of course, refusal to raise the debt ceiling does not automatically mean default. There will still be enough tax revenue coming in to pay the interest. In that case, it would force other cuts in government spending.
Similarly, an individual or family who maxes out their credit cards doesn’t automatically have to declare bankruptcy. They can prioritize their spending, cutting things like restaurant meals, vacations, and cable TV in order to meet their obligations like mortgage payments and utility bills.
But I’m not so sure Obama would take that course. Remember the GM and Chrysler bondholders?
Further to my comments yesterday about the ratings agencies, see this (vindication) by Jenkins in today’s WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903591104576469923832521268.html?mod=djemEditorialPage_h