Does anyone knows what’s really going on with Libya?
Because as far as I can see, the situation is in complete confusion.
It seems that the US has finally gotten on board with action against Gaddafi. But why now? And is it a case of too little, too late?
Although we keep hearing about the Libyan rebels, I have yet to see a good description of who they are and what they are striving for, except the elimination of the current regime. I assume they’re better than Qaddafi (which would not too difficult), but such assumptions can be dangerous. I sincerely hope the State Department has more information on that than I do, but sometimes I wonder.
Here’s an article that purports to tell how the White House arrived at its new stance, and the gist of it is that it’s clear as mud. Here’s a quote:
“In the case of Libya, they just threw out their playbook,” said Steve Clemons, the foreign policy chief at the New America Foundation. “The fact that Obama pivoted on a dime shows that the White House is flying without a strategy and that we have a reactive presidency right now and not a strategic one.”
But what was Obama’s playbook in the first place? I’m not so sure this represents a change in the playbook as I’ve come to understand it, which is as follows:
(1) When in doubt (and one is always in doubt), do nothing except spout some words about what “must” happen. Otherwise, wait.
(2) Go with world opinion; do not lead.
(3) Support our enemies and pull the rug out from under our friends.
If one looks at it this way, the only part of his previous playbook that Obama is violating here is #3, and probably only because he’s following #2. World opinion appears to be against Qaddafi and for intervention on behalf of the rebels. Once the UN Security Council showed cooperation and willingness to pass a no-fly-zone resolution, that was the signal that the US could act in a more decisive manner, too.
IMO our current president believes that if he says something reality will bend to his words and therefore that is all he has to do: talk. Pick any subject: health care, green jobs, high speed rail, prosperity, global warming, peace in the Middle east, the NCAA tournament, etc. All Obama has to do is spout off and the seas will part, lions will lay down with lambs, and 3,000,000 jobs will be created and/or saved.
He is infested with the messiah complex.
I forgot to add…. No, we don’t know what is going on in Libya. IMO if we intervene we are going to end up holding the caca covered end of the stick.
However, I don’t believe we (or the UK or France) will end up intervening in a serious manner. Positioning resources is one thing, going in on the ground is another. Neither Obama or the American public are willing to do so. A no-fly zone will not stop Qaddafi unless a no-fly zone includes destroying equipment, personnel, and other resources on the ground from the air or with cruise missiles launched by the navy (our navy).
Qaddafi has announced a cease fire and put forth the idea that he is willing to negotiate with the rebels. He’s just waiting until attention wanes and he can go back to reclaiming the eastern portions of Libya. He’s a true weirdo but he’s a canny weirdo.
I agree with Parker about Qaddafi’s thinking here: He’s playing along. Sarkozy, Cameron, and the UNSC got themselves worked up to the point of fighting against something, and the instant they decided to do it, Qaddafi removed the target. Now they won’t act against him until he starts bombing his own people again, but he won’t do that until they’ve lost the will to act. As things stand, I doubt they’ll enforce a no-fly zone, because that means destroying his air defenses and then destroying any aircraft that take off, and that’s not politically feasible as long as Qaddafi’s playing along. He’s off the hook. They’ve bought the rebels some time, but not enough to do any good.
If I had any confidence in Qaddafi playing along indefinitely, so the rebels could form a government and get on with their lives, I’d call this a cheap triumph and be delighted with it. But I don’t think he’ll play along any longer than he figures he absolutely has to.
As for Obama, I guess I don’t care. He’s a joke. But in this case, this is the same thing I’d’ve done in his shoes: It’s Europe’s back yard. They need to learn to stand up on their own. If they can’t count on us to step in all the time, they’ll have to grow up a bit and take some responsibility. They’ll respect us more for it. It’s time we stopped being the beta boyfriend who’s always trying to make himself useful. Europe IS capable of taking responsibility, if they must.
Mind you, Obama’s doing the right (IMHO) thing for the wrong reasons, but there’s nothing I can do about it anyhow so I’ll take what I can get.
It’s not just his own playbook that Obama’s violating. Without a declaration of war (against a country that has not attacked us), Obama is assuming the role of Emperor. This usurpation of power should frighten us all.
Also, we cannot afford another quagmire!
Well, that was quick: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/18/us-libya-misrata-bombard-idUSTRE72H74K20110318. We’ll see if the Euros are serious or not.
Old Rebel,
Its been a long time since we paid attention to article 1, section 8, clause 11. The executive branch has given lip service by asking congress for what amounts to “grant letters of marque and reprisal” but for the most part congress has shirked its duty time and time again and allowed the executive free rein. In this, Obama is not unique.
the guys in Libya want the same as those in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Morocco, Syria, Jordania, the UAE: the establishment of an Islamic superstate under a Taliban style religious ruling council.
Maybe that’s not what the man in the street wants, but that’s what those who’re controlling things want, and that’s all that counts.
The man in the street is a useful idiot to be shot, hanged, beheaded, stoned, or locked up in a snake pit when he gets uppity against his new leaders.
Parker,
Qaddafi will also follow the Saddam playbook of dealing with and bribing weaker members of the coalition and then pretending to go along with demands so that the diplomacy first factions threaten governments.
OT, Merkel’s Christian Democrats are in real trouble in 2 state elections coming up this weekend and next. The Greens have been milking Japan’s reactor problem for all it is worth and pushing for an accellerated shutting of all nuclear reactors. Should they get in state coalitions, the Federal Council will be able to block any rational foreign policy that offends their pacifist sensibilities. IOW, Germany will be voting Present on foreign affairs for the foreseeable future and possibly exerting pressure (especially economic) on other EU countries. The Greens even have the energy companies here cowering. It is disgusting. As if the middle of Germany is threatened by a tsunami. At least America has a promising new class of politicians like Ryan and Rubio. Germany has zilch outside of its 68ers and their brainwashed followers. There is no Tea Party in sight.
Retardo,
I agree that it’s good to make the Euros put their money where their mouth is. My problem is that Obama opens his mouth initially and then retreats. He looks like a wimp. He should have made some statement about greater freedom for the Libyans as the only way to a better economic situation. This would have differentiated between seekers of real reform and the Islamists. Obama doesn’t know how to apply pressure behind the scenes–or maybe he simply can’t resist looking tough on camera. Maybe he won that transparency award because everyone now sees through him.
Why is it to our, or the worlds advantage to replace K-daffy with Iran/muslim brotherhood?
Don’t worry. This is media whack a mole based on concocted perceptions and we’ll be onto something else that really offends the feelings of idiots next week.
What ck said.
expat says, “Qaddafi will also follow the Saddam playbook…”
Very likely. As I said above, Qaddafi is a canny weirdo.
and “… opens his mouth initially and then retreats.”
He’s perpetually surprised when his mere words turn out to be less than a magical, transformative solution. In Obamistan talk = walk.
ck,
Time and time again we fail to arm/encourage both sides. The Iraq-Iran war is a classic example. I favor letting allah sort ’em out. But then people say I’m cynical so what do I know?
Regardless of the wisdom of getting involved or not getting involved, Obama has limited his options by running his mouth. Weeks ago, he said Gaddafi must go. Now he says that Gaddafi must cease fire. Neither of those things happened. What’s next, a strongly worded letter?
Now the bigger issue is Obama making the U.S. look like a paper tiger. The president and the secretary of state have put themselves on the side of the rebels who are in the process of losing. At this point we may need to bomb the crap out of Gaddafi’s tanks and troops to look credible. Never let your mouth write a check your body can’t cash.
But, but, but, weren’t we promised that 0 would be playing three-dimensional chess? /sarc/ Um, this guy would be out of his depth in “Chutes and Ladders”, that’s been demonstrated beyond question since January 2009. Regardless, this isn’t to say that the Libyan situation isn’t very confusing. It is. That’s why our tax dollars fund a State Department, a National Security Council and an intelligence community: to inform the president, sort out the players on the ground, and give the prez some policy options. Unfortunately, Hillary seems as confused as her boss, and if the NSC is a player at all, it’s keeping really quiet about it. If Obama is getting any good advice, it’s pretty obvious he isn’t taking it.
Your not actually supposed to question and think about what they said, or if its right, or if it might not be true. its a que to a feeling not an argument from rationality.
Libya is not that hard to figure out. Obadiah waited because the rebels are the only rebels they can be.
look, rebels need weapons and not pea shooters but real weapons. how to get them? well which players are selling and why would they sell to them?
work from there as a good starting point.
if the rebels were US backed they would have what weapons and whose interest from the get go? The weapons floating around there and the only one flush enough to have supplied so many for so long is whom?
why ignore quadaffi? the problem resolves itself favorably for O either way, but not if he picks the wrong one. [as one can see now that Q did not end up gone when O said go]
its waiting to see who the winner will be before you make a bet. but the problem is the winner is taking too long to be the winner. and so everyone has to drop into their roles, and take stage
(lesson to despots, get your laundry clean fast, the world dont like messy long drawn out things)
the defenses of the western nations are being made very thin and thinner looks to be coming up.
As a historian, I’ve never understood the human penchant to refuse to believe someone’s clear statement of intent. Hitler did not dissemble. Millions died when he told the truth, was not believed, and then did what he said he would do.
Obama stated in no uncertain terms that he believes American leadership is, to say the least, inappropriate. He is acting in perfect accordance with that belief. Our allies are discovering it first hand. They are being forced for the first time in more than half a century how to act like Great Powers again. That may have a bad outcome in the long run.
Neo,
I sent emails to Bret Baier at FNC and to Charles Krauthammer as a start, asking why no one defines who these “resistance fighters” in Libya are. I picked those two because Krauthammer has been beating the drum to support them, and Bret does a daily report.
As I pointed out, FNC has correspondents embedded with these fighters, but no one ever answers some basic questions. Who are they? Who provided them with AK-47, RPGs and Quad anti-aircraft guns (archaic though they are)? Who is organizing and leading? What can we expect if they do overthrow Gaddafi?
Pretty basic questions before we get too deeply involved. No answers.
LAG
been saying the same thing for years about each group and what their leaders say and write.
but nope.. they cant be serious, even though they said it, and a whole bunch say similar things across the board, and are taken serious for flimsy justification to some really nice ends (while most ignore the method to get to such end).
Sanger was not lying when she was giving lectures and wrote her autobiography, and published earnst rudin in her birth control review (moses harmons lucifer bringer of light was renamed american eugenicist).
but somehow its been cleansed…
no.. we thought it was clean before we found out its so dirty, but since we have normalized it we are very loath to accept its history and purpose.
same with the other groups that now are even violating supreme court judgments on affirmative action. odd they are targeting the same groups and things as did that person you mentions team. and using the same methods, and the good people are doing the same bad things.
but cant believe they are the same if the way the end is not an exact copy. heck, even if it is, they give a different reason and refuse to believe the history.
LAG,
The towel wrapped too tight around the head crowd, hell bent to establish the new caliphate and by force create one world under sharia, have long been telling us what they intend to do but we refuse to believe they mean what they say. Our refusal to recognize their message and see their attacks over the last 3+ decades as a war of civilizations is their greatest strength.
It is frustrating to watch the West refuse to acknowledge the threat. IMO we are in a war of civilizations. On one hand there are western values and on the other hand there is sharia. In general, the lazy and complacent ones who are the majority in the west refuse to throw off the PC thorazine shackles of the welfare state and hear the reality of Adhan called out by the muezzin 5 times a day, 365.
waltj,
BHO is not so good at 3-D chess or picking NCAA winners. Tic-tac is beyond him. 😉
artfldgr says, “… we thought it was clean before we found out it was so dirty… ”
Ah, yes it is dirty and if we’re not willing to get dirty we should stay at home. Ergo, we should stay at home.
I’m against any war with Obama as Commander-in-Chief for the simple reason that I know that he will act counter to America’s interest.
This is in Europe’s back yard, and it is long past time for them to step up and handle their own problems. Oh, wait, they’ve decimated their militaries in order to pay for their welfare states.
I’m tired of nation-building and “helping” Third World shitholes. The only reason I would go to war in a Muslim country is for the purpose of glassification.
LAG said:
“….for the first time in more than half a century how to act like Great Powers again. That may have a bad outcome in the long run.”
Or maybe not. Way past time for the Euros to do more than run their mouths. I welcome a wee bit of heavy lifting by France. The Brits are a different story; see the Falklands and Iraq. I saw some chatter about the Danes (!) contributing a little muscle.
I am puzzled by those who wish to know more about the Libyan rebels before backing them against Qaddhafi. What is it you wish to know, and how do you expect to learn it from what by all measures is a hastilly assembled throng? You wish press conferences? Spokesmen? A Representative Assembly of Rebels, voting?
As to Baraq, I now think he’s better characterized as a bully than knave or fool. Bullies are bastards when backed by their mob, but quick to dither and cave when faced with matters that require only the bully to respond against an initiating force (bullies only initiate after picking a safe mark; that is the essence of bullying).
rickl, you’ve pegged Europe perfectly. My time with NATO (thank you, God, for bringing that to a close) let’s me claim with absolute confidence that the Europeans are incapable of doing this by themselves.
The perverse aspect of this is that if we leave Europe in the lead and it comes to a bombing campaign, more people will die. The Euros also don’t do precision–costs too much.
I’ve said all along that with his roots as a community organizer, his sole purpose for running for president was to get us on the path to single payer (government run) healthcare. That’s it. He’s clueless about foreign policy and to the extent he expected to have to deal with it at all, it would be to pull us out of Iraq, Afghanistan, and close Gitmo. Then as good little socialists with our new government healthcare, we’d watch admiringly as he worked his magic and, to quote him, his greatness would cause, “the rise of the oceans begin to slow and the planet begin to heal”.
Everybody in the world understands that Iran is the real threat to the middle east and the world. Iran, not Libya, has vowed multiple times to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. Iran, not Libya, is developing nuclear weapons to achieve that. Iran slaughtered its own protestors in the streets, Obama did nothing. Libya slaughtered its people, Obama gets a bug up his butt and feels the need to act?
What a disaster this guy is. But at least we’ve got healthcare as the planet heals!
Yeah Tom; it is not so confusing. I want to know who we are backing before we throw our boys and girls into the fray. I want to know if we are trading bad for worse. We have done that before, you know? Every SOB in the third world who has a weapon claims to be a freedom fighter and lover of democracy. Until they get control. Well, before we back ’em, we need to vet ’em. We should have learned in the election of 2008, not to simply take people at their word, when we don’t know anything about them.
I know that FNC, to mention just one organization, has correspondents embedded with these people in Libya. I would hope to hell that our government is at least that sophisticated; and knows something about who these folks are. If we cannot get answers to some simple questions about these people, who look a lot like hardened mujaheddin, and who show up with weapons (RPGs, AK 47s) that are favored by every Jihadi and terrorist group of the Muslim world, like where they came from and what their real goals are; then I say keep our hands off.
Should not be hard to understand.
rickl says,
“The only reason I would go to war in a Muslim country is for the purpose of glassification.”
ROTFLOL!
Yes, I agree. I’m a before its too late kind of guy. Mecca, Medina, and Qom are not on my list of places I wish to see before I die. A background of 100 R/hr for a decade or so is fine by me. Shall we compromise on 20 megatons each? 😉
Scott,
Iran is a serious threat, but IMO Pakistan is a bigger threat.
Oldflyer,
It does smell a bit like Mogadishu circa 1993 does it not?
Amazing, dear leader comes close to making a decision, or at least having one made for him, and it so traumatizes the poor fellow that he has to go on vacation. Apparently no one told him that during a storm a captain’s place is on the bridge.
Anyway the UN response will be inadequate and the whole thing will probably boil down an inconclusive low intensity war. Gaddafi will probably seek revenge by staging terror attacks in Europe which local governments will conveniently pretend not to know he instigated.
Scott wrote: ‘Everybody in the world understands that Iran is the real threat to the middle east and the world.”
should read:
Everybody in the world with one exception understands that Iran is the real threat to the middle east and the world. FIFY
It’s as though the whole administration adopted the Marx Brother’s movie Duck Soup as a role model.
LAG,
Much of Europe’s problems stem from its multiparty parliamentary systems that can give relatively small parties too much influence on local governments and therefore too much influence on big issues that face Europe as a whole. The EU is based on consensus and compromise, which may work if you are dealing with lightbulbs and trade issues. But when you get to big issues that require a strong leader, the least common denominator is what Europe offers. Belgium has had an acting government for almost a year, and no one seems to care; yet the Euros fret and finger wag about the difficulties of forming a government in Iraq. The mindset of Euros is to delegate responsibilty to a higher level of mendacious bureaucrats, with the UN being the high point. In short, Nero may have fiddled while Rome burned, Europe would form a commission to set standards for fiddle strings.
Oldflyer, we’re on the side of the ‘peeepul.’
expat, that’s partly it. Mostly I think it’s 60 years of shifting GDP to social program while living under an American defense umbrella and a deep, deep reluctance to move any money the other way. And outside of the Brits and French there is no willingness to invest blood.
One other point on Obama’s words–what are you paying for gas? Weren’t you told this was the way it needed to be?
Equality dooms the mass to mediocrity at best as the best answers are diluted by the worst ones.
OLDFLYER:
How you gonna get the data you require in order to make a timely decision? Not acting becuz you don’t have the data is still making a decision.
Since you are an Old Flyer, liken it to piloting.
Tom, you are not paying attention to what I am saying. Someone knows who these people are. I will say one more time, FNC has correspondents traveling with them, and reporting daily. I assume that the other networks do as well. I hope that the government is at least as well informed.
The problem for me is that no one is telling us who they are. I suspect there is a reason.
I hate to stand up for Obama, but he may be between a rock and a hard place, in that there is no good choice. I would hope–but I am not optimistic– that some of the delay and dithering has been to afford time to catch up with events and start to shape them. In other words to push some real democratic leadership into commanding positions among these insurgents.
But, if we are now going to charge ahead; I want to know who we are charging ahead to support.
Parker: The point I was trying to make, which may have gotten lost in my sarcasm, is that it doesn’t make sense for us to be involved in Libya after we passed on getting involved in Iran.
Iran IS a serious threat to the various Sunni monarchies in the region. Iran is currently sabre rattling with the Saudis over Bahrain. Iran has long funded Hezbollah which has now effectively turned Lebanon into an Iranian satellite state. Iran is developing nukes. Ahmadinejad has said repeateedly he wants to destroy Israel. Why do we not believe him? And in light of all that, when Iran committed atrocities against its people similar to those Libya has done, Obama told Iran to solve its own problems. But Libya demands our involvement even though it’s not (yet) a threat to its neighbors? Good luck making sense of it.
I just don’t get it.
Our Euro allies didn’t believe what Obama said either:
“Clinton’s unwillingness to commit the United States to a specific position led many in the room to wonder exactly where the administration stood on the situation in Libya.
“Frankly we are just completely puzzled,” the diplomat said. “We are wondering if this is a priority for the United States.””
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/16/european_governments_completely_puzzled_about_us_position_on_libya
The Wan is trying to pass the baton to the Euros.
All I expect to see is pin pricks and symbolism against the Duck of Death.
As of this moment, Daffy is still pressing full speed ahead and figures to have Benghazi in his hands in pretty short order.
The Revolution is bugging out for Egypt — pretty much.
It appears the French aircraft are going at this with enthusiasm. Gaddafi’s supply lines are really stretched and out in the open. The French and Brits can do lots of damage if they choose. Sarkosy is coming across are a serious player. He sees a chance to outshine our metrosexual president.
1. Like Neo and Oldflyer, I have been asking who the Libyan rebels are.
2. I doubt that humanitarianism is why the French are intervening.
In times of turmoil, the revolutionaries tend to be a very motley crowd with each faction pursuing its own goals. This was the case with French revolution, just as with Russian one. Who will come with upper hand in the end game is impossible to predict.
there is only one thing we dont talk about… one influence that never comes up.. one point of problem that if you do point the oddity, then you violated something.
missiles gone… over 100
hope he doesnt like the taste of napalm in the morning, otherwise one can imagine what could be
Did the UN resolution just replace a Congressional declaration of war or the need for the President to fulfill the requirements of the war powers act? Has anyone heard a hint that the administration plans a nod to Congress in any form?
Some of you may be too young to remember Gaddafi’s “Line of death” during his little dust up with President Reagan. “Cross this line you die. Okay, cross THIS line you die.”
Not in my wildest of dreams would I have guessed the French would be the first to cross his next line.
Scott,
I don’t get it either. BTW, its not that I don’t think the theocracy in Iran is a big problem, I just happen to think Pakistan is an even bigger problem.
Per Parker’s and Scott’s discussion.
I look around with growing unease as it is starting to become clear that there are more leaks in the dike than we have fingers.
mksmash,
It takes a thousand fingers to raise a village and it takes a village to raise a child. 😉