What we know about a possible hostage deal
I consider it all rumor until it happens, if it happens – and one of the many things we don’t know is whether it will actually happen. But here are some of my thoughts on the matter.
Because it has come to the point where any attempt at rescue will cause hostages to be murdered by their guards, the only way Israel can get hostages back alive is a deal. The deal was always going to involve the release of enormous numbers of terrorists. The only way that wouldn’t happen is if Israel had considered the hostages as dead from the start, and had refused to negotiate with Hamas at all. I don’t think Israeli society would have stood for that.
Plus, even though theoretically such a no-negotiation policy would have discouraged the taking of hostages in the future, it wouldn’t have discouraged it enough. Why? Because although one reason for terrorists’ hostage-taking is a pragmatic one – the release of prisoners – there is another big reason, which is to inflict suffering on the entire Jewish people. The terrorists are also sadists, and so that motive might be enough in and of itself.
Therefore I think some sort of lopsided deal has always been inevitable.
The release of a thousand prisoners may or may not end up mattering, depending on what Israel does next. It may be hard to believe, but Hamas has been recruiting new people lately. There seems to be no shortage of Gazans willing to die for the noble cause of wiping Israel off the face of the earth. Whether these particular thousand prisoners are released or not, the Israelis are in this for the long haul, and they have to figure out a way to improve the situation enormously or it will happen again and again no matter what they do. They absolutely cannot go back to the way it was before. And so what is most important – and what always was most important, deal or no – is Israel’s long-term approach going forward.
And what of the role of the upcoming Trump administration in any deal that may be made? Certainly they have exerted some pressure, but I don’t know the extent of it. Trump has motivation for a deal to be made before he takes office so he can claim victory on that score, and Biden has motivation for a deal to be made while he’s still in office so he can claim victory on that score.
I don’t think Netanyahu will sell his country down the river, and I have to trust that the Israelis have more tricks up their sleeves than we know about.
With all that as background, here’s an article on the deal:
Key mediator Qatar said Tuesday that a day earlier it had presented both parties with a “final” draft of the agreement. Israel’s Channel 12 news reported Monday that Jerusalem considered it broadly acceptable, and senior Israeli officials said they were waiting for Hamas’s reaction.
The Associated Press reported Tuesday that Hamas accepted the deal as well, citing two officials involved in the talks. However, CNN later cited an Egyptian official as saying the mediating countries — Qatar, Egypt, and the United States — had not yet received a response from the Palestinian terror group.
Hamas did say the ongoing negotiations had reached their “final stage” and that it had held consultations with other Palestinian factions and informed them of the “progress made.”
See what I mean? Clear as mud.
Details:
The three-phase agreement — based on a framework laid out by US President Joe Biden and endorsed by the UN Security Council — would begin with the gradual release of 33 hostages over a six-week period, including women, children, adults over the age of 50, and severely sick and wounded civilians.
Israel believes most of the 33 are alive but that some are dead.
In exchange, Israel would release many hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners. The BBC put the number at 1,000 prisoners, including approximately 190 terrorists who have been serving sentences of 15 years or more.
On Monday, Israeli diplomatic officials, briefing military and diplomatic reporters, said high-profile “murderer” terrorists would not be released to the West Bank under the deal, and nobody who took part in the October 7, 2023, Hamas onslaught would be freed.
Time will tell.
I hope that Israel does not agree to a massive release of prisoners. Recall that Sinwar was one of the prisoners previously released.
Gringo:
There is no question that any deal would involve a massive release of prisoners. Supposedly, any murderers will go to other countries like Egypt or Turkey – and of course they’ll wend their way back to Gaza or similar places. But my point is that whether they release these prisoners or not, there are plenty to take their place in the ranks of Hamas. Something much more is needed to change things around, whether the prisoners are released or not.
Hey, no big deal.
Israel should release anyone the terrorists ask for, and give them a parting gift.
A pager, maybe, or a cell phone.
AesopFan, and implant a tracker chip in their bodies before release.
Israel is much too civilized.
Hamas will release 33 hostages to Israel and get hundreds of Hamas prisoners freed back to Gaza? A Biden idea, huh? Well, stupid is as stupid does, says Forrest Gump.
Israel should consider the 33 as sacrifices, and immediately commence the execution, perhaps in public, by firing squad, of the many hundreds of Gazans it holds in prison.
Israel was not founded by softies.
Yes, antisemitism is rife in the West, especially Western Europe, New England and the Left Coast. Our finest college and university tenured faculties, socialists all, love Gazans aka Palestinians, none of which I would attend today. That leaves Hillsdale, Belmont Abbey, Grove City as rational sanctuaries. Not enough!
It’s so very nice for me to spend time on X with quick tweets, then come back here to see how Neo agrees with me and says it better. Mostly. Like the issue of Hamas murdering hostages rather than allowing them to be freed.
Releasing lots of terrorists isn’t such a big deal because there are thousands, hundreds of thousands, of Hamas supporting wannabe terrorists in Gaza. And millions of Jew haters throughout the world, including many in the US.
The key issue is how to govern Gaza after the war, so that the killers can’t kill.
One tweet not mentioned is that of a Gazan woman saying Hamas is in every Gaza house. What is Israel gonna do, kill them all? Probably this was in reaction to Pete Hegseth being willing to support Israel hunting down and killing all Hamas terrorists (next Neo post!) in his confirmation hearing.
Israel will find out they need to occupy and control Gaza, because nobody else will do it and give Israel security. Plus, there needs to be space for Jew tolerant Gazans to work with Jews in peace, without being killed or harassed by racists in power. There might even be a small preference cascade, of Gazans who only pay lip service to Jew hate, but it seems more likely that the vast majority hate, and will find reasons to hate, no matter what. Hating is fun! So Israel occupation must stop the fun of public Jew hate.
Like pushing house rebuilding and other economic work to give young men status thru good actions. Also including sport, and playing with and against Jews after a couple of years.
In the meantime, fast execution of terrorist killers in occupied Gaza will likely reduce the number of terrorist killers released in future hostage exchanges.
However prevalent antisemitism is in the West, I’m pretty sure the government of Israel is not run by antisemites.
We all know that letting Hamas live to fight another day means more dead Israelis later. Why is this deal, which entails more dead Israelis later, apparently more acceptable to the Israeli government than not taking the deal? What is it we don’t know? What is on the table that is either worse than Hamas killing more Israelis later, or good enough (for whom?) that it offsets Hamas killing more Israelis later?
This I have never understood. And I have given up expecting that anything we read in the news is going to make sense of it. I can only hope that government of Israel knows something, that isn’t the news, that would make sense of it.
link: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-837718
“Jerusalem Post” report:
JANUARY 15, 2025 19:11
Updated: JANUARY 15, 2025 19:52
Israel, Hamas agree to Gaza deal, Trump says hostages to be ‘released shortly’
“We have a deal for hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
___________________________________________
This has also been reported in other places. Details are scarce; but, so far, it looks as if the rumors were accurate. How many hostages are alive? How slowly will they be released? How long will the ceasefire last? How soon will Hamas regroup and execute anoter pogrom? etc., etc. …
Israel is agreeing to this because the Biden administration was threatening to allow a UN Security Council resolution pass demanding that Israel stop the war and imposing sanctions if Israel did not comply. Presumably Trump (who seems to think the war was just about getting the hostages back, and was also eager to take credit for another big “deal”) was also pressuring Israel to accept the deal. In the face of such pressure, Netanyahu really had no choice but to capitulate.
For details, see Michael Doran and Caroline Glick.
For three or four decades, Israel has deliberately made itself dependent on the US for the tools needed to defend itself. It could have developed the ability to manufacture its own planes, munitions, etc., but the establishment military/intelligence junta that, in conjunction with the self-appointing judiciary and law enforcement mafia, runs the country (regardless of the composition of the elected government) decided not to do that, instead channeling development into software engineering, pharmaceuticals, etc. Israel is now tasting the bitter fruit of its ruling class’s decision to make the country more or less a colony of the United States.
djf:
Trump has never indicated that he thinks the war is just about getting the hostages back. And Rubio gave testimony underlining that, as well.
From what I’ve read, Trump was pretty determined to have the war ended and hostages released before he got into office, and to take credit for it, justifiably or not. I know Rubio and Hegseth are quite supportive of Netanyahu’s war aims, but has Trump personally ever said the war should not end until Hamas is gone and Israel is back in control of Gaza? Maybe I missed it, but not as far as I know. Typically, Trump is on both sides of every issue, and has supporters on both sides of every issue (except maybe opening the border and flying in people from Haiti).
Also, Neo, the reports are that Trump representatives were involved, along with the Biden people, in the negotiations leading to this deal, and were pressuring the Israelis to take it.
My main point is that Netanyahu had no choice but to swallow this deal. He is widely disliked in Israel even on the right (particularly among old-guard, elite Likudniks and by supporters of his far-right coalition partners, who will both be happy to blame him for this), but it is not his fault.