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What we know about a possible hostage deal — 12 Comments

  1. I hope that Israel does not agree to a massive release of prisoners. Recall that Sinwar was one of the prisoners previously released.

  2. Gringo:

    There is no question that any deal would involve a massive release of prisoners. Supposedly, any murderers will go to other countries like Egypt or Turkey – and of course they’ll wend their way back to Gaza or similar places. But my point is that whether they release these prisoners or not, there are plenty to take their place in the ranks of Hamas. Something much more is needed to change things around, whether the prisoners are released or not.

  3. Hey, no big deal.
    Israel should release anyone the terrorists ask for, and give them a parting gift.
    A pager, maybe, or a cell phone.

  4. Israel is much too civilized.
    Hamas will release 33 hostages to Israel and get hundreds of Hamas prisoners freed back to Gaza? A Biden idea, huh? Well, stupid is as stupid does, says Forrest Gump.

    Israel should consider the 33 as sacrifices, and immediately commence the execution, perhaps in public, by firing squad, of the many hundreds of Gazans it holds in prison.

    Israel was not founded by softies.

    Yes, antisemitism is rife in the West, especially Western Europe, New England and the Left Coast. Our finest college and university tenured faculties, socialists all, love Gazans aka Palestinians, none of which I would attend today. That leaves Hillsdale, Belmont Abbey, Grove City as rational sanctuaries. Not enough!

  5. It’s so very nice for me to spend time on X with quick tweets, then come back here to see how Neo agrees with me and says it better. Mostly. Like the issue of Hamas murdering hostages rather than allowing them to be freed.

    Releasing lots of terrorists isn’t such a big deal because there are thousands, hundreds of thousands, of Hamas supporting wannabe terrorists in Gaza. And millions of Jew haters throughout the world, including many in the US.

    The key issue is how to govern Gaza after the war, so that the killers can’t kill.
    One tweet not mentioned is that of a Gazan woman saying Hamas is in every Gaza house. What is Israel gonna do, kill them all? Probably this was in reaction to Pete Hegseth being willing to support Israel hunting down and killing all Hamas terrorists (next Neo post!) in his confirmation hearing.

    Israel will find out they need to occupy and control Gaza, because nobody else will do it and give Israel security. Plus, there needs to be space for Jew tolerant Gazans to work with Jews in peace, without being killed or harassed by racists in power. There might even be a small preference cascade, of Gazans who only pay lip service to Jew hate, but it seems more likely that the vast majority hate, and will find reasons to hate, no matter what. Hating is fun! So Israel occupation must stop the fun of public Jew hate.

    Like pushing house rebuilding and other economic work to give young men status thru good actions. Also including sport, and playing with and against Jews after a couple of years.

    In the meantime, fast execution of terrorist killers in occupied Gaza will likely reduce the number of terrorist killers released in future hostage exchanges.

  6. However prevalent antisemitism is in the West, I’m pretty sure the government of Israel is not run by antisemites.

    We all know that letting Hamas live to fight another day means more dead Israelis later. Why is this deal, which entails more dead Israelis later, apparently more acceptable to the Israeli government than not taking the deal? What is it we don’t know? What is on the table that is either worse than Hamas killing more Israelis later, or good enough (for whom?) that it offsets Hamas killing more Israelis later?

    This I have never understood. And I have given up expecting that anything we read in the news is going to make sense of it. I can only hope that government of Israel knows something, that isn’t the news, that would make sense of it.

  7. link: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-837718

    “Jerusalem Post” report:

    JANUARY 15, 2025 19:11
    Updated: JANUARY 15, 2025 19:52

    Israel, Hamas agree to Gaza deal, Trump says hostages to be ‘released shortly’
    “We have a deal for hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

    ___________________________________________

    This has also been reported in other places. Details are scarce; but, so far, it looks as if the rumors were accurate. How many hostages are alive? How slowly will they be released? How long will the ceasefire last? How soon will Hamas regroup and execute anoter pogrom? etc., etc. …

  8. Israel is agreeing to this because the Biden administration was threatening to allow a UN Security Council resolution pass demanding that Israel stop the war and imposing sanctions if Israel did not comply. Presumably Trump (who seems to think the war was just about getting the hostages back, and was also eager to take credit for another big “deal”) was also pressuring Israel to accept the deal. In the face of such pressure, Netanyahu really had no choice but to capitulate.

    For details, see Michael Doran and Caroline Glick.

    For three or four decades, Israel has deliberately made itself dependent on the US for the tools needed to defend itself. It could have developed the ability to manufacture its own planes, munitions, etc., but the establishment military/intelligence junta that, in conjunction with the self-appointing judiciary and law enforcement mafia, runs the country (regardless of the composition of the elected government) decided not to do that, instead channeling development into software engineering, pharmaceuticals, etc. Israel is now tasting the bitter fruit of its ruling class’s decision to make the country more or less a colony of the United States.

  9. djf:

    Trump has never indicated that he thinks the war is just about getting the hostages back. And Rubio gave testimony underlining that, as well.

  10. From what I’ve read, Trump was pretty determined to have the war ended and hostages released before he got into office, and to take credit for it, justifiably or not. I know Rubio and Hegseth are quite supportive of Netanyahu’s war aims, but has Trump personally ever said the war should not end until Hamas is gone and Israel is back in control of Gaza? Maybe I missed it, but not as far as I know. Typically, Trump is on both sides of every issue, and has supporters on both sides of every issue (except maybe opening the border and flying in people from Haiti).

  11. Also, Neo, the reports are that Trump representatives were involved, along with the Biden people, in the negotiations leading to this deal, and were pressuring the Israelis to take it.

    My main point is that Netanyahu had no choice but to swallow this deal. He is widely disliked in Israel even on the right (particularly among old-guard, elite Likudniks and by supporters of his far-right coalition partners, who will both be happy to blame him for this), but it is not his fault.

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