The appointment of John Bolton as Trump’s National Security Advisor was bound to cause controversy and criticism, and so it has.
I have always felt that Bolton is smart and tough, and much (not all) of the time I have agreed with him. Is he too much an advocate of war? To be honest, I’m not certain, and it’s hard to get a straight story on it because the media doesn’t do straight stories. I’ve just spent the last hour and a half trying to sort that aspect out, and it would take a lot more time than that to come to a firm conclusion.
Bolton does seem to have a history of alienating subordinates because of his harsh treatment of them. On a personal note—for what it’s worth, and it’s probably not worth much—about two and a half years ago I went to a public speech of his at what turned out to be a very small venue, to a very small crowd. That meant it was a pretty intimate setting, and he seemed calm and thoughtful and not at all inflammatory in his rhetoric. Afterward, I spoke to him for about 20 minutes at least (that’s how small the crowd was), and he was completely pleasant and reasonable, even self-effacing. Maybe I caught him in an uncharacteristic moment, however.
Bolton is widely hated not just on the left but even by some on the right as too truculent, and the meme is going out now that he dangerous.
Our friends at the NY Times are leading the way in today’s editorial entitled “Yes, John Bolton Really Is That Dangerous”:
There are few people more likely than Mr. Bolton is to lead the country into war. His selection is a decision that is as alarming as any Mr. Trump has made so far.
Coupled with his nomination of the hard-line C.I.A. director, Mike Pompeo, as secretary of state, Mr. Trump is indulging his worst nationalistic instincts. Mr. Bolton, in particular, believes the United States can do what it wants without regard to international law, treaties or the political commitments of previous administrations.
Somehow the nation survived Bolton’s previous stints in international relations, including his advocating that we pull out of the International Criminal Court, and his ambassadorship to the UN:
The Economist called Bolton “the most controversial ambassador ever sent by America to the United Nations.” Some colleagues in the UN appreciated the goals Bolton was trying to achieve, but not his abrasive style. The New York Times, in its editorial The Shame of the United Nations, praised Bolton’s stance on “reforming the disgraceful United Nations Human Rights Commission”, saying “John Bolton, is right; Secretary-General Kofi Annan is wrong.” The Times also said that the commission at that time was composed of “some of the world’s most abusive regimes” who used their membership as cover to continue their abusiveness.
Bolton also opposed the proposed replacement for the Human Rights Commission, the UN Human Rights Council, as not going far enough for reform, saying: “We want a butterfly. We don’t intend to put lipstick on a caterpillar and call it a success.”
Bolton doesn’t talk like a diplomat, but that’s only one of the reasons so many people despise him. In Slate, you can see more of the way the rhetoric on Bolton is going to go:
It’s Time to Panic Now: John Bolton’s appointment as national security adviser puts us on a path to war.
John Bolton’s appointment as national security adviser””a post that requires no Senate confirmation””puts the United States on a path to war. And it’s fair to say President Donald Trump wants us on that path.
After all, Trump gave Bolton the job after the two held several conversations (despite White House chief of staff John Kelly’s orders barring Bolton from the building). And there was this remark that Trump made after firing Rex Tillerson and nominating the more hawkish Mike Pompeo to take his place: “We’re getting very close to having the Cabinet and other things I want.”
Bolton has repeatedly called for launching a first strike on North Korea, scuttling the nuclear arms deal with Iran, and then bombing that country too. He says and writes these things not as part of some clever “madman theory” to bring Kim Jong-un and the mullahs of Tehran to the bargaining table, but rather because he simply wants to destroy them and America’s other enemies too.
As far as I can tell, Bolton’s “call for launching a first strike on North Korea” amounts to saying that we should retain the option of pre-emptively destroying nuclear facilities if necessary, just as Israel did:
Israel has already twice struck nuclear-weapons programs in hostile states: destroying the Osirak reactor outside Baghdad in 1981 and a Syrian reactor being built by North Koreans in 2007.
This is how we should think today about the threat of nuclear warheads delivered by ballistic missiles.
I’m really not sure what’s so very controversial about that. Has any American president, even Obama, actually said that’s not an option? Is it just that Bolton speaks about it a bit more enthusiastically and/or emphatically and/or clearly?
Here, for example, is Obama on the subject of a pre-emptive strike in Iran:
Mr. Obama’s remarks built on his vow in the State of the Union address that the United States would “take no options off the table” in preventing Iran, which says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, from acquiring a weapon. But he was more concrete in saying that those options include a “military component,” although after other steps, including diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions.
That was in 2012; we all know that the Iran deal was what happened instead. But although Obama’s rhetoric about pre-emptive strikes was certainly calmer than Bolton’s, the threat of such a strike was there.
Maybe it’s just that the world believes Bolton and never believed Obama.
As for North Korea, here’s what was going on during Bill Clinton’s administration in 1994:
At the office of the secretary of Defense in the Pentagon, a plan for a preemptive military attack on North Korea was being presented to “a small, grim group.”
“The plan was impressive,” recalled an official who was at the presentation by US military strategists. “It could be executed with only a few days’ alert, and it would entail little or no risk of US casualties during the attack.”…
And this was Obama in 2010 [emphasis mine]:
The Obama administration will release a new national nuclear-weapons strategy Tuesday that makes only modest changes to U.S. nuclear forces, leaving intact the longstanding U.S. threat to use nuclear weapons first, even against non-nuclear nations.
The post of National Security Advisor does not need confirmation, so whether or not Bolton could be confirmed (I bet he couldn’t) is not an issue.