There was an interesting discussion in yesterday’s post on the election in Wisconsin, and how abortion law in the state may have influenced it. Here’s one of the comments, from “Frederick”:
If it’s abortion to blame (for the victory of the “progressive” Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin), then shouldn’t Republicans give up opposition to abortion? If they want to win elections?
And if they do, then what’s the Republican Party about besides winning elections? Nothing. An echo, not a choice.
That’s what most of the Republican base understands, and what the party establishment never will. If the Republican Party will sell out on abortion what won’t they sell out on?
What does it mean for the GOP to “give up” opposition to abortion? The GOP has long been split on the subject between moderates who would draw the line at a number of different points, and absolutists who would allow zero abortion. This is not new, and it is a subset of a more basic dilemma in the party, one I’ve written about many times before: the difficulty of reconciling the wings of the Republican Party.
And I think that most GOP voters already trust that the party will sell out on something or other. That ship has already sailed.
I suppose some Republicans have campaigned on advocating total bans such as the one in the 1849 Wisconsin law under discussion in that previous post – but most have not. So a total ban is the position of only a certain proportion (and not a large one) of Republicans running for office. The far more common position of GOP candidates over the years has been to want to repeal Roe and leave the decision about abortion to the individual states. If I’d had to state the over-arching GOP position in recent years, I would have said it was that. Now that Roe has been overturned, that point of relative unity is gone, and the differences in opinion as to where to draw the line come out. But if Republican opposition to Roe meant anything, consistency would indicate that the decision should still be left to the states. That means that a few of the reddest states will probably have a complete ban, many blue states will have almost no restrictions, and all the other states will fall in-between.
The vast majority of Americans in both parties do not favor total bans on abortion. The statistics are as follows:
Eighty-six percent of Americans of all parties think a pregnant woman should be able to legally have an abortion if she becomes pregnant because of rape or incest, the PORES/SurveyMonkey survey found. That includes 94 % of Democrats, 88 % of independents and 76 % of Republicans.
That highlights the dilemma right there. Complete bans on abortion will almost certainly lose elections except perhaps in the reddest of states. Complete bans give the left an extremely visible and emotional campaign issue, as apparently occurred in Wisconsin. But then there’s that remainder of the Republican Party. If they are against any abortion under any circumstance, and the issue means a great deal to them, will they stay home and not vote if there is compromise from the GOP on abortion? If so, that would also lead to a GOP loss. And so either way you have a loss, and of course abortion is hardly the only issue that differentiates right from left.
Commenter “Turtler” observed: “There is something incredibly noble about drawing one’s line in the sand and fighting it out to the end, but that is not the only way to win a struggle.”
But actually, in this case, I believe it is one way (of many) to lose a struggle.
“Noble” is an interesting word, isn’t it? It makes me think of Don Quixote. He was so noble that he was pretty much insane – or perhaps he was so insane that he was noble.
Those who insist on total and complete abortion bans are noble (and not insane) in the sense that they remain faithful to an ideal. However, they lose sight of (or perhaps don’t care as much about about) the practical consequence of their actions, which is the opposite of what they intend. And they won’t listen to the Sancho Panzas on the right who suggest compromise, perhaps because the noble ones are less interested in practical results in this world and more interested in keeping their own moral hands clean.
The way I see it, compromise is necessary because the culture does not support a total ban on abortion. I’ve written a great deal on the subject, and one of my points is that abortion was already fairly common prior to its legalization at the federal level by Roe. The way to make it less common in the future is not to back unpopular total bans that will never become law in most cases but will instead enable the empowerment of the left. The way forward is to change the culture so that abortion is less favored as a solution to unwanted pregnancy.
I don’t know how to do that, but I strongly believe that is the only answer. What Breitbart said remains true: Politics is downstream from culture.
[NOTE: Please see this previous post of mine.]