How long will it take for Obama to own the economy?

The New Neo Posted on by

Barack Obama is unfortunate to have inherited the worst financial climate in many decades. But in other ways he’s a very lucky man.

One huge piece of good luck for Obama is that the bad news about the economy was almost perfectly timed to help his campaign and even ensure his election. And although his depressed and depressing economic predictions, coupled with Wall Street’s fears about the possible anti-business climate of a future Obama administration, may have helped the slide in its downward trajectory, not even those who detest Obama can really blame this recession on him.

Not only did the timing of the downturn help him, but most of the American people will give him a pass—for a while. And if things improve fairly soon, Obama will undoubtedly get the credit, whether he deserves it or not. But what if we are in for many more years of this? At what point will it become Obama’s recession rather than Bush’s?

For some people, my guess is that the answer would be “never.” For a certain unknown percentage of the American public it will always be Bush’s fault, along with every other problem the Obama administration faces and fails to master. But what about the rest of us?

Obama himself, as well as his advisers and surrogates, has been hard at work making sure that everyone understands not to expect a recovery any time soon, and that it will be a matter of years rather than months for any turnaround. That way, a quicker reversal would make Obama look even better if it were to happen, and a slow one will not disappoint too much.

Obama benefits not only from his own personal popularity, but from the fact that it is attached to what are perceived to be his inherent qualities (articulate, attractive, youthful, intelligent, black) rather than any particular policy or policies he is expected to implement. In the case of the economy, this lack of precise expectations plus Obama’s own shifting message on what he will actually do—combined with the confusion among “experts” about how best to go about improving the situation—help create increased tolerance for a period of confusion and/or experimentation and a resulting lag in the appearance of positive results.

One event that could ultimately earn Obama the disapproval of much of the American public would be if he were to institute policies that were then followed by a significant worsening of the financial situation, especially if that decline were to persist for any significant amount of time. However, a situation very much resembling that scenario failed to cause the majority of Americans to decide during the 30s that FDR was more responsible for the length and depth of the Great Depression than his predecessor Hoover was. The popular FDR was perceived by most people as acting with good intentions, and he was given a pass by most people on the fact that his policies failed to significantly improve the economy and perhaps even prolonged the Depression.

How long will people sit tight during an Obama presidency, and continue to hope for change rather than angrily demand it? This recent poll indicates that Obama will have a significant time before he is blamed if he fails to revive the economy. People are very optimistic yet very patient, at least for now; two-thirds say they believe it will take at least two years before they can expect improvement in the economy. That’s a pretty long honeymoon.

Tomorrow’s the coronation

The New Neo Posted on by

At least it feels that way, from the reports I read.

America is more excited about this particular president than any previous one I can recall, and my memory goes back quite a while. Is it merely because of the historic nature of the inauguration, based on Obama’s race? Or is it more? Is this the flip side of the mania that was Bush Derangement Syndrome? And if so, is this hope as irrational as that hatred was?

The Flight 1549 survivors escape to tell the tale

The New Neo Posted on by

Disasters leaving no survivors are not only tragic and terrifying, they remain mysterious. If no one escapes to tell the tale, we are left to imagine how the unfortunate victims spent their last moments. Was the end quick, or did it involve terrible suffering? Was it chaotic and fear-filled, or cooperative and spiritual?

We are curious because we want to know more about human behavior under extreme conditions. We wonder how we would do in similar circumstances, although we sincerely hope we will never have to face them.

And so still another fascination of the Flight 1549 story is that, unlike the misfortunes of Job, or those of Ishmael in Moby Dick…:

ialone2.jpg

…all escaped together to tell the tale.

And what a tale it is! One cannot help but be impressed not only by the mere logistics of their survival as well as its improbability, but by the near-unanimity of the passengers’ stories of calm and mutual assistance.

For a typical example, here’s a portion of the transcript of a Bill O’Reilly interview with survivor Fred Beretta:

REILLY: Now, at this point was the plane still quiet as you were descending down or were people getting a little scared?

BERETTA: It was still really quiet. I think everyone was just stunned. Sort of the reality of it was ”” people were just assimilating that.

O’REILLY: Do you remember what you were thinking?

BERETTA: I thought ”” I looked out the window and I thought there’s a good chance we’re going to die. And I did think about my family and started praying.

O’REILLY: Are you a religious man?

BERETTA: I am. Try to be.

O’REILLY: Were other people praying aloud?

BERETTA: I didn’t hear any, but I could tell. I just kind of glanced around, and people were either just sort of closing their eyes or, you know, sitting quietly for the most part. People were pretty calm.

Beretta describes an eerily quiet scene, much the opposite of the picture Hollywood usually conveys in the typical disaster movie. The Flight 1549 passengers had gone in an instant from a normal traveling day to an encounter with the high probability of their imminent mortality and, according to Beretta (and he should know), they were adjusting as best they could to the astonishingly rapid turn of events, quietly trying making their peace with whatever power they each believed in.

The Flight 1549 survivors’ stories are remarkably similar, leading to an assumption that they are highly reliable accounts of what actually occurred. Not only do most of these people mention the relative calm as the plane was going down (only a couple of sporadic emotional outbursts were reported on the part of a lone passenger or two), but passengers’ behavior after the touchdown was likewise serene and collected.

Of course, once the plane had “landed,” a sense of relief and a diminishing panic might be expected from the passengers. But the reality (and the passengers were no doubt aware of this) was that their situation at that time was only somewhat less perilous than in the moments before the splashdown. Drowning was a very real possibility, as well as death by hypothermia in the icy waters.

Rapid evacuation was therefore of the utmost importance, and a clawing for position, or even a stampede, would not have been surprising. But no such behavior occurred:

“We’re sitting with our heads down,” [survivor Carlos] described. “I’m there buckled in tight, and you just hear them over and over and over and you’re just praying.”

Carlos said the plane skidded to a stop on the river and he made it out onto a wing with the nearly freezing water rising around him and his fellow passengers.

“It was like one big family on that wing, everyone’s holding each other, this guy’s got that guy and this lady’s got that guy and no one wants to fall off,” Carlos said. “It was amazing, the human spirit, when it comes down to that everyone just got together, and was able to overcome and stay together, and everyone made it.”

And there’s this report from another passenger, a young Australian woman:

“There were no screams, tears, just a strange peace,…

It was a passenger who opened the exit door as “orderly chaos” ensued.

“There were a few women hyperventilating but I was really surprised at how calm everyone was. Normally I’d be the one in tears but honestly it happened too quickly. It was just survival instinct,” she said.

What accounts for the calm and the cooperation? Part of the cause may have been the rapidity of the entire event. From bird strike to touchdown was only three and a half minutes, and some people may have still been making the adjustment from normalcy to crisis and back again with hardly enough time to assimilate what was happening. Passenger Carl Bazarian probably speaks for many passengers (and perhaps even the crew) when he indicates he is still engaged in adjusting:

As Bazarian arrived at Jacksonville International Airport Friday morning, he told Channel 4 he was still “in a surreal world.”…

That sense of unreality will probably last quite a while. Although Bazarian and the others were spared the scenes of agony, mayhem, and death that often haunt survivors of disasters in which others have died or been seriously injured, that doesn’t mean that they were not traumatized and will need some time to readjust. But the lessons they (and we) have learned are profoundly positive ones about the possibilities for human behavior in times of great stress. I’ll leave the last word on the matter to Mr. Bazarian:

Bazarian said going through the experience bonded him with several other passengers.

“We’ll be close forever. It’s unbelievable. Keeping each other warm, assisting each other,” Bazarian said. “Great, great people. I mean really bonding. It’s incredible.”

The science of love: what fools these mortals be

The New Neo Posted on by

The NY Times reports on researchers’ attempts to discover the chemical mediators of that complex emotion we call love. Some of this research has been done with prairie voles, who seem to share humans’ ability to be monogamous—although I doubt they share a whole lot more than that:

When a female prairie vole’s brain is artificially infused with oxytocin, a hormone that produces some of the same neural rewards as nicotine and cocaine, she’ll quickly become attached to the nearest male. A related hormone, vasopressin, creates urges for bonding and nesting when it is injected in male voles (or naturally activated by sex).

The Times article quotes scientist Larry Young concerning the possible development of an anti-love vaccine, as well as its opposite, a love-facilitator. The first involves the blocking of oxytocin, the second the administration of the same substance.

My guess is that it will be quite a while (if ever) before either is even remotely effective. But literature and art (popular and otherwise) have dreamed of such things for a long time.

A few random examples from popular music. To start, here’s love as a drug-substitute:

Some get a kick from cocaine.
I’m sure that if I took even one sniff
That would bore me terrific’ly too
Yet I get a kick out of you.

Next, we have the yearning to be free of the burdens of love:

What do you get when you fall in love?
A guy with a pin to burst your bubble
That’s what you get for all your trouble
I’ll never fall in love again
I’ll never fall in love again

What do you get when you kiss a girl
You get enough germs to catch pneumonia
After you do, she’ll never phone you
I’ll never fall in love again
I’ll never fall in love again

Note, however, how even in the above song, the resolve weakens fairly quickly. In the final lines of the final verse, we hear:

So for at least until tomorrow
I’ll never fall in love again.

But the greatest of all ruminations on the subject might just be Shakespeare’s “A Midsummer Night’s Dream.” Oddly, although the author of the Times article makes what I consider an oblique reference to the play (“we might reverse-engineer an anti-love potion, a vaccine preventing you from making an infatuated ass of yourself”), he never mentions the work at all.

A little personal note is in order: in my extreme youth, I owned the Classic Comic version of “A Midsummer Night’s Dream.” I read it again and again, entranced (that’s the proper word, I think).

The wondrous mystery of it all! The magic flower with its juices which, squeezed into the eye of the sleeper, would make him/her fall in love with the first creature that met the eye on awakening. The havoc that was wreaked, including the spectacle of the majestic Queen of the Fairies falling in love with a half-man half-ass, doting on him and weaving garlands of flowers to adorn the bizarre object of her affection.

And then, after maximum messiness had been achieved, the satisfying ending in which each person is made to fall in love with the mate who is exactly right for him/her. In the play, this is accomplished by means very similar to those described in the Times piece: a love antidote is applied to eradicate the misplaced affections of several characters, and then a corrective is applied at prescisely the right time, guaranteeing that the new love object will lead to happily-ever-aftering.

The mischievous Puck, on watching the complications ensuing from his initial applications of the love potion, famously declares, “Lord, what fools these mortals be!” And indeed, love can make a person seem foolish when misplaced, and/or can lead to some of the deepest sorrow and pain we are able to feel. But when it works out (and it sometimes does), there’s hardly anything more wonderful. There are some hefty compensations for being mortal (as Starman discovered when he ate a piece of apple pie, and then again when he fell in love with Karen Allen. But I digress.)

In closing, some more music:

The mother of all Nigerian scams

The New Neo Posted on by

The following email was forwarded to me by a friend. As Nigerian scams go, it is a thing of beauty, don’t you think? And despite the scammers’ continuing inability to master the English language, the closing sentence is a masterpiece: Making the world a better place.

From: koffi annan
Subject: SCAMMED VICTIM YOUR $900,000 .00 USD COMPENSATION.
To: SCAMMED VICTIM YOUR $900,000 .00 USD COMPENSATION.
REF/PAYMENTS CODE: 02007 $900,000,00.USD.

DEAR BENEFICIARY,

This is to bring to your notice that We have been having a meeting for the passed 7 months which ended 2 days ago with the former secretary to the UNITED NATIONS. On this faithful recommendations, I want you to know that during the last U.N. meetings held at COTONOU, Republic of Benin, it was alarmed so much by the world in the meetings on the lost of funds by various individuals to scams artists operating in syndicates all over the world today. In other to compensate these victims, the U.N Body is now paying 221 victims of this operators $900,000,00.USD

Each in accordance with the U.N recommendations. Due to the corrupt and in-efficient Banking Systems in Federal Republic of BENIN, the payments are to be paid by the U.N REPRESENTATIVE here in BENIN Dr. John Michael as under funding assistance by United Nation body. Benefactor will be cleared and recommended for payment by U.N REPRESENTATIVE. According to the number of applicants at hand, 184 Beneficiaries has been paid, half of the victims are from the United States, we still have more 37 left to be paid the compensations of $900,000,00.USD each. Your particulars was mentioned by one of the Syndicates who was arrested as one of their victims of the operations, you are hereby warned not to communicate or duplicate this message to him for any reason what so ever as the U.S. secret service is already on trace of the other criminals. So keep it secret till they are all apprehended. Other victims who have not been contacted can submit their application as well for scrutiny and possible consideration.

You can receive your compensations payments via, DRAFT/CHEQUE PAYMENTS. You are advised to contact Dr. John Michael U.N REPRESENTATIVE in BENIN, as he is our representative in BENIN, contact him immediately for your Cheque/International Bank Draft of $900,000,00.USD This funds are in a Bank Draft for security purpose, so he will send it to you and you can clear it in any bank of your choice. Therefore, you should send him your full Name and telephone number/your correct mailing address where you want him to send the Draft to you.

Contact Person: Dr. John Michael
Email Address: john_michael@yahoo.cn
Tell: +229-98165794

Thanks and God bless you and your family. Hoping to hear from you as soon as you receive your payment. Making the world a better place.

Regards,
Mr. Koffi Annan
Former Secretary (UNITED NATIONS).
SCAMMED VICTIM/REF/PAYMENTS CODE: 02007 $900,000,00.USD

The man for the hour: Captain Sullenberger

The New Neo Posted on by

The universally acknowledged hero of yesterday, who made the Flight 1549 story one of a controlled landing rather than a plane crash, is US Air pilot Chesley Sullenberger

No one who knew Sullenberger (known as “Sully”) was the least bit surprised at his ability to guide the wounded plane to an unprecedentedly safe water landing in the Hudson River on a bitterly cold afternoon. If anyone could do it, this man could.

And now he’s got something new to add to his already-lengthy resume (see the second page, as well), a mix of ingredients that made him the perfect man for the hour.

Like many pilots, Sullenberger had a love of flyiing from youth. But it wasn’t just flying that interested him—it was also the psychology of meeting a crisis:

…he is a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley’s Center for Catastrophic Risk Management, which studies safety, infrastructure, and preparedness in accidents and natural disasters.

To top it all off, he was a certified glider pilot, helpful training for a situation in which he had to control a plane with its engines knocked out.

It seems, in retrospect, that Sullenberger’s entire life was a preparation for this crisis, and a reflection of his determination to meet it successfully if and when the time came. Yesterday that time arrived—and the preparation paid off for Sully, his passengers, and the unknown New Yorkers on the ground who might have been dealt death from the sky if Sullenberger had been any less ready.

The Flight 1549 story has all the right stuff

The New Neo Posted on by

We can’t get enough of this story. It contains the perfect balance of suspense and joyful resolution: harrowing danger combined with rescue from what had looked to be certain and deadly harm.

These ingredients are more ordinarily the stuff of cinema than reality. And yet this was reality, with the photos and eyewitnesses to prove it. How often is disaster averted this dramatically and this satisfyingly?

The ingredients start with an everyday situation with which we can all identify: traveling by airplane. The culprit: neither human error nor human malevolence, nor even weather—but birds, a la Hitchcock/duMaurier. The hero: a pilot with a face and a resume sent to order from central casting, only better. Co-heroes: boat captains and passengers whose ordinary day was interrupted by the extraordinary.

The outcome: perfect. Maximum relief after maximum drama.

And the wonderfulness of the story is not hurt at all by the obvious contrast with another day, when New Yorkers watched another airliner coming in much too low—that time, with nightmare consequences and from a nightmare cause.

Farewell from Bush, farewell to Bush

The New Neo Posted on by

I watched President Bush’s farewell speech last night. I was struck by his demeanor, which seemed subtly different to me: more relaxed, less smirky, more graceful. Perhaps more indicative of his real self, the one he shows to friends and family? Of two things we can probably all agree—the man feels relief, and has earned a long vacation.

Bush’s words in the speech were devoid of the anger and bitterness one would think almost anyone would feel if in his shoes. I believe he has been treated poorly by press and public, and that history will look on his administration if not with huge approval (although that’s possible too), then certainly more kindly than the first draft of history has judged it.

What did Mrs. Madoff know and when did she know it?

The New Neo Posted on by

You might ask: who cares about Mrs. Madoff? After all, it’s her husband who’s the culprit.

There’s little doubt that this is true. But a rather intriguing article appeared in today’s NY Times on the subject of the involvement (or lack thereof) of Madoff’s wife Ruth in the whole scheme. It touches on a subject relevant to other spouses engaging in other acts of crime or major wrongdoing: is it possible to fool a wife or husband about so basic a character trait?

There are people quoted in the article who say Ruth Madoff must have known; a wife would know and a wife should know. There are people who say the same thing about child molesters, serial killers, adulterers, and most of the other varieties of human wrongdoing. But it is my observation that, although it is sometimes true that wrongdoers leave a clear trail and that any spouse who doesn’t intuit what’s going on is in a state of denial, sometimes the culprits are so slick and so clever, so good at dissembling, that no one would ever know.

To think otherwise is a self-protective lie we tell ourselves to reassure ourselves that we could not be taken in this way; oh no, surely not! But the evidence points to the fact that Bernard Madoff was a master at taking people in, gaining their trust, and then politely screwing them. He fooled people who would otherwise have been wary. His reputation was spotless, stellar, and lengthy.

And his wife, apparently, was part of his game, if only unwittingly. He used her charm and friendliness to woo new investors without seeming to be in need of them. The feeling people got was that they were lucky that Madoff deigned to take their money; he was doing them a favor, not the other way around.

Here’s the Times on the subject:

Was Mrs. Madoff really blindsided? In the social circles where the couple once traveled, both possibilities are unnerving ”” that Ruth Madoff was in on this, or that she wasn’t…Either way, wittingly or not, she was an essential asset to her husband, humanizing him and drawing people into his orbit.

I’m not saying that Mrs. Madoff absolutely did not know what was what with her husband and his deals. But the article points out that she would have almost had to be a skilled accountant, devoted to studying his books, to have learned the truth of what was going on. Assuming she did not do that—and why would she have, even if she had the training?—the only other clue to the existence of the Ponzi scheme would have been her husband’s suspicious demeanor. And my guess is that, until shortly before that fateful December 10, 2008, when he claims he first spilled the beans to his wife and sons, he managed to exude the same gravitas, confidence, and reliability as ever.

It’s tempting for us all to think that we would not have been fooled had we been in Ruth Madoff’s position. But I say, isn’t it pretty to think so?

I’m for the Labradoodle

The New Neo Posted on by

The Obamas are trying to decide what sort of dog to get, and seem to have narrowed it down to the Labradoodle versus the Portuguese water dog. America votes again, and this time the mutt wins it by a hair. And this time, unlike the last election, I’m with the majority.

As the former owner of a (now-deceased) cockerpoo, a mix very similar to the Labradoodle only a bit smaller, I can say that this sort of dog tends to be one of the best around: friendly, trainable, calm, adorable, non-shedding (the latter is the trait that sold me, if truth be told). The need for regular grooming was a very small price to pay for the benefit of a dog that was relatively allergy-free, and for a home that wasn’t carpeted with dog detritus.

I happen to know a Portuguese water dog, and this particular animal is a pill. Unruly, too energetic for people not dedicated to walking it for miles every day, difficult to train—and the one I know even hates water. It does share the wonderful poodle-mix characteristic of having curly non-shedding hair rather than fur, but that’s about all it shares except genus and species.

Of course, the Obamas will now have a staff to take care of these pesky tasks. But they should be wary of the Portuguese water dog. Even the usually enthusiastic American Kennel Club has an entry on the breed that is a mite sobering, if you read between the lines:

An athletic, active breed, the Portuguese Water Dog requires daily vigorous exercise. He is very intelligent and responds well to obedience training…An animal of spirited disposition, self-willed, brave, and very resistant to fatigue.

There it is: “requires daily vigorous exercise;” “spirited disposition;” “self-willed.” These are codes for “really restless and even destructive if not walked to exhaustion, difficult to train, and stubborn.”

The key, as with any breed, is effective obedience training. Again, I doubt the Obamas will be doing this themselves, but if they plan to, it will be a time-consuming and demanding task.

So, even if it might work out in the end, why ask for trouble? Go with the Labradoodle. Your girls will thank you. America will thank you. I will thank you.