Reaching critical mass in Iraq?

The New Neo Posted on by

Both before and after we invaded Iraq, one of our problems was lack of good intelligence from inside that country. Many of our advisors were Iraqi expatriates whose information was out-of-date and not necessarily reliable, and Iraq itself seemed opaque and nearly impenetrable.

After the invasion the situation couldn’t be turned around all that quickly. Iraqis were wary, and for very good reason. Why trust Americans to have Iraqis’ best interests at heart or to be competent in building a new and better Iraq? Why believe that the awesome and terrible control of Saddam was no more? Why believe that al Qaeda and the foreign terrorists streaming into the country would not remain powerful forces?

But it seems that the long slow process of winning the trust of Iraqis has begun to pay off, and the more this happens, the more it will tend to happen. It’s a snowball effect; small accretions build on each other, and finally some sort of critical mass is reached. It’s as though the situation in Iraq immediately prior to Zarqawi’s death resembled a supersaturated solution, and his demise– and especially the resultant capture of a vast treasure trove of related intelligence on al Qaeda’s working in Iraq–was the trigger that caused a host of cascading events to crystallize, which in turn appear to be profoundly weakening the terrorist network in Iraq.

The increased trust and cooperation that probably contributed to Zarqawi’s end was no doubt due to a combination of factors, not the least of which was the nascent Iraqi government with its growing police force and army. And now (in the immortal words of none other than Bin Laden himself) since people tend to back a strong horse, with the killing of the hated Zarqawi and the arrest of many of his confederates, the US probably seems as though it just might be a stronger horse than previously thought.

Although there’s always the possibility that the following represents some sort of psych-ops operation rather than the real deal, if we can believe the authenticity of a document reported to have been recently captured by our forces, the insurgency knows itself to be in trouble:

The document said the insurgency was being weakened by the American program to train Iraqi security forces, as well as “massive attacks and arrests,” the disruption of insurgents’ financial networks and the launching of a propaganda campaign that was prompting Iraqis to believe that the insurgents were acting against the public interest.

Effective anti-insurgency and anti-terrorist operations have been slow to build, but that is changing:

So far, the June 7th strike has led to over 500 more raids. There have been so many raids, that there are not enough U.S. troops to handle it, and over 30 percent of the raids have been carried by Iraqi troops or police, with no U.S. involvement. Nearly a thousand terrorist suspects have been killed or captured. The amount of information captured has overwhelmed intelligence organizations in Iraq, and more translators and analysts are assisting, via satellite link, from the United States and other locations.

Zarqawi’s successor must be feeling at least a trifle edgy since his promotion, unless of course he aches for martyrdom. His identity and photo have already been posted with a speed that is still another indication of the recent improvement of our intelligence.

Does any of this mean that terrorist attacks such as this one will suddenly become a thing of the past in Iraq? Of course not, although it would be wonderful to see them begin to decrease.

And note the planned timetable for the increase in the use of Iraqi forces, mentioned in the same NY Times article that discusses Zarqawi’s successor:

“There is an agreement to take over the security responsibilities from the British, Australian and Japanese forces in southern Iraq during this month,” al-Zubaie said. “We hope that the Iraqi security forces will live up to their duties there. It is the dream of all Iraqis that our forces will handle security issues all over Iraq.”

Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki announced shortly after taking office on May 20 that Iraqi security forces will start assuming full responsibility for some provinces and cities this month, beginning an 18 month process leading to the eventual withdrawal of all coalition forces.

None of this means things will inevitably continue to go in the right direction. But events do build on events, not only in terms of concrete information gained, but also in terms of changed perceptions. Greater strength on the part of the allies can only inspire more people to come forward with more information, which can only increase the number of terrorists and insurgents captured, which can only result in more intelligence information gained from their laptops and the like, which can only lead to more captures and more cooperation from Iraqi citizens. It’s the opposite of a vicious cycle–that is, it’s vicious only to those who are the hunted, al Qaeda and the insurgents.

Last thread on trolls

The New Neo Posted on by

The goal of trolls? To take over a thread and ultimately a blog, and get everyone to dance to your tune. The technique? Have a feed and jump on the thread immediately, setting the tone and the topic. If at all possible, let your comments be off-topic and repetitively insulting. Have a lot of energy for this. And then, wait for the reaction of the other commenters, since–people being the way they are–reaction there will be, and plenty of it.

Trolls are many things, but among those things are provocateurs, egotists, and parasites. The first because they like nothing better than to cause a stir and get people energized and enraged, the second because they like to be the center of attention, and the third because rather than start their own blogs (or, if they have a blog, deal with the small amount of traffic they have, and try to attract more) they feed off the audience they get from a more heavily-trafficked blog.

Right now the trolls have come way too close to dominating the conversation, for the simple reason that people are responding. With trolls, as I’ve said before, the best response is no response. This is true for several reasons: the first is the aformentioned thriving on attention. The second is because trolls only give the appearance of wanting to have a substantive discussion, and only do that for a short time; there is no way to discuss issues with them in a logical and respectful manner except for very brief periods, which are a sort of setup for the next barrage of personal invective, goalpost moving, non sequitors. The tone of the troll is a dead giveaway: insulting, arrogant. And now, with the trolls on this site, the gloves and the masks are off, and they’ve dropped even the pretense (always somewhat transparent) of having a substantive discussion.

One would think trolls might have something better to do with their time. But apparently not. To a troll, there is something remarkably and deeply satisfying about what they do. Harrassment is no doubt very reinforcing to some personalities.

But what’s most interesting about trolls is how, in the playing of the game, they give themselves away. Trolls, as I’ve noted before, are instructive. They are their own worst advertisement. Even an argument with some weight to it loses something when esposed by a troll. But most of their arguments are not of that nature, they’re instead a demonstration of those logical fallacies I never did get around to writing about. Logic isn’t a troll’s interest, though. Either they simply don’t get it, or the emotional rewards of trolling far exceed the emotional rewards they might get by actually advancing an argument point by point, and following a discussion.

They also love “last touch,” almost as much as they love “first touch.”

Psychologically, the profile is similar to that of a person who makes harrassing phone calls. But perhaps more than anything else, trolls are an excellent example of what I’ve called the “Martin Higby phenomenon,” and written about, here.

This will probably be my last pronouncement on the troll problem until I implement the solution.

On the topic of trolls

The New Neo Posted on by

I’m on vacation for a few more days, and am unusually busy–having fun. A novel idea. Therefore my access to computers is far more limited than usual. For example, yesterday I hardly saw a computer at all except to post relatively early in the day.

Of course, the trolls have been out in force, jumping on the thread and trying to derail it in a fairly transparent and offensive manner. Not a surprise. I don’t have the time right now (or perhaps ever, but certainly not now) to be on constant troll patrol. So, for now, all I can ask is that you ignore them.

However, rest assured that there are remedies. I can’t employ them now because they require a certain amount of time to implement. When blogs reach a critical mass, sooner or later–if they have comments sections–they are all faced with this problem. I am planning, when I get back and have a good chunk of time, to add and/or change certain elements here that will allow me to deal quite effectively with trolls, never fear. But it will be some time before that happens, so I counsel patience.

And now I’m outta here. I do plan to post later today, however, on a more substantive and (hopefully) interesting issue.

The theme and variations vs. the symphony: on love

The New Neo Posted on by

I try to do about three miles of brisk walking every day for exercise. On rainy or snowy days, I’m off to the gym and its treadmill, which feels like–well, like being on a treadmill. But on beautiful days or even halfway decent days, I prefer to be outside.

I live in a beautiful area, and there are a wide variety of choices for walking. But, somehow, I almost always end up at the same place: a park by the ocean. It’s convenient, only a two-minute drive from my house. I know exactly what route to follow to get in my requisite three miles. It has just the right combination of flats and hills, sun and shade, dogs and owners, parents and children. Part of the walk lies in a wooded area, but most of it is open and within sight of the water, some cliffs and crashing waves, and even a couple of lighthouses. The sort of thing people journey to New England for from all over the world.

So, how could I ever ask for anything more?

And yet, to walk along essentially the same route, day in and day out, for several years? Doesn’t it get boring?

Well, every now and then I guess it does get boring–like almost anything can, even dessert. But mostly it’s not boring at all, even though it’s the same walk and the same scene. Because, like that proverbial river that one never steps in twice, it’s somehow ever-changing.

Some of this is due to variations in light and weather. When the sun is out, the place is transformed from the landscape when the sky is overcast. The wind whips the waves on a turbulent day, which is different entirely from a calm sea. The dogs change, although not so much as the weather; the canines and their owners are nothing if not creatures of habit. The babies get older. The seasons work their magic, especially the brilliant falls.

So yes, it’s the same park and the same ocean. But it’s never really the same. And, although walking repeatedly in the same place is very different from traveling around the world and walking in a new place every day, is it really so very much less varied? It depends on the eye and mind of the beholder; the expansive imagination can find variety in small differences, and the stunted one can find boredom in vast changes.

And I submit that love is like that, too. Some people spend a lifetime with one love, one spouse; plumbing the depths of that single human being and what it means to be in an intimate relationship with him/her. Others go from relationship to relationship, never alighting with one person for very long, craving the variety.

It would seem on the face of it that the second type of person has the more exciting time in love. But it ain’t necessarily so. Either of these experiences can be boring or fascinating, depending on what we bring to it: the first experience is a universe in depth, and the second a universe in breadth. But both can contain multitudes.

I’ll let author Milan Kundera take over on the subject now, since he was actually my inspiration in the first place (from The Book of Laughter and Forgetting). Here he is describing his musicologist father who, during the last ten years of his life, had lost the ability to speak:

Throughout the ten years of his illness, Papa worked on a big book about Beethoven’s sonatas. He probably wrote a little better than he spoke, but even while writing he had more and more trouble finding words, and finally his text had become incomprehensible, consisting of nonexistent words.

He called me into his room one day. Open on the piano was the variations movement of the Opus 111 sonata. “Look,” he said, pointing to the music (he could no longer play the piano). And again, “Look,” and then, after a prolonged effort, he succeeded in saying, “Now I know!” and kept trying to explain something important to me, but his entire message consisted of unintelligible words, and seeing that I did not understand him, he looked at me in surprise and said, “That’s strange.”

I know of course what he wanted to talk about, because it was a question he had been asking himself for a long time. Variation form was Beethoven’s favorite toward the end of his life. At first glance, it seems the most superficial of forms, a simple showcase of musical technique, work better suited to a lacemaker than to a Beethoven. But Beethoven made it a sovereign form (for the first time in the history of music), inscribing in it his most beautiful meditations.

Yes, all that is well known. But Papa wanted to know how it should be understood. Why exactly choose variations? What meaning is hidden behind it?

That is why he called me into his room, pointed to the music, and said, “Now I know!”

And, somehow, Kundera the son finally understood (or thought he understood; the father wasn’t telling) what his father meant:

I am going to try to explain it with a comparison. A symphony is a musical epic. We might say that it is like a voyage leading from one thing to another, farther and farther away through the infinitude of the exterior world. Variations are like a voyage. But that voyage does not lead through the infinitude of the exterior world. In one of his pensées, Pascal says that man lives between the abyss of the infinitely large and the abyss of the infinitely small. The voyage of variations leads into the other infinitude, into the infinite diversity of the interior world hidden in all things.

…Variation form is the form in which the concentration is brought to its maximum; it enables the composer to speak only of essentials, to go straight to the core of the matter. A theme for variations often consists of no more than sixteen measures. Beethoven goes inside those sixteen measures as if down a shaft leading into the interior of the earth.

The voyage into that other infinitude is no less adventurous than the voyage of the epic. It is how the physicist penetrates into the marvelous depths of the atom. With every variation Beethoven moves further and further away from the initial theme, which resembles the last variation as little as a flower its image under a microscope.

Man knows he cannot embrace the universe with its suns and stars. Much more unbearable is for him to be condemned to lack that other infinitude, that infinitude near at hand, within reach….

It is not surprising that in his later years variations become the favorite form for Beethoven, who knew all too well…that there is nothing more unbearable than lacking the being we loved, those sixteen measures and the interior world of their infinitude of possibilities.

On a Gaza beach: what hath conspiracy theories wrought?

The New Neo Posted on by

Conspiracy theories are widespread and exceedingly popular. They appeal to the all-too-human need to make order out of chaos, and to assign blame to a convenient and/or strategic scapegoat. They arise spontaneously, or they can be manipulated for political and propaganda reasons.

I’ve noted that, in my lifetime, the beginning of the extreme popularity of conspiracy theories seems to have been the JFK assassination, in which a charismatic and powerful President was blown away before our very eyes by what appeared to have been a protagonist too lowly and insignificant to have been worthy of the deed (I’ve written at greater length on this topic here).

But conspiracy theories have a long and illustrious history. One only has to look at the antiquity of anti-Semitism, just to give one example, to understand that. The blood libel, the Protocols of the Elders of Zion–there’s no dearth of illustrations on that score. And, to be equal-opportunity about it, conspiracy theories exist on both sides. I was appalled, for example, by the “Clinton killed Vince Foster” garbage from segments of the right not so very long ago.

No, unfortunately, conspiracy theories are not the sole province of one side or another; they appeal to something deep within human nature. However, that fact shouldn’t keep us from attempting, as best we can, to evaluate the truth or falsehood of conspiracy claims–because, just as not all conspiracy claims are automatically true, not all claims are automatically false, either. The situation resembles the old saying, “just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you.”

How does this all relate to the deaths on the Gaza beach, and the way they are being reported?

In evaluating such incidents, sorting out fact from fiction, and then coming to conclusions, we must rely on Arab reports vs. Israeli reports. In the present case, initial claims from the Arab side are that the deaths were a result of Israeli shells. However, the evidence from an IDF report analyzing, among other things, the content of the scrapnel, indicates non-Israeli origins for the blast.

If the IDF reports are true, this will never convince the unconvinced. Because the power of propaganda is almost immeasurably large, and (in the words of Churchill) a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to put its pants on.

In this case–as in all cases of investigations–one has to believe in the veracity of those issuing the report to be convinced of anything by it. If a person believes that Israel is a Nazilike state bent on the conspiratorial, racist, and evil destruction of the Palestinians, then how could an IDF report convince that person otherwise? Not possible. Even though the initial reports blaming Israel were pretty much nothing more than rumors, and the IDF report used forensics and science–which should ordinarily trump rumors–accepting the report still depends on believing that the IDF and Israel itself are not engaged in bending the truth for their own purposes.

So there’s an intrinsic problem in a report from any investigation (whether it be the Warren Commission, the OJ Simpson police, or anyone else) if it comes up with a finding that goes against the conspiracy grain in which so many believe. And that fact is relied on by anyone who wishes to spread a rumor for strategic reasons.

So, is Hamas trying to exploit some tragic deaths that may indeed have been caused by Palestinian mines, in order to stir up more anti-Israel feeling, both internally and around the world? To believe this would, of course, be to believe in still another conspiracy–this one on the part of the Palestinians (or, to be more exact, on the part of some Palestinians). But the evidence that has emerged so far from the competing Arab and Israeli “narratives”–as opposed to the rumors–points in that direction. And in evaluating that evidence one must take into account previous false propaganda campaigns on the part of the Palestinians that have been effectively proven as such: the initial inflated reports on Jenin, and Mohammad al-Durah’s staged footage (for an in-depth discussion of the latter, please take some time to peruse the detailed information at Second Draft).

For many years now, it’s been clear that the Palestinian authorities and press are among the world’s best purveyors of propaganda, and that we–and the Israelis–are quite poor at responding to it (I am not using the word “propaganda” in a solely pejorative sense here, by the way; I’m using it as I’ve defined it in a previous post: “information spread to influence a populace towards a certain opinion”).

I’m going to quote the post of mine further on the topic of propaganda:

Propaganda, by its very nature, is of course not a reasoned and leisurely debate in which both sides are given equal time and equal measure. Neither is it an academic exercise in politically correct fairness, nor a well-intentioned effort in being kind to the other side. It is most-decidedly one-sided. But the best propaganda is truthful, especially in this day of internet fact-checking. The best propaganda understands the arguments of the other side and counters them effectively. But all propaganda does have one thing in common: a conviction that it is acceptable to use it.

By definition, an IDF report about scrapnel and shells cannot possibly have the propaganda power of photos and video of grieving children and bodies on a beach. That is a simple fact, one the Palestinians have learned to exploit, most especially with al Durah. In that affair, Israel initially claimed possible responsibility, before a number of reports (including those from German and even French media) exonerated them and indicated that the al Durah footage was suspect–and that the most likely possibility was, if the boy was killed at all, that it was at the hands of Palestinians.

That in and of itself, however, smacks of a conspiracy theory, and an especially horrific one at that. Such a chain of events seems so much more far-fetched than the idea that Israel might have killed the boy, either purposely or accidentally (and yes, there’s no doubt that Israel sometimes does cause the death of innocent children as collateral damage–which is quite different from purposely targeting them).

And yet it is my contention that any fair-minded person who takes a good look at the evidence can only conclude that this far-fetched chain of events–false claims in the Durah case, and even the possibility of deliberate staging–is true. And that means that the fair-minded person comes to the conclusion that the al Durah incident did represent a conspiracy of sorts. Does that mean that the Gaza incident is the same? Not at all. But it means that, until further notice, it must be taken with a grain of salt and an open mind.

The al Durah affair, which was especially influential in Europe, could not have been effective as propaganda without the cooperation of some in the French press, in particular reporter Charles Enderlin, who was not present at the shooting but who edited the footage shot by a Palestinian stringer and who did the voiceover blaming the Israelis. This is what Enderlin had to say in his own defense about his rush to judgment, after so much criticism was mounted against him:

He insisted that he stated that the bullets were fired by the Israelis for a number of reasons: First, that he trusted the cameraman (Abu Rhama) who, he said, had made the initial claim during the broadcast, and had worked for France 2 for 17 years, and later had it confirmed by other journalists and sources, and the initial Israeli statements. He also stated that the IDF never asked his team to collaborate on an inquiry, even though they had written to the IDF spokesman proposing they do so. Second, that the idea of the IDF shooting al-Durrah corresponded with what Enderlin saw as “the reality of the situation not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank”…

Another French journalist, La Conte, responded as follows: “I find this, from a journalistic point of view, worrying.” It smacks, among other things, of the somewhat Ratherian claim that the truth or falsehood of certain facts is not as important as the point of view they express. That this is not what journalism is about ought to go without saying. But perhaps it needs saying, once again.

The IDF appears to have learned from the al Durah incident. This time they’ve been much quicker to launch an investigation, rather than to assume that initial reports from the scene were correct and to shoulder the blame. Time and the preponderance of evidence will reveal the truth or the falsehood of the Israeli vs. the Palestinian claims on the matter.

And what has the press learned? That remains to be seen.

Roundup

The New Neo Posted on by

Every now and then I do some linking. Now seems to be one of those times:

(1) At the news of Zarqawi’s untimely demise, many in the blogosphere (including myself) reached towards “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead” for inspiration. But not the far more lyrically gifted Dr. Sanity, who’s channeling Sondheim instead.

(2) Richard Landes speculates on whether or not the latest Gaza killing of a family on the beach might be Ballywood inspired or manipulated. A tragedy any way you look at it; you be the judge (and see here for initial results of the IDF probe into the incident).

(3) At Treasure of Baghdad, an Iraqi journalist who had not heretofore been pro-American or pro-occupation expresses joy, and a burgeoning optimism and trust, at the death of Zarqawi and its ramifications.

(4) The above Treasure of Baghdad post came via a link at Alexandra’s All Things Beautiful. Alexandra herself has been working overtime lately on topics such as Haditha; as well as the manner, effect, and media coverage of Zarqawi’s death.

(5) They can smell cocaine and cancer, and cows in heat.

Laryngitis and sympathy

The New Neo Posted on by

A few weeks ago I had a bout of laryngitis.

It’s a funny thing, laryngitis; an excellent tool for making a person feel powerless. Something most of us ordinarily take for granted—the voice—mysteriously vanishes without a word of warning. Now you hear it, now you don’t.

In this particular case, I woke up one morning (to be exact, I was awakened by a phone call), fumbled around for the receiver, and opened my mouth to say “hello,” just as I had on so many other days of my life. But alas, this time no sound emerged. I tried again, to no effect. My voice had totally and utterly disappeared.

I’ve lost my voice perhaps five times in my life, invariably after a cold. The departure of the voice always comes as a surprise, because one of the odd things about laryngitis is that it usually cannot be felt at all. The sufferer (and that may be the wrong word, because laryngitis doesn’t ordinarily involve any pain) opens his/her mouth, does whatever one usually do with the vocal cords to produce the sound known as a voice—an act that’s second nature. But nothing emerges.

And it continues to be a surprise as long as the laryngitis lasts—both to the one who has it, and to those he/she encounters. If you happen to be someone who relies on your voice for a living—a teacher, for example, or an actor—laryngitis is serious. But to the rest of us it’s not much more than a nuisance, something to weather and endure; it too shall pass.

In the meantime, it’s even good for a laugh. Real laughter, of course, isn’t possible with laryngitis; just a silent strained shaking or some sort of whistling wheeze.

This time my laryngitis had a unique feature. I discovered, while doing some housekeeping, that every time I bent over a small seal-like squeal would emerge involuntarily from my larynx, turning me into something akin to a dog’s squeeze toy. I kept forgetting about the phenomenon, and then every time I’d bend over it would happen again, and my squeak sounded so absurd to me that it would start me laughing silently, which in turn seemed so absurd to me that it would make me laugh all the more in a helpless vicious cycle.

Going out in public garnered misplaced compassion from all I met. In the market, in a store—any time I had to encounter people and talk—I was the recipient of incredible concern. The more I tried to say my voice loss was really nothing, the more dreadful and noble I sounded, and the more concern they expressed. I’ve never gotten so much sympathy for so little effort.

It occurs to me that laryngitis would be the perfect illness for a hypochondriac: minimal pain, maximal concern from others. Also quite easily faked. Not that I’d ever do that, of course. Although now, as I’m recovering from a recent cold, I feel a certain something coming on….

Seattle innovations: storms in the produce section

The New Neo Posted on by

Yesterday I was in a large Asian grocery store in Seattle. When I say large, I mean mega-supermarket size. About a hundred types of soy sauce, fifty of tofu–oh, perhaps that’s hyperbole, but definitely many more than I’ve ever seen before in one place. A fresh produce section that contained the usual suspects and so many more, some of them varieties of fruits and vegetables I’d never seen before and couldn’t identify without their labels.

While I was standing in awe in front of a bunch of mysterious greens, a mysterious sound met my ears. Actually, it wasn’t a mysterious sound, it was a familiar one: the rumble of thunder. Only it was a beautiful day, with no threatening storm.

I looked about for guidance, and at that moment the sprayers that keep the produce fresh and crisp turned themselves on. So it seems that Seattle has grocery stores that display both politeness and a sense of humor: the sprayers announce themselves with a recording of a thunderstorm, so that customer can step back and avoid getting spritzed.

What a town.

Why Zarqawi’s death matters

The New Neo Posted on by

Despite the chorus of “yes, buts…” on the left that, although Zarqawi was indeed a nasty man who deserved to die, his death will only serve as the inspiration for more terror and was therefore not such a great event, there is evidence cropping up that the positive repercussions of his demise (and the manner of it) could go far beyond the simple fact that he is no longer around to personally perpetrate graphic evil.

Claudia Rossett has laid out the possible/probable international ramifications of his death: the importance of a command leader being taken out of commission, the significance of the fact that it was cooperating Iraqis who were part of the reason he got caught, and the intelligence information that was gained and has resulted already in a plethora of arrests.

The whole event can have a cascading effect, both emotional and practical. Zarqawi traded on his image as not only an excessively brutal man but as one who cannily eluded capture, operating under the noses of the US and Iraqis. His myth of invincibility and power is shattered. But perhaps even more important is the fact that information gathered as a result of locating his whereabouts has led to what is perhaps the largest cleanup operation of terrorists ever:

In Iraq alone, some 16 or 17 terror cells were attacked at the same time as Zarqawi was killed. And the wave of arrests ”” just yesterday the Swiss reported they had broken up a cell planning to attack an El Al passenger plane ”” is like nothing I have seen before, bespeaking an encouraging degree of international cooperation. It goes hand in hand with the devastating campaign in Iraq against the terrorist leadership. Zarqawi is just the latest to fall; most of his top associates had been eliminated over the course of the past several months.

Even the Washington Post seems to agree that Zarqawi’s death may indeed have dealt a major tactical as well as propaganda blow to Al Qaeda and to terror around the world:

It is unclear which of 39-year-old Zarqawi’s lieutenants, or deputy emirs, will attempt to fill his role. But whoever succeeds him will be hard-pressed to achieve the same level of notoriety or to unite the foreign fighters in Iraq under a single command, analysts said.

Some European and Arab intelligence officials said they had seen signs before Zarqawi’s death that the number of foreign fighters going to Iraq was already waning. For recruitment efforts, the importance of Zarqawi’s death “cannot be overestimated,” Germany’s foreign intelligence chief, Ernst Uhrlau, told the Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel.

Of course, the killings in Iraq continue, as expected. But although they are still full of sound and fury and personal tragedy to these they directly effect, they may indeed signify less than they used to. New recruits to the jihadi cause seem to have few of the skills of the old ones, according to this AP report.

And this is no accident. The days of the training camps in Afghanistan are gone, many of that generation wiped out. It may be getting a great deal more difficult to recruit “quality” people, not to mention keeping them. High turnover is always a serious personnel problem.

Yes, we don’t know what the future will bring. But the signs right now are good, and we should be heartened by the fruits of the incredible effort mounted by our military, worldwide intelligence, and the Iraqi people.

[ADDENDUM: Zarqawi’s body may not be all that welcome in his country of origin, Jordan, since he enraged a few people there a while back.]

Plus é§a change, plus c’est la méªme chose

The New Neo Posted on by

I was rummaging around the house where I’m staying, looking for something to read, when I encountered an old favorite from my childhood, choreographer Agnes De Mille’s memoir And Promenade Home.

While skimming through it, I came across a passage in which De Mille, a newlywed whose husband has gone off to fight World War II (he was to remain abroad for the two remaining years of the war but returned unharmed), describes some of the conversations she endured at social events during her long wait:

For dark, personal reasons, many people could not resist this chance at cruelty. There were the intellectuals who demanded aggressively if we believed in war and asked across our dinner tables did we relish the idea of being the widows of dead heroes? There were men of peace who fulminated against destruction and argued that no idea was worth fighting for that leveled Casino or Dresden….There were the newscasters who, after the fourth Martini, swore with something akin to professional pride that the war would last another eight years….

And this was World War II, the Good War. Interesting, no?

Targeted assassinations and Zarqawi: he’s really most sincerely dead

The New Neo Posted on by

As Alan Dershowitz quite rightly points out (via Solomonia), the manner of Zarqawi’s death is really no different from what is known as “targeted assassinations,” often condemned when performed by Israel, and yet in the case of Zarqawi roundly applauded throughout the Western world.

Why the distinction? The Dershowitz piece is short and doesn’t really attempt an analysis, except to say that the difference between the two acts appears to be that Israel can do no right in the eyes of many in the international community.

But, although I pretty much agree with Dershowitz that an enormous double standard is always applied to Israel, certainly the international community is not ordinarily in the habit of cutting the US much slack, either.

So I believe something additional is involved here, and that is the fact that Zarqawi was a terrorist whom even extreme leftists and Hamas apologists have had trouble wrapping their minds around. He resembled nothing more than the bogeyman, a figure of horrific brutality more appropriate to the nightmares of childhood.

And yet here he was, seeming to revel in his status as the biggest, baddest, meanest, most-sadistic sonofabitch in the world. With video to prove it. Only the furthest gone on the left (such as, unfortunately, Nicholas Berg’s father; see here for a transcript and discussion of Berg’s post-Zarqawi’s death interview) can find empathy for Zarqawi himself.

The terrorist mastermind targets of Israel’s bombs are for the most part faceless to most of us. Their propaganda machines are much slicker than Zarqawi’s, and their profiles are much lower. Zarqawi made the error of getting most of the world to hate him with great passion. It’s what he wanted, of course; but the consequence is that even most of those who condemn the same acts when committed by Israel can’t find it in their hearts to condemn this one.

The form the condemnation takes is rather, a bunch of “yes, buts…”, especially the idea that this killing won’t help–that, like the proliferating broomsticks in “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” of Disney’s “Fantasia” (another archtypical child’s nightmare), striking down a terrorist only causes a thousand more to spring up in his place.

This is a statement of faith rather than a proven fact, but no matter; it makes good copy. My guess is that not too many have been inspired by the Z-man or the manner of his death, but I certainly cannot prove it.

But in news that has been somewhat overshadowed by Zarqawi’s death, it is appears that only hours after the announcement a stalemate was broken and three appointees of the new Iraqi government were approved by its legislature. Austin Bay is paying attention, however, and he has an excellent roundup of the positive strategic implications of Zarqawi’s death and of developments in the new government of that beleaguered country. These do not seem insignificant; please take a look.

So, once again: Ding-dong. He’s really most sincerely dead.

[Mayor]: As Mayor of the Munchkin City,
In the County of the Land of Oz,
I welcome you most regally.

[Barrister]: But we’ve got to verify it legally, to see

[Mayor]: To see?

[Barrister]: If she

[Mayor]: If she?

[Barrister]: Is morally, ethic’lly

[Father No.1]: Spiritually, physically

[Father No. 2]: Positively, absolutely

[Munchkins]: Undeniably and reliably Dead

[Coroner]: As Coroner I must aver,
I thoroughly examined her.
And she’s not only merely dead,
she’s really most sincerely dead.

[Mayor]: Then this is a day of Independence
For all the Munchkins and their descendants…