Many people expect him to abandon the country, throw it to the Putin wolf. I’ve never thought that would happen. But I do think that, in characteristic fashion, he’ll change our relationship to Ukraine in accordance with his own priorities and what he sees as America’s interests.
When the war between Russia and Ukraine began with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it was shocking and deeply disturbing. Initially I thought Russia would win handily, but that turned out to not be true and Ukraine mounted a fierce resistance. It always seemed as though it might be a futile resistance for the simple reason that Putin seemed determined to play out the old Russian way of war: throw a lot of people into it and sustain high casualties, and outlast the enemy because of Russia’s huge population.
At this point, the war has gone on for three years with much loss of life on both sides. To what end? Ukraine remains standing, and Russia has control of some extra territory that was Ukraine’s. But the war has seemingly been more or less stalemated for a long time, and meanwhile we supply a great deal of aid to Ukraine, particularly military aid.
Trump has long said he plans to negotiate an end the war. This is in line with his general dislike of war – a dislike I think we all share – and especially of US involvement in foreign wars. But my sense is that he also has a general desire for fairness to Ukraine; although the country will lose something, it shouldn’t lose its essential nationhood and most of its territory should remain intact. Nevertheless, America’s interests, which include a stable Europe, are not to endlessly fuel an interminable war between Russia and Ukraine that at this point is mostly only good for causing more death and destruction.
When I imagined what that agreement might look like, I have long thought it would involve not only some land loss by Ukraine, but no NATO membership and yet some sort of guarantee of protection. Trump might arrange some sort of deal where we help Ukraine in yet-to-be-decided ways while getting something back.
Today Trump announced he’d talked to Putin and that the negotiations are set to begin:
Trump added that the negotiating process “will begin by calling President Zelenskyy [sic], of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now,” before revealing that the American delegation to any peace talks would be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, national security adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff.
In a Facebook statement, Zelensky confirmed that he and Trump had “a meaningful conversation” about “opportunities to achieve peace [and] discussed our readiness to work together at the team level, and Ukraine’s technological capabilities—including drones and other advanced industries.”
“We also spoke about my discussion with [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent and the preparation of a new document on security, economic cooperation, and resource partnership. President Trump shared details of his conversation with Putin,” Ukraine’s president added.
“No one wants peace more than Ukraine,” Zelensky concluded. “Together with the U.S. [sic], we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace. As President Trump said, let’s get it done.”
For Trump’s part, the American president said the conversation with the Ukrainian had gone “very well.”
It is impossible to know what’s really going on behind the scenes or what Zelensky really thinks. But my hunch is that once he realized Trump was going to be the next president, he started shifting to a practical way to look at things. I doubt he wants the country to keep bleeding, and I think he sees there can be something – quite a bit, actually – in this for Ukraine, if he plays his cards right.
As best I can determine, we are still giving Ukraine military aid at the moment. Whatever nonmilitary aid Ukraine was getting through USAID has been suspended for 90 days along with other USAID payments in general, although it isn’t completely clear that humanitarian aid has completely stopped.
Also, see this, which I see as a way to put pressure on Europeans to pay their share, in typical Trumpian fashion. The article is from today:
America will no longer front the lion’s share of aid to Ukraine, the Trump administration said today in a devastating blow to Kyiv that will pile pressure on Europe to fill the void.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Washington will ‘no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship’ with its allies, adding that ‘Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine’.
He stressed that the United States was no longer ‘primarily focused’ on Europe, and said that the old continent would have to fund most of Ukraine’s defense itself in a turn away from a 75-year role as the ‘primary guarantor of security in Europe’.
The article also says there won’t be US troops in Ukraine. Is this any sort of surprise? I never thought there would be. And that Ukraine would have to cede some territory. Did anyone think there would be a peace deal without at least some territory ceded? If so, I think that person was dreaming. The details – which we don’t know yet – are what matters.
Here is one possibility, from an article that was published yesterday:
Ukraine has offered to strike a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump for continued American military aid in exchange for developing Ukraine’s mineral industry, which could provide a valuable source of the rare earth elements that are essential for many kinds of technology.
Trump said that he wanted such a deal earlier this month, and it was initially proposed last fall by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as part of his plan to strengthen Kyiv’s hand in future negotiations with Moscow.
“We really have this big potential in the territory which we control,” Andrii Yermak, chief of staff to the Ukrainian president, said in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press. “We are interested to work, to develop, with our partners, first of all, with the United States.” …
Ukraine’s rare earth elements are largely untapped because of the war and because of state policies regulating the mineral industry. The country also lacks good information to guide the development of rare earth mining.
Geological data is thin because mineral reserves are scattered across Ukraine, and existing studies are considered largely inadequate. The industry’s true potential is clouded by insufficient research, according to businessmen and analysts.
In general, the outlook for Ukrainian natural resources is promising.
That could easily be part of the deal, benefiting both Ukraine and the US.