So.
Christine O’Donnell has won the Republican primary in Delaware, handing Mike Castle a defeat. In a way, she also handed a defeat to the Republican establishment itself, serving notice that the usual rules do not apply this year, and that being anointed by the party not only does not have the usual clout, it’s more akin to the political kiss of death.
I’m not happy that she won, for the simple reason that I don’t think she can win the general (see this for some of the accusations that will come her way). And it’s the general I care about, not the internecine intra-Republican battles that her victory represents.
What profit if conservatives win the battle but lose the war? Mike Castle may have been a RINO of sorts, but he was only a half-RINO or semi-RINO who represented a vote against Obamacare. And he was very likely to have won the election against his Democratic opponent Coons, whereas O’Donnell is very likely to lose. That’s what’s called a Pyrrhic victory.
I know the purists among you say, “so what?” It’s an old argument, one we’ve had here before, and one we’ll probably take up again. Back in May of 2005 I wrote:
I don’t think that conservatives really have a death wish for the Republican Party. It’s that the extreme wings of either party are just that: extreme. As such, they tend to be inherently less practical, less willing to compromise, and more inclined towards ideological purity and purges.
But that’s not the whole story. I have become convinced that the purists believe that their ideas are so inherently logical and so obviously right (as in “correct”), that if the electorate were to just listen to candidates articulating those positions properly, even in blue states (with the possible exception of Minnesota and Massachusetts, so deeply blue as to be indigo) the scales would fall from voters’ eyes and they would elect the conservative candidates.
Back then the situation was different; the Republican Party was not in the ascendance. Now it is (look at what happened in Massachusetts, one of the two states I mentioned as being the bluest of blue). The electorate is now so upset with the political establishment on both sides that it is possible—although unlikely—that even a candidate as extreme as O’Donnell could win in blue Delaware. But the problem is that not only is O’Donnell extreme, she is also very flawed as a candidate.
It is the opposite of the situation in Massachusetts last winter. Back then we had a Republican nominee, Scott Brown, who was articulate, savvy, likable, and with very few skeletons in his closet (and those were rather attractive ones, such as his nude-ish magazine layout years ago in his modeling days). His opponent Coakley was a poor and arrogant campaigner who helped him out by committing a series of gaffes that offended even the Democratic voters of Massachusetts. Plus, Brown was no extremist; he was Republican-lite, and not really that much of a stretch for Democrats in the state to vote for.
Couldn’t the Tea Party in Delaware have come up with someone better than O’Donnell to carry the conservative flag against Coons? I don’t know, not being familiar with internal Delaware politics. But at any rate they did not, and O’Donnell is the candidate we have. And of course it is possible that she could even win, with the electorate feeling as angry as it does, and her proven ability to come from behind. Stranger things have happened.
If I were in Delaware, I’d cast my vote for her in the general. But I wouldn’t be all that happy about it.
[NOTE: The national Republican Party is refusing to give O’Donnell money because they don’t think she has a chance (probably also because they don’t like her). You might recall that the same thing happened to Scott Brown, who didn’t seem to suffer a bit from the problem because a big internet campaign was launched to support him. It may be somewhat harder to get the same thing going for O’Donnell, but we’ll see. ]