The UN’s role in Israel’s attack on Iran

The New Neo Posted on by

I don’t think much of this author’s observations on Trump, and I think he somewhat overstates the influence of the UN in the matter, but the following part is nevertheless intriguing and I would guess mainly correct:

One person is responsible for Israel’s attack on Iran: Rafael Mariano Grossi, the Argentine director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, since December 2019. …

From the start, Grossi’s investigations in Iran focused on the country’s vast effort to “enrich” uranium, to increase the proportion of radioactive U-235. Some energy reactors can operate with zero enrichment by using heavy water moderators, while others work very well with 3-4% enrichment, or a maximum of 5% of U-235.

Because the infrastructure needed to enrich uranium is extremely expensive, only a handful of the 31 countries that operate nuclear reactors have ever tried it themselves. Most simply buy it from the cheapest source, often Russia as well France, the UK and Kazakhstan.

But Iran was adding more and more centrifuges in increasingly vast facilities at enormous expense, which made no sense at all if the aim was to generate energy. The IAEA has inspectors who dutifully investigate nuclear installations — or rather those voluntarily shown to them. But they can only ask to visit nuclear installations that show up in freely available satellite photography. There was one in Iran that Grossi wanted to visit starting very early in his tenure: Parchin, some 15 miles south-east of Tehran. But his requests were persistently refused. Previous IAEA chiefs would have moved on to other things, but for Grossi it was the turning point: he had found the place where Iran was preparing to shape uranium and assemble its nuclear weapons.

From then on, his reports made it increasingly clear that Iran’s enormous expenditures, on some of the largest nuclear installations in the world, meant that it was after nuclear weapons as soon as possible.

The premise of the article is that this caused Israel to act. But I have a sneaking suspicion Israel knew it before Grossi did. However, I still find it of interest that the IAEA recently came out publicly this past Thursday with the news that Iran was going nuclear:

The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s board of governors on Thursday formally found that Iran isn’t complying with its nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years, a move that could lead to further tensions and set in motion an effort to restore United Nations sanctions on Tehran later this year. …

According to the draft resolution, “Iran’s many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the Agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran … constitutes non-compliance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement.”

That article was written on Thursday, before Israel’s war on Iran began.

Israel continues to pound Iran

The New Neo Posted on by

Israel is not fooling around this time:

Israel on Sunday attacked dozens of sites in Iran — including energy sites, radar systems, and ballistic missiles and their launchers — and killed Iran’s top intelligence officers on the third day of its ongoing campaign against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The Israel Defense Forces also bombed an Iranian refueling plane at Mashhad Airport in northeast Iran, some 2,300 kilometers (1,430 miles) from Israel, marking what it said was the most distant strike since the beginning of the operation.

And early Monday morning, the army said it struck surface-to-surface missile launch sites in central Iran …

In an earlier statement, [IDF Chief of Staff] Zamir said the Air Force was striking Iran’s “infrastructure and nuclear program in a precise and extensive manner, beyond what the enemy anticipated.”

Beyond what the enemy anticipated is probably the understatement of the year. Much more information at the link about what was destroyed. And you can find a great many more details at this link.

One of the many targets has been the Iranian intelligence community. Seems that Iranian intelligence wasn’t all that good:

Israel may have succeeded in eliminating almost the entire top intelligence commander of the Iranian regime, Israeli news outlets say.

Mohammad Kazemi, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence organization, and his second-in-command, Hassan Mohaghegh, were killed in an Israeli strike on their command center, initial reports suggest.

As has been the case in Gaza, Israel has been warning Iranian civilians to get out of the way:

Israel has issued an “urgent warning to Iranian citizens” to evacuate areas close to military sites after fresh exchanges of strikes between the two countries overnight raised fears of further escalation.

It appears that Iran has no ability whatsoever at this point to defend itself against Israeli bombing.

Vance Boelter, the Minnesota killer, taken into custody

The New Neo Posted on by

He was taken alive, which surprises me:

Vance Boelter was arrested Sunday evening in a field near Green Isle in Ramsey County, only about nine miles away from one of the shootings. Boelter was wearing dark clothing, had a backpack, and was seen near a home. He began running towards the woods and later gave up. The Ramsey County Sheriff’s Office confirmed the arrest in a Facebook post along with a picture of Boelter in custody-

“The face of evil. After relentless and determined police work, the killer is now in custody. Thanks to the dedication of multiple agencies working together along with support from the community, justice is one step closer.“

The police know more about his motives than we’ve heard so far – or may ever hear – because they have found some of his writings. My sense is that he fits the pattern of recent assassins, which is that his politics don’t fit neatly into any category, and he’s just a strange guy who snapped for some reason. Apparently he’s anti-abortion, but being anti-abortion doesn’t mean a person goes on a killing spree in the wee hours of the morning.

It’s good that they caught him, and I bet a lot of Minnesota politicians are breathing easier as a result.

ADDENDUM:

Much more about Boelner’s supposed hit list can be found here.

Happy Father’s Day!

The New Neo Posted on by

[NOTE: This a slightly edited version of a previous post of mine.]

Father’s Day. A sort of poor stepchild to Mother’s Day, although fathers themselves are hardly that. They are central to a family.

Just ask the people who never had one, or who had a difficult relationship with theirs. Or ask the people who were nurtured in the strength of a father’s love and guidance.

Of course, the complex world being what it is, and people and families being what they are, it’s the rare father-child relationship that’s entirely conflict-free. But for the vast majority, love is almost always present, even though at times it can be hard to express or to perceive. It can take a child a very long time to see it or feel it; but that’s part of what growing up is all about. And “growing up” can go on even in adulthood, or old age.

Father’s Day—or Mother’s Day, for that matter—can wash over us in a wave of treacly sentimentality. But the truth of the matter is often stranger, deeper, and more touching. Sometimes the words of love catch in the throat before they’re spoken. But they can still be sensed. Sometimes a loving father is lost through distance or misunderstanding, and then regained.

There’s an extraordinary poem by Robert Hayden that depicts one of these uneasy father-child connections—the shrouded feelings, both paternal and filial, that can come to be seen in the fullness of time as the love that was always, always there. I offer it on this Father’s Day to all of you.

THOSE WINTER SUNDAYS

Sundays too my father got up early
and put his clothes on in the blueblack cold
then with cracked hands that ached
from labor in the weekday weather made
banked fires blaze. No one ever thanked him.

I’d wake and hear the cold splintering, breaking.
When the rooms were warm, he’d call,
and slowly I would rise and dress,
fearing the chronic angers of that house.

Speaking indifferently to him,
who had driven out the cold
and polished my good shoes as well.
What did I know, what did I know
of love’s austere and lonely offices?

In Minnesota, a “politically motivated assassination”: but why?

The New Neo Posted on by

A vile act in Minnesota:

Vance Luther Boelter is accused of killing [Rep. Melissa Hortman] and her husband and seriously wounding Minnesota State Senator John Hoffman and his wife. Both Hoffman and his wife have had surgery and are expected to recover. Boelter reportedly impersonated a police officer when he attacked Hoffman and his wife at their home in Champlin, leaving them critically injured before proceeding to Hortman’s residence.

This seems to have been an obviously premeditated hit job:

According to records, Governor Walz appointed Boelter in 2019 to serve a four-year term on the Governor’s Workforce Development Board. During Governor Mark Dayton’s administration, he was a member of the Governor’s Workforce Development Council in 2016. Authorities discovered flyers with the phrase “No Kings” in his car, referencing the protests planned for Saturday against the Trump administration. They also found a manifesto and a list containing the names of other politicians and abortion clinics.

How many were on the list? Seventy, according to this article. Another article – which I can’t find at the moment – mentioned that the list contained members of both parties. Police aren’t yet describing what his manifesto said. They’re looking for Boelter, who is at large.

More on Boeltner, who seems to be a mystery man:

At various times, Vance Luther Boelter has claimed to work in the food service industry. In other moments, he’s claimed he runs large firms involved with “security situations” overseas, including Africa, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

His past is as mysterious as his whereabouts. …

David Carlson, 59, told Reuters that he has been sharing a house in Minneapolis with Boelter for a little more than a year and last saw him on Friday night. Then about 6 a.m. on Saturday, he received a text from Boelter.

“He said that he might be dead soon,” said Carlson, who called police.

Carlson, who has known Boelter since fourth grade, said Boelter worked for an eye donation center and stayed at the house because it was close to his job. Carlson said he feels betrayed by Boelter and heartbroken for the victims, adding: “His family has got to suffer through this.” …

Online, Boelter presented himself as a security expert who had also worked for global companies.

More at the link. As far as Walz’s appointment of Boelter to the Governor’s Workforce Development Board. I think that’s not especially meaningful:

A spokesperson for Walz said the governor’s office appoints thousands of people of all parties to boards and commissions. The workforce development board has over 60 people on it.

They are unpaid, external boards created by the legislature, and Walz doesn’t interview applicants, the spokesperson said. They aren’t appointments to a position in the governor’s cabinet, the spokesperson said.

My guess is that he has had a series of loosely related beefs with a number of politicians, or with politicians in general, and that he’s got some mental problems. He might not be affiliated with either major party. This seems to be the pattern lately for a lot of people drawn to political violence. I hope the authorities find him soon, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s already killed himself or kills himself as they close in on him.

Iran hits Israel

The New Neo Posted on by

It was absolutely expected that Iran would retaliate against Israel, and that some of the missiles would get through and cause damage and deaths. And that’s what has happened – eight are dead, twenty missing, and many more wounded as I write this. It’s most assuredly not over, either.

Note that, as in the past, much of the Iranian fire is directed at random civilian targets.

In response, Israel struck a new target in Iran: its all-important oil infrastructure.

Israel struck two fuel depots in Tehran, the Iranian oil ministry said early Sunday morning, shortly after Iran announced the launch of a new wave of strikes against Israel.

The IDF confirmed early Sunday morning striking the Iranian Defense Ministry headquarters as well as the “headquarters of the SPND nuclear project, and additional targets.” Israeli jets also struck fuel depots in the country, the military confirmed, noting that it had completed “an extensive series of strikes on targets in Tehran related to the Iranian regime’s nuclear weapons project.” …

Iranian media earlier reported a “massive explosion” following an Israeli drone strike on the South Pars gas field.

The semi-official Tasnim news agency said production of 12 million cubic meters of gas was suspended following the South Pars attack, which resulted in a fire that the Iranian oil ministry said was later extinguished.

Oil fields — crucial to Iran’s economy — were not targeted in the first round of strikes, but a senior Israeli security official warned on Friday that if Iran were to target Israeli population centers with ballistic missiles — which it then did — Israel would target Iranian regime leaders and state infrastructure such as oil refineries.

Israel has been planning this for years, and apparently it intends an ever-escalating series of attacks as Iran retaliates. I have been thinking that the final step, or one of the final steps, would be the assassination of Khameini, and if this is accurate then that would be the case:

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, the unnamed [Israeli] official said assassination of Iran’s top leader “is not off limits,” underlining a dramatic escalation in Israel’s strategic posture.

Bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities sets back Iran’s nuclear program – but only temporarily. Regime change is the ultimate goal.

Sebastian Haffner on how quickly things can change

The New Neo Posted on by

I’ve written quite a few times before about Sebastian Haffner’s excellent book Defying Hitler. I suggest everyone read it. Haffner, a young man when Hitler came to power, describes Hitler’s rise in harrowing and insightful psychological detail.

Right now I’ve been thinking of the following passage, which I offer here. It describes an event that occurred in Germany shortly after the Nazi takeover. At that time, Haffner was a young lawyer doing research in the library at his place of employment, the Kammergericht (Berlin’s highest court):

…[T]he intruders had arrived at the library. The door was thrust open and a flood of brown uniforms surged in. In a booming voice, one of them, clearly the leader, shouted, “Non-Aryans must leave the premises immediately.” … Someone … answered, “They’ve already left.” … My heart beat heavily. What should I do, how keep my poise? Just ignore them, do not let them disturb me … I read a few sentences mechanically: “The defendant’s claim that … is true but irrelevant … ”

Meanwhile, a brown shirt approached me and took up position in front of my worktable. “Are you Aryan?” Before I had a chance to think, I said, “Yes.” He took a close look at my nose – and retired. The blood shot to my face. A moment too late I felt the shame, the defeat. I had said “Yes”! Well, in God’s name, I was indeed an “Aryan.” I had not lied; I had allowed something worse to happen. … What a disgrace to buy, with a reply, the right to stay with my document in peace! I had been caught unawares, even now. I had failed my very first test. I could have slapped myself.

As I left the Kammegericht it stood there, gray, cool, and calm as ever, set back from the street in its distinguished setting. There was nothing to show that, as an institution, it had just collapsed. There was also nothing about my appearance to show that I had just suffered a terrible reverse, a defeat that would be almost impossible to make good. A well-dressed man walking down Potsdamer Strasse.

That tells you how extraordinary a writer Haffner was (real name: Raimund Pretzel). He also happened to live through extraordinary times, but although his life was less dramatic that many lives during those turbulent times, he was a keen observer who spared no one, including himself. His “voice” reminds me somewhat of the writing of Primo Levi, another keen observer and fine writer who lived through those same times and whose path led to Auschwitz.

The reason I highlight this passage is that I believe that for Haffner it wasn’t just a moment of historical transition, but one of personal transition as well. The court he had once respected had collapsed, despite outwardly looking the same. And Haffner had suffered a simultaneous disruption. He didn’t collapse, but he knew he had been tried and found himself lacking the internal integrity he might have previously imagined he would have demonstrated under such circumstances. He judged himself harshly, but I don’t judge him harshly. I very much doubt I – or most people – would show any more courage, especially as a young person with so much of life ahead.

But that’s the problem, isn’t it? Or at least part of the problem.

We have been observing the collapse of once-respected institutions that had seemed stable – our legal system being one of them. The fact that it was respected doesn’t mean it was perfect; far from it. But it wasn’t hollowed out. Now it has come very close, and at least half of America seems to think that’s just fine if it’s done in the service of getting Trump.

It’s Flag Day, Trump’s 79th birthday, and the 250th anniversary of the US Army

The New Neo Posted on by

So let’s have a parade:

On June 14, 2025–the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday–the nation will honor its legacy with a grand military parade in Washington, D.C. President Donald J. Trump will join veterans, active-duty troops, wounded warriors, Gold Star Families, and Patriotic Americans from across the country to celebrate our heroes who have protected our country through strength and selflessness.

The left detests the entire idea and has planned a slew of protests:

Protesters are taking to the streets and community hubs nationwide on Saturday in what organizers expect will be the largest single-day anti-President Trump rally since the start of his second administration.

Why it matters: The widespread movement will run counter to Trump’s multimillion dollar military parade in D.C. June 14.

“No Kings is a nationwide day of defiance,” organizers wrote. “From city blocks to small towns, from courthouse steps to community parks, we’re taking action to reject authoritarianism.”

More than 100 pro-democracy advocacy groups are partnering to organize the No Kings events.

What they’re saying: “Donald Trump wants tanks in the street and a made-for-TV display of dominance for his birthday,” the No Kings website said.

They like authoritarianism just fine when it’s their authoritarianism, of course.

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the demonstrations involve some violence. The preparations:

Republican governors in Virginia, Texas, Nebraska and Missouri are mobilizing National Guard troops to help law enforcement manage demonstrations.

There will be “zero tolerance” for violence, destruction or disrupting traffic, and “if you violate the law, you’re going to be arrested,” Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin told reporters Friday.

In Missouri, Gov. Mike Kehoe issued a similar message, vowing to take a proactive approach and not to “wait for chaos to ensue.”

It’s hard to believe Trump is that age, but he is. He has more energy than most 40-year-olds.

Israel shows Iran some consequences

The New Neo Posted on by

I wonder what it would take to get Iran to give up on the idea of annihilating Israel, short of an Iranian regime change. At the very least, the events of the past few days should have convinced them that when the Israelis say “never again,” they mean it.

As time goes on we learn more about the Israeli attack and how it was accomplished. Although we don’t know what’s truth and what’s fiction, with the knowledge of what happened to Hezbollah via some pagers, we probably find it all plausible. So regarding Iran we have – for example – reports on what the Mossad managed to do in Iran:

Israeli spies smuggled missiles and secretly hid explosive drones deep inside Iran in a series of covert operations leading up to Friday’s deadly onslaught – before tricking military leaders into gathering for a meeting so they could be wiped out.

Intelligence agents with Mossad, Israel’s top spy agency, started infiltrating the heart of Iran several months back in order to pull off the surprise attack aimed at obliterating Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as a swath of top military commanders.

I’d love to know how they tricked the Iranians into assembling for a meeting, but I doubt those details will be revealed.

There’s plenty of speculation about Trump’s exact role, as well. But here’s what Trump wrote:

I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliner’s [sic] spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!

Trump has been a busy guy since he was inaugurated in January.

Iran has lobbed missiles at Israel in retaliation, killing three people so far although most of the missiles have been intercepted:

Channel 12 quoted an unnamed Israeli political source as threatening Iran with escalated strikes.

“Iran will pay an unbearably heavy price for firing at civilian areas,” the source was quoted as saying. “We know what Israel hit [in its attacks on Iranian targets today],” and we know what Israel decided not to hit. And that’s the next step.”

The remark appeared to be a reference to potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy and infrastructure targets.

Or to Khameini?

Meanwhile, what I call the Tucker Carlson right isn’t happy at all:

Nick Fuentes said “this is the final battle in Israel’s 50 year reign of terror to destabilize & destroy every country that resists their rule.” Candace Owens called Israel’s “bloodlust” demonic. Matt Stoller doesn’t think Israel’s “bloodthirsty insanity” should be “our problem.” Crisis magazine’s Eric Sammons doesn’t think Catholics can support Israel’s attack on Iran. UFC fighter and podcaster Jake Shields is “sick and tired of paying for and fighting Jewish wars” and demanded the destruction of Israel. Dan Bilzerian said, “These jews just can’t help themselves, they attack Iran unprovoked, and they’ll be crying about how they don’t feel safe by morning,” adding, “If I was the president, I would round up every politician supporting Israel and have them all tried for treason.”

Legal whiplash on the National Guard and Trump

The New Neo Posted on by

That was quick:

A federal appeals court late Thursday ruled that the Trump administration can maintain control over National Guard troops in California, and continue to deploy them against rioters in Los Angeles, blocking a lower court ruling that President Donald Trump’s federalization of the guardsmen was unlawful.

A three-judge panel on the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals restored Trump’s authority over the deployment of at least 4,000 California National Guard troops and several hundred Marines.

Earlier, a federal judge had ruled in favor of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who had sued Trump over the federalization of the National Guard, after anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) protests in Los Angeles turned into riots over the weekend.

I doubt Newsom will prevail on this issue, except temporarily. But he could, because this stay of the stay is only temporary, too.