Home » Open thread 2/7/2025

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Open thread 2/7/2025 — 34 Comments

  1. Plug for Common Cents. Recent posts:

    – Boy did we dodge a bullet. FULL VIDEO of uncensored Kamala Harris 60 minutes interview.

    – 79% agree w/ Trump/GOP on no men in women’s sports.

    – Army recruitment at 15 year HIGHS in January!

    https://www.commoncts.blogspot.com

  2. In one of Groucho’s movies there is a scene at a restaurant where he picks up the dinner bill, looks at it, and tells his dining partner – a sophisticated lady of means – “this bill is outrageous; I wouldn’t pay it if I were you,” upon which he tosses the bill across the table to the lady.

    I have actually done the above several times – just as a goof – and it usually elicits a chuckle or sometimes a dirty look.

    Somewhat analogous to this, while at a coffee shop that provides free refills: ask the server what a coffee drink costs , wait for the response, and then ask how much are the refills.
    The server will say, “refills are free.”
    Then say, “well, in that case, I’ll have a refill.”

    Yep, I have also done this as well or suggested that someone else do it. Sometimes the server just laughs or gets slightly annoyed, though those on line that hear this usually chuckle.

  3. I’m sitting on the couch one weekend a few years back, and A Day at the Races is on TV.

    My nine year old son walks in right about the time Chico starts selling Groucho a program for the races that day. Great scene, but I assume my son is a little too young for this, and will soon wander off to do something else. He was entranced. By the time Groucho walks away with an entire encyclopedia worth of books, he’s laughing about as hard as one can laugh. It was great.

  4. I have written here before about the decrease in the objectivity and reliability of government generated statistics, which are supposed to give policy makers a read on how their policies are working–or not–and give these policy makers, and the the public at large, an accurate picture of how the economy is doing but, which, in the last several years, perhaps even decades, appear to have been increasingly manipulated for political/ideological reasons.

    Just by coincidence–I’m sure–it appears that the folks at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which issues a lot of these key statistics–things like the monthly inflation inflation percentage, employment and unemployment statistics, etc.–have filed preemptive lawsuits, attempting to prevent DOGE from getting in there, and looking at their books.*

    These supposedly neutral statisticians are the people who, during the Biden Administration, you might remember, suddenly revised their number for jobs created between April 2023 and March 2024–touted by the Biden Administration as evidence of the success of “Bidenomics,” and widely reported–downward by 818,000 workers, reportedly the greatest single downward revision in the last 15 years.

    * See https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/02/06/doge-is-coming-for-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-knees-are-already-knockin-n3799568

  5. The latest from James Howard Kunstler:

    https://www.kunstler.com/p/how-it-worked

    The scam, that is.

    Excerpt:

    “Some actual persons will have to be held accountable for all the mischief carried out in rogue agencies over many years. It has to start somewhere. I nominate Samantha Power as a first test case. She was in charge of USAID for nearly four years — until Jan 20, 2025 — including the duration of the Ukraine War. She was also personally very busy hands-on in arranging attempted color revolutions in Hungary (failed, against Viktor Orban), Georgia (failed), Mexico (failed), and Brazil (succeeded against Jair Bolsonaro). Ms. Power provided money from USAID-connected NGOs to foster instability in many more countries, including our country. It must have come as quite a shock to her that Kamala Harris did not win the 2024 election. USAID will not be paying for Ms.Power’s legal representation.”

    USAID won’t, but another swamp agency or NGO might. Vigilance.

    Briefly:

    On the J6 cases and our precious Rule of Lawr, I’m with recently retired litigation attorney Kurt Schlichter in this column from early December:

    https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2024/12/05/trump-needs-to-pardon-all-the-j6-political-prisoners-on-day-one-n2648598

    I didn’t think Trump would do it. Glad he did.

    On parallels between the situation in this country and the lead-up to the Spanish Civil War, a retrospective tip of the hat to long-banned commenter Zaphod, who pointed out the similarities, repeatedly, in the dark days of 2020-2021.

  6. Not too keen on Trump’s no tax on overtime. A lot of overtime is voluntary and worked by seniority privilege for the express purpose of increasing retirement pay.

  7. John Tyler – in a similar vein, I was at a grocery store and the cashier asked for id. As I was pulling out the driver’s license, my Medicare card also came out. I showed it to her and asked if this was enough. The young clerk was puzzled, but the man behind me burst out laughing.

    Snow – if my memory is correct, the job statistics were usually reported on the low side for the first Trump administration and then quietly corrected upward a few months later. Of course, it went the other way during the Biden years.

    On other matters – It is obvious that many people in the government have never experienced an audit or even an internal review even though internal financial auditors are usually tougher than external auditors.

    As an external auditor, we went in during the year to look at the process and internal accounting controls so that when we came in at year end, we could rely on the systems for the financials. But, an auditor would never make the journal entry to correct an error. We might propose a correcting entry, discuss it with management and then follow through to make sure that the correction was made.

    The DOGE guys are using AI to look for trends, using read-only access. I doubt that they or Musk have officially made any changes. They are just disclosing the issues. The decision makers (Trump and Co) are the ones authorizing the changes.

    If DOGE is looking at the computer code, I hope they are looking for bots, malware, fraud, etc that has been embedded in the code. Imagine if there is a line or two that takes rounding on a check and sends that .00154 cents to an account that gets cleared out to an offsite location. Multiply that .00154 by millions of transactions and it is a significant number.

    And, there are DOGE caucuses in Congress who are also looking at the newly revealed information to make changes in the law.

  8. I’m not sure anyone is going to find anything done at USAID that is actually illegal. They just didn’t have any accountability and directed the money in ways other than intended but not in ways actually forbidden, is my estimate. And so the only proper response is firing, really, and making them do work that actually should be their priority and firing them if they refuse.

    They had no business whatsoever funding domestic NGOs engaging in domestic politics. Had they stuck to the foreign starving children they try to pretend is all they do, none of this would be happening.

  9. This is in response to Mike Plaiss’s comment above. In a similar situation years ago, my son (around 7 or so) and I were both home ill. We were holed up in my king size bed watching TV. We started watching ‘Block-Heads’ with Laurel and Hardy. I don’t think two people ever laughed harder. My son is now 29, but we still talk about that day, and quote the movie frequently. There is something universal about the humor of the Marx Brothers, Laurel and Hardy, Buster Keaton, and others. Anyone with a taste for such things, if you have never seen ‘Block-Heads’, I highly recommend it.

  10. How much does it cost to make a penny? Google search:

    The cost to produce a penny in the United States was 3.07 cents as of 2023, which is more than three times its face value … U.S. Mint lost $179 million in 2023 due to penny production

    That’s one of Musk’s targets. Whatever happened to ‘A penny saved is a penny earned‘ concept?!

    Have seen lots of figures in the $100’s of millions wasted. Using just an average of $175-million times about 5,714.285 equals about a Trillion Gringo Dollars. $100’s of millions can add up quickly

    Musk is the right man for this job – and ‘Feel‘ he can save us over $2-trillion this year—even with the lawsuits getting in the way. More in future years when the lawsuits settle down.

    The Swamp is gonna look to expose who-what-how is involved in stealing their money – examples would be Mr. “Big Balls” and Marko Elez, so care is needed in the amount of bragging ‘n finger pointing from President Trump…and also Musk if he is doing such.

    Less talk ‘n more action – less than 4-years left…

  11. Not too keen on Trump’s no tax on overtime
    I’m not keen on any “no tax on [insert protected class here]” carveouts. How about a flat tax on all income? As a bonus, think of the savings of time and money spent by everyone on processing taxes.

  12. I’m not sure anyone is going to find anything done at USAID that is actually illegal.
    ==
    See Michael Kinsley’s aphorism. “The scandal isn’t what’s illegal; the scandal is what’s legal’.
    ==
    And so the only proper response is firing, really, and making them do work that actually should be their priority and firing them if they refuse.
    ==
    The institutional culture allowed this. Shut the institution down.
    ==
    I have not checked the Appendix to the Budget of the United States Government, which will have some numbers. Supposedly, they have 10,000 employees. The public school district in Omaha, Neb. supposedly employs 7,000 people. It’s a reasonable inference USAID is not providing hands on services. They’re sloshing grant money around to intergovernmental agencies, foreign governments and well-connected NGOs. That’s an activity we can and should do without.

  13. Karmi mentions the interest by Musk/DOGE in getting rid of the penny.

    It’s probably a good idea, but I also think that we need $200 and $500 dollar bills. I’d put Ronald Reagan on one of them. Other presidents? Coolidge? McKinley?

    One counterpoint to my thought is: When out and about in my community partaking in some food, drink, and music; cash is beginning to feel like a passé mode of transaction. Those RF credit card readers are everywhere, and just about everyone is using them. The clerks look at the paper money and you can see the thought “Really?!” cross their faces.

    Side point: The only Raymond Chandler novel I’ve read is “The Long Goodbye” largely because the movie intrigued me. One of the key elements of the story is “a Madison.” A $5,000 dollar bill. Back in 1953, that was a lot of money.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Goodbye_(novel)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Goodbye_(novel)#/media/File:US_$5000_1934_Federal_Reserve_Note.jpg

  14. How about a flat tax on all income?
    ==
    Naah.
    ==
    We should have a broad definition of taxable income which includes no deductions and no exemptions beyond a general per person exemption for the income of each household (if that). Some things that fall under the heading of personal income might be excluded from the definition of ‘taxable personal income’ – Social Security, unemployment compensation, Supplemental Security Income, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans’ benefits, disaster relief, and the excess of nominal interest over real interest – but there would otherwise be no interest in how you acquired or spent your personal income.
    ==
    IMO, your federal personal income tax liability should be determined thus:
    ==
    L = (0.40 x T) – P – ($c x m),
    ==
    where ‘T’ is your taxable income, ‘P’ is your payroll tax with-held over the year, ‘$c’ is a dollar-value credit (which value is adjusted each year pari passu with the annual change in nominal personal income per capita), and ‘m’ is the membership of your household for tax purposes. If you have a negative liability, you are due a net rebate the maximal value of which would be the absolute value of “L”. However, each household would face a cap on their net rebate which might be less than |L|, in which case you’d be due the capped value. If none of the signatories of the return qualify as elderly or disabled, the capped value would be a linear function of earned income. If all were elderly or disabled, it would be a linear function of personal income per capital in your region. If one was and the other was not, you’d take an average of these two values. If one of your signatories had a status change during the year, you’d calculate the cap for each segment of the year and take a weighted average. Your net rebate is then appended to what was withheld in re your personal income tax during the year and the total is remitted to you in installments.
    ==
    Appended to that might be another set of adjustments: FICA would be assessed on total employee compensation and the % assessment and the maximum dollar value of the levy would be set so as to finance Social Security and Medicare entirely from levies on employee compensation. Unemployment compensation would be financed in part by such a levy and in part by an actuarially-rated charge on employers. So, your payroll tax liability goes up, but it offsets your personal income tax liability.
    ==
    At the same time, a menu of federal programs which subsidize people’s mundane expenditures could be scrapped as you’re handing out cash rebates and have replaced the EITC program. These would include SNAP and other programs of the Food and Nutrition Service (USDA), all programs financed by HUD, as well as TANF and other programs financed by the Administration for Children and Families (HHS). In the realm of peculiar expenditures, federal grant and loan programs financing people’s schooling might also be terminated over a period of years for all but veterans’ and those in certain niche clientele. Providing and financing education is properly a state and local function bar for a menu of small segments who fall through the cracks.
    ==
    As for capital gains taxes, you apply a price index to the purchase price and then tax the difference between the sale price and the indexed purchase price. If you had a real capital loss, you acquire a credit with federal tax collectors which is indexed each year and can be worked off with future personal income or capital gains liability. If you make use of the same terminal rate as you do on income (40%), federal collections for capital gains liability might sum to around 0.2% of gross domestic product.
    ==
    Posit a world where actual collections from personal income and capital gains taxes sum to north of 3.5% of gross domestic product and are placed in a loosely dedicated fund devoted to the finance of a list of programs (e.g. Medicaid, SSI, disaster relief, &c). General revenues for the federal government might be derived from an amended corporation tax set to corral about 2% of gross domestic produce and a new value-added tax set to corral 8-9%.
    ==

  15. …I assume my son is a little too young for [“A Day at the Races”], and will soon wander off to do something else. He was entranced. By the time Groucho walks away with an entire encyclopedia worth of books, he’s laughing about as hard as one can laugh. It was great.

    Mike Plaiss:

    Your story touched my heart. 🙂

    The Marx Bros are evergreen. So this afternoon I’m watching “Races” again at odd intervals. I’m noticing how well-composed the shots are. Then there’s dialog like:
    _____________________________________

    I didn’t know there was a thing the matter with me until I met [Dr. Hackenbush (Groucho)].
    _____________________________________

    Mrs. Upjohn must have been a Democrat.

    Margaret Dumont, who played Mrs. Upjohn, got a Best Supporting Actress award for the role.

    The Marx Brothers are like Louis Armstrong. They’re way old-school but you can always go home again.

  16. How is Senate Majority Leader John Thune doing? Have never really kept up with Senate confirmations – other than Supreme Court – until this year, and it seems candidates have been moving along fairly fast—with a lot already confirmed. Haven’t heard much on Thune either, but he seems to be working hard in the background at least.

    Senate Majority Leader John Thune: Trump Has ‘Decisive Mandate,’ Senate ‘Moving as Quickly as We Can’ to Confirm Entire Cabinet

    As of Wednesday afternoon, the Senate has confirmed 12 Cabinet-level officials for Trump—double the pace of both Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s only term at this point—and it appears as though after major breakthroughs with the remaining nominees in the process that the Senate will end up confirming Trump’s entire Cabinet soon.

  17. The internet is littered with stories about people being caught, prosecuted, and sentenced for various non-violent crimes, fraud among them, and these sentences often include the requirement that the guilty person has to pay “restitution.”

    Linked blow, for instance, is a report about a corner grocery store owner who figured out a way to defraud the SNAP program of $2 million dollars and, as part of her sentence, is ordered to pay back $1.8 million in restitution.*

    Whoever ordered these restitutions, meant both as further punishment, and as a deterrent, is dreaming.

    I’d bet that, in most cases, the crooks will never pay back even a fraction of the ordered restitution, and unless they are among the wealthy, they’re not the kinds of people who have a savings account or other valuable assets, and are very likely flat broke.

    In many cases the money has already been spent and/or hidden away somewhere, and the crooks either won’t or can’t get a job, and when they do, it’s not likely that they will be able to get the kinds of high paying jobs which will allow them to pay back even a small fraction of the court ordered restitution amount.

    Some other much more effective form of punishment/restitution has to be figured out.

    * See https://thefederalist.com/2025/02/07/oh-snap-millions-of-taxpayer-dollars-blown-on-free-food-fraud/

  18. Trump slaps sanctions on ICC over ‘illegitimate and baseless’ Netanyahu arrest warrant

    Trump, 78, signed sanctions into effect via executive order to target ICC officials, employees and their immediate family members with financial penalties and visa restrictions.

    Trump’s executive order slammed the ICC for “illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and our close ally Israel.

    “The ICC has, without a legitimate basis, asserted jurisdiction over and opened preliminary investigations concerning personnel of the United States,” his executive order continued.

    “This malign conduct in turn threatens to infringe upon the sovereignty of the United States and undermines the critical national security and foreign policy work of the United States government and our allies, including Israel.”

  19. @ Chases Eagles > “A lot of overtime is voluntary and worked by seniority privilege for the express purpose of increasing retirement pay.”

    This is true, and the unions milk overtime for a lot, considering they also have (according to some stories I have seen over the years) officials whose salary actually pays for them to do union business on company time.

    However, at the lower levels, overtime pay is sometimes the difference between supporting yourself and having to go on welfare, which is the situation for one of our sons. He works graveyard in a small, niche manufacturing facility which (understandably) can’t keep employees on that shift, so he works a lot of mandatory overtime because he’s the only staff they have.
    The extra money is really handy, but he would rather not have to do it.
    Exempting that income from taxes would not be a lot for the government to lose, but would be relatively important to him.

    OTOH, I like the flat tax proposal a lot: no exemptions, no subsidies.
    It’s worked for God for a couple of millennia.
    @ Dax > “As a bonus, think of the savings of time and money spent by everyone on processing taxes.”

    The easiest tax form I ever saw, many years ago, which is what the government has, effectively, almost implemented:
    How much money did you make? Send it in.

    @ Art Deco – I would really like to know what your professional / avocational background is, because you have obviously thought about a LOT of fundamental changes in government functions, on a very granular level, most of which seem to be distinct improvements.

  20. Re: Taxes / tips

    So am I now freed from paying tips on taxes for restaurant meals?

    And what about expected tip rates? I recall 15% was standard for good service. Now the computerized checkout sometimes starts at 20% no matter what the service.

  21. Both children and adults being enchanted with Groucho reminds me of Rocky and Bullwinkle. As a child I greatly enjoyed Rocky and Bullwinkle. I was surprised that my father also liked Rocky and Bullwinkle. After all, he didn’t like other cartoon shows. I needed to become an adult to understand why my father liked it. (On the other hand, both my father and I as a child liked Tom Lehrer.)

    One of my regrets is associated with a Sunday dinner guest who was from Fergus Falls, Minnesota, when I was in 8th grade. I didn’t have the gall to ask if she were from Frostbite Falls, Minnesota, the purported home of Rocky and Bullwinkle. (Frostbite Falls was a takeoff on International Falls, Minnesota). 🙂

  22. Observation ‘n Musings – not a critique (?). Less than 3-weeks in Office and lots of happy news for most Conservatives & MAGA faithful.

    I didn’t pay enough attention during President Trump’s first term, and later discovered it was a mistake—hence the Trump Tally this time around.

    Right now it shows 5-Strong vs 3-Weak but am still holding a couple things back—like the recently “leaked” Trump “peace plan” where he caves to Putin’s demands and basically gives Ukraine to Russia (a disaster for Ukraine, NATO, Europe, and America). Another one being help back is his new Gaza “plan” (a move I like). Those two may wash each other out on the Tally, but both could erode Republican support in 2028. Now this one today:

    Christians furious as Trump appoints ‘heretic’ preacher to lead White House Faith Office – Potential of a lot of erosion there.

    Less than 3-weeks in Office and many Conservatives wonder how and why ‘anyone could possibly vote for Democrats.’ Such should look into a mirror, IMHO, i.e., Republicans are *BIG* Govt supporters (like DEMs—tho they only want their choices of which parts), and there is a lot to dislike about them. If the Republican agenda was ‘so great compared to the Democrat agenda’ then there wouldn’t be so much back ‘n forth of majorities & minorities in Congress – nor such with the Office of President.

    VP Vance is tied at the hip with President Trump right now, but Trump is volatile…so that could change Vance’s chances for 2028—as well as such Republican support erosions mentioned above. If Trump caves to Putin…I’d probably vote against Republicans in 2028. Who else would or maybe not vote at all?

    Interpretation of the Abrahamic Religions’ scriptures is:

    Interpretation is the act of explaining, reframing, or otherwise showing your own understanding of something.

    People become fierce in their support of certain interpretations, and non more so than different Christian denominations (“over 45,000”) & sects defending their ‘interpretation of the gospel’. Potential of huge erosion there—by 2028. In the same linked article – Trump says:

    Trump said on Thursday he would create the White House Faith Office and direct Attorney General Pam Bondi to lead a task force on eradicating what he called anti-Christian bias within the federal government.

    Totally agree with that move, especially with how the Left treats Jews ‘n Christians in America. Still, will that erode some support he had this past election that helped push him across the finish line with the Win?

    Almost 4-years to go…

  23. threw an error with an attitude:

    ___@ubuntu:/usr/local/bin$ ps – ef | grep “python3”
    error: garbage option

  24. Update on Marko Elez…

    Musk-Vance Tag Team Delivers Knockout Blow To Cancel Culture, Rehires DOGE Staffer

    The aide, 25-year-old Marko Elez, had stepped down Thursday after The Wall Street Journal linked him to a pseudonymous X account reportedly containing racist posts. His return followed a Friday morning poll by Musk asking users whether to rehire Elez, with 78% of over 385,000 participants voting yes. Vice President JD Vance also backed Elez’s reinstatement, arguing “we shouldn’t reward journalists who try to destroy people.”

    “He will be brought back,” Musk wrote. “To err is human, to forgive divine.”

  25. It appears that the Left, which has captured essentially the whole government apparatus, has been using Federal tax dollars–our money–as their very own checking account and, as we’ve seen from the examples coming out of USAID, has been using that money to pay for every wacky program they can think of, especially if had something to do with LGBTQ+; programs which also often served the cause of the Culture War against traditional Western culture, aiding in destabilizing the countries which they were supposed to be stabilizing.

    This while, on the other hand, the aptly named “beltway bandits”–various consultants, experts, administrators, and managers–often claimed a large percentage of these funds.

    Funds which, when they even arrived in some countries, were then promptly stolen by the ruling “strong man,” “big man,” dictator, or by various ruling elites and/or government officials.

    Below for instance, is a report, out a few years ago, which claimed that only 2% of the billions of dollars in U.S. aid we gave to Haiti ever got down to the actual poor Haitians it was supposed to help. *

    * See https://cepr.net/publications/where-does-the-money-go-eight-years-of-usaid-funding-in-haiti/ supposed recipients

  26. From the revelations coming out of USAID, and given the beltway bandit crowd, it is a miracle if any aid which might actually help a country gets to the people in these countries which this aid is supposed to help.

    This whole “aid” thing—as we are finding out—is just a shambles, a train wreck, which needs to be completely rethought and reformed.

    My bet is that, as DOGE moves through various US government Departments and Agencies, it will find many of the same kinds of shambolic programs, and wastes of funds.

    It appears as if many of our government’s programs are just cash cows, fed on by all sorts of people and interests, and often not doing what they were actually set up to do.

  27. Given the 2 million strong federal bureaucracy, various interest/pressure groups and the beltway bandits, the enormous number of programs, and the increasingly astounding amounts of money involved, it is pretty obvious that this whole massive system is way too complex, is leaking money, is very vulnerable to misuse, and needs to be radically reformed, simplified, and especially reduced in cost to us taxpayers.

  28. “…wastes of funds…”

    Not exactly.
    The money IS going somewhere.**

    Rather impressive that Obama/“Biden” has turned the US government into one giant money-laundering slush fund.

    ** Which is why, for example, the needy victims of Hurricane Helena (and, before that, the East Palestine train disaster) never saw much of it…and not very quickly, at that.

  29. I don’t know if Upjohn was a Democrat, but Groucho Marx certainly was. He was against FDR breaking precedent in running for a third term, yet Groucho remained a Democrat all his life. When Harry Truman won the Presidential election in 1948, Groucho quipped “The only way a Republican will ever get into the White House is to marry Margaret Truman.”

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