Open thread 10/10/2024
I’m not too keen on this dancer in general because I think she lacks freedom in her upper body. But what a jump! It’s as though she has springs in her legs:
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
I’m not too keen on this dancer in general because I think she lacks freedom in her upper body. But what a jump! It’s as though she has springs in her legs:
A Twofer…
One:
The science behind why people think they’re right when they’re so, so wrong
Here’s the actual study – The illusion of information adequacy
Two:
Conservatives Reveal Plan To Awaken Sleeping Giant Voter Demographic That Could Decide White House, Senate
This is how it is done.
There are 31 operational rescue aircraft and hundreds of rescuers engaged in more than 125 active missions in 26 Florida counties, in addition to over 6,500 soldiers deployed throughout the state, according to DeSantis.
Now, why couldn’t Gov of NC do this?
Now, why couldn’t FEMA do this?
And DeSantis had this too: Power has been restored to 635,000 residents since the hurricane made landfall, the governor said, although there are still 3.1 million people without power. Hillsborough, Hardee, Manatee, Pinellas and Sarasota Counties are the areas with the most power outages.
“There are 50,000 plus linemen that have been pre-staged. A lot of what they’ll do this morning is likely assess the damage and then begin restoration operations very quickly,” DeSantis said.
Report from Jax…1.5″ of rain over 24 hours, max wind by my backyard weather station was 15mph. Helene we had 6″ and 70mph gusts and out of power for 20 hours. Daughter reports (2 miles north of Magic Kingdom), no power outage and trees still standing with minimal street flooding. There are numerous outages around her though in Orlando.
Hope sdferr is doing OK. Storm surge south of Tampa like a repeat of Ian. Weird part of Milton was the huge tornadoes spawned near Palm Beach with much damage. I’m sure those people being south and east never thought they’d be in the line of fire.
No worries about surge here as in the event what surge we got was about equal to Helene or slightly less even, only to the sidewalk (around 5.5′ above normal if I had to guess — Ian was 4′ higher and up in the house, totalling all the cars in the parking lot). Lost power for mere seconds, which immediately returned; internet service interrupted for around an hour and a half. No tree-fall of note within the community, as Ian had cleared all that business a couple of yrs back. So, all in all, not too bad I’d say.
One simple thing of note, by the by: no one knows Socrates, though everyone thinks they do.
Physicsguy and sdferr: thanks for reporting in. Relieved (a) that you’re able to connect and (b) that it wasn’t as bad as feared. May it stay that way.
My Asheville cousin and his wife are looking at spending the winter in CT.
Just heard from Mike (MWP) that Milton spawned the largest outbreak of tornadoes in FL history, mainly south and east of I4 clear over to the east coast. Wellington,FL, west of Palm Beach, of all places, devastated by a huge tornado.
David Horowitz sends Power Line a “column”:
David Horowitz: Political war
The tornadoes in the trailing outer bands of the hurricane are not very surprising. That happened here; although Helene went well to the west of Raleigh/Durham, there were tornadoes in our vicinity and an EF3 in Rocky Mount, fifty miles east of here.
Thank you to all who have reported in on the hurricane–your information is so helpful.
For Neo: I have a question–what is the difference between her jumps and Barishnikov’s leaps?
Second question with a smile: do you think she has studied with the same teacher as Baryshnikov?
Third: would you please post a video of a dancer, who has the upper body fluidity you are referring to?
Thank you.
An offer of a dancer with superior upper body fluidity, upon order (2:42): https://youtu.be/_J5056Nx1N8
1. Very glad to hear that Fla posters are OK. Hang in there – and please consider rebuilding in an area less prone to regular storms… I am one of those who agrees that Federal insurance guarantees in flood/tornado alleys are a terrible mistake..
2. Regarding the dancer: What’s the deal with those upper-arm doilies?
I have not seen a version of those that looked good, IMNSHO.
They are a distraction.
After the recent Iranían barrage of ~180-200 ballistic missiles into Israel, I’m waiting for the Israeli shoe to drop. Everyone knows it”s coming.
But when?
Are the Israelis getting their ducks in a row? Are they still debating? Are they in negotiations with the US?
Or — the possibility I find intriguing — are they timing their response, at least in part, to the US presidential election?
Trump just came out forthrightly recommending that Israel take out Iran’s nuclear weapon sites now.
These are deep waters.
Anne:
Baryshnikov is a man, and men have stronger glute and thigh muscles and a different hip structure which mean their jumps are generally higher and more explosive. They also do different choreography and tend to feature more dramatic and complex jumps.
Baryshnikov is Latvian and she is Latvian, so they may have had similar training but I very much doubt the same teachers. He is in his mid-70s and she is very young.
As for others with fluid upper bodies, I’ve featured many dancers on this blog who have that characteristic. Do a search for Fracci or Plisetskaya or Verdy or Farrell, to take some examples. I would also say that any Russian dancer prior to 1980 would have that characteristic.
Give this a whirl:
It would be a welcome event should Israel take out Iranian nuclear weapons production in some measure, but without very significant external aid, either from the United States (currently governed by an enemy to Israel) or from near neighbors to Iran who might provide transit refueling bases, but which those nations are unlikely to do without ironclad US guarantees of protection against Iranian reprisal attacks, Israel, I think, won’t be now, or simply isn’t now capable of a significant air attack on any Iranian nuclear weapons development site worth the candle. Perhaps we’ll be surprised along with the Iranians when an attack of some other sort occurs, like an “inside” aided ground action, an infiltration sort of thing. But barring surprise of that sort, a conventional air raid of the type against Iraq or Syria just doesn’t seem to be in the cards, unless the US were to stand to in a big way, or the Arab states realize they must take courage and unify with Israel for their own good.
So, I think it’s going to be an attack of another sort altogether, perhaps against the Iranian leadership, perhaps some other aspect of Iranian power, say missile production or missile battery installations or some other such thing. It’s a damnable shame though, to be sure.
Glad to hear you Floridians are safe.
@ sdferr
I agree that Israel may not have the capability to take out Iranian nuclear weapons production. Have read in the past, of Netanyahu saying that the US has that capability and that they should move soon.
Read recently that Israel will probably not touch Iran’s nuclear production or their energy (oil fields).
Iran Update, October 9, 2024
Meanwhile, Russia has probably already helped Iran with making nuclear bombs, and even sold military equipment to the Houthis.
Like Harris & Biden – Iran & Russia are now ‘joined at the hip‘…
From the link I see what you mean neo about “upper body fluidity”. Does there tend to be a tradeoff between “fluidity” and the athleticism required for stronger jumps? I looked up Godunova’s age, she is 33 but she looks older to me.
Tampa got lucky again. Milton turned east before reaching Tampa. They’ve got wind damage and rain flooding but little storm surge.
Our place in Ft Myers, about a mile from the inland waterway and some distance from the creeks, is dry. I don’t have info for what the final storm surge was at Ft Myers Beach but the camera at Margaritaville stopped working at about 4′ of water.
For reference, Ian brought a 16′ surge across FMB
I don’t believe Israel can take out Iranian nuclear weapon sites entirely — at least not without going nuclear themselves — but they can degrade the Iranian nuclear program by five or six years anyway, which is worth it.
I’ve read stories that Israel wanted to take out those sites during Obama’s administration, but they were warned that the US would send its Air Force to stop such an attack.
However, if Israel launched that attack in the next month — while Joe Biden is the lamest duck ever and the barely competent Harris is trying win a difficult election — I doubt that Biden, Harris & Cabal would dare to attack Israeli forces given October 7 and the current circumstances.
Which is why I ponder the nature and timing of Israel’s expected counterattack against Iran.
FOAF:
A dancer can definitely have both. That was more common up to about 1980. Plisetskaya definitely had both, for example. Nowadays, however, upper body is indeed sacrificed to even greater athletic demands. But there is no inherent barrier between the two.
Israel, I believe, has not got the equipment to do the job that — in the timely sense — needs doing. Not the long range strategic bombers, not the sufficient number of air to air fuel tankers, not the sufficient number of otherwise needful combat components for a sustained (non-one-off) bombing campaign to amply degrade the dispersed Iranian nuclear weapons program. Would it weren’t so. But unless Israel has a well concealed strategic bomber fleet, with an equally well concealed tanker fleet, their margins of success in even only a one of a kind attack on a single buried Iranian nuclear centrifuge site aren’t good enough to warrant the attempt.
Steal an airbase somewhere? Um, maybe, but where? How? It just doesn’t seem a practical thing, and surely not if it’s a base that needs holding for a week or weeks to get the job done.
If the US would help freely, with tanking, with air-defense suppression, it’s conceivable Israel’s air fleet would be sufficient. If the Sauds or the UAE would offer a base for use for a month, ok, that might work. But without these? It’s hard to imagine the tools are at hand.
Maybe Israel’s Pager Division is already thinking outside the box.
Like these people in WW2.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Operations_Executive
Their story was told in 2014 in a blockbuster historical book, “Churchill’s Secret Warriors”; it goes by the name “Churchill’s Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare” in the US.
I thought there was a lot of movie potential in the book when I read it last month.
So did other people!
However, I was thinking more of a year or two mini-series, there is THAT much to cover!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_of_Ungentlemanly_Warfare
Outside the box is exactly the ticket. Unimagined, unknown, unprepared for, undefended, unexpected, what’s not to like? Might take time though, right? Or maybe, just maybe, that “time” has already been invested and stored up waiting to be released in a whip-snap of execution. All the better.
AesopFan–I’m going to read the book and watch the movie! Thanks.
Re: “The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare” — the movie
AesopFan:
I’ll watch anything Ritchie and more than once, except the Kabalistic “Revolver” which Guy Ritchie made under the influence of Madonna.
MUGW was good, but not great. I supposed it had a relationship to real history, but not as much as I’m now discovering. Also to Ian Fleming, the author of the James Bond books:
____________________________________
….Ian Fleming, who had been part of Gubbins’ inner circle during this time, would use Operation Postmaster [launched indirectly by Churchill] as the inspirational basis for his James Bond novels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ministry_of_Ungentlemanly_Warfare
Is Iran starting to ‘Crack’?
Iran Update, October 10, 2024
Time to burn it all down?
When Iran is finally free – and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different.
–Benjamin Netanyahu
______________________
Whatever Israel has in mind, it will be big, a game-changer.
Thank you Neo–I learned to see more clearly!
There are some Democrats open to changing their minds.
Not enough to outweigh the millions who aren’t, but it’s a start.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/10/media/progressive-journalist-unleashes-on-liberal-intolerance-that-drove-her-away-from-dem-party/
The sidebar lists two similar stories as of this moment, and of course those link to more.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/democratic-operative-who-ditched-party-after-dnc-blasts-hypocrisy-i-dont-recognize-party-anymore
https://www.foxnews.com/media/former-california-democrat-turns-republican-kamala-harris-did-nothing-change-schools-california
UPDATE on ‘Lieutenant Dan‘:
Tale of Two ‘Lieutenant Dans‘ – one challenges God, the other follows God. One helped Forrest Gump make the Bubba Gump Shrimp Company successful—then invests in “some kind of fruit company” (aka Apple Computers) which made Forrest & himself rich for life, the other was poor as a church mouse. One followed The Rule of Law, the other:
‘Lieutenant Dan’s’ criminal history revealed
Brilliant fact based films like Ungentlemanly Warfare are the stuff dreams are made of. Reality like exploding pagers and walkie-talkies is leaving espionage fiction in the ashtray of history. Why not forget about fictional agents like Bond and Bourne dashing to save the world from disaster and forget about CIA and MI6 officers reclining on their couches dreaming up espionage scenarios to thrill you. Check out what a real MI6 and CIA secret agent does nowadays. Why not browse through TheBurlingtonFiles website and read about Bill Fairclough’s escapades when he was an active MI6 and CIA agent? The website is rather like an espionage museum without an admission fee … and no adverts. You will soon be immersed in a whole new world which you won’t want to exit.
After that experience you may not know who to trust so best read Beyond Enkription, the first novel in The Burlington Files series. It’s a noir fact based spy thriller that may shock you. What is interesting is that this book is apparently mandatory reading in some countries’ intelligence agencies’ induction programs. Why? Maybe because the book is not only realistic but has been heralded by those who should know as “being up there with My Silent War by Kim Philby and No Other Choice by George Blake”. It is an enthralling read as long as you don’t expect fictional agents like Ian Fleming’s incredible 007 to save the world or John le Carré’s couch potato yet illustrious Smiley to send you to sleep with his delicate diction, sophisticated syntax and placid plots!
See https://theburlingtonfiles.org/news_2023_06.07.php and https://theburlingtonfiles.org/news_2022.10.31.php and
https://theburlingtonfiles.org/news_2024.08.31.php.