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More on the hostages — 8 Comments

  1. Wow. I obviously expected that to be emotional. I have a late teens daughter. Maybe better that there’s no transition. I can only imagine what that would be like, and I don’t want to. I am very happy for them.

  2. “A lot of things that were ordered and paid for by Israel, but have not been sent by Biden, are on their way!”

    There’s already been a lot of speculation about what Trump promised Netanyahu when the US envoy (whatsisname) pressured him to agree to the hostage release deal, even though Bibi wasn’t 100% happy with it.

    I would suspect that this was one of the things they discussed.

    “Why did you give the Israelis the bombs, Mr. President?
    “They bought them.”
    https://x.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1883495706922733727

    Still my favorite line so far this year, although Vance is running a close second with his “I don’t really care, Margaret.”
    https://notthebee.com/article/i-dont-really-care-margaret-jd-vance-shut-down-this-hack-cbs-reporter-over-immigration-and-became-an-instant-meme

    Best Vance meme IMO
    https://x.com/dale_gribbs/status/1883603888550670578

  3. I’ve been waiting for J. E. Dyer to finally weigh in on the hostage deal, and she does not disappoint.
    Her analysis does some out-of-the-box thinking about a President who is very much out-of-the-box in his actions.*
    Maybe she’s correct and maybe not, as she admits, but it’s an interesting and plausible conjecture.
    https://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2025/01/27/trump-and-gaza/

    I perceive that a lot of people, though they don’t or can’t articulate what they’re hoping for, still hope their confidence in Netanyahu and Trump wasn’t misplaced. I’m not going to convince anyone on that score here, and won’t try. It is what it is.

    We did get a little nugget on 22 January that I found very informative about what I have imagined Trump’s priority is. For those who think Trump isn’t smart enough to think in terms of a much bigger picture, there’s nothing I can do. Trump is that smart. It’s why he’s a walking – no, he’s a lurching steam calliope of suasion and deterrence. He thinks outside the box most of us are doing our analysis and imagining in. He looks beyond the gratification of smaller, nearer goals for his most important statements of intent, and leaves clues as to what his real goals are in what he says consistently, over and over again, and makes foundational commitments to. Foreign actors, other than the Western Left in Europe, see that very clearly.

    So I’ve been expecting him to invoke the Abraham Accords in relation to the war in Gaza, because that’s his foundational commitment for U.S. policy in the Middle East. Most observers think the Gaza situation, with its ancillary elements in Judea and Samaria and Lebanon, and the evanescing fortunes of Iran in Syria, is a whole separate dynamic from the Abraham Accords. But there’s nothing compelling us to see it that way, and Trump doesn’t. He didn’t push with Mohammed bin Zayed and Benjamin Netanyahu for the Accords because he likes photo ops. He ushered in the Accords in order to create a geopolitical nexus for gravitational movement in the Middle East – a nexus that’s not Iran under it radical regime.

    But I perceive Trump to be taking a different long view. What I want to accomplish through military destruction of Hamas, Trump wants to prove the Abraham Accords can get done. This kind of problem is what he formed the pact for.

    Trump is looking beyond the current situation to the one that will eventually blow up if it isn’t dealt with; i.e., what is to be done with Gaza and the larger Palestinian Arab situation. That’s the problem to be solved, not because it’s a legitimate grievance, but because, as unresolved, it’s a perpetual pretext for radicalism dressed up in Western tropes, as a cover for Jew-hatred, spite, and a war against Israel.

    As regards particulars, it’s evident that the irresponsible push for peremptory declaration of a Palestinian state has to be taken off the table. Rather than ostensibly resisting a subterfuge the U.S. can’t acknowledge being part of (Biden’s and Obama’s pretense), or actually resisting it from outside of it, Trump’s move here appears to be grabbing hold of the process and preparing to lurch a steam calliope, tooting and whistling in a different direction, down the street.

    RTWT to follow the argument behind the dots.

    *Trump does NOT color between the lines; this was linked by someone else in re the Colombia Airplane Affaire, but definitely applies to more than one Trump action these days.
    https://x.com/cynicalpublius/status/1883653586032238739

  4. “…favorite line…”

    Almost as good as Bret Baier’s, “No, I actually don’t” rejoinder to Madame Word Salad’s “Oh come on, you know what I’m talking about”…during that most entertaining interview…
    – – – – – – – –
    WRT Dyer’s analysis, it’s interesting certainly; but for all her hardheaded sense of reality, she doesn’t seem to realize that there’s no there there.
    That is, there’s no way that the Palestinians can agree to the Abraham Accords…UNLESS such “agreement” is merely another elaborate subterfuge along the lines of Oslo.

  5. The pressure on Netanyahu to do “whatever it takes” to get the hostages released demonstrates the leverage Hamas gains from the hostages. As long as they are being held, Hamas has a huge bargaining chip; when the last one is released, the pressure on Netanyahu diminishes dramatically and his ability to put more pressure on Hamas increases.

    Sounds to me like an obvious reason for Hamas to refuse to return them. Cruelly wicked.

  6. https://thedailyscroll.substack.com/p/jan-27-king-trump-swats-impudent

    Pair up this Jan. 27 post at the Scroll with AesopFan’s Dyer post above and see whether heretofore obscure suggestions of strategic direction begin to emerge in a coherent embodiment. Or at the least, in a better, more hopeful direction than any setting conveyed in the media writ large.

    Lacking at this point (so far anyhow) is any indication that the State dept’s cozy relations with the “Lebanese” authorities, blanketing that “State” with US funds will be extinguished — but then, the boss is very busy and may simply have not gotten around to it yet, so adjustments may yet be coming. I hope so.

  7. As a blog article I read pointed out its a raw deal, hostages taken then a hard deal having to pay the ransom. Will they ever all get released, and will some be murdered who are alive this minute?

  8. I know quelle surprised, the successor to the deuxieme bureau,* plays both sides,

    *became acquainted with them, with agents of innocence that very curious first novel by david ignatius where he related the ames-salameh affair, the spy and the terrorist aide to arafat, he gave out a whole bunch of details re the palestinian ingress in beirut that provoked the civil war, the iceberg of social relations that would manifest in the next decade,

    but there were some interesting details, that you don’t notice the first time around, he referenced the old man who was clearly haj amin, he seems to look down on the israeli effort, the wrath of god operation,

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