Hostage deal announced
The main elements of a hostage deal seem to be in place. You can read about them here, but they’re essentially what I wrote about yesterday in this post. A few details remain to be ironed out, and Netanyahu’s cabinet has to approve.
I see this deal as a sort of iceberg, with the part we can see being the least of it. I’ve read a great deal of commentary about it already, and most is either merely descriptive or strongly negative. The negative opinions can be summarized as “Trump betrayed Israel.” But if that’s the case, it would represent a 180-degree shift from his previous position.
Is that possible? Yes; we don’t need a reminder that Trump is a loose cannon. Is it likely? I don’t think so. It’s more likely that Netanyahu has always known a deal is inevitable and necessary and he trusts Trump more than he ever trusted Biden – and Hamas fears Trump more than they ever feared Biden.
What did Trump promise Netanyahu in return? Help with Iran? Gloves off with Hamas after the hostage pressure is eliminated? Unequivocal support in places like the UN? I don’t know, but I hope it was something and it makes sense that it was something. It also makes sense that it’s a something we’re not going to hear about until it bears fruit in action.
How many hostages are alive? My guess is thirty or forty.
…if the hostages are even still alive. Furthermore, if the exchange is in anyway unequal, as in an equal number of living hostages to terrorists, then it is a bad deal.
There was never any chance that it would be equal.
The government of Israel is not unaware that there will be more dead Israelis by agreeing to another fake ceasefire with Hamas. They know this, and are taking the deal anyway (apparently), either because they’re getting something better out of it than dead Israelis or avoiding something worse, and we are never going to find out, I think, what that thing is or why Israel is being subjected to the possibility of it at American hands.
I have to assume that Israel is not governed by idiots, traitors or antisemites and that they simply know something that’s not making it into the news.
Yeah, I’ve already seen more than enough of these talks. This is Israel’s choice – they screwed up when they decided to negotiate with terrorists—whenever that mistake was first made. Mine would be kill all Gazans that remain there after giving them a chance to leave for Lebanon – and reclaim Gaza as a war prize.
Israel needs to start taking buffers – like the biggest country on earth does and claims to need, i.e., Russia, so they should also claim everything south of the Awali River. Then…tell the West Bank Muslims to accept Israel before all the Nations at the UN—bend the knee or head for Lebanon.
I hope so. Anyway, I suspect Israel has more on its mind than Gaza & the West Bank…so they need to do what is best for them.
Saw something interesting at Power Line: “The Unbeatable Hamas Hydra?“:
To which John Hinderaker replies:
Great point – these animals are teaching their children to hate Israel from birth…hold them up in cheering mobs with that child holding and/or firing an AK-47. Any male child above 14-15 would’ve already been wanting to be in Hamas.
This is a direct result of not clearing out the Oslo quislings at the start of the war.
Bibi let them continue and the military has been dithering ever since.
The incredible morale demonstrated by the reservists has been squandered… many low to mid level field commanders are vocally frustrated with higher-ups who, after decades of Oslo indoctrination, cannot bring themselves to take and hold territory in Gaza.
The pressure for a hostage deal came from the same clueless, self-absorbed elitist segment of society as these Oslo losers. A coalition of fantasist flower children and hard-core, cynical Leftists using the issue to stymie the center-left government.
I’m guessing the hidden part is what Isreal is allowed to do when Hamas inevitably breaks the cease fire. It won’t be Biden handcuffing him, it will be Trump’s call instead.
Probably so
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1xfntrpkl#autoplay
That bibi was able to do as much in this time with the opposition of gallant and co, with the un the foreign office our own foggy bottom
Consider if they are happy
https://www.ynetnews.com/category/3083
Should we be
Sounds not nearly as bad as the shalit deal but we know what that led to october 7th
Niketas:
Agreed.
So Israeli media are reporting that Trump’s Mideast envoy made a deal with Hamas in Qatar, flew to Israel, forced Netanyahu to meet with him on the Sabboth against his wishes, and then forced Netanyahu to accept a deal that he had been rejecting for months.
I guess when Trump said “There will be hell to pay…” if there’s no hostage deal before his inauguration he was referring to Israel and not Hamas as we all assumed.
I wonder how many people cheering on this deal because they heard it from Trump first would be screaming bloody murder if they heard this very same deal from Biden or Blinken first. I’m betting quite a few.
Sigh. I expected Trump to sell out Ukraine. I didn’t see this sellout coming.
mkent, that does not sound like Trump. More like Biden.
Netanyahu is done, will be out of power shortly.
Hamas will come back, and it will have to be done again. When, no one knows, but it will happen. At least for now, Iran has been slowed, but not stopped.
According to Megyn Kelly, 33 hostages will be released in the first round.
Only 23 will be alive.
–Megyn Kelly, “Israel and Hamas Reach Ceasefire Deal to Release Hostages as Trump About to Take Office, with VDH”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hgPUNkHirw
VDH doesn’t think it’s a good deal.
It’s been said you can win a war or you can end a war but they’re not necessarily the same.
I suppose it could be said that if the Allies had won WW I, there would have been no WW II. WW I was ended, instead.
Problem for Israel is that, outside your border or any perimeter is…outside. Move the border further out and…outside it is…outside.
When your enemy is a non-state actor with at least passive support from some of the folks outside your border, your problem isn’t solved. Your war is not won.
I suspect that Hamas’ efforts to reconstitute itself offers more opportunities for Israeli intel. That would be handy.
One issue is what, if any, restrictions or expectations are imposed on Israel when Hamas or some other party shoots at them. Generally, Israel shooting back is “breaking the ceasefire”.
For the immediate future, anyway, a number–hopefully a substantial number–of people will recall the October 7 atrocity and not accuse Israel of “overreation” when shooting back. And I hope what they do is less “surgical” than in the past.
Israel’s enemies have, as their most potent ammunition, dead Palestinian civilians. That’s why Hamas and other Muslim groups set up among civilians.
Perhaps the currency value of such ammunition is temporarily reduced in memory of Oct 7. As in “whatever it takes”. I hope so.
I would hope Trump’s plan is to go after the source of terrorist funding. It has been reported Iran’s economy is in tatters so applying maximum pressure on Iran might be the best strategy to neuter Hamas and Hezbollah.
Inflation in Iran is reported to be 40% and unemployment is over 30%.
If the CIA working to topple Iran’s mullahs? We don’t seem to have any problem using US funds through NGO’s to topple governments in Hungary and Slovakia.
It’s sad that Israel is giving freedom to so many Hamas terrorists as part of the deal.
I’m not sure it makes sense to blame all this on Trump, who is not even President yet. Blaming Trump seems to entail that we’d expect Trump’s representative to try to derail what Biden’s team is trying to set up, which would be completely inappropriate–might be good for Israel but it would be very bad for America, to have this weird grey area when there’s “two” Presidents.
Everybody has a calendar and knows when January 20 is; both Hamas and Israel know that. Fundamentally it’s up to Israel to decide if they go on fighting and risk whatever it is from America in consequence or do they get more October 7s later. All my adult life they have gone the “more October 7s” route, for reasons I have never understood.
But I do know that terrorism rarely ends because the terrorists are exterminated, though no on the Right likes to think about this. Either they are allowed to win something, as in Ireland and then Northern Ireland, or they are allowed to fade away like with ETA in Spain. I don’t know what Israel’s government knows about how likely it is Israel could eliminate Hamas.
Mostly haaretz who are terrible relators of fact
One assumes that rubio and waltz and ratcliffe will put pressure on hamas
The difference between an administration that is pro hamas and those who are not
The good friday accords brokered by clinton are the other type of deal
Most of the top figures in the provos got away scot free including gerry adams who gave the orders the keefe book ‘say nothing’ is instructive although it leans heavily of the victim status of catholics in northern ireland as if that excused anything
Trump has been elected, quite strongly. Bibi is questionable. There is huge internal Israeli pressure to get the hostages back, as well as pressure to kill all Hamas leaders.
Iran is close to having a nuke, which is an existential threat to Israel, unlike Hamas.
It’s still not clear to me how Gaza will be governed, neither now, during the ceasefire, nor the Israeli plan for after Hamas breaks the peace.
@miguel:Most of the top figures in the provos got away scot free including gerry adams
They got way more than “getting away scot free”. They were included in the government and have shared in running Northern Ireland ever since.
I do not get why the US should give a sh*t about Gazans or Palestinians. Just because Tlaib represents Islamists in her district ? I say, Hell NO…Just do the right thing. Kill the sadists, the butchers, the rapists of pre-teen girls. Let us remember Gaza was the last refuge of Muslims that tried to murder both resident and immigrant Jews in the British protectorate then called Palestine by the Brits, failed and fled.
Our Leftists are Jew and Israel haters; they despise Israel’s success.
And anti-semitism is taking the Western world by storm. That includes the Democratic Party faithful, led by Dopey Joe Biden the corruptocrat.
The good news is JD Vance will be our vice-president in 5 days. I fully expect him to be elected POTUS after Trump’s 4-year term, for his own term of 8 years.
Read Vance’s book, Hillbilly Elegy.
Che is calling in from Bolivia and the Shining Path from Peru.
Iran is close to having a nuke, which is an existential threat to Israel, unlike Hamas.
Tom Grey:
That’s the ball on which I am keeping an eye.
Weak American leaders…Geez. Trump praises Israel-Hamas hostage deal that his envoy pushed Netanyahu to accept…Ditto on the Geez.
Well…I’m keeping a close ‘Tally’ on Trump’s performance this time around, but will wait a little longer before adding this one to his Weak column. Yes, he isn’t sworn in as President yet, but he sent his “Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff” to get this “Israel-Hamas hostage deal”.
A look thru the pics in Gaza clearly shows who won this possible last battle in the 7 October War. Gazans look as if they won the War. Israel has been weakening for some time now—Hamas was slowly wearing them down. Too much pussyfooting around by Israel, IMHO…
Anyway, as neo mentioned – we are probably only seeing the tip of the ‘iceberg’ plus we need to consider ‘What did Trump promise Netanyahu in return? Help with Iran?’ Trump did say ‘that Israel should attack Iran’s nuclear facilities’ – so maybe he promised some help to Israel on that.
Whether good or bad, this was the only deal on the table. Starting over wasn’t an option. I think Trump wants no distractions from his economic agenda.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/top-qatari-official-says-trump-and-his-envoy-pushed-hamas
I don’t pretend to understand this. There are lots of moving parts. Trump said “if the hostages aren’t released by my swearing-in there will be hell to pay.” Tonight Sean Hannity changed it to “if hostages aren’t released” (no the), moving the goalposts.
I thank God that Trump was elected, but we aren’t out of the woods yet. Pray for the USA, and for the peace of Jerusalem.
Everyone who comments on this has a horse in the game, as do I; however, let me explain why EVERY agreement to a ceasefire in exchange for hostages held by a terrorist organization for thousands of terrorists being released into the wild.
First response:
“I’m guessing the hidden part is what Isreal is allowed to do when Hamas inevitably breaks the cease fire. It won’t be Biden handcuffing him, it will be Trump’s call instead.”
ambisinistral stated.
I think that is a truth, however; trump said no gloves at all, it’s not our war and Israel may respond as the wish, as long as they get the hostages. Hegseth basically said the same yesterday.
Now, why I say the Kvetching about how Israel is giving up whatever the number is, 1300? terrorists in exchange for 33 or however for Israeli living and valuable hostages who deserve respite, in exchange for a ceasefire that ALSO offers a respite to the Israeli people who need a turn of leave from constant conflict for a year and a half I have this to say.
Israel is getting some of their very human and valuable citizens who deserve succor after the misery that had been enforced on them over the last year and a half, and hamas no longer has THOSE, though they obviously have more. And Hamas is getting their however many terrorists released into Gaza. If the second phase hits then “all” of the hostages will return to Israel, and Hamas will get however many more than a thousand terrorists into their realm of gaza.
The only thing that is important is the people of value, and that’s the Israeli’s, not the terrorists.
Details.
The hostages are suffering and in a just world would have been released instantly by the western world in support of israel in the destruction of Hamas, but that hasn’t been the world since before Jimmy Carter, but now THIS is the path for their liberation.
At the SAME TIME! The however many more than a thousand terrorists being released by Israel are easily identifiable, every indication of their existence is stored by Israeli intelligence. Those effers will be tracked as they are welcomed like hero’s into gaza, they will be fetted by hamas or hamas wannabe’s (no difference just different rank) and Israel will collect all of that data showing their movements, their interactions and their support from a terrorist organization. So Israel, while surrendering “control” of terrorists that were held in prison (pretty posh by ANY standard let alone arab standards) paid for by the victims of these pieces of crap, are now INTEL ASSETS. They are bugs and moles without their knowledge. Hamas will maintain the Ceasefire, meaning they will violate it constantly, but only a little bit, until Israel gets as many of their people back as they can, and Hamas will be emboldened making open movements, interacting with the released terrorists, granting even MORE intel to IDF. When Hamas decides to violate the ceasefire short, which they always do, while still holding 30% of the current count of hostages, The “CeaseFire” will be outright broken after about 50 or 60% of hostages are released, Hamas will blame israel for violating the ceasefire for responding to several rocket attacks or outright statements by Hamas.
It will be about a 2 month sequence I reckon, I bet by April, May at the ABSOLUTE LATEST, Hamas will feel emboldened thinking that Israel wouldn’t dare offend the UN or the US, not knowing that under a Real Republican, a Real President, the UN don’t mean Jack, and will launch rockets, and try to do a grey man attack (sneaking people into israel or activating sleepers) in terrorism, which cut’s israel free, to kill them all over again.
Additional bonus! Between Now, and later when Hamas breaks the ceasefire, Israel no longer has to provide room and board and legal representation for terrorists who’s only goal is to call their mom and declare their joy of killing jews. They get to just outright kill them in a war zone. Israel if I recall correctly doesn’t have a death penalty. War has no such restrictions. Remember who you release, track them target them and destroy everyone around them when the UN’s “partner in peace” violates it, as they ALWAYS do.
Meanwhile, families will be reunited, or have closure, there will be a moment of calm in preparation for what is inevitably coming, and re-arm…Prepare…and when the time comes unleash the wrath that Hamas deserves without the arm of a senile old man managed by anti-semites and scared of the UN.
It’s not a matter of Trump Allowing, It’s that Trump, like Americans, believes that it’s not at all our job to hold back an ally, we should punish an enemy. And to defeat the terror of the mideast, Israelis are The Marines marching on that beachhead, and they are damn good at it.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/israels-netanyahu-accuses-hamas-trying-back-out-cease-fire-deal
Cease-fire vote delayed. Stay tuned.
this is a problem negotiating with these sea people,
https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/15/hamas-leader-october-7-attack-ceasefire-negotiations/
Are there Any Palestinians left in Israeli jails?