And we should listen to Fauci’s prognostications why?
I think at this point, his guess is as good as ours.
But I also think these recent remarks Fauci made yesterday are interesting (his remarks in italics, and then my responses):
—Clearly we are not in total control right now.
When on earth are we ever “in total control” – except maybe for the very few diseases that have been eradicated from the face of the earth, such as smallpox? Even a disease like measles, dangerous when I was young but now very controllable with the vaccine, is not totally under control. Is total control any sort of reasonable standard for a relatively new infectious disease? Of course not. So don’t talk that way.
—What was thought to be unimaginable turns out to be the reality we’re facing right now,” Fauci said, adding that “outbreaks happen, and you have to deal with them in a very aggressive, proactive way.”
Again – what on earth is he talking about? “Unimaginable”? The only thing “unimaginable” is the hits the economy has taken and continues to take in the face of a disease that seems to be nowhere near as bad as the models originally imagined, featuring millions and millions dead. And if by “unimaginable” Fauci means that cases have gone up as people mingle more and there is also more testing, then he lacks the imagination to be anywhere near the position he holds. Because most of the rest of us always imagined this would be the case. What’s more, I’d like to know exactly and precisely what he means by dealing with outbreaks “in a very aggressive, proactive way” (I didn’t wade through the text of his testimony, so maybe he went into that in great detail, although I tend to doubt it).
—The United States may soon record as many as 100,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day if the current trajectory of the outbreak is not changed, Fauci warned.
The article doesn’t make clear whether that’s a direct quote, but it’s the gist of something Fauci said. I wonder why we should credit his predictions, which as far as I know have never been correct. Also, most of the new cases seem to be in the young, who have a much lower rate of complications and death than the elderly.
But let’s just say he’s correct. In connection with that, I think it’s instructive to look at the H1N1 pandemic, which happened from 2009 to 2010 and caused a bit of fuss, quite a few deaths, but no particular disruption to the US.
The CDC has an information site on H1N1, and this is what it has to say [emphasis added]:
Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
Let that sink in. There was apparently a first wave and a second wave, even without things being shut down. During a single year there were probably over 60 million cases of H1N1 in the United States, perhaps even as many as 89 million. That means, according to my math, that there was an average of over 164,000 cases per day during that year. Of course, since the number of cases was not stable over the year, at some points the cases may have been something close to a million per day and at other times less than 100,000 per day, but the average was over 50% higher than Fauci’s estimate for COVID that has everyone in an uproar.
We didn’t learn about these H1N1 numbers in real time because we were not mass-testing everyone who felt ill. Now, one might argue that H1N1 was nowhere near as bad as COVID because the death rate was so much lower. And indeed, it was lower (although as I said, the testing situation was so different that it’s hard to directly compare). However, contemplate this little-known fact about H1N1, from the same CDC site:
Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.
That is a terrible statistic. It means that of the 12,469 estimated deaths from H1N1, close to 10,000 were people under 65. That’s a really dreadful pattern.
Now, of course I value the lives of those over 65 too, for obvious (and personal!) reasons. But that means that those of us who are of a certain age need to take precautions, as indicated, rather than shut the country down. I’ve been saying that for ages. Why should the entire economy go down the drain with us?
I’ve found a few sites that say 80% of COVID deaths are in people over 65 (here’s one) – which is the exact opposite of the situation with H1N1 and more like the “regular” flu pattern. I also found this site that gives the latest up-to-date statistics for Sweden, by decade. Sweden, you may recall, is the place that hasn’t put a shutdown in place, so I think it’s a good example of what that situation would be like, although of course Sweden is demographically different from the US.
The total number of COVID deaths the chart lists is 5370 (I’m doing the math quickly, so please correct me if I’m wrong). Of that group, 4,773 were of people over 70 and 3,606 were of people over 80. That means that about 89% of deaths in Sweden were of people 70 and over, and 67% were of people over 80. So if you look at the over-70 stats for Sweden and combine them with the over-65 ones for the US, the situation becomes even more clear – the vast majority of COVID deaths are in the elderly.
I don’t know, and Fauci doesn’t know, how many deaths from COVID we’ll end up having. Also, we don’t know if the figures are inflated because of the “deaths with COVID rather than deaths from COVID” phenomenon. In addition, the case death rates (that’s the rate at which people who have COVID are dying) seem to be falling even among the severely ill, which may be a function of better treatment plus a weaker virus or some combination of the two.
So taking all of that into consideration, I can’t estimate how many younger people will end up dying from COVID. However, that number is already higher than the number of younger people who died of H1N1 ten years ago. Nevertheless, to me the numbers don’t seem to be so high that they would justify the damage done to the entire country.
What’s more – and this is very odd – unless I’m misunderstanding the way this chart is constructed, at nearly every decade of age the deaths from pneumonia in the US are more numerous than those from COVID. The exceptions are ages 45-54 and 54-64, decades in which COVID deaths slightly edge out pneumonia deaths. The total for COVID up till now, according to the chart, is 112,226. The total for pneumonia in the same time frame is 122,597 (I’m assuming that people who are described as dying from pneumonia were tested for COVID and didn’t have it). Why no hue and cry about pneumonia every year?
“Why no hue and cry about pneumonia every year?”
Because it happens every year. And you’re reading the chart wrong. It’s saying there were only 6,000 some flu deaths, over 100,000 each of COVID and pneumonia deaths, but less than 200,000 COVID, pneumonia, and flu deaths put together?
For perspective, the CDC site lists less than 50,000 deaths from pneumonia for all of 2017
I’d cut Fauci some slack because he’s really fought all the efforts of the press to drive a wedge between him and President Trump and because I recall seeing him on TV discouraging people from protesting because of the risk of spreading COVID-19. I’d be he understands that coronavirus cases are soaring because his fellow “experts” said it was okay to protest, so everybody (especially young people) thought it was okay to do what they wanted without worry about the pandemic. He just can’t bring himself to publicly trash the credibility of the entire health establishment.
Mike
Fauci is on a power trip.
Open up, cases rise, close down, cases slow, open up, cases rise. I will never end. Plus of course cases are rising because we have a lot more testing. And of course there are the very peaceful street fairs going on.
Nuts!!!~
I have a low opinion of epidemiologists. The reason is simple. They use biostatistics. Now, biostatistics is to statistics as astrology is to astronomy. Epidemiologists believe you can determine causality with statistics, they believe confidence intervals are significant and they believe you can extrapolate from the sample population to the entire population. None of this is true.
Fauci needs a steal toedboot in the ass, repeatedly. Then a gag. He’s a poseur, jackass, and an expert with models that mean nothing beyond pumping up his bloated ego. And what else I think is not for polite company.
“Clearly we are not in total control.” That says it all, not in an epidemical sense, but in a political sense. FOAD.
One cause for the spike in hospitalizations is the ramping up of inpatient services. If a person is scheduled for, say, a pacemaker, they will be tested for covid. If the surgery is deemed urgent, the surgery may go ahead even with a positive covid test. That person’s stay in the hospital might be exactly the same length of time they would have been there without covid, but they will still be listed as a covid hospitalization.
MBunge:
What difference does it make if pneumonia happens every year? That should make it worse, not better. By Fauci’s reasoning, we should shut down every year.
Also, I have written at some length about pneumonia in this previous post.
Going now to the chart linked to in today’s post, I think what it actually is doing is NOT adding up pneumonia deaths and influenza deaths and COVID deaths to get that figure you’re referring to. The chart’s relevant column titles are not very well done in term of clarity for the layperson, but here they are: “COVID-19 deaths,” “pneumonia deaths,” “pneumonia and COVID-19 deaths,” “influenza deaths,” “pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 deaths.” (There are other columns, such as “total deaths” presumably from all causes, but they’re not relevant).
You will notice that in each horizontal row, the COVID-19 deaths added to the pneumonia deaths added to the influenza deaths do not equal the figure in the column titled “pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 deaths.” My interpretation of the chart – and the only one that can make sense of the figures, is that this is what the headings mean:
“COVID-19 deaths” are all deaths attributed to COVID-19 alone
“pneumonia deaths” are all deaths attributed to pneumonia alone
“pneumonia and COVID-19 deaths” are all deaths attributed to BOTH causes (I have read that death certificates are allowed to list more than one cause of death, and the double cause of death can sometimes represent uncertainty as to which thing caused the death of the patient.)
“influenza deaths” are all deaths attributed to influenza alone.
“pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 deaths” are probably deaths in which it is unknown, or listed as unknown, which of these three possible causes may have been the cause of death. This may be because the person was never tested and the person writing the death certificate is just going by symptoms, or it could mean that the patient was tested and found positive for all of them, so it is impossible to know for certain which caused death since the symptoms of all three are similar.
That’s the only way the figures make any kind of sense. It also shows you how the situation really depends on how accurate the attribution of cause of death is, and that there are a lot of unknowns in that regard.
As days go by more and more people just automatically do not believe of listen to this thing with a career of close contact with the contagions of the WHO and the PRC. He’s as poz as it gets.
I wonder what this career bureaucrat’s net worth is.
Ah, but there is a financial consideration. More COVID19 deaths more sugar from Uncle Sam. Follow the money trail. Send the infected to nursing homes to kill the vulnerable, more greenbacks from Uncle Sam. Follow the money.
If anyone has a rail, a little bit of tar, and some feathers I can suggest a use for them.
We have been badly served.
Trump will take the heat; but, I said all along that he was caught in a bad situation once he started listening to the likes of Fauci. There was no way he cold dump him.
I hear that Gruesome Newsom has dictated no beach fun in California for 4th of July weekend; none at all. I was at Newport Beach this AM communing with fish, and as I drove out of the tourist area I noticed many clusters of mostly unmasked people. Mostly young people. So, the only ones who follow the edicts are the ones who have the sense to be careful anyway. Kind of like edicts about gun control.
Masks? Stupid, accomplishing nothing beyond social control. Establishing a state of fear? One ring to bind them all. Let the hot CW 2.0 begin. I reloaded 500 8M, 250 38 Spl, and 500 357 Mag this week, plus bought 200 380 ACP. Ready to go hot. Not armed, good luck. These days my Colt government 380 ACP is a constant companion. It’s lite, slim, and easy to carry. And no, I don’t need a carry permit beyond the 2nd.
Why is Fauci still employed by FedGov at age 79?
Did I miss something about mandatory retirement age loopholes? Are there different rules for different classes of humans? Oh say it ain’t so! Clearly Fauci must belong to some higher caste since he gets to tell everyone how they should now live.
Seriously though… Why hasn’t he been shunted off to a well-deserved retirement years ago? Surely there must be a Wise Latina out there who could do his job just as well.
Yeah, parker, that UT shooting was beyond scary. And I was ready to go hot listening to the Mom with a kid trapped in traffic due to BLM with protesters climbing on her car.
Her 911 call got the response that City Hall had authorized the demonstration so no cops could be sent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=69&v=9sIHk8xAGoA&feature=emb_logo
I hear that Gruesome Newsom has dictated no beach fun in California for 4th of July weekend;
Even though we know bloody well that open air with proper distance is not a problem.
JimNorCal,
We are long passed the point that the “authorities ” will come to the rescue. We, and we alone are responsible for our safety. I also carry a S&W 38 snub nose loaded with fragile loads, no cases to police and no ballistics to worry about. 38 for a one on one, 380 for multiples.
Stay frosty.
Be armed and trained or be helplessly hoping. It is that simple. Duh.
Why is Fauci still employed by FedGov at age 79?
Maybe because, he made His Peace with the Deep State decades ago?
Parker, do you have a source for “masks accomplish nothing”?
I don’t wear my mask to make a statement; or to satisfy a politician. I wear it because my health care professional daughter says it is important. I have also noted for a long time that masks are routinely worn in advanced Asian cultures in which people live in tight quarters. Maybe they are silly; but, I suspect that they have learned a thing or two because they have seen a thing or two. That’s catchy.
Frankly, WHOGAS whether you or anyone else wears a mask? I will wear mine when in proximity to others. I will do it on the chance it provides some self protection, as well out of courtesy.
By the way, the same daughter who is in the Neuro rehab trade tells some frightening stories about the condition of “recovered” people they are treating in her hospital. Ancillary damage doesn’t get a lot of attention in the media.
—The United States may soon record as many as 100,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day if the current trajectory of the outbreak is not changed, Fauci warned.
According to this website, there were approx. 44,000 new cases yesterday (134.6/1M population). It’s going to be some time before we get to 100,000/day, based on whether or not the testing rate continues to be ramped up.
The daily positivity rate yesterday was steady at 6.86%, slightly up from the low of 4.08% 21 days ago.
Deaths continue to decline, and hospitalizations is steady.
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Arizona&show=highlight-only&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=testPositivity-daily-7&data-source=ctp&xaxis=right-4wk#states-normalized
These are all good things. More young people are being tested. The virus may be becoming less virulent, or the people becoming infected are getting a lighter load based on outdoor activity. The death rate isn’t increasing, indicating that vulnerable populations are understanding what they need to do to decrease risk of infection.
Fauci is past his sell-buy date.
That’s not to say that certain areas of the country– counties or cities don’t still have problems. We need to deal with local spikes at the local level. No need for national lockdowns.
I was talking to my elementary school principal about whether or not school will reopen in the fall. Her school is inner-city and she is very worried about her students. They have no family support and distance learning doesn’t work for these children.
The best solution would be to open these type of schools. Student populations where they have parental reinforcement may be able to handle on-line learning, but not these kids.
Oldflyer–Regarding masks I think the following is the best I’ve read on the subject (but my husband and I hate the masks, so there is that):
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/06/what_good_do_the_masks_do_really_comments.html?fbclid=IwAR24AVlsX59WVmi9PY_sNEEOZm4KLHGfxNwVxh9NjN8Jwx5akiURaPaVG54#comments-container
I was over the COVID-19 virus in 3 days (fever-free) and I went to my office where I work alone and because at that time we were told that we can contract it from surfaces I wore an N95 mask. I lasted 20 minutes before I began to feel faint so I took it off. Less than 2 hours later I was throwing things in my briefcase so I could get home before I succumbed to illness. I proceeded to suffer with fever, cough, rash and sweats for 2 weeks following. All because of the mask.
Oldflyer:
Here is an article regarding masks FWIW. Basically there is a lot you have to do for them to work, except as a placebo.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/06/covid19_protection_advice_from_an_md_albeit_a_dentist.html
SharonW quick draw! Hope you and Doug are continuing well on the recovery BTW.
I used to think I was a germaphobe. After this, I guess not. I did a lot of traveling in 2014-2016 to visit my son, a Marine who was serving abroad. I looked into masks at that time because of the flights and based on the information available at that time I determined that it was pointless. If someone wants to wear one, so be it. It’s a free country, right???? So my opinion in the present circumstances is colored by that prior information. It is political. We are being played. I now think of the masks as the “western burka”.
IMO, this is normal. Fauci is doing what all specialists do, concentrating on what he knows, and what most do, overrating his own knowledge. What is wrong is that so many put confidence on it, and don’t adjust for either.
This is an example of why you need strategic direction, above the specialists. Someone has to decide between George Marshall and Ernest King; each of them was very good at what he did (mostly), but had a skewed vision of what mattered. If Marshall had had his way, Japan would have owned the Pacific; if King, Britain and the USSR would have been on their own. (Exaggeration, but not by much.)
And we should listen to Fauci’s prognostications why?
********
Evidence collection.
Covid19 is an order or two magnitudes deadlier than H1N1 flu. Plus, on the frontier of research, some 80% of infections are caused by super-spreaders, believed to be about 20% of the population.
H1N1 flu analogies break down in both respects. And with super-spreaders, identify them and attack their Modes of viral transmission, and a game-changing method of mastering the pandemic can be initiated before an effective vaccine arrives.
Unless viral transmissions are closely related, reasoning by analogy is likely to be rather useless, unless you need to board a public health gravy train.
Cute article OM. So the Dentist disparages the mask because you are breathing germs into your mask? In other words recycling your own germs–for which you apparently have immunity. What does that have to do with spreading virus to other people; or having them spread it to you?
I wonder why my dentist has worn what appears to be a basic mask for decades? I always thought he was pretty intelligent.
As to discomfort SharanW. Your choice if you don’t choose to wear one in a space where it is not required. I understand that it might be uncomfortable. I have used a CPAP for Apnea for decades. I hate it. Miserable in the beginning; and never more than tolerable. A lot of people who need it choose not to use it because…. not worth the trouble. On the other hand Anton Scalia didn’t use his one night.
Again citing daughter, because she is smart and she is in the arena dealing with the problem. Chief of Nursing shared space with her because the Exec suite of the hospital was being remodeled. CON did not choose to wear a mask. She survived her COVID-19 crisis, so far, but it was a very near thing. Apocryphal? Maybe. Daughter has escaped so far; and she masks up anytime she is in contact with anyone. Coincidental? Who knows?
That is a cute take to compare it to the American Burka. Ha. Ha. Regardless, I will go ahead and mask up when exposed; just like I use my CPAP, and wore a parachute, and an O2 mask back in the day. Eighty-fifth birthday within two weeks; I did not get this far by taking unnecessary risks–beyond those required of my professional choice, of course.
T J:
In my post I have not claimed that COVID has not been deadlier than H1N1. I think I make it clear that it has been. So what’s your point? Mine is that it’s not that much deadlier that it justifies the enormous costs of the shutdown, both economic, mental, and physical (such as suicides), and that it also kills a very different population, one that is already elderly.
Another point I’ve made is that the statistics on COVID are much more difficult to ascertain than most people think. I discuss some of that in this previous comment on this thread. And in addition, the case death rate of COVID has become significantly lower now, so a second shutdown makes even less sense.
As for superspreaders, of course attention should be paid to that phenomenon. You wrote that superspreaders are “believed to be about 20% of the population” – and, just to clarify for anyone reading, what I believe you’re trying to say is that superspreaders are believed to be about 10% to 20% of the population of people who have contracted COVID so far.
What is interesting to me is how little we know about this virus and how to combat it at this point. It is a mysterious thing. Why hasn’t it decimated the homeless encampments? They would seem to be very vulnerable – living in close quarters, poor sanitation, sharing various items. I understand that a homeless encampment in LA was tested and they found a high rate of positives, but no sick people. The same has happened here in the prison. A high rate of positives, but few sick people.
Do we know for sure that asymptomatic people can infect others? One case where it was thought that an asymptomatic person infected others, turned out that the “spreader”: was working in spite of feeling bad and covered her symptoms with over the counter meds.
I like to believe that my wearing a mask will help protect others if I’m asymptomatic. I remember the video of the Korean woman who said, “I protect you by wearing a mask and you protect me.” Makes sense if there is such a thing as asymptomatic spread. I managed to score a box of 100 surgical masks back in March. We don’t go out that often so we still have a few left. We also bought well made cloth masks with filter pockets in them. We use paper filters in the pockets. My wife prefers these, I prefer the surgical masks. We have several cloth masks so we can wash them regularly. I also bought a UV wand that we use to sterilize the cloth masks between uses in a single day.
I’m pretty religious about hand sanitizer and hand washing, but apparently the CDC doesn’t think surfaces are big transmitters of infection. Who knows the truth?
I’m not surprised that cases are increasing. People are going out much more and the protests, which are continuing, have exposed a lot of people to being in close quarters for long periods of time. Who are the protestors? Mostly young people. Who is showing up in the new cases? Mostly young people. But of course, the protests are much more important than the normal business of living, so they’re okay. 🙁
I thought the “pause” in a third of our economy would help and hoped that the virus would weaken as summer came along. It hasn’t worked out that way. I see no way forward except to go forward and let those of us who are most vulnerable do our best to protect ourselves until we get a vaccine or herd immunity, whichever comes first. Hard decisions must be made.
Neo replies “So what’s your point?” An analogy from the past is unhelpful unless the characteristics of viral transmission fit well. That’s all.
“Mine is that it’s not that much deadlier that it justifies the enormous costs of the shutdown, both economic, mental, and physical (such as suicides), and that it also kills a very different population, one that is already elderly.” Yes. I don’t disagree.
I’m hearing rumours that the current virus is weaker than it used to be. But perception versus hard evidence? I’ve not seen the latter to suppler it. And the “it’s not much deadlier” argument is much over stressed by our side, too.
At current death rates, we are headed towards 10X the rates of typical flu season, eg, 300K.
So-called lockdown was only a strategic holding measure based upon high consequences of viral transmission and our ignorance of the invisible menace.
Things are different now, and we’re into the yo-yo or ying-yang period of selective application of opening, screenings or sheltering (of the older or vulnerable), and selective and temporary “lockdowns” of social spaces. I expect more of the same until next year or so.
We also have better life-saving medical tools for hospitals (anti-coagulants, not ventilators!) was and newly emergent tools needing rapid deployment: eg, monoclonal antibodies that save ICU cases from 50% death to just 10%, and most hugely important — does any influential leader say it? — increasing hugely increasing Vitamin D! A tragic neglect.
Plus, HCQ+ strategies for earliest diagnosis (new 3700 subjects studied out of Marseille, last week), as well as a prophylactic (several indicative studies).
Of course, risk/rewards are now political tools to be turned into clubs, make the masses suffer! Kill Trump! I know, I know. It’s evil — we agree — but that’s what we have. (And I know you’re trying to stare it down.)
But championing common sense is too rare (Fauci? Too rarely). Yet the science that supports it is being unheard. And killing people needlessly, too.
We need to pool our knowledge, and I can recommend the climate skeptic site http://www.joannenova.com.au. Her published and Ed background is in microbiology, with a certificate in science journalism. Informed, link heavy, well-reasoned (even if one must sometimes read around the foreign Aussie politics).
(JoNova’s conversion from Green alarm was abetted by her husband’s evidence, Dr. David Evans, who headed Australia’s carbon accounting for Kyoto treaty some 16 years ago; search their illuminating interviews by “Topher” on YouTube to understand more. Or else see their six point “Skeptics Handbook” link in the left sidebar at the JoNova website; it still stands out as a solid climate realist intro.)
An entirely novel point is raised by economist Tyler Cowan: is there “lockdown American exceptionalism?” In other words, higher social risk tolerance, as seen in gun owning, opioids, etc? Observing from virus free New Zealand, like I am, this strikes me a penetrating, possibly accurate truth.
Will people here debate this? Tyler explains by excerpting from his new Bloomberg column:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/07/why-american-lockdown-exceptionalism.html
The bolded part: TRUE. I had thought that summer heat and air-con drives people in the Southern latitudes into sharing the virus. Ergo, Arizona, Texas, Florida and California in trouble. Plus the riots and protests only weeks ago (not mentioned by Democrat-Marxist media)!
But again, there exceptions: Georgia…so far. So…complex.
We love our mobility.
Fauci means that the deep state (“we”) are not in total control over society.
It’s simple really, he just let slip his true nature.
LYNN HARGROVE on July 1, 2020 at 6:03 pm said:
Fauci is on a power trip.
Open up, cases rise, close down, cases slow, open up, cases rise. I will never end. Plus of course cases are rising because we have a lot more testing. And of course there are the very peaceful street fairs going on.
Nuts!!!~
* * *
https://babylonbee.com/news/doctors-recommend-locking-down-and-reopening-repeatedly-until-everyone-has-nervous-breakdown
Fauci’s humble man of science schtick is getting extremely tiresome.
Go bake bread in a monastery Tony !
I think at this point his guess is WORSE than ours, as he has a vested interest in continuing panic porn.
TJ and JJ,
Whether or not your mooted points will stand, it is good to see a reasoned approach taken. Yes, there are many open questions, and unfortunately in trying to get to the answers, we cannot trust the numbers, the categorizations, nor the conclusions we are getting from the so-called authorities.
Most of us probably know medical professionals who have privately said how in multifactor deaths, the institutional practice is to list Covid as the cause. We probably have been informed that in the case of younger people the hospitalized are without exception (in their experience) persons with serious comorbidity factors, most especially morbid obesity, and diabetes.
This may be mentioned in news reports or health bulletins, but is it given the emphasis it ought to be given?
Categories we cannot trust, jiggered numbers, and transparently political policy statements and proclamations, and it’s no wonder that people are walking around in a fog of uncertainty.
You would think that the least the health authorities could do is analyze and publish any reliable information they have developed on comparative individual risk. Instead we are left to try and infer such information from hospitalization data and death rates. The emphasis to this point has been that there are only population cohort categories at lesser risk of death or hospitalization, and none that are virtually free of it no matter how narrowed.
But is that true? We know already that among American young people a rough third of them or more are unfit to serve in the military because of various health related conditions. So when people point to some young person as falling ill, it is hard to be impressed by that example as it being a certain instance of a picture of youthful health, being struck down by Covid. In modern America, an America of drugs, obesity, and chronic medical conditions, age implies less about underlying health than it might have in 1966.
Is this then, a partial repeat of the scandal revealed by ” The Myth of Heterosexual Aids”, having been modified to suit and dragged out all over again?
In a polity where public health data is so compromised or shaded or even suppressed by political considerations ( cite Gretchen Whitmer’s refusal to release data) , it is almost impossible to know.
The main disconnect between Americans seems to be fundamental with the point of divergence being the virus’ staying power. Many Americans believe that if people would simply do _X_ then the we could “get rid of this virus” (the exact words I heard from both my own mother and a random stranger this past week). Other Americans, myself included, believe this damned thing has now joined the panoply of ways we can die, and will be with us forever, or at least for the foreseeable future.
This is why we shout past each other on even banal subjects like masks, since we are chasing two different targets to begin with. It’s also why so many people are justifying and ignoring tyranny since they believe it temporary and the payoff worth it. This attitude is bolstered by the fact that something like 40% of the US is able to work from home, so the ephemeral hand of the bountiful market cave-dwellers happily benefit from becomes even more invisible, with people able to smugly lecture while putting countless others at risk (per the cave-dweller’s own logic and risk tolerance) to keep them in their comfortable lifestyle.
We on the right need to have one of those fabled “conversations” about this virus (since the left are enemies not reachable by persuasion) starting with the premise discussed above. Clean slate with all the info we now have. For if those people scared enough to sacrifice principles would better articulate the END game to the PPE shaming/tyranny, socially and economically destructive attitudes and government policies, instead detailing their version of “Mission Accomplished” then perhaps we could at least agree to disagree.
EG: If we can all take off the masks without shame (from otherwise sane people) or fines and imprisonment when a vaccine is ready, then we must discuss the timeframe (so long as to be worse than the virus?), past coronavirus vaccine efficacy (none have ever been developed?), tyrannical implementation schemes (BEFORE you’re so damned scared you don’t care), and goalpost shifting prevention.
Also, I’ve not seen any nationwide big-time randomized anti-body testing regimen, and my cursory internet searching just turned up some city and regional testing from back in April. Wouldn’t that go a LONG way in helping shape personal practice and government policy? It might justify more tyranny to some people, who knows, but would be I think a very high priority.
Anyone have a truly random, significantly sized antibody test at hand to link? If not, is it because we don’t have reliable antibody tests? And wouldn’t THAT be good news if their unreliability was because we already have immunity in one form or another?
The only positive development of this long string of false predictions, weird recomendations and contradictory asessments is that the general public will at last stop foolhardly “believe in science” and trust experts. Science worship in the Western countries became a strange secular religion. Much more scepticism about science and scientists is badly needed for realistic perspective in many fields.
Sam, 100%. Most of my friends seem to be in the “Everybody has to stay in their houses until this virus goes away! And if you don’t, you are a terrible person!” camp. They are all also either retired and well-off, or able to work from home with no disruptions because they have no kids or their kids are old. In vain do I point out that the in-person workers whose livelihoods have been decimated or worse cannot survive such a scheme financially, that we may never have a vaccine, and that everyone’s staying home has a cascade of effects beyond the obvious.
Now that we’ve had some time to digest our experience with Covid-19, we believe we have an understanding of what happened to my husband. He had untreated sleep apnea. It so happened that he did a sleep study in early March before he contracted SarsCoV-2 and we never even saw the results until I followed up after he was home from the hospital. A dropped ball. The study showed that he suffered considerable hypoxia while sleeping. This completely explains why even with a common cold last Thanksgiving and Christmas, he was sick in bed for a week. When one is sick, you lie down. There was no way he could combat that virus (and struggled with any virus) due to the hypoxia. His near death was the result of the hospital sending him home when I tried to have him admitted and then finally admitting him when he was too far gone for the benefit of the knowledge that he was oxygen deficient in a supine position, needed fluids and probably would have been helped by the hydroxychloroquine/zinc/azithromycin. It wasn’t the virus that landed him in ICU but the cytokine storm–his body’s response to the prolonged viral fight.
According to Wikipedia, Fauci has had his job since 1984! A job like his should be term limited to 5 years. The military learned this long ago. He also should have been age limited out of this job long ago. The military learned that long ago too!
I do not understand at all the conversation as to the efficacy of masks.
If they do not work, then why do surgeons and nurses in a hospital operating theater use them?
And why do medical professionals use them in hospitals outside of an operating room?
We really ought to think about having a mandatory retirement age of 70 for those in the public service bureaucracy. It’s a healthier situation for everyone if the old ones must make way for experienced, younger personnel, who tend to look for other opportunities when someone like Fauci (almost 80) becomes embedded in an institution.
And I agree completely that one of the many adverse consequences of this pandemic has been erosion of trust in our public health services.
John Tyler–read the article by the anesthesiologist linked by me and Om. He answers your question. There are very definitive specfications to masks in the medical arena and interesting information regarding people in the surgical theatre without masks.
If you look at the graphs on the Worldometer site, NY has had 7 days where reported cases exceeded 10,000 and this is FL first day of 10,000. And NY outpaces FL in cases over 7,500 and 5,000.
The country took a hit for NY, flattening the curve so that the supplies could be built up. Remember when Cuomo was asking for 40,000 ventilators which would have meant that no other state would have a chance to get some. Everything went to NY, including medical staff. Well, they didn’t use the pop-up hospitals or medical ships. And, the state is taxing the good Samaritans.
As a result, I don’t take kindly with Cuomo talking down to the rest of the nation about our tries to reopen the economy.
I really don’t have a problem with the hospitals identifying anyone who tests positive for C19 to be coded as such. The hospitals are required to spend more time and effort to care for those patients since they have to be isolated from the other patients.
Re trusting the CDC and Fauci, I have more faith in my ability to look at my state’s website covering the cases by age, sex, county, city, zipcode. You don’t have to be a epidemiologist to recognize that the increase in the 18-34 age range in two large counties is the result of protests over a couple of weeks and not the reopening. The increase in other counties is probably due to employment re-openings and mandatory testing prior to returning to work.
And since Tulsa had some events about the 1921 race riots and Juneteenth before the Trump rally, I think that the increases in Tulsa cases are related to those events than the rally.
I will listen because he has an MD. Impressive. And from Cornell medical school. I trust the experts. Rest of you? Non-experts. Not smart.
Sharon, very interesting! I fear there are many, many stories like your husband’s that we just don’t know about/will never know about.
I’m so glad he recovered and that you discovered this issue.
GRA:
A person doesn’t have to be a credentialed “expert” to use logic and math.
I also rather chuckle at the idea that a medical degree, from Cornell or otherwise, makes someone correct. I have encountered many wonderful doctors in my time, and I have encountered many stupid/arrogant and even cruel ones. Their degrees and positions were irrelevant to which was which.
I’m surprised you haven’t had the same experience, which is quite common. The argument from authority generally carries no weight with me, whether the authority is an MD or any other authority. I watch and I read, I look at the evidence, and I come to my own conclusions as to whether that person is saying something correct or not. I don’t – and never have – agreed with a person because of his or her credentials and position. I also went to very highly rated schools and learned that some of my teachers were fools and some were smart and even, at times, wise.
John Tyler:
As far as I can tell, doctors wear masks in the operating theater in order to protect the patient and keep the field as sterile as possible. It’s not to protect the doctor.
When a patient has a highly infectious disease such as ebola, on the other hand, the medical people wear entirely different gear designed to protect themselves, sort of hazmat suits.
The cloth masks most of us are wearing have neither the characteristics of the doctors’ masks when operating nor the hazmat suits. The only thing I’ve ever read about the cloth ones is that they are about 20 to 30 percent effective in blocking transmission of the virus, and not effective in blocking receiving the virus from others, and that if a person is already infected and wears any type of mask it can have the effect of concentrating the virus load and making their symptoms worse.
Sharon W:
That’s interesting. Hope you’re both feeling well!!
What Dr Fauci said is quite interesting, and the exact opposite of what he intended and most media has interpreted it.
“The United States may soon record as many as 100,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day if the current trajectory of the outbreak is not changed, Fauci warned.”
Most specialists say that there have been ~130,000 deaths in the U.S. attributed to the virus since January. The fatality rate is considered to be 1 in 400 infected. That means ~50,000,000 over the roughly 180 days, or ~290,000 per day.
So Dr Fauci is predicting a REDUCTION in the second half of 2020 to one third the case rate for the first half of 2020 in the U.S.
GRA:
I’m an MD and I despise Fauci.
Fauci graduated from medical school (which one does not matter except for those inclined to worship the Ivies) in 1967. He took a two year internship and then went to work at NIH, where he has been ever since as a federal employee. He was never trained in internal medicine, thus is not Board-certified in that field or its Infectious Disease subspecialty. He is also not formally trained in epidemiology. He has never taken care of ill patients. He ended up head of the Infectious Disease Institute by gradual federal promotion, and we all know how that works: you keep your nose clean, your head down, do your job and kiss ass.
Trump made a grave mistake by calling him up. Understandable if one has no clue as to the Director’s job, which is to dispense grant monies….including a multi-million grant to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2013. Imagine that. The US under Fauci financed the Wuhan virus source in communist China, which in 2013 was already rolling in yuan.
Neo, you are correct about masks and their uses.
If one observes one’s fellow mask-wearing citizens, one often sees the mask below the nose; sometimes under the chin.
Cloth masks reduce but do not prevent the spraying of virus-laden mucus and saliva droplets. Masks are largely a PC charade. And of course hide the identities of looters and arsonists.
Hand washing and avoidance of hand-to-face virus transfer are the key.
But how will herd immunity ever be accomplished? Needs 70+% of the population to have been infected, twenty times more than at present.
Cicero:
What do you make of the discussion of the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) here?
Neo:
Handley’s explanations are right on point, IMHO. Thanks!
The HIT is close to being realized.
As I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen, it’s the IFR that matters.
And you don’t get this type of info from Fauci the benign agitator.
The innate immune system is different from the adaptive immune system. The innate system inhibits potentially infectious organisms by recognizing non-specific foreign proteins and recruiting natural killer cells to destroy infected cells. It relies on interferons and Toll receptors. The adaptive system works by learning to recognize specific surface antigen markers and training B cells to produce specific antibodies upon future recognition of these specific antigens. It relies on HLA histocompatibility antigens to present these markers to dendritic cells.
They have found that there are ways to enhance the innate system so that it works more efficiently for all foreign invaders. Viruses, bacteria, protozoa, worms, etc. Eg the use of BCG, a live sort-of-weakened TB bacillus, has been used all around the world to enhance resistance to TB. Surprisingly, it has been found that in those countries where it has been used, the rate of childhood deaths owing to almost all infectious disease had been reduced by about 33%. So too, now, it is known that oral polio vaccine, OPV, which is cheap and is used all over the world, has been found to enhance the innate immune system—especially against double stranded RNA viruses—so that it is more efficient in also preventing or ameliorating many other infectious diseases. Trials using BCG have already begun.
See Science 12 June 2020 by Chumakov, Konstantin.
“We propose the use of OPV to ameliorate or prevent COVID-19. Both poliovirus and coronavirus are positive-double strand RNA viruses; therefore, it is likely that they may induce or be affected by common innate immunity mechanisms. There are multiple important advantages to using OPV: a strong safety record, the existence of more than one serotype that could be used sequentially to prolong protection, low cost, ease of administration, and availability. Over 1 billion doses of OPV are produced and used annually in more than 140 countries.”
Neo & Cicero: I was joking. I never took stock of a person’s formal education as them being infallible. For MDs and PhDs, I see them as “experts” in their specific specialty, and nothing more. I only have witnessed wisdom from relatively old medical doctors who’ve been in the field for decades and decades, when their head is somewhat crowded with gray hair.
GRA:
Sometimes you gotta put up that smiley face.