The consensus seems to be that Epstein’s death…
…was murder. For the right it’s obviously the Clintons who contracted for the deed, and for the left it couldn’t be clearer that the culprits are their favorites, Trump and the Russians.
But I think the most likely explanation is that Epstein actually killed himself.
I can hear you saying, “Ah, neo, you naive fool!” I’ve heard that before. I hear it whenever I post something about Oswald having been the lone assassin of Kennedy. I heard it incessantly when I asserted that Bernie Madoff’s sons were innocent (and I have never seen a single thing to dissuade me from that belief). I fully expect to hear it now.
When I first read about Epstein’s death I had a number of thoughts. One of them was that, of course, the conspiracy theories would come instantly and variously. But I had some questions, too, and the two leaders were what kind of suicide watch Epstein was on, and what was the material or implement used to kill him.
At first I didn’t see any articles that were able to answer those two questions, which seem central to me. And I still haven’t read any details of how. But then it began to emerge that he was not on suicide watch at all.
What on earth?
All the articles I initially read about Epstein stated that he had been on suicide watch. Were they just assuming that? Do we really know? From the article I just linked:
Department of Justice spokesman Lee Plourde told The Post that Epstein, 66, was not “currently” on watch in his cell at the Manhattan Correctional Facility while he awaited trial on child sex-trafficking charges.
Plourde refused to say whether that meant Epstein had been taken off additional monitoring or whether he had never been getting special attention to make sure he did not kill himself.
“I’m not going to discuss his previous medical status,” he said…
It is also unclear if Epstein was in a cell by himself or shared his cell.
As an old boyfriend of mine used to say, clear as mud.
It’s not hard to understand why the conspiracy theories are flying. I acknowledge that the situation is exceedingly suspicious, and the lack of detail or explanation feeds into the conspiracy theory mindset. I will add that I certainly would not be the least bit surprised if it turned out that Epstein was indeed killed by someone, either another inmate or someone who didn’t want him to talk. But I don’t think we’ll ever know.
Here’s more from the NY Times:
But one federal prison official with knowledge of the incident said Mr. Epstein had been taken off suicide watch a few days ago, and was being held alone in a cell in a special housing unit.
The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of being fired, said guards found Mr. Epstein in the empty cell during morning rounds. He had hanged himself and he appeared to be dead…
To take an inmate off suicide watch a “post-watch report” needs to be completed, which includes an analysis of how the inmate’s circumstances have changed and why that merits removal from the watch.
As I said, however, at this point (subject to revision as facts emerge) I think it most likely that Epstein actually did kill himself, and I think it most likely that the prison administrators were negligent rather than purposely setting him up.
In the comments to a previous thread, “R.C.” wrote, in a comment that I think states what the vast majority of people believe: “The notion that [Epstein] actually killed himself — when already on suicide watch — seems too vanishingly unlikely to be worthy of consideration.”
However, it seems Epstein wasn’t on suicide watch, although he had been until very recently. But even if he had been on suicide watch at the time of his death, the fact is that people sometimes do kill themselves under such circumstances, depending on the type of watch it is. Although successful suicides under watch are rare, some people are so determined to kill themselves that they can find very creative ways (see this).
If you want to get up to speed on all the varieties of suicide watch, take a look here (see also this). Usually the most stringent sort of suicide watch is not used, for reasons that will become obvious if you read the link.
But the main reason I think it at least somewhat likely that Epstein committed suicide is that his motivation to do so was probably very powerful. Think about it. By his own standards he’d had many decades of an exciting ride, full of money and famous people and the ability to fulfill his kinky sexual proclivities. But his fun life as he knew it was over. He was facing the prospect of being locked up for his remaining years, after a trial that exposed his worst deeds and also probably was going to feature a lot of lies about him too, from pilers-on. He is a figure of enormous revulsion from most of the world. He’s 66 years old. He has neither wife nor children.
Why would the man I just described not want to kill himself? What does he have to live for? And where there’s a will, there’s generally a way.
When I first read that they were charging Epstein again, despite his previous (suspiciously mild) plea deal, I wrote the following (and I suggest you read the whole post for some additional background):
I was just reading an email from a reader who mentioned that the real target of the SDNY action against Epstein is Trump. Just as occurred with many of the prosecutions related to the Mueller investigation, the idea is to get the accused to turn on Trump in exchange for some sort of leniency.
Well, naturally. And even if Epstein himself doesn’t give them what they want, the press can report all sorts of rumors about it. The fact that Bill Clinton has a far greater paper trail that potentially implicates him in terms of Epstein is of no importance whatsoever to present-day Democrats, who consider him (and his wife, to a certain extent) as a Great White Albatross.
On, and another person connected with Trump who can be slammed (probably correctly, in this case) is Trump’s Secretary of Labor, Alexander Acosta, who years ago was the US Attorney instrumental in arranging the previous lenient deal that let Epstein off surprisingly lightly…
As I connect the dots, there might be some genuine outrage at how relatively lightly Epstein got off, but far more important in terms of motive was the opportunity to distract the public and call its attention to Acosta, who had nothing to do with Trump at the time as far as I know but who now serves under him, and then potentially to Trump. That Clinton and others might be collateral damage is of no importance to them by now; he’s become a liability anyway.
I continue to believe that the opportunity to get Trump, even though there is actually nothing that has emerged implicating Trump in relation to Epstein’s crimes at all, was paramount in precipitating this new action against Epstein. Now it has resulted in Epstein’s death, which serves the purpose of keeping the conspiracy theories alive—probably forever.
Occam’s Razor tells me suicide as well. The possibility of him being taken off suicide watch as the result of outside forces remains, though.
My mind does not immediately jump to conspiracy, or even the possibility of conspiracy theories. I read about the suicide late last night, thought “always sad when anybody does that,” and didn’t give it any more thought. This morning I saw multiple Facebook posts along the lines of “I just want everyone to know that I do not know anything whatsoever about the Clintons”. Took me a minute to figure out what they were talking about.
– Breaking News – Conspiracy theories begin in – – – 3, 2, 1.
Jeffrey Epstein Found Dead; Had Been on Suicide Watch, Claimed to Have Committed Suicide, Apparently the New York prison version of “suicide watch” is just watching you while you commit suicide, so they can critique your form and make suggestions.
I would be checking the missing persons reports for a man in his mid 60’s who looks like Epstein and has been reported missing. Perhaps after being paid millions of dollars the Jailers brought in a corpse that looks like Epstein, sent it to the paid off staff at the hospital, millions, and they confirm Epstein killed himself, meanwhile he was whisked off in a private Jet to a small island in the Pacific where he will be tended to by nubile 14 year olds until they reach 16 years old and they will have aged out just like the old stewardesses for the major airlines in the old days, or something like that.
I suspect he did kill himself, he knew his future was bleak and he was going to have to listen to a lot of stuff about being a pervert and recently it appears he stole most all of his wealth, he was a vain SOB getting ready to be dragged through his own mud.
The Daily Mail reports that Atty. General Barr has ordered the FBI and the DOJ Inspector General to investigate this death. This is good, and, if conducted properly and the results are made public, should tamp down the conspiracy theories (although it won’t eliminate them). I am assuming suicide, for the reasons Neo cites, unless evidence proves otherwise. I do want to know how a man at such high risk was able to kill himself in a high security jail.
What really struck me was the insanity of the leftist conspiracy theories. Trump has no known connection to Epstein’s sex crimes. And why would Russians care? The Clinton conspiracy theories at least are based on Bill Clinton’s having hung around with Epstein after his presidency, the time period when sex crimes were alleged.
The most recent reporting says that, post his first supposed suicide attempt, Epstein was dressed in paper garments and was given a blanket that supposedly couldn’t be used to hang himself.
However, the article also said that the unit he was in was so short staffed that inmates were being used to work in the unit/watch those on suicide watch.
If this is true, this is an incredible level of incompetence, or an easy way to allow inmates to get to Epstein.
Just how much money was being offered “on the street” to kill Epstein? My guess would be a hellava lot.
As one commenter advised, keep a long term eye on the bank accounts and lifestyle of the people who were involved–both in the unit, supervising them, and perhaps a lot higher.
If we have learned anything over the last few years, it is that many of the people running law enforcement cannot be trusted.
It is just too convenient that a person who could have put the spotlight on scores of prominent, wealthy, and powerful people–the Clintons included–caused them major embarrassment or perhaps destroyed their reputations, and perhaps even put some of them in legal jeopardy, just happens to succeed in “committing suicide” in jail, while being deprived of the usual things necessary to commit suicide, and while under what one would suppose was constant observation.
It is very hard to know whom or what to believe in this impossibly convoluted, sordid, and repugnant tale, but there are now circulating various rumors about the cameras monitoring the egregious Epstein conveniently malfunctioning.
I agree with neo.
Joe Scarborough of Morning Joe infamy suggested the Russians killed him. Probably on Trump’s order.
More money for the tort claimants as the money on criminal defense lawyers is no longer necessary.
I also see where Leslie Wexner claims JE stole money from him. And Wexner is supposedly a smart guy.
If you have been observing today’s politics and aren’t a cynic by now, you haven’t been watching closely enough.
We also have to keep in mind that Epstein was a master manipulator of people. Who knows what he told the people in the prison that might have persuaded them to loosen the suicide watch. What did he tell his lawyers that they passed on?
I’m glad he is gone. Maybe the people who fell for him will get a bit of a wake up call.
Lots of people talking about Jeffery Epstein this morning and he has barely cooled off, this one from his attorney caught my attention :
(Marc Fernich, one of the multimillionaire’s attorneys, said in a statement to Fox News that he is “outraged” at Epstein’s death and that there is “plenty of blame to go around for this unthinkable tragedy.”)
I am kind of thinking Epstein is to blame for his situation and death, along with the jail folks not keep him alive. As for Fernich, Epstein’s attorney this was not a good morning and I can imagine how many millions Epstein was going to spend in attorney fees during the upcoming celebrity show trial might have been as big a deal as O.J.’s and now poof, it’s gone. Of course the prosecution side is going to be disappointed, I remember reading Wolfe’s ‘Bonfire of the Vanities’ and taking a white, rich, defendant to trial was a dream come true and now, poof it’s gone.
“But then it began to emerge that he was not on suicide watch at all.
What on earth?”
I’m dumbfounded. That fact alone does make the inevitable conspiracy theories seem at least rational.
Guy tries to commit suicide and then they take him OFF suicide watch in such a high profile case is awful fishy. Unless it turns out he himself advocated coming off the watch strongly enough and convincingly enough that the authorities acquiesced. Then for sure he did himself him after duping all those professional guards and wardens and shrinks. They are usually pretty gullible aren’t they?
Sick joke making the rounds: If you’re surprised by Jeffrey Epstein’s suicide, imagine how surprised Epstein is.
Yes, he probably did kill himself, but I think it very likely that someone in authority was enticed into letting it happen.
Considering that pedophiles are considered to be the lowest of the low by every other prisoner, and I am sure that everyone around him was happy to tell him the fate that would await him in prison… there is a standard graphic joke involving o and O.
I consider it likely that he did commit suicide and that others made it possible for him to do it by turning a blind eye (so convenient for many that he disappear).
One would think this is the response most folks in a position of responsibility re Epstein would have had:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/prison-experts-are-stunned-angry-jeffrey-epstein-was-taken-suicide-n1041121
Exactly, Ann.
Actually, if Epstein was murdered, it could also have been MI6. Prince Andrew may not want people paying attention to the recent document release and instead be looking into Epstein’s suicide.
The latest news being reported is that, for some strange reason, the two prison guards who were supposed to make 30 minute checks on all prisoners and a separate 15 minute check on those on suicide watch, Epstein, skipped making those checks for a 30 minute period last night.
It seems to me that sometime past I’ve seen a TV cop show in which the plot was that prison guards did something–maybe being inattentive while an inmate killed the target of a crime boss–got fired because of their dereliction of duty, and only got caught because they couldn’t resist spending some of the money that they were paid off with–which apparently was far more money than their salaries and/or pensions were worth.
See https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/08/breaking-despite-his-recent-suicide-attempt-mcc-prison-guards-skipped-30-minute-required-checks-on-epstein-overnight/
What is the best way to determine suicidal intent? Ask them.
Here is an article were it suggests that the original claim of suicidal intent came from a throttling incident, on July 23, where the prison officials jumped to that assumption. This, in spite of Mr. Epstein’s claims that he was assaulted. Of course, it may or may not have been a reasonable assumption depending on detailed facts. But it appears that Mr. Epstein never made a statement of suicidal intent, and probably denied it.
At Fox News: “Trump retweets post implying Bill Clinton behind Jeffrey Epstein’s death”:
Coincidentally, a very timely death for many elitists. Not saying it was not an actual suicide unforced, but we need more information, which will never be provided. Senator Sasse (R Nebraska) has sent a letter to Barr asking for a thorough investigation of the suicide. We’ll see.
… I think it most likely that the prison administrators were negligent rather than purposely setting him up.
neo: It’s unlikely we will find out for sure, but I would bet the other side of that.
We have seen plenty of incompetence in our institutions, but we’ve also seen our elites seriously colluding. For instance, RussiaGate, Hillary’s email server, or the charges being dropped for no good reason against Jussie Smollett.
The stakes are high and an Epstein trial would have been quite damaging very high up. There’s a whole lotta cui bono here.
Lots of strange things happen around people who get involved with the Clintons. I shy away from conspiracy theories, while my wife loves them; but, just saying.
William Jefferson, aka “Slick Willy”, may have just escaped another cess pool; assuming that a person of Epstein’s obviously noxious character would have sold anyone down the river if it helped his personal situation. Of course there are still flight manifests, and possible stories from witnesses, etc., in the unlikely event that anyone were interested in opening that fetid box.
Let’s also think about the connection with Robert Maxwell, the British publishing tycoon who died in 1991, after supposedly falling overboard from his luxury yacht. In his time, he was suspected of connections with Soviet and Israeli intelligence (not surprisingly, as he was originally a Jew from Czechoslovakia).
His daughter Ghislaine Maxwell was very closely connected with Jeffrey Epstein; in fact, both she and Epstein had been sued by several of their victims, shortly before his arrest.
I hope all this blows wide open so we can see what these rich and powerful people have really been doing. It may well be that Epstein and Maxwell used their access to teenage girls for blackmail and intelligence-gathering.
Another “conspiracy” theory has emerged, that Epstein was not self-aborted or otherwise, but rather in protective custody, since his trans-social lifestyle implicates hundreds, perhaps thousands, of male and female elites who indulged in liberal license with underage girls, children. I don’t think there are many socially progressive people of this particular, peculiar order.
ISS MCC-CAM SecurOSTM MCC Direct Connect – Camera license (per camera)
either they were working or they weren’t..
MCC prison cameras are not video tape in a deli under the register…
they are literal rolling evidence collectors…
There are those who agree: https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2019/08/epstein-dies-of-arkancide.html
To update Ian Fleming: Once is chance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_rules
And 47 times is the Clintons. https://www.conservapedia.com/Clinton_body_count
You thought it was “Suicide Watch.”
but it was really “Suicide, Watch!!!”
Stolen from a Legal Insurrection commenter. Funny.
There was a rumour after the first attempt that it wasn’t actually a suicide attempt but an attack by another prisoner. If that was true, it explains why the prison dropped the suicide watch so quickly. It was merely a cover for the story. They didn’t expect him to actually commit suicide.
Of course, this is a conspiracy theory in the other direction, that the prison attempted to cover up an assault by a fellow prisoner, and it backfired on them.
Things aren’t always what they seem, but more often they are. There are plenty of reasons to think this was a murder; by the Clintons, other powerful and wealthy people, and politicians. Other inmates and the prison guards are notoriously hostile to those accused and convicted of crimes against children – perhaps they took him out?
As you nicely catalog Neo, all the evidence so far indicates he killed himself for the simple reason that the life he built and enjoyed was over. Just like Bernie Madoff and Aaron Hernandez, life ceased to be worth living.
There will be investigations – AG Barr has reportedly started two – and we will eventually get a “most likely” answer.
cui bono has the peculiar effect of proving a conspiracy. If anybody can be shown to have benefited, then everything leading to the conclusion is conclusively proven.
IMO, that’s why there are so many wacky ideas about who benefited from the Las Vegas shooting. GOT to be somebody. And once we have a nominee…presto, everything’s proven.
This is one of those cases where the conspiracy theories will suck up all the oxygen and asphyxiate the truth. If people would wait for an official investigation to come to a conclusion before opining… but no. So, we will never know the truth.
I’ve had two further thoughts on contemplating this alleged suicide. The first is that there was controversy about whether Epstein could be prosecuted on federal charges, having been already plea-bargained in Florida. Some lawyers thought these new charges would stand, but some did not, including Andrew McCarthy, whose opinions I respect. Epstein had a high-powered defense team, and it’s possible that he thought he’d be out of jail in a year or so. So I’m not sure about the picture of him in deep despair, although it’s possible.
The other is the thought of some sort of accidental asphyxiation during a sexual maneuver. Didn’t Robin Williams die that way — or maybe I have that wrong, but it’s not unheard-of.
My impression, from reading what Artfldgr has posted above, is that the surveillance system used in the jail where Epstein was held was a pretty sophisticated one, and it would be very unlikely for just one set of cameras to develop a “glitch” and cease transmitting.
Thus, it appears that someone with some real technical know how would have been needed to produce such a ‘”glitch.”
Point two:
Just how far does the corruption in the DOJ and FBI extend to, and how many people in these agencies were involved in some aspect of the coup–did something illegal–and are now, therefore, unreliable; much more likely to do what will keep them from being exposed, fired, or prosecuted, and not what they are sworn to do?
Barr has called for an investigation of the Epstein matter.
But, how can AG Barr be sure of the people around him, sure that those he charges with doing something will actually and fully do it, and report back honestly and fully to him?
This is the result of an unreliable, unaccountable, and untrustworthy governing class. The official report is highly suspect because the officials are known to be compromised, in general and specifically in this case. The official report is itself a potential conspiracy theory and must compete with the other conspiracy theories for acceptance.
There’s an aphorism (I’ve heard attributed to the Chinese) applicable to AG Barr’s circumstances in this Epstein matter, and well beyond into the DoJ, actually: Kill the chicken, let the monkey watch.
Swift and harsh dismissals are in order. “Order”, as opposed to chaos, being the guiding term.
There are many “Arkancide” lists our there, the below is one of the shorter ones at https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/08/here-it-is-complete-list-of-clinton-associates-who-allegedly-died-mysteriously-or-committed-suicide-before-testimony-including-jeffrey-epstein/
I loved the case where someone was found stuffed in a 55 gallon drum,
with the back of his head blown off, and the coroner ruled it a “suicide,” and that’s not the only such “suicide” on the list.
Like you neo I usually look askance at conspiracy theories but I think we all at least want to know what actually happened with the alleged “suicide watch” and whether it was put into place and then removed or what. Also given how arrogant Epstein was and how he had gotten away with everything for so long it is not clear that he would suddenly give in to suicidal despair though it is possible.
Kate’s suggestion of “accidental asphyxiation during a sexual maneuver” is also plausible. But a lot of explanations are “plausible”. Given the high profile and the fact he was involved with so many top-ranking politicians we want more than “plausible”.
Re: “Arkancide”, I’ve seen those lists. Some are a stretch, e. g. heart attack of someone in their 60s while others make you go “Hmmm”. But regardless of actual murder what you can’t miss is the tremendous amount of sleaze surrounding the Clintons.
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The other is the thought of some sort of accidental asphyxiation during a sexual maneuver. Didn’t Robin Williams die that way — or maybe I have that wrong, but it’s not unheard-of.
Kate: You are likely thinking of actor, David Carradine. Robin Williams intentionally hung himself, while suffering mental illness and Parkinson’s.
My trust of the “Daily Post” is limited but this article based on a former inmate’s experience of that prison asserts:
There’s no way [Epstein] could have killed himself. I’ve done too much time in those units. It’s an impossibility.
Between the floor and the ceiling is like eight or nine feet. There’s no way for you to connect to anything.
You have sheets, but they’re paper level, not strong enough. He was 200 pounds — it would never happen.
…Could he have done it from the bed? No sir. There’s a steel frame, but you can’t move it. There’s no light fixture. There’s no bars.
They don’t give you enough in there that could successfully create an instrument of death. You want to write a letter, they give you rubber pens and maybe once a week a piece of paper.
Nothing hard or made of metal.
https://nypost.com/2019/08/10/former-mcc-inmate-theres-no-way-jeffrey-epstein-killed-himself/
So far we’ve not seen any picture of Epstein’s cell or explanation for how he managed to kill himself. I’m rather curious for the specifics.
Ah, that was the “New York Post,” not “Daily Post.”
Another Post story offers a twist, which I find believable as well, that Epstein had a confederate arrange for help so that he could commit suicide.
https://nypost.com/2019/08/11/former-gotti-confidant-says-jail-where-jeffrey-epstein-died-catered-toward-wealthy-inmates/
I remain skeptical Epstein managed to kill himself because it just happened the right prison professionals were asleep at the switch.
He probably killed himself, the first injuries he sustained last week having been from a first attempt at suicide.
If it’s not that, he was probably killed. In that case the first injuries he sustained last week having were from a first attempt at murder.
But I’m hoping — not with much hope, mind you — that the first injuries last week were from an interrupted murder attempt, and that his “suicide” this week is a fake-out, and that he’s in WitSec.
Let’s hope. Because his testimony is far-and-away the most likely way we’re going to bring down his nasty clientele list.
huxley:
I don’t know whether you followed the link I put on the word “this” in the following quote: “Although successful suicides under watch are rare, some people are so determined to kill themselves that they can find very creative ways (see this).” This is the link.
neo: Yes, I read it. I don’t consider it a refutation of my point, which I framed as my “skepticism.”
If you have a protocol for high value prisoners, and a highest-value-anybody-can-conceive prisoner shows up, the impulse to drop the protocol to the county lock up for DUI shouldn’t arise. IOW, it was willed. It cannot be incompetence.
Super… We’ll knock it off tonight guys, go get some coffee and watch porn or something. I’ll keep you on the clock.
Guards….Boss, this guy is like a big effing deal. Shouldn’t we…?
Boss, Nah, he’s not no problem.
IMO, boss knows, knew, was reminded, …..
Question is how many layers above him passed on the take-it-easy-you’ve-earned-a-break orders.
It does seem like the way was cleared, that the safeguards for the most famous, high-profile prisoner in the U.S. where removed, one by one.
Latest reporting is that the staff Psychiatrist signed off on saying that Epstein was not a suicide risk and, then, that the Warden signed off on dismissing the suicide watch on him.
Then, of course we have the guards who didn’t do their mandatory checks for a 30 minute period on the night Epstein supposedly committed “suicide.”
Another report is saying that either Epstein was put in a cell that did not have any video surveillance capability, or the available video surveillance did not cover his cell.
If these reports are true, just too high a number of stupid mistakes for this to just be a matter of a few innocent “oversights.”
Just because most conspiracy theories are rubbish doesn’t mean they all are.
We’ve just been through RussiaGate, which at this point I believe most participants here agree was a conspiracy — against Trump.
Jimmy Hoffa is still missing. Just because he might have gotten lost and fallen down a well or changed his identity and moved to Alaska, doesn’t make those the preferred explanations lest one succumb to the conspiracy theory that the Mafia killed Hoffa.
Snow on Pine:
Never, never, never underestimate the incompetence of bureaucracies and institutions.
huxley:
It’s not meant to be a refutation of your skepticism. It’s meant to be a refutation of the guy in that article who said it’s an impossibility to commit suicide while under suicide watch.
It’s actually irrelevant to the Epstein case, because he wasn’t even under suicide watch at the time of his death.
I cannot help but get a laugh at today’s set of cartoons over at
https://www.pbase.com/opinion/maniacal
Go take a look. It is one of my favorite humor sites.
Neo–So do we think that the people who run a prison like this–in New York City, no less–were so out of touch with current events, so inexperienced, and so naive that they didn’t realize the possibility that someone as prominent and dangerous to a lot of powerful people as Epstein was very likely going to have people trying to permanently silence him? To quote VP Biden, “Come on!”
Herewith another “clearing the way” action, which makes this just being “stupidity” even less likely.
The New York Times is now reporting that when Epstein was taken off “suicide watch,” the prisoner they had put in his cell as an extra precaution was removed, and that Epstein had been alone in his cell for some days.
Forget about the “suicide watch,” how about the “a lot of very powerful people–including the Clintons–would like to see Epstein dead and permanently silenced” watch?
How come that “watch” wasn’t instituted?
Snow on Pine:
I think that organizations—particularly ones connected with government, but all organizations—tend to be incompetent, especially if they are large. That’s been my experience.
I have said that it’s not that I am sure Epstein killed himself and that their incompetence was accidental. I am certainly not sure of that. If I learned he was murdered I would not be inordinately surprised. I would be quite unsurprised as well if I learned that people were “negligent on purpose.”
But that’s not what I think is most likely. I think it’s more likely that the incompetence and negligence and stupidity was real.
And I am planning to write a post probably tomorrow or the next day on why he may have been taken off suicide watch, and related topics.
R.C., as to your (I agree, faint hope) that Epstein is in protective custody somewhere, I hope his custodians are very, very diligent. The guy is a sociopath. Anything he says or does may be fake.
R.C., as to your (I agree, faint) hope that Epstein is in protective custody somewhere, I hope his custodians are very, very diligent. The guy is a sociopath. Anything he says or does may be fake.
Neo. I went to Enormous State University. I was in the Army and I worked for and with some very large corporations.
Incompetence and negligence are most common during routine operations. There was one military function which did not function–allotments–and everybody knew it but the folks were federal employees and so there was nothing to be done ABOUT it. But a workaround was devised and used.
When something big shows up, routine is altered and people are more involved. That’s when negligence is less common–startling exceptions admitted–and incompetence watched for.
IOW, when Epstein showed up, the boring routine which led to lapses was probably shocked by what might be considered the noisy baggage accompanying the guy.
I might be wrong, but the way to bet is that it wasn’t the usual Keystone Kops thing which happened all the other days.
Yes, and yes … if I had to guess that there was more there than just the usual run-of-the-mill public employee negligence and malign stupidity.
It’s not meant to be a refutation of your skepticism. It’s meant to be a refutation of the guy in that article who said it’s an impossibility to commit suicide while under suicide watch.
neo: I’m aware that impossibility is a big claim. I didn’t consider the guy’s informal wording as an absolute scientific statement of fact but as a hyperbolic comment that it would be quite difficult to do so.
I expressed my reservation of the Post and my curiosity of the actual circumstances of Epstein’s imprisonment, which I don’t assume necessarily match the guy’s description.
But that’s not what I think is most likely. I think it’s more likely that the incompetence and negligence and stupidity was real.
neo: That’s what makes this discussion difficult. We are assessing shades of gray based on woefully incomplete information.
We are “betting” on what we consider likely, not proving anything, and our bets depend on personal experience and knowledge, so we bet differently. As more information comes in, our bets may converge.
Speaking for myself, I know I am betting and I know others may assess their bets differently, which I expect.
One can debate whether some bets are better than others but that’s a murky business.
Cleckley, one of the original expositors of psychopathy, claimed that psychopathic personalities rarely committed suicide. I have seen several papers denying this more recently, however. I guess the mystery is more why any sentient employee of the jail in which Epstein was kept, would not watch him constantly, willy billy, knowing that he was one of the most important inmates in years. One would watch him constantly for several reasons…which are obvious….whether or not he was suicidal or acted suicidal, because of his high risk of being murdered.
Cleckley, one of the original expositors of psychopathy, claimed that psychopathic personalities rarely committed suicide.
Dnaxy: My stepfather was certainly a psychopath or a sociopath. He committed suicide after learning he had an incurable brain tumor. Otherwise, I’m sure he would have been happy to continue his merry way visiting mayhem on normal people.
Likewise, I can imagine Epstein committing suicide looking at an incurable life sentence in prison.
That said, I agree in sensible circumstances Epstein would have been watched hard, especially after his first suicide attempt or whatever that was.
Again, my bet is that however Epstein died, there was a decision by some prison officials not to get in the way. People may get negligent when they think no one is watching. But that was not the case with Epstein. He was the most famous and notorious criminal in the world at the time and he already appeared to be suicidal.
It just stinks.
“It just stinks.”
Yes it does. If I had to bet I might bet the same way neo would, that it was suicide possibly enabled by routine bureaucratic incompetence. But the point of my previous comment was that probability doesn’t cut it here, whether it’s 51% or even 85%. Anyone who was following this knew that the Epstein case had the potential to be explosively damaging to many important people. If the circumstances of his death are not fully aired it will only feed the growing cynicism towards politics and people with positions of authority.
Of course those circumstances themselves could make that cynicism exponentially worse if Huxley is right. But we are better off with the truth regardless.
We’ve just been through RussiaGate, which at this point I believe most participants here agree was a conspiracy — against Trump.
Americans are used to believing in conspiracies that the media tells them are true and disbelieving the ones “everyone” agrees is bunk.
Unfortunately, that stopped working once the online community began poking holes in fake news or as the Left called it, Faux News.
I find it less ironic but nominally quaint and predictable that people, here at least, still think “Epstein killing himself” is not murder. Haha. That’s so 19th century thinking.
There are many ways to get someone to commit suicide, even before the advent of 21st century Monarch and MK Ultra technologies.
Question is how many layers above him passed on the take-it-easy-you’ve-earned-a-break orders.
Reminds me of Benghazi, “Stand Down, let them die”.
So many media fake news sewer boys and girls told gullible Americans that “no such orders” existed. Of course.
I think I should directly reply to Neo’s cite of my earlier comment, in the main post.
At the time, my understanding of the facts-in-evidence was:
– Epstein had sustained harm a week or two ago;
– That harm had been deemed possibly a suicide attempt, but there was question about whether it was or not;
– Epstein had been placed on “suicide watch” (about which, I am ignorant of the details; but I assume it means elevated regular observation and sufficient increased expense to the prison system that they don’t like to maintain it overlong);
– Then, he died of an apparent suicide;
– Normal procedure is to investigate any apparent suicide in a prison as a murder until it’s proven to be suicide;
– Persons in the administration of the prison would identify Epstein as an inmate under threat, as well as a potential witness of high-value, and thus make a conscientious effort to cross t’s and dot i’s with respect to his security;
So, the idea that he died of suicide while on suicide watch played a big role in my inclination to rank murder as the best explanation.
At present, the facts-in-evidence are being reported differently:
– He wasn’t on suicide watch;
– According to policy at that prison, he was supposed to be on suicide watch because it had been less than two weeks since some harm had been done to him which might have been a suicide attempt;
– According to policy at that prison, he shouldn’t have been in his cell alone, but his cellmate was moved elsewhere in violation of that policy;
– Those familiar with the prison system have been all over the news assuring the public (if “assuring” is the right word) that, unfortunately, the administration of prisons and the personnel involved regularly show a mix of incompetence and bureaucratic officiousness, refusing either to acknowledge circumstances requiring extra-careful treatment, or to properly execute normal standards consistently.
Given the above new information, I’ve shifted my probabilities as follows:
35% – suicide after an earlier failed attempt
30% – suicide after an earlier attack on his person
30% – murdered
5% – he’s WitSec, having been jarred into the precariousness of his situation by the earlier attack on his person, if that’s what it was
…and, the most important probability estimate of all:
100% – I don’t have enough experience of, or reliable information about, any of this to think I have a snowball’s chance of correctly estimating the probabilities of any of the scenarios above; consequently the probability estimates given above should be treated as entirely derivative of my lower G.I. tract.
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Ymarsakar on August 12, 2019 at 10:13 am said:
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There are Fusion center technologies that can mind jack someone from a distance using frequency vibration technology (not released to your civilians). It’s called gang stalking online.
It is practical and feasible to kill Epstein from a distance indirectly, especially if it led to him killing himself. Too bad there he wasn’t tinfoil, that might have blocked some of the microwave power wavelengths ; )
Welcome to the 21st century, American slaves of the Deep State and Federal Reserve. Get used to the power of your nobles hidden and overt.
So what excuse do you have now, Neo, of censoring that post?
The list must be getting pretty long now.
JE’s peculiar death is an appropriate closing act to his stupid life.
One resulting in a panoply of entertainment to the public.
Strange and odd how this brute got off so easy in the past.
Crazy odd that ther is so much mystery about how he became so filthy rich.
What is wrong with some western men? Preying on the oh so vulnerable young female – Epstein and his customers, Rotherham etc – instead of being a man and protecting them.
Give me toxic masculinity of the chivalric variety anyday over this sleaze.
And finally, has JE’s last will and testament been read and made public yet? Who inherits his insane fortune??? ….. ? ……
Yammer has discovered “Men Staring at Goats” and he’s the star, only we know Yammer has the cloven feet.