I think a lot of people might vote for Trump in 2020…
…in part for the entertainment value.
Trump is, among other things, a good comedian with good comic timing. The New York accent doesn’t hurt, either.
And it’s not just comedy, by any means—it’s that Trump isn’t boring. Most politicians, even the better ones, are often very very boring. They drone on. They talk jargon in voices that threaten to become (and often do become) monotonous. They never seem spontaneous. The life seems to have been drained out of them.
It’s interesting, I think, to go back and read a post I wrote in August of 2015, not too long after Trump first became a candidate. I was watching one of his rallies, the first I’d ever seen at the time, and I wrote this:
Trump has mastered not just the “art of the deal” but the art of giving a speech that sounds like ad-libbing stream-of-consciousness but is not…
Trump is a happy warrior, or at least talks like one…How he’ll get around the impediments that stand in the way is unclear, but people don’t want clarity. They like his style. They like his spirit…
Anyone who reads this blog knows that I’m not a Trump supporter, but that I also get his appeal. Watching him speak at length, I “got” it even more. He makes all other politicians look boring and stilted (hey, many of them are boring and stilted). He makes it all sound so simple—just as Obama did, but in a completely different direction and with a completely, and I mean completely, different style. Populist appeal is a neat trick in a man who’s a multi-billionaire and who grew up in enormous wealth and graduated from Wharton. But he’s got it, and although I’m sure he carefully nurtures it he manages to make it look natural.
From the start of Trump’s rise in the polls I’ve taken him very seriously as a phenomenon. I haven’t understood those who casually asserted “He’s never going to win the nomination.” I’ve long thought he could, because the force of that appeal is obvious, and he’s somehow made himself immune to being criticized for anything he says. His niche is “the more outrageous, the better,” and the more extreme his utterances the more his supporters seem to like him—although not all of what he says is extreme, of course, and some is just common sense.
If I were one of the other Republican candidates I’d be very very scared. And if I were one of the Democratic candidates I’d be scared, too.
That turned out to be prescient, although I never thought he could win the presidency.
Now his opponents seem to know enough to be scared. They used to be contemptuous, and it was no pretense. Now they still act contemptuous, and on a certain level I think many are, although it’s misplaced (“I’m so smart and he’s so dumb!”). But I think that by now they’re all at least somewhat scared, as well they should be. Now they know something of the power of Trump’s appeal. And now they also have to contend with his record of accomplishments as president, too. So even though they have the press 110% on their side, they must know he’s a formidable opponent.
Trump was not in my top 5 candidates. What I wanted was:
1. Not Mrs Clinton
2. Judges
3. Gravy
And Trump has produced all three very well. I might even become a supporter of his (not that it makes much difference in the election as I live in Calif).
I supported a string of Real Conservatives. Once Trump won the nomination, and because Not Hillary was my primary requirement, I decided to relax and enjoy the ride. Besides Trump’s productive presidency, he’s occasionally really funny.
Roy in Nipomo, if all the conservatives in California, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York vote in 2020, we might even avoid having the Democrat, whoever it is, win the “popular vote.” It would be really, really amusing to see the “Popular Vote” compact collapse.
But I think that by now they’re all at least somewhat scared, as well they should be. Now they know something of the power of Trump’s appeal.
yeah… in case you havent noticed, its a very high level of competency, that delivers what it says, takes the knocks, is not distracted, and in that is honest in those that support him get what he promises…
and funny funny… the reasons you dont know that is that the lefts bs is believerable on some level and so you never ever had a clear vision of what he is at his core, or what other business owners are mostly at their core.
people who make others happy as a means of earning rewards.
its never surprised me that those who can make no one happy, not even themselves, hate capitalism as they cant see how it works and how to be successful in anything but cheating.
this thread has actually bled into most all beliefs, even those that claim not, that they cant imagine “in these dirty times” such men exist… well, duh, they always exist, and they are always disliked, and they always draw fire onto themselves, and they always prevail on some level mysterious to the incognosenti of the left.
who can believe a billionaire can be honest – in terms of following the rules not in terms of some other personal morality that varies from person to person and is of no consequence…
anyone who understands that there is a cure for a certain disease and the cure is success, its the pill you take that changes OTHERS minds, not yours. Or as the song says “every-bodies so different, i haven’t changed…”
he isnt show and smoke…
Almost 4 million jobs created since election
More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
We have created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since election.
Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES
[the longer the tarrifs go and higher the more other countries will benefit and the less our companies will keep eggs in one basket and turn over their IP to function]
Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent.
[didn’t the last administration try to convince us we would NEVER see higher than 2 percent?
New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low
Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded
African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
[and this in an administration riddled with people who would favor dropping a point here shaving a dot there.. you know… for the cause]
Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
[guess poor old born racist hated by their own ladies cis gendered white guys….]
Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years..
[you mean they could work that far back in time?]
Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century
Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever
Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
[yeah. people didnt get that they had more money in their weekly payroll and less in their return – and the hardest hit were really wealthy people using tax code to partly fund really expensive houses they then sell and earn profit on, rinse, repeat]
small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
[ergo all the hiring and returning to work rather than sitting waiting to die]
win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles
[oh oh, the world will see what its like there, will tents be on airbnb?]
Record number of regulations eliminated.
the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high.
United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016
Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
etc..
and could you imagine what could have been done without the dems bs?
because to that list, you can now clearly see if one chooses too, how desperate, and Pyrrhic, hateful, and more.. and if one has half a brain, one might realize that there is even more under the mask, and your only seeing a sliver from the side
Artfldgr:
In case you haven’t noticed from most of my posts since Trump’s presidency began, I’ve been well aware of Trump’s pluses since not long after he actually became president and I’ve watched his behavior as president.
So I have no idea what you mean by “the reason you don’t know that…” I have acknowledged those characteristics of Trump that you list, and written often about those things, for quite some time.
I too favored another, first Scott Walker then Ted Cruz. After Trump won the nomination, there was never any doubt in my mind that he was to be vastly preferred over Clinton.
Since Trump took office I’ve been impressed with him in that he’s done or tried to do what he promised but most of all, given the Left’s “resistance” have reached the conclusion that, at this point, he’s exactly the right man for the Presidency.
“I like this man, he fights!”
Out of curiosity, I went back to your original post to read the comments. Very interesting to see the insights from some commenters that far away from the election.
Although I regularly read the comments here and the other dozen or so blogs I read everyday, I rarely latch on to commenter’s names. Are most of the commenters from 2015 still here? @frog deserves some sort of commendation for his/her post.
As long as the ecconomy is strong and we avoid another major, violent confrontation; Trump should be in good shape leading up to November, 2020. The extreme policies of the left will help in the effort to take back the House.
At first I liked Trump because he was not Hillary, one judicial appointment was worth my vote and now I too kind of like Trump, he has exceeded my expectation many times over. I am now at the point where his tweets don’t bother me and I kind of understand they are not pointless, nutty stuff, they work.
There is a good chance the next election will be a grand slam, out of the ball park home run for Trump because the Democrats are trying to out left each other and seem to be contemptuous of the middle and hate and despise us folk on the right. I am also thinking that Republicans in the large blue states who votes did not matter in the past might show up this time to help Trump get both the electoral votes and a majority.
And it’s not just comedy, by any means—it’s that Trump isn’t boring. Most politicians, even the better ones, are often very very boring. They drone on. They talk jargon in voices that threaten to become (and often do become) monotonous.
The New Republic, Fall 1984, “Most voters, we imagine, were baffled by his [Mondale’s] references to ‘the CBO’ and ‘Urban Development Action Grants’ (at least he didn’t say ‘UDAG grant’)”.
I didn’t think at the time Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, or Michael Dukakis were particularly admirable examples of genus ‘public servant’. They were two cuts above what the Democratic Party took to serving us later. Miss ’em.
Not all the democrats are out to “out left” each other, which is why the establishment, and if the polls are correct, most dems for far, are favoring Biden, who’s running as the “moderate”. What it may ultimately come down two this election is which candidate says or does something stupid closer to election day. Expect, of course, the media working its tail off in burying Biden’s gaffs and promoting the Donald’s.
I was a Cruz supporter, volunteered for his campaigns here in Iowa and Nevada. I voted for Trump because he was not hrc. Like GB, I appreciate that he has followed up on his campaign promises. The jumpstart of the economy, pushing back against China, etc. Dislike some of his rhetoric, but thoroughly enjoy how he lives in the heads of the left 24\7, has the ability to keep the msm spinning conspiracy theories, and not being hrc.
Brio1111:
“Frog” is indeed still here, but under another name. Unless he decides to reveal himself, I’ll keep that name quiet.
Quite a few of those commenters are still here, but some are not.
Trump has adapted over time. At first, there was no TelePrompTer. Now he uses the TelePrompTer, but he adds stuff.
I was raised in a family of politicians and was a politician myself. (I’m the only one, far as I know, who became a conservative Republican though, thanks to the Overton Window).
I never believed for one second that Trump would lose because it’s rare for a politician (Hillary) to recover from a major race loss, let alone two. Voters may not recognize it but it’s a very real factor for a candidate. Voters have a subliminal reluctance to vote FOR a candidate when they have voted AGAINST that candidate in a prior election. Nixon was an exception but there were other factors in play in 68 and 72. He was a political phenomenon and the Democrats badly misread the national mood.
Barring economic collapse, Trump should handily win 2020, hopefully in a landslide that will force Democrats to engage in the autopsy that should have been undertaken after their last debacle.
Two things I think many may miss when considering the 2020 election…
1. Trump not only beat Hillary, he also beat the GOPe and the MSM.
In the 2020 election, the GOPe is mostly already dismantled (remember all those retirements pre-midterms?) and the MSM has been knocked down very heavily in its ability to influence (Fake News!).
This time, Trump’s only opponent will be the dem he’s running against.
2. The dems running are happy if they can get a few hundred to show up for one of their shindigs.
Trump still pulls thousands to his. It was said in a meme, but it’s actually fair accurate, that there’s more people waiting in line for the restrooms at a Trump rally than the total number of attendees at any of the others.
And, as a bonus, news of Biden’s son and the Ukraine and other shenanigans are just starting to hit the streets. Biden might not even be available to run for POTUS by 2020. And remember, the Mueller ‘Investigation’ just ended. The dems haven’t had the opportunity to feel any of the pain from that yet. Who knows what the political landscape is going to look like by January.
I too was a Cruz supporter, with some Scott Walker interest thrown in.
But Ted Cruz, pre-beard, was a man with a desperately unlikeable face. (Perhaps it’s more about the distasteful expressions than the face itself, although, I dunno…that nose ain’t a winner.)
So, I never thought he’d win. I was just following the guy who, on paper, seemed to back my ideas on policy and judges most consistently. I assumed he’d be nominated, then beaten pretty badly by Hillary, because no matter how smart he was or how thoroughly he destroyed Hillary in debates, most Americans weren’t willing to vote for a guy whose face made you want to punch him a lot.
I didn’t consider Trump because I assumed he’d govern leftward of any other candidate save Pataki or maybe Kasich. After all, he’d spent most of his life as a New York Liberal, hadn’t he?
Sure, he gave stump-speeches that sounded more-right-leaning, some of the time. But I figured his speeches were a dishonest sell-job, telling people what they wanted to hear. (To this day, I think he says what he says to produce a useful reaction in the public, not because anything he says describes what he believes true about the world. I’m pretty confident he is not a man who verbally reveals his inner self.)
But once it was down to Trump and Hillary, the math was pretty easy.
Hillary was Death Of The Republic bad. Given how over-the-top the left has been after losing, I can only assume that, had they won, they’d have pushed too far: Trying to outlaw privately-owned firearms and compelling churches to conduct “marriages” for homosexual couples, or something similar. (Hell, they’d already, under Obama, pulled that Fast and Furious stunt, while persecuting nuns for not subsidizing contraceptives!) And Hillary lacks the sense of caution and finesse of Obama. She would miscalculate, paint herself into a corner. A shooting civil war wasn’t impossible.
And anyway, what sane person wanted to listen to that grating voice, that mad cackle, that demeaning, pander-tastic affected drawl in front of black audiences, for four or eight years?!
Against that, you had The Donald.
The Donald! An immoral cad, but all-in-all less of a villain than Hillary. A blowhard, but after years of brimming over with the desire to exhaustively fisk every Obama speech, from the legions of straw-men to the pontifical posturing, a crass bloviator seemed like sweet relief. A bit of a con-man in some of his business deals, but holy crap, does that pale in comparison to the bones rattling around in the Clintons’ prior business affairs.
Better yet, I reasoned that Hillary would be surrounded by a cadre of grasping power-mongers to the left of herself; whereas The Donald would be surrounded by a pretty respectable crowd of conservatives and classical liberals who’d spend half their time trying to get the boss to Tone It Down. Personnel is policy; it matters whom the president enables.
And then there was The Press.
I knew that the MSM would simply serve as enablers to every crooked thing Hillary did. Nothing negative about her would see daylight. As the saying goes: “The news business is all about covering the important stories. With a pillow, until they stop moving.”
Whereas, with Trump, they’d be up his alimentary canal with an electron microscope every microsecond of the day. Setting aside how that might prevent him doing anything financially shady without having it shouted from the rooftop, it occurred to me that it might even have a beneficial impact on his family: These might be the most consistently-chaste eight years of Trump’s entire adult life!
And finally, Hillary would give us all leftist judges. Trump might give us something better than that.
So I went with Trump.
And man, oh, man am I happy with the results.
Oh, sure, he’s still a blowhard. Oh, sure, I find the sillier tweets distasteful.
But c’mon now. Things are way better than I thought they might be. They’re better than any of us had a right to expect. If you’d told me, on election day, that he’d not only win, but what his list of accomplishments would be by May 2019, and in the face of what kind of opposition, I’d have dragged you off to rehab.
I still think he might turn on us, mind you. Once reelected, who knows what his priorities might be?
But, at this point, the chances that he’d become anything worse than what’s being promised by the rightmost Democrat are slim-to-none.
In for a penny, in for a pound. Trump 2020!
Thanks for a great summary, RC! “Immoral cad” on that private, sexual alpha-male not quite monogamous way which the Dems claimed, under Clinton’s perjury, was merely private sex.
Christians had no real Christian to vote for, but Hillary is anti-Christian, so I was NeverHillary. I wanted first Carly Fiorina, then Ted Cruz, but expected to lose, hopefully win. Yet I wasn’t so bad on Trump. It always seemed that the Dem media would take something he said, cut out just a few words, say he meant something else, and then say how terrible that “something else” was. But it wasn’t really what he said.
Notice the Trump critics still don’t have clear tweets or paragraphs that are as cringeworthy as Hillary’s “deplorables” comment. Looking more at Hillary’s comment, she really meant it about all who vote Trump. Looking more at Trump’s “good people on both sides” quote, the expanded context is clear he means those who want to keep the statues, not the neo-nazis, who is actually does condemn. Dem media, mis-quoting him, Fake News.
I’ll now be surprised if Trump doesn’t win in 2020, and expect a very good shot of him getting a House and Senate with more Trump Reps.
In any case, there has been huge entertainment value. Also on this blog.
Trum is ok. He hasnt killed leftists or ordered them purged, thus no reason for me to back him.
Alt right kept trying to imply that everyone against their god emperor trum was a cuck, e conservative, gop e, or never t weakling. Kids throwing a temper tantrum isnt gonna bring down evil. That requires getting blood on your hands.
I’m with several commenters above in my “Trump Journey” – from disbelief to “hmm, interesting, he wants to end illegal immigration” to “this guy is starting to impress me” to “I love this list of judges” to “okay I’m in, anything is better than Hillary but he’s probably got an impossible task” to being absolutely stunned on Nov 8-9 when his win came in.
He’s done WAY better than I ever imagined. He’s obviously cut from different cloth than Reagan but his policies are similar in that they put Americans first in any discussion, which is for me such an obvious starting point and makes me question the loyalties of those who argue against it. His MAGA slogan captured this emotional connection perfectly. Whose interests is he supposed to represent if not the salt-of-the-earth American people? That’s what, and who, America is.
Re: his tweets and sometimes grating style, I understand the concern there, but it’s a distraction that conservatives must learn to avoid. I myself have never been too concerned about style and surface appeal – because it’s noise that means nothing in the long run.
Have to vent a bit here. “Sure I like his most of his policies but why can’t he be nicer, and his tweets are stupid and mean!” is a dumb criticism. We are in a war against the Left. Stop bitching about trivialities and get behind the only guy who’s willing to take the fight to them. And what benefit has that concern about behavior ever brought conservatives in the past? Nothing. It’s a distraction while the Left slowly undermines and destroys our way of life.
Winning is quite literally all that matters. People who don’t get this are sitting out the fight, and are therefore on the other side (“objectively pro-Fascist” as Orwell put it), fighting against you, your family, your kids’ future. We need more people to understand this.
You know that thing (I hesitate to call it a “study” without going back to find it) that came out indicating that conservatives were motivated most by disgust (which gets elided with fear)? I’ve been thinking about that a lot since Trump took office. So much of the hatred of him is stated in terms of disgust: his spray tan (a la Real Housewives of NJ), his weird hair (must be a bad rug, because if it’s real, what even is it?), his girth (look how fat he is – from the people who brought us Body Positivity), his colloquialisms (from the people who say “y’all” to Black audiences only), his crudity (I don’t think anyone here needs an illustration of “from the people who” about that), his accent. Is it, therefore, an example if that adage that everyone is conservative about what they know best? And politics is the home ground of the Left? I don’t know. But it’s surprised me for the years now that the ONE criticism you NEVER see leveled at The Donald is the “traitor” one (okay, not talking about the Russian thing here) – that he was in fact a New York liberal and a Democrat for so long, but has changed his political stripes for personal aggrandizement. Ds in Congress or governor’s mansions who change parties to become Rs are vilified. Why not Trump?
(Obviously because they want to distance themselves from him. I know. But it’s, like, the one valid critique they’d have.)
I agree with Jeff Brokaw. His personality quirks are secondary, or maybe tertiary, issues. What I think of is Donald Rumsfeld saying, “You go to war with the army you have.” We’re in a war to save the republic. He’s the general we’ve got. He’s doing amazingly well. My advice to Congressional Republicans is to quit complaining and work with him.
this thread has actually bled into most all beliefs, even those that claim not, that they cant imagine “in these dirty times” such men exist… well, duh, they always exist, and they are always disliked, and they always draw fire onto themselves, and they always prevail on some level mysterious to the incognosenti of the left.
This reminds me.
“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as ‘bad luck’.”
– Robert A. Heinlein
We are having a run of good luck right now.
I would be happy to see a landslide next year but I worry about vote fraud.
File under “Stuff Donald Trump Knows, like, Tanstaafl”: Cuba starts widespread rationing of food and other basics
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cuba-food-shortage-rationing-1.5132297
“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
This is known as ‘bad luck’.”
Heinlein is confused. ‘Poverty’ as the term is most commonly used refers not to an absolute standard of living but to a relative one. ‘The poor you will have with you always’ was not uttered during the 19th c. Age of Progress, but in 1st c. Judea.
You’ve had in the past advances and declines in the standard of living consequent to technological innovation and process improvements on the one hand and social and political breakdown on the other. A fine example in historical time would be the economic implosion of much of Europe during the period running from the mid-3d century to the mid-7th century. I really don’t think you can attribute it to the expulsion of some hated population of geniuses. There were instances during the Medieval period of European countries expelling their Jewish population. It’s possible that Spain (after 1492) and Britain (after 1292) suffered losses for throwing away human capital. I don’t think Heinlein’s going to locate an economic historian who will advance the thesis that the injury to these countries was so severe as to constitute a ‘lapse into abject poverty’ as the term ‘poverty’ would have been understood during the Medieval period or the Renaissance.
Heinlein seems to be inspired by 20th century events, the ‘throughout history’ flourish notwithstanding – the Communist countries and African states with colonial populations or middlemen minorities.
And no, human capital isn’t locked up in some tiny crew of geniuses. It adheres to all of us to one degree or another. And everyone who innovates is drawing on an already established body of technical knowledge to which others have added to in small increments.
Art Deco:
You are getting close to blasphemy questioning the genius of Heinlien, thanks for saying it.
Like many others here I started out as a “reluctant Trumper”. But even in my early phase of skepticism I noted two things:
1) I dismissed out of hand the scare talk, “Hitler/Mussolini/authoritarian”. It just didn’t make any sense to me.
2) I saw he was striking a very deep nerve with the voting public. Even if he didn’t make it himself, I thought, these issues he surfaced were not going away
Nevertheless I was stunned when he won. And equally stunned by the way he won, flipping Midwest industrial states that had been voting Democrat for generations. Even now I don’t think this has been fully assimilated. Shortly I after the election I read about a Democrat meeting or rally where Joe Kennedy III – who could be more mainstream Democrat than a Kennedy? – said, “We’ve got to figure out why all these longtime Democrats voted for Trump” and he was booed. Two and a half years later and their denial has only gotten worse.
For the most part I’ve been happy with the Trump presidency and obviously he has been infinitely better than Clinton but the tweeting continues to drive me nuts. I don’t mind some of the sillier stuff or even the Mueller tweets because I see a purpose in them but some issues are too big and effect too many people to be using that forum to comment.
Prime example is his tweets about the China trade deal. I think they only confuse the matter as they lead the Chinese to draw conclusions that may or may not correct and probably contradicts what is being said in negotiations. And finally they cause havoc with the market which is not healthy.
Sometimes staying quiet is the proper path and he has done that on some issues I wish he would do that with China.
Art Deco on May 10, 2019 at 5:39 pm at 5:39 pm said:
…I didn’t think at the time Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, or Michael Dukakis were particularly admirable examples of genus ‘public servant’. They were two cuts above what the Democratic Party took to serving us later. Miss ’em.
Tom Grey on May 11, 2019 at 4:13 am at 4:13 am said:
Thanks for a great summary, RC! “Immoral cad” on that private, sexual alpha-male not quite monogamous way which the Dems claimed, under Clinton’s perjury, was merely private sex.
* * *
At a few points in the last 10 years, I even found myself missing Bill.
That’s how bad the Democrats have gotten.
Trump’s massive effect on the Left & the MSMs alone is WONDERFUL!!!
Art Deco –
If you don’t like Heinlein’s use of “poverty” as different from how it’s used today, try substituting “scarcity”. That’s not relative.