The latest jobs report is out
And the news is very very good:
Job growth blew past expectations in October and year-over-year wage gains jumped past 3 percent for the first time since the Great Recession, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls powered up by 250,000 for the month, well ahead of Refinitiv estimates of 190,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7 percent, the lowest since December 1969.
“The job market is doing remarkably well, particularly this late in the expansion,” said Jim Baird, partner and chief investment officer for Plante Moran Financial Advisors. “This report adds yet another data point to a narrative that has been positive for the labor market this year. Little seems to stand in the way of the economy finishing 2018 out on solid footing.”
I wonder if it will matter in terms of Tuesday’s election.
The midterms for the House ought to be a slam dunk for Republicans, given the excellent jobs situation. The fact that it doesn’t seem that’s true says a lot about how people are influenced by ideology instead of evidence.
However, I’m not sure that the polls are giving us an accurate picture of how things will look next Wednesday morning.
many democrats were incredulous that so many voters hated hillary clinton. same here you can’t understand why so many democrats hate trump and republicans even with a good economy. try to understand this 6 million democrats ( 3 million black democrats ) didn’t go out and vote because they told pollsters hillary was to moderate. another million democrats voted for jill stein for same reason. jill stein voters were why trump carried michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. trumps margin in all three states were less then her votes. democrats have been waiting for two years to vote against trump and the republicans.
One thing it will mean is that Dems will take an early lead, until the people with jobs get out of work and go vote, resulting in a late push for Repubs.
The fact that it doesn’t seem that’s true says a lot about how people are influenced by ideology instead of evidence.
or how the reporting is reporting something they want to happen, to cause it to happen.. ie who wants to vote for a loser so if they all think X is winning..
The celebrity pollsters have been backing away from the blue wave and even trying to come down so that, if the House stays R, possibly with added seats, they don’t look like the jackasses they did 2 years ago.
With that in mind, the jobs report may be just one more push over the finish line.
Kate on November 2, 2018 at 4:23 pm at 4:23 pm said:
The midterms for the House ought to be a slam dunk for Republicans, given the excellent jobs situation. The fact that it doesn’t seem that’s true says a lot about how people are influenced by ideology instead of evidence.
* * *
Or influenced by “fake news” instead of evidence.
They can’t vote on the facts if they never hear about them.
Artfldgr is correct also, for some people; the media always tries to spin early voting to influence the Democrats to come out and the Republicans to stay home (they don’t even try to hide their partisanship anymore).
Windbag: I have seen people advising GOP voters to not vote early, because then the Dems won’t know how many fraudulent ballots they need to find in somebody’s car trunk.
If I could make one new law for elections, it would be that all paper ballots have to be counted in the building where they are cast, and nothing found afterwards can be used — with some safeguards for the case of poll workers “losing” the votes for the opposition because of that rule. Really, though, whatever the rules, cheaters gonna find some way to cheat.
AesopFan: Couldn’t agree with you more about very narrow time/place/manner restrictions, with one exception:
There does have to be some mechanism by which the military and other governmental personnel abroad can vote. And, I think, bona fide American citizens abroad also. But these do pose problems. Vote only by snail-mail, and only if posted to some official vote-counting station I suppose…?)
Of course, There’s never jam today. Also, Murphy as properly stated: “Something will go wrong.”
You better believe I will be voting! On Nov. 6, at the designated polling place, latish in the day. :>)
Given the track record of polls the last few years why do folks pay any attention to them? They may as well randomly choose their predictions.
Voting should be difficult as to time and place – not made easier. That would winnow out the ill-informed, weakly motivated voters. Only military members deployed in foreign places should be allowed absentee ballots. Early voting should be illegal. All ballots should be of the paper form and, as mentioned above, counted in the same place they are cast.
The North Carolina legislature tried to reduce the number of early voting days, and the 4th Circuit ruled it was “racist” to do so. It also ruled that asking for an ID is “racist” in North Carolina, although my daughter living in Virginia has to show her ID, and that’s not racist in Virginia. All politics, not logic.
I believe absentee rules here allow for abuse, since a request can have the state send a ballot anywhere. They should be sent only to the registered address. And I think there’s a lot of fraud here at the early voting sites, since an ID is no longer required.
Warning:
It isn’t good for the long-term economic health of the country when Unemployment goes below 4-5 percent. About five percent of the “workforce” are persons who are unemployable, meaning that they are that stupid or can’t follow instructions or get along with other employees. Employment below 5 percent means that companies are scraping the bottom of the barrel in hiring staff.
The overt symptoms of this condition are when you see that employees of fast-food restaurants are often unable to make change correctly. And, when the quality of service at all points of contact with the public begins to deteriorate.
But it is the non-overt symptoms that are more worrisome. Workers who are not yet ready get promoted to supervisory positions. Professionals with little experience are placed in managerial positions. Along the entire management chain, you will see positions filled with people who are not quite qualified.
Over time, this will result in a general degradation of the quality of the goods and services produced in the U.S., such as we saw in the late nineties. We will also see an increase in industrial accidents.
We need to make sure we do not allow the economy to overheat. However, it would be good time to start reducing public payrolls, since the private sector is in a good position to absorb the “downsized” employees.
Roy Nathanson — Those unemployment figures represent only the proportion of people actively looking for work who are unemployed. The Labor Force Participation Rate is a much better measure: it counts all those over 16 years of age. Right now it is only 62.9%. Even counting those who are physically unable to work, the disabled, stay-at-home parents, the elderly, etc., we still have a long, long way to go before scraping the bottom of the barrel.