The Trump/Kim document
Here’s the text of the document both Trump and Kim signed in Singapore.
As expected, it is general and breaks no new ground whatsoever. The ground-breaking aspects were the meeting between the two and the visuals, and we have no idea whether that will lead to a positive change, no change at all, or advantage Kim.
Interesting times. But jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
[NOTE: The quote in that last sentence is usually attributed to Churchill. But apparently he didn’t say that, at least not exactly:
Winston Churchill’s official biographer, Sir Martin Gilbert, speaking of this quote, noted that Churchill actually said, ”˜Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war.’ Four years later, during a visit to Australia, Harold Macmillan said the words usually””and wrongly””attributed to Churchill: “Jaw, jaw is better than war, war.” Credit: Harold Macmillan.
And here’s a link to an interview with Trump. A lot of talk about what a great guy Kim is, which I think is some sort of tactic rather than what Trump really thinks.
We’ll see…]
I am afraid we lost this one. I have been dealing with the NORKs my entire professional life. And one of their highest goals was to force us to the table.
Maybe my bad. I can’t forget about the Cheonan. And the Pueblo.
‘Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war.’
How well did that work out for Chamberlain? My point being that either both sides have to be willing to compromise or… it has to be made crystal clear to the aggressor that a failure to reach an accommodation will result in intolerable consequence for the aggressor.
I agree that Trump’s talk about what a great guy Kim is, is some sort of tactic.
I suspect the tactic is political. Trump is neutralizing any future accusations that he didn’t give diplomacy every chance to succeed.
IMO, I think it most likely that Kim is playing for the time needed to break the final technological barriers to full nuclear ICBM capability.
Our position has always been first they make peace, then we talk.
Steve57,
Do you agree that the N. Korean society is obsessively driven by the societal imperative to achieve reunification of Korea under the North? And by any means necessary?
Do you believe that their near fanatical pursuit of nuclear ICBM capability is driven by fear of a US invasion?
Do you believe that China’s support for the Nork’s pursuit of nuclear ICBM capability, involves no strategic motivation for China?
Yes, Mr. Britain, it’s all pure politics. And it’s wrong from our end.
“it’s all pure politics. And it’s wrong from our end.” Steve57
Please clarify with a bit more specificity Steve.
I don’t understand your point, Mr. Britain. I’m a simple man. Please make it plain. What I believe about North Korea is that it’s a prison state. I despise that to the marrow of my bones. The whole country. Then there’s the gulag system. A prison inside a prison. It’s very existence is an affront to the my being. And they remain in possession of they Pueblo. I really want to fix that.
Have I made myself plain?
Sorry for not making myself clear. We are still at war with North Korea, de jure and de facto. They first need to negotiate a peace treaty.
“Trump Agrees to Stop U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises, Says He Trusts ‘Very Talented’ Kim”
No way does Trump actually trust Kim but appearing to naively do so is politically useful, as it strengthens the perception that Trump is utterly sincere and NOT a ‘knee-jerk’ “war monger”.
As a sign of sincerity, (temporarily) stopping the US/S. Korean military exercises is a useful gambit for Trump to offer Kim.
Now the ball is in Kim’s court. IF he fails to offer in return a meaningful concession… Trump can start back up the US/S. Korean military exercises.
Trump can now respond to any future criticism that he did all he could to give diplomacy a chance… having directly negotiated with Kim.
If these talks lead to a peace treaty I’m for it. But that’s not the direction I see it going.
I agree with Neo’s observations. I think the rubber will hit the road when and if the Norks start disassembling and destroying their launch vehicles. Nuclear weapons are less threatening when they lack a delivery system.
Another vote here for Trump’s flattery of Kim as a tactic. It wasn’t so long ago that he was calling Kim Rocket Man, and that was a tactic too. I guess we’ll see. Nothing else has worked with the NK dictatorship, so I’m willing to give Trump some leeway and hope for the best.
QI don’t understand why he agreed to the OTT flag display, though. Why give the flag of a repellent police state equal prominence with the US flag in that manner? They should have kept it simple..one flag each. IMHO.
It is beneath the dignity of an American President to negotiate directly with a foreign potentate. That’s what Pompeo is for.
Steve57,
Let me be equally plain. I fully agree with your stated perception of N. Korea.
If the political will and societal consensus existed in the US (which it does NOT), I would support the US issuing N. Korea an ultimatum demanding immediate and verifiable nuclear disarmament.
That would immediately bring the Chinese into the confrontation, which I believe to be necessary. As, it’s far better to confront an adversary on your terms and time and place than upon theirs.
As the political will and societal consensus to confront the Norks and Chinese does not exist and will not until our backs are against the wall… Trump is doing the best that he can do. All we can do is pray that it will be enough.
“It is beneath the dignity of an American President to negotiate directly with a foreign potentate. That’s what Pompeo is for.” Steve57
Normally yes but IMO, it’s gone too far for normal diplomatic overtures. Only direct negotiations between both leaders has any chance at peaceful resolution. Obviously, I give it little chance given what I believe to be the societal imperatives for both N. Korea and China. I do pray that I’m being overly pessimistic and in error as to the actual motivations of the Norks and Chinese.
The key to the whole process is the verification aspect. Those details are not known at this time. To quote one on the best NextGen episodes, “Shaka, when the walls fell, his eyes wide open.” which is how our eyes need to be.
My take is more optimistic.
Trump has NOT turned off the sanctions regime.
They are a true threat to Kim.
For, because of his father’s grand policy suite, he is COMPELLED to keep offering IMPORTED luxury gifts to his cabal.
You can go to YouTube and watch a video that lays this all out.
The dope comes from a fellow that actually ran the gratitude-gift system.
It’s straight out of Oskar Schindler, BTW.
For the most part, the gifts have to come from Europe or America.
Red China just won’t do.
Pyongyang maintains a buying office in Austria dedicated to this task.
Its outlays are astonishing — compared to the NK economy.
The best estimate is that this gift engine consumes 35% of all NK state expenditures — hidden from sight in a parallel banking regime.
Trump’s sanctions are fouling this whole scheme up.
Kim dares not back off this ‘giving.’ It’s his ‘life insurance.’
So something has to give: missiles or life insurance.
Geoffrey, may I call you Geoffrey? I fully appreciate the complications. I also know the Chinese don’t want South Korea on the Yalu. Got it. But I don’t have to like it.
Well, the naysayers will say “nay”, the optimists will say “yay”, and the realists will say “let’s see”.
A lot can be said; a lot has been said; a lot will be said. In my opinion, all that should be said at the moment is that this is a step; a positive one.
Some think that Trump’s lust for a deal will hurt us–as though Trump is Obama II. I don’t think that John Bolton or Mike Pompeo would go along if they thought so. As long as they are on the team, I will assume that Trump is listening to them, and each step is taken with a clear eye.
Trump’s rhetoric sometimes worries people, me included. My wife was shocked that he said nice things about the “Little Rocket Man”. I suggested to her that those words were meaningless. He couldn’t fly to Singapore and insult Kim.
Others are criticizing that he did not make an issue of human rights. Thank goodness, he did not lose sight of the crucial issue. If this process is successful, other important issues can be broached in due time.
To state the obvious, it will be a long road, with many twists and turns. I am glad that Trump set us on the road. I choose to trust that he will navigate it with prudent caution.
Tried to amend my post with this thought but ran out of time.
Folks make assumptions about the state of Kim’s regime, and his resolve. Some of these mirror the ones about the Soviets, East Germans, et al in the ’70s and ’80s. But, steady pressure affected those seemingly intractable entities until they were forced into changing. (I know that some will respond, “Putin”, but anyone who was around during the Cold War knows that present day Russia is a shadow of the power behind the Iron Curtain.)
We can speculate, but we cannot know the pressures on Kim. We do know that the trip to Singapore was a bigger step for him than it was for Trump.
In Neo’s earlier post (“[E]ye of the beholder”), I noted that I had skimmed the G7 Communique, and found that it was 4,096 words of repetitious blather, which will accomplish nothing, other than allowing four members to signal their virtue and self-importance.
I then followed Neo’s link to the text of the Trump/Kim agreement, and found it was a mere 394 words, and while the document was not particularly specific, the fact that it was signed, and the identity of the signatories, was momentous.
As to Trump’s compliments about Chairman Kim, “It’s amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.” ~ Harry S. Truman (with whom Trump was compared in a recent essay by Victor Davis Hanson).
I disagree Oldflyer. After the last 8 years of cowardice the brinksmanship made was necessary. Mandatory. It would have worried more if he hadn’t used the command voice.
oldflyer
We don’t really have to speculate.
Insiders have already flatly told us that Kim’s expenditures on gifts are ASTOUNDING.
This gift-machine is quite unlike anything seen in any other society on Earth.
It’s really impossible to wrap one’s mind around.
You need to see the video footage.
Kim is COMPELLED to give — relentlessly — every day of the year — pretty much.
These hand-outs are part and parcel of his crew’s compensation package. He CAN’T shut them off.
In American terms, it would be as if Trump routinely gave away 757 jet airliners as tokens of his affection. (!!!)
These astounding gifts are PERSONALLY given away by Kim.
This giving-machine has no equal in the entire Communist world, nor anywhere else, I must add.
It’s the reason why the Koreans are giddy with delight in all of the video footage you see. He just got through giving the crowd an endless sequence of toys and goodies; which may include a furnished apartment in down town Pyongyang.
When I tell you that 35% of the national budget is spent on them, you simply can’t believe it.
But, you should.
Our source RAN the operation. He’s even pointed out the exact building that houses Kim’s private bank, and all the rest.
This parallel, private, ‘royal’ economy is not to be found in any official statistics.
Oldflyer,
Some of the pressures on Kim probably include his age. He wants to survive for a long time (40 to 50 years). Many of his most likely enemies are probably older, so if he can make some breakthroughs to the young, that would help him.
Another thing is that more and more info about the quality of life elsewhere is probably getting through via slave workers in China, defector relatives in the south, and smuggled smart phones that can find connections on the Chinese border.
I also think that Kim really like western pop culture and he probably thinks it would appeal to lots of younger people. He would probably be happy if he grandfather continued to be revered, but he might prefer his legacy to be things like electricity, pop music, movies, and plenty of food.
Getting Mr. Un to sit down with an American POTUS in Singapore was a political victory for djt. I find it interesting that Trump showed Un his heavily armored limo. I think that airlifting one to Pyongyang will be one of the items Un will ask for. He also needs consumer luxuries to keep his henchmen happy.
RPNK is a barbaric sh*thole, but human rights issues take a back seat to the possibility of ending the nuclear/ICBM program. Trump is not like his predecessors and the Norks, if they are not all brain dead, realize djt is not a sucker born yesterday.
I am mildly optimistic. The added bonus is watching the talking heads twist like a swarm of eels dropped into a barrel of salt
“Getting Mr. Un to sit down with an American POTUS in Singapore was a political victory for djt.Getting Mr. Un to sit down with an American POTUS in Singapore was a political victory for djt.”
We shall see. You could be right.
If I am wrong, I will happily say I’m wrong.
Too many lives have been taken.
Steve57,
I was never #NEVERTRUMP, I supported and volunteered for the Cruz campaign and I still want to see him be POTUS. But I voted for Trump because I definitely did not want the shrew queen as POTUS.
I am happy with The Donald.so far. He’s definitely a horse of a different color as president, I thoroughly enjoy watching the leftists go bat guano crazy over everything he says or does.
I think the Byron York column today sums it up best. This was a president trying a new approach to a problem that has affected a dozen presidents before him going back to Truman. How effective it will be only time will tell but it seems like a worthy endeavor to me.
And he has a telling quote from Trump about the rhetoric (Little Rocket Man and the like) and feeling foolish doing it but feeling it needed to be done.
I remember when folks here had a conniption fit because Obama appeared to bow to the Saudi king. But no problem at all when Trump says a murderous dictator is beloved by his people with great fervor and has a great personality and is very smart.
Good times.
I spent 20 years in the Navy, Where were you? I don’t recall seeing you. I also don’t recall almost going to war with the Saudis. Maybe that’s the difference. Maybe we should have gone to war with the Saudis. Not my call. And we no longer send unarmed vessels into harms way. But I swear to the Almighty that if the NORKs fire upon me there will be h#ll to pay.
Maybe you can see a difference, maybe you can’t.
My parish preist captured 11 NORKs at the point of his .45. If you have any tales to tell like that about the Saudis I’d love to hear about them.
That’s the one war I must have missed in the past half century, Ann. When was it?
Ann,
If you can not tell the difference between bho and djt it is rather hopeless that you will ever understand why you got Trump.
BTW, I didnt’t fight in the Korean war. But I did spend enough time serving in Korea to qualify for the VFW. Camp Casey. 2nd ID. Second to none.
“There are all sorts of things you have to do in foreign policy, to get along in the world. To lessen tensions and prevent war. You have to hold your nose and deal with beasts. But you don’t have to tell outrageous and insulting lies, and you don’t have to break faith with American values, and human values. If you’re president, the whole world hears you – and that can include the boys in the camps [North Korean gulag].” –Jay Nordlinger today at NRO.
I was Seventh Fleet.
Well, Ann, maybe its because Trump is negotiating with an enemy (an Asian Enemy, who needs Face to be able to return home and not be assassinated by the people he has to keep bought off) and not going on a Its All America’s Fault Tour ’09.
Obama stood to gain nothing (except what ever personal wealth he accumulated in graft) from traveling the world and issuing Mea Culpas to all of the ingrates for saving all of their hides in various wars and such.
Instead, he bowed to signal to certain parties that A) He knew who the boss was and B) He was ready, willing and loobed to take it up the pooper. All in the interests of Peacemaking *cough* Selling Us Out *cough*.
If you can’t see the difference between what Barak Obama did and what Donald Trump did, there’s truly no help for you.
None.
What outrageous lies have I told? What lies at all?
CapnRusty,
That’s a great Truman quote! I had never heard that one.
It is fun to read these threads and follow the zigs and zags.
Steve57, I am sorry, but I had a little trouble following your chain of thought. I completely missed it if someone accused you of lying. But, I think you said you were in the 2nd ID, and then in the 7th Fleet. Both?
Ann, people really should not get too hung up on post-summit rhetoric. It is like jousting with smoke. There is a goal here, and it is an important one. If publicly stroking the ego of a possible megalomaniac furthers that goal, so be it. I am not a mental health professional, but I sense that Kim needs to be wooed, as well as threatened.
For better, or worse, Kim is the man that Trump must deal with at the moment. At, at this point it is far better to deal with a stable regime led by him, than with chaos. That is particularly true, if the NORKS do indeed have nukes and a reliable delivery mechanism.
I think Trump has wrapped L’il Kim around his finger. Kim has two goals: 1) stay in power; and 2) get more stuff. He is willing to do anything to attain those goals, and Trump will give them to him if he de-nukes. I think the little FF will.
I also think Trump has got China boxed as well. As I said many moons ago, what Trump needs to say is “Nice little trade surplus with the U.S. you’ve got there, Mr. Xi. Be a shame if anything happened to it.”
That’s what the ZTE episode was all about. That trade is much more important to China than it is to us. We can turn it off, we can turn it on. When we turned it off for just one company, Xi had to call Trump personally and beg him to turn it back on. Bingo!
“All sorts of things…”
Like giving the tyrants of Iran 1.6 billion on pallets? Like turning Libya in a sh*thole for terrorists and the mass invasion of Western Europe? Like the southern border invasion by MS13 and the DACA hordes filling the dem’s voter rolls?
Those sorts of things?
Or how about Uranium One? The list is endless.
Oldflyer, I never intended to imply that I was both Seventh Fleet and Second ID. I’m Navy blue. What I meant was that as a Navy guy I spent enough time with the ground pounders to earn membership in the VFW.
But I did it all Navy.
It’s a Joint World and all.
https://olive-drab.com/od_history_ww2_stories_1944rangerspointeduhoc.php
The USN. Proudly supporting the ground pounders since, what? 1803?
https://www.usni.org/magazines/navalhistory/2015-04/landing-troops-across-rhine
I was not in the 2nd Id. I just had business to attend to.
” A lot of talk about what a great guy Kim is, which I think is some sort of tactic rather than what Trump really thinks.”
Ya think? With Trump there is always another punch line coming.
If I were President Air Force One would be an AC-130.
physicsguy said:
One of the most galling things about the “Iran deal” is that there is no possibility of verification. Iran was supposed to come clean about all aspects of its nuclear program to establish a baseline.
They never did. Obama insisted that we should not push Iran on that point. But without a baseline there’s no way for regulators to know if they’re cheating. Which is of course why Iran refused.
The remarkable thing to me is that after Israel revealed that Iran lied, Obama apologists demurred that the “deal” was based upon verification. Not trust. But any reasonably sane, intelligent human being can determine that since we didn’t force Iran to establish a baseline for their nuclear program, including identifying all sites involved in the effort, verification is impossible.
What worries me is that some commentators are claiming that the Iran “deal” should be the model for denuclearizing the NORKs. I’m sure that’s exactly what li’l Kim is hoping for.
Ann:
But no problem at all when Trump says a murderous dictator is beloved by his people with great fervor and has a great personality and is very smart.
Do I understand it that YOU have a problem with Trump’s flattering Kim, who without a doubt IS a murderous dictator?
Nothing happened, so there’s nothing to talk about. At least nobody died. Symbolism? I gotta bridge for ya.