Austin Bay on Trump and the Koreas
Austin Bay on Trump and the two Koreas. Here’s a sample:
In March 2017, Trump’s foreign policy team of then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Vice President Mike Pence and the tweeter-in-chief himself began a coordinated attack on Kim Jong Un’s miserable regime, with the interim goals of disrupting Pyongyang’s political and military plans, exposing the regime’s grave weaknesses, psychologically rattling its leader, and determining if the plump brat was educable or merely a homicidal fat rat dead set on his own extermination. Team Trump’s ultimate goal was to set conditions for achieving the long-range goal: denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.
On March 17, 2017, Tillerson said: “Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended. We are exploring a new range of diplomatic, security, economic measures. All options are on the table.”
Bay describes some of the details.
Trump will never get credit from the MSM for any of this if it works out. If it doesn’t (which is a distinct possibility, considering who we’re dealing with in Kim) he will most definitely get the blame.
I’ll tell you one thing: it it does work out well, or even somewhat well, he’ll certainly get credit from me. I’m with Lindsay Graham on this:
“Donald Trump convinced North Korea and China he was serious about bringing about change. We’re not there yet, but if this happens, President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize,” Graham said Friday on “Fox & Friends.”
North Korea has seemed like an intractable problem no matter who was president and no matter what party was in control. This has been true for decades, as we watched the situation slowly and seemingly-inexorably worsen. Say what you will about Trump, but he has a different approach than his predecessors—although actually it seems (as Bay describes in his essay) like a Trumpish version of the classic carrot-stick method.
Also, I wouldn’t underestimate the off-camera contributions and influence of Mattis.
Given that bot Arafat and Obama have been awarded it, I expect Trump will turn it down, IF they try to give it to him.
At least a decade after it happed, I had to convince my wife that it was Ronald Reagan who brought down Communism and not Gorbachov who some how reformed it away. I predict the MSM and Democrat Party be selling this as Obama’s brilliant legacy for the next twenty years if it happens, which I think it will.
As for the Nobel Peace prize, meh, it certainly makes the recipient feel good, though any prize that was given to Al Gore and Obama who’d done nothing is on par with a five year old’s T-ball participation trophy.
I would think that the collapse of the mountain which held the NORKs nuclear test site had quite a bit to do with them retinking their position on negotiations. If you can’t test the bombs to scare people it reduces your leverage considerably. Testing one in the atmosphere anywhere near civilization would be a death wish granted within the hour.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/04/26/geologists-say-north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed.html
IF Kim is serious about nuclear disarmament… then N. Korea was never an “intractable” problem. It only appeared to be because no prior President and administration was willing to convincingly communicate to the Norks and Chicoms that, if the Norks continued to pursue nuclear weapons capability, the “nuclear MacArthur solution” was not only on the table but was virtually certain to result.
Since nothing specific was discussed regarding ‘denuclearization’ nor has anything been said about how North and South Korea will unite into one nation again… I remain highly skeptical about the prospects for peace.
I can’t help but think that the enthusiastic response to this news has a bit of a hysterical edge to it.
Paul in Boston,
What is preventing Kim from ordering that a new nuclear testing site be developed? Would we know if one is in fact under construction? Whether another secondary site already exists? After 39 years of fanatical pursuit, at the very pinnacle of success, this setback is seen as insurmountable?
“Trump will never get credit from the MSM for any of this if it works out.”
Amen!
Whatever will come of North Korea I don’t know; but, I was struck at how little the MSM “celebrated” the fact that the North Korean Dictator WALKED ACROSS THE BORDER! to shake hands with the elected President of South Korea!
This is MAJOR news. Major!
If this had happened while Obama (or any other Democrat) was President the MSM, Congress, the UN, and everyone else would be dancing in the streets!
But, that “stupid buffoon”, Trump is President so they downplay it.
The MSM reaction to this major break in Korean relations reminds me of an old Bush joke:
When the Pope was visiting President Bush on the Presidential yacht on the Potomac, his holiness’ hat fly off, over the side of the boat. President Bush said, “Don’t worry your Holiness, I’ll get it.” So, Bush climbed over the side of the boat, walked across the water, picked up the floating hat and brought it back to the Pope. The next day all the headlines read “Bush cannot swim!”
And that is exactly how the MSM reacts to Trump. Never a good word to say.
I don’t feel that the response here is hysterical, but perhaps not sceptical enough. I think it is more about an overall change in the relationship with China of which Kim and his Nukes are but one issue. I think Trump has set the right goal – denuclearising the Korean peninsula, because that implicitly raises the issue of nuclearising South Kprea, Japan and Taiwan. Particularly Taiwan. So I think Trump is playing a much larger game than reining in Kim who probably believes that as China becomes the regional hegemon he will get to take over South Korea. As to the likelihood of Kim giving up his nukes I heard Seb Gorka on the Rubin Report recently and he put the chances at 3%. So I think the actual negotiation involves China having to choose between the easy way and the hard expansive way of being surrounded by nuclear nations and also the complex of other issues like trade and of course making sure Kim and China save face. The way I see it the NY Times et al will certainly help with the face issue by giving credit to Obama and the Swedes can pitch in by giving Kim and Xi Nobel prizes. Still 3% is a good number.
GB, What prevents Kim from building a new test site? Nothing, all it takes is time, money, and people. The issue is, does he have enough of all three right now?
The collapse of the test site is reported to have killed 200 people. If they were high level people with important skills that could ruin the chances of anything happening for several years until they can be replaced. A lot of knowledge is in people’s experience and can’t be reproduced overnight.
He is reportedly being squeezed by Chinese sanctions which cost him money.
How much time he has depends on how the negotiations go. Can he string them out or will China decide that trade with the US is more important than Kim’s hurt feelings or even survival?
Kim displays many of the behaviors of an oppositional defiant child. To date, previous administrations tried to alter his behavior through rewards for promised positive behaviors and consequences (punishments) for negative behaviors. (Carrot and stick tactics.)
Unfortunately, Kim never kept the bargains because the rewards were given out and the consequences never severe or consistent enough. Managing behavior through carrot and stick tactics requires firm attention and resolve to be sure the pain administered is great enough to motivate the desired cooperation. Kim is a particularly tough case of oppositional defiant actor. His case requires someone who is willing to use a big enough stick to motivate him. IMO, that is what Trump is doing. This requires the willingness to use military force that must be credible to Kim.
With Bolton, Pompeo, and Mattis advising him, I think Trump will get it right. Be prepared to be disappointed by the upcoming negotiations. But also be prepared to see Trump and team stay the course. Trump is like a bulldog. When he starts chewing on a bone he does not quit easily. Expect the progs to continue to oppose him at every step. The mid terms loom ever more important. A time to get out and vote for more Trump supporters in Congress.
“Donald Trump convinced North Korea and China he was serious about bringing about change. We’re not there yet, but if this happens, President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize,” Graham said Friday on “Fox & Friends.”
Ok…start listening for hoofbeats.
Graham praising President Trump has GOT TO BE a sign of the apocalypse.
ONLY international communists can get the peace prize, even if only in anticipation of what they might do that they may promise today, just as long as its international communism….
“. . . he has a different approach than his predecessors”.
Thank God Mr. Trump understands the old saying, “It’s a sign of insanity to keep trying the same solution and expect different results.”