Arabs turning on Hamas?
Alas, I can’t get to the WSJ article entitled “Arab Leaders Abandon the Palestinians.”
But the report here is that the Saudi Crown Prince is saying some interesting things:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman said in an interview with The Atlantic magazine, that Israelis are entitled to their own land ”” the first time a Saudi leader endorsed the notion of a Jewish homeland. He also called for a peace agreement with Palestinians that would allow Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to pursue shared interests with the Jewish state. He never mentioned the violence in Gaza.
That seems like a change, and the change is most likely emanating from fear of the influence of its enemy Iran in the region. Many of the larger, more functional Arab states are realizing that Israel is somewhat of a natural ally in the fight against Iran.
Jordan got sick and tired of the Palestinians (at least, the PLO arm) a long, long time ago. Lebanon has had its own problems with them, too; the Palestinians’ (PLO) presence there was highly instrumental in the civil war that changed that country very much for the worse. And Egypt’s al-Sisi has been improving relations with Israel since his leadership of the country began.
Egypt and Jordan, the only Arab nations with peace treaties with Israel, have also been silent about the Palestinian deaths, said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator for the Middle East and an adviser to past Republican and Democratic presidents.
Miller and other analysts said the silence reflects fundamental changes in the region…
“But in the past 10 years, many in the Arab world have shifted. … There’s a shared strategic threat regarding Iran,” a majority-Shiite nation that is the arch-enemy of Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia.
Iran has expanded its influence with military support into conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Balance of power.
Arab rulers see Gaza and the West Bank ” as a money pit that they continue to support without much result,” Miller said.
While Hamas is seen as an obstacle to peace, “Palestinian leadership is directionless, dysfunctional and corrupt,” Miller said.
This is nothing new, so it can’t be the real reason, although it contributes. But maybe, just maybe at year 70 (coming up this May) of Israel’s existence, they realize that as far as Hamas is concerned the conflict is never going to end, and it’s counterproductive for them.
Money is part of this equation, too:
Saudi’s Prince Mohammed has met with business groups that include a number of Jews during his U.S. tour that began last month to promote a massive project to diversify the Saudi economy. He referred in his Atlantic interview to Israel’s dynamic and technologically driven economy.
I consider this all to be be tentatively good news.
I’m jaded. Cynical as they come. But I think maybe this guy means what he says.
Anwar Sadat died for what became clear to every sane person. Israel not only has a right to exist, it has earned its existence. So maybe Prince Mohamed isn’t being any more direct than he can afford. But the fact of the matter is that compared with Iran, the Arabs will stick with Israel.
I’m not super model rich and I don’t hang out in the same places as the Saudi royals when they hit London or Monaco, but I think I have this one properly calibrated.
A reconciliation of risks, imperatives, and interests. Baby steps.
Encouraging, but we’ll see.
In his Atlantic interview, the Prince asserted four blatant lies.
One, that Islam is a “religion of peace”.
Two, that the only reason for prior Muslim invasions of Europe was because Muslims were not allowed to peacefully proselytize Europeans.
Three, that the spread of Islam into India was an example of how Muslims have previously proselytized peacefully.
Four, He denied any familiarity with Saudi Arabia’s utterly dominant Wahhabist sect.
These lies demonstrate that the man is a snake in the grass. He favors the knife in the back. His support for Israel will only last until Iran is no longer a mortal threat. Obviously he’s relying on the West’s gullibility.
Geoffrey, you may very well turn out to be right. But what I’m saying is that he just may be being as forthright as he can without getting assassinated.
The Muslims have a long tradition of assassination. In fact, the English word for assassin derives from the Arabic al-hashishin.
It’s why I mentioned Sadat.
You feed drinks into an Arab politician at his hotel bar and you’ll get an earful about what he really thinks. But don’t try to hold him to it because he’ll call you a liar.
It is no surprise that the Prince uttered what Geoffrey Britain pointed out in his comment. That is standard Muslim boiler plate. What is surprising is hearing him endorse a Jewish homeland.
There is ample evidence that the Palestinians are expendable to much of the Arab world. As leverage against the West they were useful…but now not so much…especially given the strong commitment President Trump has signalled for Israel.
And yes…MbS is muslim, so he will turn on Iran now while they are a threat to his peace & serenity & lie like a rug until it’s time to turn on Israel again.
I think the question is always, who’s going to get the most out of the bargain until this deal too goes sour?
Geoffrey Britain Says:
April 5th, 2018 at 6:40 pm
In his Atlantic interview, the Prince asserted four blatant lies.
TRUE
Gringo Says:
April 5th, 2018 at 7:54 pm
It is no surprise that the Prince uttered what Geoffrey Britain pointed out in his comment. That is standard Muslim boiler plate. What is surprising is hearing him endorse a Jewish homeland.
TRUE
Steve57 Says:
April 5th, 2018 at 7:04 pm
Geoffrey, you may very well turn out to be right. But what I’m saying is that he just may be being as forthright as he can without getting assassinated.
TRUE
* * *
You have to go to war with the Arab Princes you have, not the ones you wish you had.
If he can stick to his program of modernizing Saudi Arabia, it will have revolutionary effects all through the Middle East and the world.
If he is killed — and the Saudis don’t immediately dismember the culprits — then we are probably done with any hope of ending Muslim imperialism and terrorism.
There’s persistent speculation Saudi oil reserves are 40% less than thought. Thus neo’s pull quote:
Saudi’s Prince Mohammed has met with business groups that include a number of Jews during his U.S. tour that began last month to promote a massive project to diversify the Saudi economy. He referred in his Atlantic interview to Israel’s dynamic and technologically driven economy.
The chances for Prince Mohammed to modernize Saudi Arabia are very slim. DJT has a much better chance of draining the Washington D.C. swamp than the Saudi ruler has of diversifying the Saudi economy. And Trump is facing huge obstacles.
However, if this provides Israel with some breathing room from the Palestinians, and provides a counter weight to Iran, even if temporarily, it could be helpful for a time. As Ronaldo Magnus said, “Trust but verify.”
I’m not discounting the value of, “he may be a bastard but he’s our bastard”. We should certainly use him as a counterweight to Iran. I imagine he sees the terrorism of ISIS and al Qeada as ‘counter-productive’. Make no mistake, that he prefers the jihad of stealth and hijrah against the infidel, lessens his enmity not in the least.
I judge his intentions toward the West to be hostile given the blatancy of his lies, which reveal deep deceit. Instead of easily disprovable lies, all he had to say is that modern Muslims are no more responsible for the excesses of the past than modern Christians are for the inquisition. That the Islamic world has its fanatics no less than the West. And, were he an honest ‘moderate’ he would have used words to that effect.
My cafe friend, Mustafa, is finishing up his doctorate. He’s a black Somali Muslim from Jeddah, the major city in Saudi Arabia no one hears about.
Mustafa tells me in Saudi it’s all about being from the original tribes. He’s not and he likes it better in America.
Today he was about to go to a luncheon where his colleagues were to honor with him a formal toast. He asked me the etiquette for the toast recipient.
I wasn’t sure. I told him it was probably all right to smile, look bashful and say “Thank you” afterward.
One day we will play cowboys versus muslims, are we won’t cause they already won the crash of civilizations via Quislings.
Here is the WSJ article:
Arab Leaders Abandon the Palestinians
Facing threats from Iran and Turkey, they want peace–and to strangle Hamas.
A Palestinian protester during clashes in the West Bank city of Ramallah, March 30.
A Palestinian protester during clashes in the West Bank city of Ramallah, March 30. PHOTO: ALAA BADARNEH/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY/SHUTTERSTOCK
By Walter Russell Mead
April 2, 2018 6:29 p.m. ET
179 COMMENTS
On the surface it was business as usual in the Gaza Strip. Hamas bussed thousands of residents to the border with Israel to begin a six-week protest campaign ahead of the 70th anniversary of Israel’s independence–or, as the Palestinians call it, the nakba, or “catastrophe.” This protest would mark “the beginning of the Palestinians’ return to all of Palestine,” according to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
It didn’t. Stones were thrown, tires were set aflame, and shots were fired. When the smoke cleared, the borders were still in place and 15 Palestinians lay dead, with three more succumbing later from injuries. While families endured their private tragedies, familiar controversies swirled. The usual people denounced Israel in the usual ways, countered by the usual defenders making the usual arguments.
But what is happening in Gaza today is not business as usual. Tectonic plates are shifting in the Middle East as the Sunni Arab world counts the cost of the failed Arab Spring and the defeat of Sunni Arabs by Iranian-backed forces in Syria.
In headier times, pan-Arab nationalists like Gamal Abdel Nasser and lesser figures like Saddam Hussein dreamed of creating a united pan-Arab state that could hold its own among the world’s great powers. When nationalism sputtered out, many Arabs turned to Sunni Islamist movements instead. Those, too, have for the time being failed, and today Arab states seek protection from Israel and the U.S. against an ascendant Iran and a restless, neo-Ottoman Turkey.
But the American protection on which Arabs rely cannot be taken for granted, as President Trump’s apparent determination to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria in the near term demonstrates. Under these circumstances, Israel’s unmatched access to Washington makes Jerusalem even more important to Arab calculations. Perhaps only Israel can keep the U.S. engaged in the region.
It is against this backdrop that the old Palestinian alliance with the Arab nations has frayed. Most Arab rulers now see Palestinian demands as an inconvenient obstacle to a necessary strategic alliance with Israel. The major Gulf states and Egypt apparently have agreed on two goals. The first is to strangle Hamas in Gaza to restore the authority of the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority. The second is to press the authority to accept the kind of peace that Israel has offered repeatedly and that Yasser Arafat and his successor have so far rejected.
Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are playing for time. They support the first goal by refusing to pay the salaries of government employees in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip even as they resist pressure to make peace with the Jewish State. It is not yet clear what the authority’s final response to the peace pressure will be. Even if it ultimately decides to accept an Arab-sponsored compromise, making a show of resistance can improve its credibility with the Palestinian public and, perhaps, extract better terms.
Hamas is in an even more desperate plight. The Arab blockade and donor strike cripples Gaza in ways the Israelis never could. Food is growing scarce, electricity is erratic, unemployment exceeds 40%, and raw sewage runs into the sea. Many Gaza residents presumably want the only thing Hamas can’t offer: relief.
Historically Hamas has reacted to this kind of pressure by launching wars against Israel, trusting its friends abroad to force the Jewish state to cease fire before it can inflict serious damage on Hamas’ leadership. But in the 2014 war, Arab foot-dragging gave Israel time to deal a serious defeat to Hamas. Another war would be equally ruinous and for the same reason: The Arab governments want Hamas crushed, and they won’t stop Israel from doing the job.
The current demonstrations, Hamas hopes, can whip up a global wave of rage and indignation against Israel without provoking a full-on war. That might weaken the Arab coalition against it. But the prime audience for Hamas’s performance this time isn’t the Arab world; it is Turkey and Iran, whose support Hamas will need to survive if it is driven from Gaza (as Arafat was once driven from Jordan and Lebanon).
Rifts between Palestinians and other Arabs are nothing new. But the collapse of Arab nationalism and the failure of Sunni radicalism have weakened the political forces that rallied Arab support to the Palestinian cause. With millions of new Arab refugees in Syria, and growing threats to Arab independence from powerful neighbors, prioritizing Palestine is a luxury many Arabs feel they can no longer afford.
However a few days later King Salman essentially countered his son’s statement by reaffirming his kingdom’s support for the Palestinians with no mention of Israel, which suggests no change from their long held position.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-saudi/saudi-king-reiterates-support-for-palestinians-after-israel-comments-idUSKCN1HA19H
It’s been clear for a long time that “support” for the Palestinian cause wasn’t actually benefiting the Saudis in the long run; it wasn’t even benefiting the Palestinians. But it’s difficult to learn from your mistakes if your culture won’t allow you to admit that you made them.
In practice, Arab support for the Palestinians has always been a matter of convenience, and rather limited.
If it wasn’t, there wouldn’t have been a “refugee problem”, because the refugees would have been accepted and ultimately absorbed by the neighboring Arab states (admittedly some of the refugees didn’t want to be absorbed).
I find it amusing as all get out that an osprey is talking about a King Salmon.
http://talstarlodge.com/wp-content/gallery/salmon-king/don-casey-salmon-tal-2.jpg
Arabs turning on Russia…
Russian-Saudi relations could be very different today, if Stalin hadn’t killed the Soviet ambassador to Saudi Arabia.
but you have to read the autobiographies the historyies and know things like how ibn saud created the house of saud, and things like that that NEVER are part and parcel of discussions here. remember, russia is invisable unless it does someting so overt its impossible to ignore them… as long as they stay below that they can literally do what they want.
Moscow to the Arabs: Iran Is Our Top Ally…
Alfoneh in The Arab Weekly: Facing Isolation Iran Turns to Russia, China
https://thearabweekly.com/facing-isolation-iran-turns-russia-china
Russia—Syria—Iran—Iraq coalition
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Syria%E2%80%93Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_coalition
In October 2015, it was suggested that the Russia—Syria—Iran—Iraq coalition may have been devised during the visit by Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Iranian Quds Force, to Moscow in July 2015.
The United States, along with its NATO and Arab allies, have criticized this coalition; most airstrikes during the first week of the campaign, they say, struck areas held by rebel groups opposed to both the Syrian government and ISIL
-=-=-=-
Abdulaziz ibn Abdul Rahman ibn Faisal ibn Turki ibn Abdullah ibn Muhammad Al Saud – the first monarch and founder of Saudi Arabia, the “third Saudi state”
He reconquered his family’s ancestral home city of Riyadh in 1902, starting three decades of conquests that made him the ruler of nearly all of central Arabia. He consolidated his control over the Najd in 1922, then conquered the Hejaz in 1925. He extended his dominions into what later became the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932. As King, he presided over the discovery of petroleum in Saudi Arabia in 1938 and the beginning of large-scale oil production after World War II. He fathered many children, including 45 sons, and all of the subsequent kings of Saudi Arabia.
In 1904, Abdulaziz of Al Rashid (a.k.a. Ibn Rashid) appealed to the Ottoman Empire for military protection and assistance. The Ottomans responded by sending troops into Arabia. On 15 June 1904, Ibn Saud’s forces suffered a major defeat at the hands of the combined Ottoman and Rashidi forces. His forces regrouped and began to wage guerrilla warfare against the Ottomans.
It is a little-known fact that Riyadh and Moscow used to enjoy remarkably warm relations in the 1920s and 30s. The Soviet Union was, in fact, a diplomatic pioneer in Saudi Arabia: It was the first state to recognise Abdulaziz Al Saud (King Salman’s father) as the King of the Hijaz and the Sultan of Nejd in February 1926.
How Moscow lost Riyadh in 1938
Russia and Saudi Arabia had a 54-year break in relations, during which the US became Riyadh’s dominant partner and security guarantor. Perhaps the outcome of King Salman’s visit could have been very different, if it weren’t for an incident that spoiled Russian-Saudi relations 80 years ago and caused the break.
you dont read in the wiki WHERE ibn got the weapons to fight..
it wasn’t until after the Bolshevik revolution that Moscow decided to seriously focus on the Gulf. Just like the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union saw the value of diplomatic presence in the region as a way to stand up to Britain
Apart from pursuing relations with the House of Al Saud, the Soviet Union looked at the Kingdom of Hejaz whose ruler Sharif Hussein controlled Mecca and Medina as a way to reach out to the entire Muslim world.
Who facilitated Ibn take over of mecca and medina?
and what did they do later that screwed that pooch?
read about Georgy Chicherin… peoples commmisar
By the end of 1925, Ibn Saud controlled Jeddah, and in February 1926 he declared himself King of Hejaz and Sultan of Nejd. As soon as the Soviet mission learned the news, Khakimov did what ultimately earned him the respect and friendship of Ibn Saud.
sounds great!
then what?
As the power of Joseph Stalin was growing stronger, the relationship between the communist regime and Islam was becoming uneasy. In 1932, the Soviet Union unofficially banned its Muslims from performing Hajj.
Soviet medics continued to work in the kingdom and the diplomatic mission continued to function spreading Soviet propaganda among Saudis
oh oh
The career of the Soviet Lawrence of Arabia ended abruptly when he fell victim to Stalin’s political terror in 1937.
In September that year, he was recalled to Moscow for a routine visit to the foreign ministry, but upon his arrival, he was arrested on suspicion of being a spy.
His colleague Turyakulov who worked with him on the Saudi file was executed in October 1937.
Khakimov was executed in January 1938.
Relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia were fully restored only in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union
but in the meantime.. russia was doing a lot with carlos the jackal, and their man from the PLO (who we now know araffat was their guy!!!) and more..
but lets see what people say… 🙂
i can tell you that Salmon Rushdie has no sense of humor, is a real arse, but his wife is nice and glad she is away from him… he behaves so bad that you almost wish to partake of the fatwah to get two birds with one stone. sad little lonely unfriendly man…
This is like Game of Thrones. I have no specific judgment on it yet.
Related:
“The Saudi Arabia-Middle East Studies Love Affair Is Over”
(Guess why!)
https://www.meforum.org/campus-watch/articles/2018/the-saudi-arabia-middle-east-studies-love-affair-i