It has become the norm to talk about American leadership of NATO in derogatory terms, but so long as the United States has been in charge, there has never been an occasion when the members of the alliance seriously considered challenging that state of affairs.
But no one holds Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Greece or Turkey in that same regard. We may actually now see that long and repeatedly offered prediction come true and be watching the first stages of the practical dissolution of the organization.
LAG,
It was not an unintended consequence, it was a highly probable consequence. If anyone in the Obama administration had been thinking instead of reacting, it should have been apparent that Islamic extremists were the likely successors to Mubarak’s clique unless the military was ready to install a junta style dictatorship.
NATO without a firm American hand is a joke. Currently we have a CINC who is too busy running for re-election and playing golf to get his hands dirty with the on the ground/in the sky affairs of NATO. Personally, I’m ready to be done with NATO. We can no longer afford to carry 95% of the burden.
1. That was the kind of link that I hate to click because I know what I’ll find irrespective of the specifics: another indicator of American decline amid Western decline.
The most painful–and, in principle even if not in practice at this time, most hopeful– thing is that the decline is completely unnecessary and remains reversible.
2. The Egyptian masses are supporting the strong horse as they see it. To their regret, they may soon learn the lesson that the Iranians did. (But secular, Western-educated, Davos-attending “technocrats” have lost their credibility. Whom does that leave?)
Parker, I’m afraid you’re right that is was an ignored or unexamined consequence rather than unintended, but in absence of demonstrated malicious intent or just plain laziness I try to be fair. I am open to being shown new facts, however. As with the X-Files, I believe the truth is out there. Somewhere.
NATO won’t go away for a while but two more years of this sort of leadership ought to reduce it to insignificance in any practical sense. It will like the UN continue to function as a jobs organization for surplus world diplomats and bureaucrats. If the UN decides Mother Earth is a person, maybe NATO can sign on as her knight protector.
As for the Egyptians and the Brotherhood, I hear that they are in negotiations. That could develop into something similar to Prime Minister Erdogan’s situation with the Turkish army. He’s slowly pushing against the Turkish army’s role as protector of a secular government.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Brotherhood in Egypt agree at first to a similar role for the Egyptian army. It’s a situation they could accept while planning to undermine the Egyptian army over the long term. Neither the Turks nor the Egyptians in that scenario would be very good for us.
LAG says, “As for the Egyptians and the Brotherhood, I hear that they are in negotiations. That could develop into something similar to Prime Minister Erdogan’s situation with the Turkish army. He’s slowly pushing against the Turkish army’s role as protector of a secular government.”
This is why Turkey will probably slowly slide into reasserting its claim to be the home of the next caliphate. (Of course, Iran wants to be number 1 as soon as the 12th iman is identified.) Historically, Ataturk was the best thing the West had in the world of Islam; so Turkey’s shift towards a jihadi mindset is bad news for the West.
With regard to NATO, it has outlived its usefulness. If the EU can not defend itself against the Russians or sharia, given their combined economic power, they are not worth saving with US $$. Close down the military stations and bring our $$ and troops back home.
We’ve taken the Iran/muslim brotherhood/AQ’s side in every recent clash in the mid-east, coincidence?
Good point, ck. There is something disgusting about the cringe that Obama offers Muslim and other tyrants. I think I know what that cringe is: the neophytes first blushing entrance into the circle.
Doesn’t it make you want to stamp wanna be dictator’s faces into the mud?
Curtis, is it a cringe, by which I assume you mean a show of weakness, or is it a program?
I’m not so sure that it’s not part of a program. If you were to look at the world and see what you believed to be an irrepressible popular movement taking place, how would you position your nation? This might be a stab at foreign policy realism, Obama-style.
LAG,
Ask the Iranians about his support of the “irrepressible popular movement” when it took place in their country.
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a fait accompli
wishful thinking gets you nowhere
Weimar’s tale unheeded is Weimar’s tale repeated.
I hope at least that we can call that an unintended consequence. I think this may be another unintended outcome that’s taking place just one country to the left. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/13/world/africa/13nato.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2
It has become the norm to talk about American leadership of NATO in derogatory terms, but so long as the United States has been in charge, there has never been an occasion when the members of the alliance seriously considered challenging that state of affairs.
But no one holds Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Greece or Turkey in that same regard. We may actually now see that long and repeatedly offered prediction come true and be watching the first stages of the practical dissolution of the organization.
LAG,
It was not an unintended consequence, it was a highly probable consequence. If anyone in the Obama administration had been thinking instead of reacting, it should have been apparent that Islamic extremists were the likely successors to Mubarak’s clique unless the military was ready to install a junta style dictatorship.
NATO without a firm American hand is a joke. Currently we have a CINC who is too busy running for re-election and playing golf to get his hands dirty with the on the ground/in the sky affairs of NATO. Personally, I’m ready to be done with NATO. We can no longer afford to carry 95% of the burden.
1. That was the kind of link that I hate to click because I know what I’ll find irrespective of the specifics: another indicator of American decline amid Western decline.
The most painful–and, in principle even if not in practice at this time, most hopeful– thing is that the decline is completely unnecessary and remains reversible.
2. The Egyptian masses are supporting the strong horse as they see it. To their regret, they may soon learn the lesson that the Iranians did. (But secular, Western-educated, Davos-attending “technocrats” have lost their credibility. Whom does that leave?)
Parker, I’m afraid you’re right that is was an ignored or unexamined consequence rather than unintended, but in absence of demonstrated malicious intent or just plain laziness I try to be fair. I am open to being shown new facts, however. As with the X-Files, I believe the truth is out there. Somewhere.
NATO won’t go away for a while but two more years of this sort of leadership ought to reduce it to insignificance in any practical sense. It will like the UN continue to function as a jobs organization for surplus world diplomats and bureaucrats. If the UN decides Mother Earth is a person, maybe NATO can sign on as her knight protector.
As for the Egyptians and the Brotherhood, I hear that they are in negotiations. That could develop into something similar to Prime Minister Erdogan’s situation with the Turkish army. He’s slowly pushing against the Turkish army’s role as protector of a secular government.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Brotherhood in Egypt agree at first to a similar role for the Egyptian army. It’s a situation they could accept while planning to undermine the Egyptian army over the long term. Neither the Turks nor the Egyptians in that scenario would be very good for us.
LAG says, “As for the Egyptians and the Brotherhood, I hear that they are in negotiations. That could develop into something similar to Prime Minister Erdogan’s situation with the Turkish army. He’s slowly pushing against the Turkish army’s role as protector of a secular government.”
This is why Turkey will probably slowly slide into reasserting its claim to be the home of the next caliphate. (Of course, Iran wants to be number 1 as soon as the 12th iman is identified.) Historically, Ataturk was the best thing the West had in the world of Islam; so Turkey’s shift towards a jihadi mindset is bad news for the West.
With regard to NATO, it has outlived its usefulness. If the EU can not defend itself against the Russians or sharia, given their combined economic power, they are not worth saving with US $$. Close down the military stations and bring our $$ and troops back home.
We’ve taken the Iran/muslim brotherhood/AQ’s side in every recent clash in the mid-east, coincidence?
Good point, ck. There is something disgusting about the cringe that Obama offers Muslim and other tyrants. I think I know what that cringe is: the neophytes first blushing entrance into the circle.
Doesn’t it make you want to stamp wanna be dictator’s faces into the mud?
Curtis, is it a cringe, by which I assume you mean a show of weakness, or is it a program?
I’m not so sure that it’s not part of a program. If you were to look at the world and see what you believed to be an irrepressible popular movement taking place, how would you position your nation? This might be a stab at foreign policy realism, Obama-style.
LAG,
Ask the Iranians about his support of the “irrepressible popular movement” when it took place in their country.