The polls…
…don’t appear to have changed much as a result of the Comey reveal.
That’s what I expected. But I think the situation is still very much in flux. If more revelations come out, I’m not sure what will happen. And of course, rumors abound.
Fasten your seatbelts, it’s already a bumpy ride. For everyone—including Hillary supporters.
My latest fit to the 538 probability data is a quadratic with a projection of 60% for HRC on Nov 8. I had to reset the data back to Oct 12 which until the last 6 days gave a liner fit, but now the trend is up for Trump and down for HRC. The slope will have to increase a bit to come to 50/50 odds.
Back a few threads ago I remarked on an HRC election posing an constitutional crisis, and Neo said basically, no as we would have Kaine. I still disagree. If HRC is elected , but then indicted by the FBI before the Electoral College votes, or even before the inauguration, then she and Kaine are still not POTUS or VP; they are in a sense in limbo. I suspect the FBI will take at least until December to sort through 10,000+ emails, but my question is what happens if the POTUS-elect is then indicted? Does Obama risk a pardon? Do the Electors (those not bound by state law) vote for Trump or someone else? I don’t necessarily see Kaine as a preferred choice, and one objected to by a large number of people. A bumpy ride indeed.
‘The polls…
…don’t appear to have changed much as a result of the Comey reveal.’
If the polls are narrowing it is impossible to know whether this is because of Comey’s reveal or if they would be narrowing anyway* (which they do at the late stages of almost all presidential campaigns)
*An example of why political science is an observational science only.
‘My latest fit to the 538 probability data is a quadratic with a projection of 60% for HRC on Nov 8.’*
Fitting the curve is making an assumption that the candidate’s support will play out in a way that it can be fit to a mathematical equation. What sort of previous data do we have that would validate that assumption. OTOH, the Trump/Hillary support graph at 538 does look periodic.
Don’t over think this. Hillary is finished.
She ran a criminal RICO enterprise and she needed a private server to do business. Now the emails have been discovered.
If you want two years of drama, then don’t vote for Trump. It will take two years to get her out of office.
I’m sick of polls. Screw’em.
Don’t “over think” is tantamount to spouting don’t think, since each thinker would have to judge whether he or she is overthinking — and how to do that without overthinking?, i.e., having some perfect standard of thinking against which to judge of such a thing?
Fortunately or unfortunately, I grew up the son of an IBM employee, who had that famous desk-plaque: THINK.
It’s just easier that way.
Sdferr:
Ok. Think.
Hillary is a criminal. There’s tons of evidence to support that assertion. If DOJ, won’t prosecute then the FBI will leak or the House will impeach. Good for TV ratings but not so good for us.
Mark Steyn cites John Hinderaker with approval and then goes on to make additional sensible points.
http://www.steynonline.com/7577/occam-weiner
No thinking person would help Hillary win and that means an affirmative vote for Trump is needed.
sdferr:
It’s easy. “Don’t overthink” means “don’t disagree with me.”
Pops tried his best to teach me to understand base-2, and I’m not at all certain I ever caught on. But then too, he seemed to harbor a certain favor toward base-6. A devil? Could be.
Hm. Seems to me “don’t overthink” is the same as “don’t miss the forest for the trees.”
Or how about this? She’s a nasty, sick old woman and nobody likes her.
Good enough.
Cap’n Rusty:
Nope, only when you agree with the person saying not to overthink.
Cornhead:
Well, Trump is nastier, and he’s disliked by even more people than she is, so that argument doesn’t wash.
I also don’t happen to think her health is anymore near as bad as many people seem to believe, and I’ve written about that before, too. But I do agree that his health is probably better than hers.
I want to Mass on Sunday. The priest went on for nearly 30 minutes. He basically said that while each candidate had positions on a variety of issues on which reasonable people could disagree, abortion and baby part selling is such a fundamentally evil thing that he could not condone a vote for any candidate who supported abortion. He did not use Trump’s or Clinton’s name.
He then went on to say that if any one voted for such a candidate, then that person could not go to communion. That was a mistake.
I’ve been going to Mass for over 50 years and I have never seen anything like it.
Or try this. Her own husband doesn’t love her. And he’s had sex (allegedly) with over 2,000 women. And she stays married to him. That’s really, really sick.
Has Hillary no self-respect?
With two such deplorable candidates I think polls are of little value at this point. The Clintons have such a long, and well known history of corruption and scandals piled high upon scandals that the Friday announcement by Comey changes nothing. Trump’s only hope is a major gain among the ‘independents’ in the battlefield states. We do have more bumps coming up in the next 8 days and more tricks than treats.
the polls are a farce and i put up how they are gamed..
its like being in russia and no one listening that pravda is punking them..
because the press has no representation on the right… its like a window on slide ruler in which the sides are static in their distance apart, but the whole of the window moves down the slide… those riding the window, cant FEEL difference so think there is not much.. [there is no right wing press other than the hodge podge of non professionals out there]
I have been waiting for over a year for someone other than me to know the roots of the Alt-right and actually speak up. not one person has mentioned him in light of alt right on neoneocon… (there is one reference but that is over a bill not over his creation of this)
Some Observations From the Man Who Created Alt-Right
An intellectual movement that Democrats want to use to smear Breitbart and Trump.
[edited for length by n-n]
Cornhead:
Do you really care?
Do you think most people don’t know what a marriage of convenience is?
Do you think many women don’t stay with philandering husbands for any variety of reasons?
Do you think many women don’t feel unloved?
Do you think any of this is relevant to who you vote for?
Do you not think that it’s likely to get sympathy from many women rather than turn them against her?
People love Bill Clinton despite all of it, by the way.
I certainly am not voting for Hillary, but none of this means a thing to me.
Plus—Donald Trump has bragged about all his sexual conquests, including the adulterous ones. And he’s the philanderer himself, not the spouse of the philanderer. Which is more despicable, if you’re going to despise the behavior and consider it relevant?
Cap’n Rusty Says: Hm. Seems to me “don’t overthink” is the same as “don’t miss the forest for the trees.”
Shocking one’s listener has its limits, certainly in terms of traditional standards of taste. There is merit in what the Delphic Oracle taught: “Nothing in excess.” – godfather of alt right
But the first thing that a serious Right must learn is that it’s not competing on a level playing field. What Trump describes as the “lying, crooked” media have been fixing the field to their advantage for decades. The clients of the multicultural Left can hurl obscenities at white people and burn America flags and have their misdeeds hidden or excused. The other side, very broadly understood, will be tarred with charges of bigotry, no matter how obsequiously it “reaches out.” This unfortunately is the way things are, and those in Altright with loose tongues who enjoy shocking should at least recognize that they will never be in a position of power or influence unless they practice verbal restraint. And even if they learn to do that, they will still have a long row to hoe.
NONE of the press is on the right… if it were you would have one paper that owuld go after all the items that are offensive and lies and so on.. (And boy would they make a lot of $$$)
if you been reading the pedigree and hnistory and know the names and who and whats been focused on, you would know the others whno are trying to figure things out without study, history, and so on… BEEN PUNKED over and over.
The thing that does mean something to me about the Bill & Hillary drama is the sham of marital happiness they continue to play for the benefit of us rubes.
“I want to Mass on Sunday. The priest went on for nearly 30 minutes.” – Cornhead
He may be a priest, but he is still a man.
The choice he/you present is a false choice.
‘Or try this. Her own husband doesn’t love her. And he’s had sex (allegedly) with over 2,000 women. And she stays married to him. That’s really, really sick.’
All you say is true but Hillary is not and will not lead directly to a unique threat to the American Republic so it really doesn’t matter. (indirectly is a different matter but she’s a watered down Obama and not a true believer). Even if Trump is not a proto-fascist, don’t you think they’re watching his campaign from the sidelines, making their plans?
Or how about this? She stinks!
From John Podesta’s email:
“Also, I’ve noticed she has an “odor” lately. It reminds me of a combination of boiled cabbage, urine, and farts. I’m guessing it’s either connected to her fall or simply to the fact she rarely bathes. Outside of encouraging her to take a shower once in a while, I don’t know what to do about this — any suggestions would be appreciated. -JP”
The “she stinks” email was fake. Screenshot looked real to me.
Cornhead,
It is also possible to over imagine. 😉
Because the Nate Silver forecast is filtered through an electoral college model, it amplifies small differences. Trump’s numbers had been steadily improving from 12% to 18% but since Comey’s announcement, Trump’s numbers gained impressive ground to 25%.
Silver is reluctant to attribute this improvement purely to Comey and wants to wait for more polls.
In any event Trump supporters can take some heart that the race has tightened.
Don’t overthink.
No thinking person would help Hillary win and that means an affirmative vote for Trump is needed.
Cornhead: Oh, knock it off. I don’t need your advice on how to think or your claim that if I don’t vote for Trump, then I am not a thinking person.
I oppose Hilllary. That’s one of the reasons I won’t vote for Trump.
As I see it, Trump is going to lose, and the worse he loses the better for the GOP to rebuild and face down Hillary in the future.
Also I wish to reduce Trump’s and the alt-right’s ability to screw further with the GOP. I find them both anathema.
sdferr Says:
October 31st, 2016 at 4:36 pm
“Pops tried his best to teach me to understand base-2, and I’m not at all certain I ever caught on.”
sdferr – there are 10 types of people in this world: those who understand binary and those who don’t.
take this with a grain of salt like all the other polls, we are not in a place where we have a reference point to know we measure true, and are square and on the level with what we find..
Pat Caddell is saying that they are fleeing in droves.. [he is jimmy carters pollster so he isnt really someone who would want the left to lose]
“Last night on Political Insiders on Fox, ” continued Caddell, “my colleague Doug Schoen, who had been for Hillary Clinton, stunned everyone by saying he could no longer consider supporting her because if she were elected, there would be a constitutional crisis. I then equated the situation to Watergate in 1973.”
Pat Caddell on the Biased Media, Scattered Election Polling
https://www.aim.org/on-target-blog/pat-caddell-on-the-biased-media-scattered-election-polling/
The media “… have been operating for more than a year as the outriders of the political class in Washington,” polling expert Pat Caddell said
and
“…when [the media] abandon their place on the ramparts of protecting the people to become the oppressors of the American people…they’re making themselves the enemies of the American people.”
and
Caddell also discussed the scattered and often unreliable polling during this election cycle:
“I think the polls are a mess if you want to know the truth.” “And so we’re getting a variance of fairly severe differences in these numbers. I’m at the point where I almost want to throw my hands up.”
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
if your waiting for the news and polls to tell you trump is winning in any way, dont hold your breath. your assuming that someone will honestly do that and risk being the focus of who if the others doing it succeed?
i am amazed that anyone would take this idea or position in thought, behavior, etc… when this cycle it was perfectly fine to draw cartoon extras on one candidates face, and outright lying, protecting what is a blatant criminal in many forms and sell out…
you really think that after they get done doing that someone would say, hey, lets be honest in polling? wouldnt that be a hoot? lets draw cartoons on candidates, equate capitalists with national socialists, pay people to birdogg and do agit prop, bus people, get the dead to vote, and dozens of other things i can list, they would be honest in a poll?
do you really have to write letters to stalin of the times to keep the idea alive that is too hard to face?
it boggles the mind..
In recently released polling that Caddell worked on, the respondents were questioned about election media coverage: “34% of people said it was basically equally fair to both candidates, 53% said it favored Clinton, 5% favored Trump … and 8% thought it was equally unfair.”
Caddell concluded the interview by explaining:
“This is not about one side or the other. This is about fundamental American democracy. I believe in the absolute right of the American people to be sovereign, the sovereign governors of this country and that is not the case any longer and they know it. And the media’s role in this is immoral and unconscionable … ”
and to think we used to make fun of russians who believed pravda!!!!!!!!!
“In any event Trump supporters can take some heart that the race has tightened.” – huxley
Also factor in that the media prefers a “horse race” for ratings.
If it was too much of a blowout, then there wouldn’t be much interest.
I expect that this “news” will dissipate somewhat, as something new happens in the next few days.
Cornhead Says:
October 31st, 2016 at 5:57 pm
The “she stinks” email was fake. Screenshot looked real to me.
* *
When they start faking screenshots — the game is over.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/10/democrats-on-comey-then-and-now.php
“Oh, and by the way, @donnabrazile, deleting the tweet praising Comey doesn’t make it go away WHEN THERE ARE SCREENSHOTS.”
As for fake emails…
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/10/is-this-hillary-tweet-real-or-fake.php
I’d like to think that the MSM has shown more than ever they are in the tank for the dems, and fallout /exposure from the emails, such as donna brazile, will dog the clinton admin for some time.
The unfortunate thing about that is the “conservative” media has shown they are as much in the tank, effectively nullifying any argument about a media bias (looking at you limbaugh, hannity, ingraham, etc!).
No wonder all media are held in such low esteem.
and we now have learned their strategy:
Hillary Clinton forcefully challenged the FBI’s new email inquiry Monday, declaring during a campaign rally in battleground Ohio, “There’s no case here.”
“pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” defense
or
“these are not the droids your looking for” defense
and if that is not enough
“who you gonna believe me or your lying eyes” defense
The Hatch law was not intended to say that anyone running for office is immune from prosecution, its intended that someone like the FBI upper crust, dont come out and spout their ideas as a partisan due to their jobs… which ie. would be abusing the power and neutrality of their office..
but going after a criminal is the job, not a political statement or action… can it be? only if you want to accept Clinton claim that pursuing a criminal is affecting the election, but also, NOT PURSUING one is also having an effect… which is allowing her to pretend she is not guilty even if she is and she is most definitely guilty since the most innocuous things of a secretary of state can be construed to be secret. schedules, restaurant menus, etc.
all need to be secret or else your creating weaknesses in the defense of that person, other facts have other uses.
you think accusing Russia of doing things it may or may not have done… is helping worldwide peace? Call me old fashioned but the liberal is nuts to do that openly and then expect what during her presidency? laughs and giggles?
She is perfectly happy accusing a world leader openly with no evidence other than supposition in order to win the election against someone whose worst things are he has a big mouth (like teddy R), small hands (so lbj dick is bigger), multiple wives (while kennedy was married, had a mistriss and was abusing monroe to deliver notes to fran giancarlo, while his uncle ted basically commited homicide in a less responsible form and is know for dealing with the KGB to try to defeat reagan), etc. etc. etc
its un believable how she can pivot to some inanity.. like using a man who used to be one of a two man team to launch based on the system, say he would be worried… and not reveal how that system would prevent any kind of thing like that happening… duh…
and whats to stop her from the same? even more so given the ideologies beliefs like the fabians window of turning the world red with war to hammer it into a new shape they want…
Art,
Almost everyone believes the Russians hacked the DNC. It’s not based upon supposition
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-government-hackers-penetrated-dnc-stole-opposition-research-on-trump/2016/06/14/cf006cb4-316e-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a49791/russian-dnc-emails-hacked/
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/why-experts-think-russia-hacked-dnc-emails-n616486
I’m not for Hillary, but I am for other countries not hacking our political parties, as we all should be
But to pretend like this is just some wacky conjecture is disingenuous.
Will this election ever end???? This has been the most joyless, grueling, and nasty election of my lifetime.
RCP has clinton at 263 solid ec votes, based on current polls tonight.
She is significantly ahead in both NC (15) and CO (9), either of which would put her over.
Any other swing state is just going to be icing on the cake, if she wins any.
IOW, trump pretty much has to run the table on the swing states, (and perhaps do even better, given the number of votes already entered while he was further down in the polls).
Had trump a decent GOTV operation, it might be believable that he had a chance. But, sometimes h*ll does seem to freeze over.
The biggest news, and this predates the latest Comey revelation, is simply that Trump is not going away. The “P***y” tape was supposed to finish him off, allowing Hillary to coast effortlessly to her coronation but that isn’t happening.
Certainly Clinton is still in the lead and Big Maq is right that Trump has a very tough electoral row to hoe. But as Yogi said it ain’t over ’til it’s over.
May be, it is just a misogyny, but nastiness in women always revolted me much more than nastiness in men. I have an idealistic expectation about women and a rather cynical about men, especially about men in power. And I do not want to see any women at power: it is so unbecoming for them. It turns them into bitches.
Trump momentum continues. Now he has 45,3% on RCP average polls, more than at almost any other time in his campaign. Is it a special Providence for children, fools, drunkards and USA?
Had the same wishful thinking in 2012. You are in for a serious disappointment guys.
Not only does trump have to sweep the swing states, he needs to do better by an extra 2 to 3%, to make up for his poor GOTV operation.
Cornhead – Did the priest suggest McMullin, Trump, Johnson, or none of the above?
It was the ongoing and now undeniable collapse of Obamacare that was responsible for dramatic change in the polls.
Or may be stars has aligned now to favor Trump due configuration of his horoscope. No way to know for sure.
Speaking of obamacare, I turned 65 this past summer and so have reached the “promised land” of Medicare, etc. My wife, however, still has three years to go. Because we’re self employed, we’re among that “small minority of people” that Jonathan Gruber talked about on 10/28/2016 when he said:
“…[T]hese are not the premiums the vast majority of Americans face. So most Americans get insurance through their employer. What’s not being reported is, since Obamacare passed, employer-sponsored premiums have grown at their slowest rate in history. That’s not getting any headlines.
“There’s a small minority of people who buy insurance through the exchange. Most of them also aren’t affected by these premium increases because they get health insurance subsidies. So it’s really only a very small share of the public that’s affected by these premium increases, which I don’t think you’d realize if you read the headlines.”
Just so: We’re in that “very small share of the public” — the self employed – and for one person the only available insurance product that is simalar to what my wife has had is alomost $2000 per month. For one person.
Speaking of polls (and getting back to Neo’s topic) I keep praying that a pollster will call me!
Screw these people.