America united
It’s not easy to get 70% of Americans to agree on anything, much less across such disparate groups as “men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks.” But someone has finally done it, and his name is—Donald Trump:
Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll…
Even in the South, a region where Trump has won GOP primaries decisively, close to 70 percent view him unfavorably. And among whites without a college education, one of Trump’s most loyal voting blocs, 55 percent have a negative opinion.
Here is the reality: it will probably be impossible to make the 35% of the Republican party who are behind Donald Trump to ever stop supporting him. That means, he is probably going to go into the convention with the most delegates, even if he does not have 1,237.
Here’s the other reality: We are already at the point where absolutely no one outside of that 35% of the Republican party is an even potentially persuadable voter to Donald Trump. Either within the Republican party or without.
And I promise, no more Trump posts today…I think.
What a disaster!
The GOP continues its incompetence.
Everybody Hates Donald.
Even some of the people who support him don’t like him much. What they like is that he makes the “GOPe” quail and shake with fright; and that his slings crap in the faces of those who deserve to have such slung in their faces.
Unfortunately he does it by slinging it in every direction.
Apart from that “little” problem I’d probably vote for him myself if he were not such a narcissistic petulant lunatic, incoherent babbler, and unprincipled egomaniac devoid of even the most basic knowledge of constitutional governance and law.
Other than that, I think he does some good.
Not looking forward to the NY love fest primary coming up. It is all, “We love Donald because he is a New Yorker just like us.” Not exactly a reason to elect him the leader of the Free World.
It is not “GOP continues its incompetence”. The alternative is that the GOP “leadership” hand pick a candidate. They cannot, try as they might to influence the process.
Really hope that Cruz can win California, and then take it on the second ballot. If he doesn’t walk out with a win, I doubt very much if there will be any unity whatsoever to take on Clinton.
Trump winning would mean a stark choice for GOP voters, and many will probably stay home, if not vote Clinton as, arguably, the least bad.
Kasich or another parachuted candidate (prior runner or not) would just not have the enthusiasm nor legitimacy that the two front runners have. Kasich in particular will bear the title of spoiler, and the animosity that comes with that from the core Cruz supporters. We know what the Trump supporters would think.
Cruz could conceivably swing some Trump voters, and, reluctantly, the more moderate voters. Plus, the foresight and strategy he demonstrates in this campaign bodes well for his ability in an election campaign to win against a weak Clinton.
If polls have been correct, he never would have gotten this far and would have blown out, but its like you keep looking for truth in a soviet state press box… ha!
at what point do you realize that this is all crapola and unlike some science, not even bordeline scientific.
one pollster admitted that one of the polls they put up results had 1000 attempts at gathering information but only three people answered.
First, your taking a poll report from the magazine that gave man, i mean person, of the year to (in reverse order of time)
Ebola
Obama – Twice
The protester
Vladmir Putin
Mickail Gorbachev – Twice
Corazon Aquino
Deng Xiaoping – Twice
Yuri Andropov
Ayatollah Khomeini
Jimmy Carter
Nikita Khrushchev
Joseph Stalin – twice
Adolf Hitler – in 1938
Chiang Kai-shek – and his wife the next year Soong Mei-ling
see a bit of a bias in that??
yeah, there are other good people
vad vashem calls 1938
1938 — “The Fateful Year”
“The Fateful Year,” were part of the radicalization of the Nazis’ Jewish policy. During this year German expansionism escalated, and domestic preparations for war accelerated. The crackdown on Jews took on an increased ferocity, viewed as part of the overall political and ideological course. Throughout the year registration of Jewish property and its forced expropriation increased. The Nazi Minister of Economics Walter Funk boasted that by 1938, the authorities had managed to steal Jewish property worth two million marks
and you think their poll is valid?
Why not ask stalin to get your cousin out of a gulag, for if only stalin knew…
really?
you realize that one of the reasons we are in this bowl of crap is that no one cares who says what… time gives man of the year to stalin twice, and you think they are a good source? how can you caomplain about ANYTHING trump says or does after you have some of the most murderous people in human existence winning man of the year… and obama twice?
ugh. what a disaster
Artfldgr:
It’s not just the Time poll. Poll after poll after poll says essentially the same thing.
By the way, Time has explained many times that “Man of the Year” is not awarded for merit, it’s awarded for a person (good or evil or in-between) who makes the most news.
In a related issue, polls generally have also been fairly predictive about Trump’s percentages in the primaries themselves this campaign cycle (less good in the caucuses, which are generally much harder to predict).
Polling is a snapshot of a point in time. When Trump first entered the race last summer, polls measured his support at that point. But within a relatively short time (by some time in the fall) they came up to speed and have remained relatively accurate on Trump, given the difficulties inherent in polling itself. In each primary he has tended to slightly under-perform compared to his polls, but usually not by much and often within the margin of error. On the other hand, there has been a trend for his opponents (particularly Cruz) to perform better than the polls predict. That seems to be in part because the late-breakers tend to break for Trump’s opponents more often than for him.
“it will probably be impossible to make the 35% of the Republican party who are behind Donald Trump to ever stop supporting him.” neo
That’s my perception as well. However, that does not have to be definitive.
If nominated, Cruz has an opportunity to, over the course of many months, persuade Trump’s supporters that he deserves a chance to demonstrate through his actions both his agreement with them on the state of the country and of his sincerity. He can do that by attacking every democrat ‘policy’, by attacking political correctness and focusing upon illegal immigration, Muslim migration and the gutting of the middle class, Trump’s key issues.
“Really hope that Cruz can win California, and then take it on the second ballot. If he doesn’t walk out with a win, I doubt very much if there will be any unity whatsoever to take on Clinton.” Big Maq
Only Trump or Cruz have any hope of unified support from the base and that hope is slim. The GOPe will seek to use Rubio and Kasich’s delegates as leverage to get their pick for VP, whether Trump or Cruz. Just as they saddled “voodoo economics” Bush with Reagan.
Rufus Firefly’s post is simply baffling. I would like for him to explain what this situation has to do with GOP competence. Or maybe, like Trump who doesn’t think Kasich should be allowed to run, Mr Firefly thinks the GOP should have forbidden Trump’s candidacy. Really? Would that they could.
It seems to me that most of Trump’s supporters are focused on his “in your face attitude toward the media and the GOP” with little regard for how he would govern. Certainly he has been all over the map when he deigns to talk about issues. A couple of examples. Would he withdraw from the world, as evidenced by his comments about NATO? Or would he try to bully the world as his comments about Mexico and China seem to indicate? I expect our friends are apprehensive, while our adversaries are chortling at his naivete.
Richard Saunders:
Actually, that quote about the 35% is by the writer at the RedState link. But I agree with it.
Why not a Romney-Trump ticket? That way, everyone’s happy.
artfldgr,
lack of clarity. sorry.
You are a wealth of information but you cannot honestly believe Trump can win.
My wife and I both like Cruz and cannot tell our grandchildren we ever voted for Obama or Trump.
We cannot.
Mrs. parker and I agree Baklava. We can not!
I’ve jumped from Trump as a 19:1 underdog to Parker’s 99:1 underdog….
I think that Donald’s subconscious wants OUT.
Even Parker’s odds look TOO optimistic.
Trump HAS TO RUN OUT OF GAS.
He’s OBVIOUSLY not in ANY position to fund his own campaign — against Hillary’s $2,500,000,000.
Hillary is going to SIMPLY buy up EVERY air-second every media outlet is willing to whore.
IE 1000%
They not only love her corruption — they are its parasites.
Trump’s troops are like Imperial Japanese army troopers — in June of 1945.
Unable to “get the message.”
Baklava is right. This is a disaster. Hillary Clinton should be easy to beat but with Trump we lose.
blert,
Trumpians will end up like Japanese troopers on isolated islands, deep in the jungle eating grubs, not realizing Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended the war and the emperor surrendered. Next comes standing in lines in Guyana for cups of metaphorical kool-aid. Yuge losers!
Artfldgr,
“really?”
Yes, really.
If there is one thing about Trump which shows he shouldn’t be in power it is his sick obsession with Megan Kelly. That is sick stalker type of behavior.
The problem is that Hillary is even worse.
On a slightly different note, this quote by Travis Hale sums up my feeling about Rush Limbaugh quite well.
“Friday morning at 11:06 a.m., I tuned in to Limbaugh’s show, just as I do almost every day. Then I did something different: I turned his show off. Not out of anger or frustration, but out of respect for the man whose voice and ideals have served as my political compass through the years. Sadly, he’s not there anymore. And I’d rather remember him that way.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/275303-rush-limbaughs-lament
Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 — Ronald Reagan 39
In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.
[so much for the validity of polls, which are used to change peoples minds NOT inform them due the biological response that we want to side with the winner we are told is the winner, not be part of the losers. a LONG time ago, polls became a tool of influence NOT information. This change happens when socialism is the goal, not freedom]
The New York Times verified this poll,
Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
and those who refuse to learn from history, repeat it over and over and over
A Gallup Poll of July 26, 1988, showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. The New York Times reported,
Funny funny, in both cases the wrongness favored the same side… co-inky-dink?
In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
Franklin D. Roosevelt
Just because someone has an “unfavorable” view of Trump does NOT necessarily mean that they would not support and vote for him. It may merely mean that they have an even MORE “unfavorable” view of his opponents. It could also mean that they view his opponents as unable to win against the Democrat machine. There are many who are committed to ANYBODY but Hillary.
Polls Got It Seriously Wrong In Michigan’s Democratic Primary
In the famous New Hampshire upset in ’08, Clinton trailed Obama by 8 points. Big upset. But today, Sanders trailed Clinton by *21* and won. – Nate Silver
Why were the Iowa polls so wrong? – The Washington Post
Why were the polls in Michigan so wrong? – Washington Post
-=-=-=-=-=-
in 2012 – one of the best-known polling firms, however, that had among the worst results. In late October, Gallup consistently showed Mr. Romney ahead by about six percentage points among likely voters, far different from the average of other surveys. Gallup’s final poll of the election, which had Mr. Romney up by one point, was slightly better, but still identified the wrong winner in the election
By the way, you get similar bad results in the UK, Germany, etc…
I also can not with good conscience and any sense of self dignity, vote for Trump.
>>“We love Donald because he is a New Yorker just like us.”
Such shallowness and incompetence. The irony.
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Gee, neo — I hadn’t even posted and you’re already criticizing me! I hope you’re not confusing me with the Dodger.
In any case, the question is what the Trumpeters will do after the convention if the Donald doesn’t get it. I think that most of them are saying “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!” Maybe it’s just a hope, but I think that a substantial number will say, “Well, Cruz is mad as hell, too, so I think I can vote for him.”
Otherwise, the Republican Party has once again formed itself into a suicide squad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUHk2RSMCS8
Well, thanks to Pirate Cove we at last know what Neo looks like behind that damn apple.
“Maybe it’s just a hope, but I think that a substantial number will say, “Well, Cruz is mad as hell, too, so I think I can vote for him.””
Well, as my ol’ granpappy useta say, “Hope in one hand and sh_t in the other and see which fills up first.”
Artfldgr:
Yes, polls often get it wrong.
My point in my comment was that in this campaign season, Trump’s poll numbers on unfavorability have been very consistent, both across many polls and across time, which points to the greater likelihood of them being closer to the truth.
Another point is that, in this campaign season, Trump’s state-by-state poll numbers prior to each primary seem to be more right than wrong, more predictive than the numbers of the other candidates, and usually (not always, but often) within the margin of error. Whereas the other candidates’ numbers are the ones that are more often wrong.
What’s more (as I believe I explained in another post), it’s a curious fact in this election that the pre-primary polls have generally been wrong in the same direction: overestimating how Trump would do and underestimating how Cruz would do. If there is bias there, it seems to be a pro-Trump bias.
Richard Saunders:
Mea culpa!
I somehow turned “Geoffrey Britain” into “Richard Saunders.” Not sure how that happened.
Hangtown Bob:
I don’t think that anyone is suggesting that every single person with an unfavorable view of Trump—all 70% of them—would refuse to vote for Trump. But it’s a sign that he is highly unlikely to win, and his unfavorables are also considerably higher than Hillary’s, which is saying something.
Neo and Artfldgr,
Polls on Trumps negatives cannot change that dramatically better in my opinion beacuse I’m one of those who feel negatively about Trump.
My wife and I are sooooo negative that we cannot possibly have a single remark by Trump or single event or even a single month of good remarks erase our negativity.
Can Obama change our negative view of him? NO.
Can Trump change our negative view of him? No.
Trump has dug his hole so deep and I just can’t honestly see how anyone thinks he is the solutions.
I don’t put my faith in a man. I put my faith in ideas and solutions which many others have been speaking about for so long (but not Trump)
Baklava:
In other words, Trump has had a long enough time and enough exposure to rather fully reveal himself. Any change now would be suspect.
A new Trump-related article on National Review, a different analysis than I’ve seen before:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433806/donald-trump-wisconsin-primary-solid-core-support
Thought you guys might be interested.
exactly Neo
@(not so) artful dodger – as neo said, polls are snapshots in time. They don’t say with certainty what will be, but say what is more likely than not to be.
Don’t know your history, so don’t know if you were part of the crowd, along with many in “conservative” media, in 2012 who were saying the polls were wrong/biased/rigged, and that a “silent majority” of “shy republicans” were in the wings ready to vote GOP, therefore we shouldn’t pay the polls any heed.
They were WRONG (as in, not by a bit, but by a mile!).
Fell for that once… never again!
Say whatever you want, the current polls, in aggregate, are probably pretty close to the truth.
.
@G Britain – only disagree that Trump can unite the party if he were to win the nomination. Even wonder if Trump really wants to. Rather than attempting to broaden his appeal, he piles on more of the same (across all aspects of his campaign) that makes him repellent to begin with.
IMHO, it is really beyond repair at this point, as it is near impossible for Trump to credibly reverse all that (see Janetoo’s comment above – many others are already “there”). He has effectively closed his own “Overton Window”.
.
@blert – love your analogy wrt the Imperial Japanese troopers who are unable to “get the message”. On the other hand, Trump seems likely to engineer a split if he does not win the nomination with his plurality of delegates. More like the Japanese Army’s ordered civilian response on Okinawa, sadly.
Tied to the previous comment to G Britain, it is a hopeful speculation that Cruz could be a uniting force for both “moderates” and Trump supporters who aren’t yet prepared to go over the cliff, if he were to win the nomination.
Don’t know your history, so don’t know if you were part of the crowd
The uses and abuses of history
Trump surrogates have managed to move Mark Levin from the “I will vote for Trump if he is the GOP nominee….” into the “#NeverTrump” camp.
Sir Donald’s minions give minions a bad name.
I should probably do some work here in California to get Cruz votes since our primary will actually count for once. I mean, campaign work of course. I urge everyone who can to do the same — phone work, whatever you can do to get out the vote for Cruz. Otherwise…