Predicting the 2016 race
Fred Barnes says that “everybody got everything wrong” in trying to predict the 2016 race:
Nearly everything that was expected to happen in the 2016 presidential race hasn’t, and many things that weren’t expected have. The rise of Donald Trump””even that he would run””was not predicted. Nor was the fall of Scott Walker or the weakness of Jeb Bush’s candidacy. Polls have proved to be unreliable indicators of where the Republican and Democratic campaigns are headed. Hillary Clinton’s coronation as Democratic nominee, we were told, was a sure thing. Now she’s sliding toward underdog status…
The biggest change is the revolt of angry conservatives, who make up a large chunk of the GOP base.
I’ve got respect for Barnes, but my goodness: anyone with even a cursory familiarity with conservative blogs (or who has listened to Mark Levin’s show at least once, as I have) has to have known about the angry conservatives for at least the past four years, and probably a great deal longer than that.
And I’m sure I’m not the only one who doubted Jeb Bush’s drawing power in 2016, despite his money. In a post in early April titled “Jeb Bush: the candidate without a constituency” I wrote the following:
I’ve heard for years about the Republican “establishment” pushing this candidate or that candidate on the rank and file. Most of the time it’s seemed untrue to me.
But it seems absolutely on target with the current talk of Jeb Bush for 2016. He has no natural constituency. There is nothing special””or especially appealing””about him as a candidate. His name, IMHO, is a liability rather than an asset, both with Republicans and with Democrats.
So who would be voting for Bush in a primary? Darned if I know.
[NOTE: In choosing a category for this post, I thought about including him in “people of interest.” But the opposite is the point: he’s a person without interest.]
That’s not to say that Bush couldn’t pull it off somehow. But I consider it, and have always considered it, a longshot. One advantage Bush has, however—and it could end up mattering—is that aforementioned money. The candidates with less support will drop out because they can’t sustain their campaigns without an influx of money, and Bush already has a big war chest. Trump, of course, can go on and on, even without many donations, as long as he’s willing to spend his own money. Money is a big factor in campaigns, but as we’re learning with Bush, it’s not the only thing.
As for Hillary Clinton, she’s fallen further faster than I would have thought. It’s not so much because of the emails, although that hasn’t helped; I doubt her base cares much about them. It’s because her performances when put on the spot by a couple of tougher-than-usual questions has been less than stellar. She doesn’t appear sharp and she doesn’t appear trustworthy; she seems shifty, evasive, uncertain, false.
You may say that she’s always seemed that way. But if so, it’s a great deal more apparent now, so apparent that even some of her base is uneasy and is casting about for an alternative. Unfortunately for them, no really good alternative has shown up. If Biden is the best they can offer, he certainly might win, but I wouldn’t call that a strong candidate.
Who was it who said that Republicans were the party of old white folk? It appears right now to be the Democrats who answer to that description.
I never understood the inevitability of Jeb Bush for president. No one I knew was interested in voting for him. Most rolled their eyes (figuratively or in reality) when his name came up. There was zero enthusiasm voting for another Bush.
I liked G.W. Bush for his 9/11 response and military support. But I despise him for growing government with a brand-new, unneeded Dept. of Homeland Security and for not using the Republican majority he had to make real, effective changes to the tax code and social security…or even truly cutting back on government in some meaningful way. I will not be fooled again by the ‘compassionate conservative’ nonsense nor the ‘I can work with the other side’ junk.
I want a very very tough conservative when it comes to taxes, budget, immigration, etc. Jeb ain’t it. Never was it. Never were going to convince anyone he was it.
I don’t despise Bush for his profligate spending. He was under siege throughout his entire presidency, everything he did was politicized by the losers in the media and the opposing party. He spent to keep the noise down so he could get the important things done – and now those accomplishments have been ruined by Obama.
At the time, I wished he hadn’t done that. It didn’t make any difference at all, politically. He was still hated and misrepresented at levels that, in a sane nation, would be seen as comically OTT. But he wasn’t president of a sane nation.
Why is it surprising that a RINO establishment journalist would finally deign to notice the widespread conservative anger? It’s Trump’s level of support that has forced them to barely acknowledge that reality.
As for Jeb Bush’s actual electability, the base has heretofore voted for the ‘lesser’ of two evils, why should it be different this time? Plus, there is a compelling argument to be made that the GOP establishment would rather lose than have an actual conservative win.
“And let me tell you why. … [The majority GOP] listens to one and only one voice: that is, the voice of the Washington cartel, of the lobbyists on K Street, of the big money and big corporations.” Sen. Ted Cruz
Hillary’s low poll numbers are a direct result of the Obama directed media campaign of death by a thousand cuts. Drip, drip, drip comes the never ending email revelations.
“State Dept. due to release latest batch of Clinton emails”
“A federal judge has ordered the State Department to release all of Clinton’s work emails in monthly batches through to January 2016″…
So, for the next 3-4 months, a new batch of emails will be released… every month.
I was speaking with my son (a Marine finishing out his service with the State Department) this week about Jeb. We are both in the camp that will not be voting for him if he is the nominee. He made the point that the fact that he is running is proof that he doesn’t have the country’s best interests at heart. Our country does not need another Bush. (And we were great supporters of the last Bush because of his protection of our country when we were attacked.)
Sharon, why would we even need Bush III? Is he going to pull Bush II back in and make a dynasty alliance and put the hurt on the Leftists?
If not, what is the entire point of having a political dynasty anyways, when the barbarians are at the gates and the traitors are inside opening the gates?
It makes no sense, Bush III, Jeb, is thinking of a different war in a different world, not this one we are fighting now.
Once it is obvious jeb! is a lost cause the gope will flock to Rubio. I see Rubio as a member of the gope, but I also see him as the best of that flock. He is not in my top 3, yet IMO he would do well campaigning against any of the current ‘progressive’ candidates who wins the nomination. Still going with a Biden-Warren ticket for the dems because Hillary is yesterday’s tabloid.
Besides Jeb being boring and condescending, I get the sense from watching him that he’s that he’s annoyed at having to tolerate all of these questions and competitors who are merely delaying the inevitable. Like a father who is running out of patience with the kids.
Warren, the Great white Indian hope.
Even early on, I expected the lack of support for Jeb. I call that attitude “apathy.”
What I didn’t expect was the seething hatred that has led to support for Trump.
Some hatred will be necessary to clear out dead wood like McConnell, but Trump is a bridge too far.
Unfortunately the Presidential candidates cannot all be tested, which is usually what a parliamentary system is good for.
What is important now is to gather predictions and judgments, and then see if later out they pan out to be true.
Wisdom, if such a thing exists, may come from that.
The GOP elites selected Jeb as their man The big contributors poured $103 million into his campaign coffers. The RNC changed the rules to make it much harder for an insurgent to beat their man. They encouraged a bunch of wannabes to run, so they would split the primary votes to make Jeb look good. That was the plan.
Donald Trump. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have thrown that plan into a cocked-hat.
Last time around, we had flashes in the pan, like Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain, who flared up in the polls but got taken down soon after.
This time is different. The three outsiders have maintained their leads over the GOP establishment.
How can that be? The reason is that the conservative base, the 1.3 million people who showed up in DC on 9/12/2009, and the millions more who couldn’t make it, are furious with the GOP. They gave the GOP the house in 2010 and added the Senate in 2014. What did they get in return? Insults and nothing. We still have Obamacare. Obama reigns unchecked. The EPA is unchecked. The borders are still wide open and $10 heroin hits are flooding in from Mexico and addicting our kids. The last is personal, BTW.
The only regular politician who can connect with the cold anger of the conservative base is Ted Cruz. But he is too far behind and falsely stuck with the extremist label for sticking to his principles. He’d make a great Attorney General.
We’ve stopped watching Fox News for the most part. Spending time on CNN instead. Prime-time last night (9/30) was Trump time. Lemon interviewed him, asked tough but fair questions, which Trump handled with ease, and Trump got an hour of prime-time air-time for free, Little wonder he said his campaign was ahead of schedule and under budget, just like his buildings. Fox News gave into Trump and he is now back getting free campaign spots on Fox.
How does any other candidate get that free air-time? And he uses that air-time effectively. So, it is hard to see how Trump fades any time soon. It is not his wealth that is getting him that exposure; it is his celebrity status and his mastery of the media.
Fiorina and Carson won’t be able to compete in getting anything like the exposure Trump is winning. It is an unfair fight. Trump = ratings. They don’t.
Trump is also messaging Reagan democrats and the biggest private sector unions. Do you think his comments about Ford building a $12 billion plant in Mexico are aimed at conservatives? Not really. UAW members and leadership? You think? Heck, the Teamsters are holding off endorsing Hillary. Maybe they will endorse Trump, just as they endorsed Reagan.
As someone horrified at what Obama has been able to achieve in his “transformation of America”, I pray we find a president who can restore America.
Trump is about the only candicate that can or wants to reverse or correct things..
even more articles are coming out looking to how fiorina is completely two faced depending on who she is trying to ingratiate herself to.
you want a big change to ACA, well she is for the mandate so that wont happen
you want a change to the border, well she is for an open border, but with more checks.. (ie the same old same old nothing will change)
and a whole lot more
the others are not much different
think they will act to clean house?
not likely.
the reason you feel that trump will be bad is because the left controls feelings of the general population… so much so that they got obama elected twice…
if not trump… we are screwed definitely
with trump… we may be screwed but might not
if the left, hrc or biden, we will be so screwed, screwed will be a synonym for normal
My prediction for 2016. The establishment wings of both parties are so appalled by the leads of Trump and Sanders that they change the rules to give the nominations to Jeb and Hillary. Bernie is so angry he accepts the Socialist nomination. Trump creates the Magnificent Trump Party and anoints himself leader for life and nominee for prez.
Mid-October polls shows all four in a dead heat. Psychiatrists report a sharp uptick in nervous breakdowns. A week before the election, emergency rooms report an increase in attempted suicides. The weekend before the election, Canada announces that the sudden swarm of refugees has overwhelmed its emergency infrastructure and requires it to close its southern border.
The day before the election, Canada calls out the military and authorizes the use of deadly force along the border. That evening, Mexico closes its northern border and calls out the military.
At sunrise on election day, the Bahamas and several other nations in Caribbean say no more. At noon, Haiti says it will have to turn away boats.
And finally, as the polls start to close on election day, Cuba announces that it can take no more refugees from the USA.
😉
I could have added Syria and Venezuela, but I didn’t want to be absurd. They’re too far away.