Those computer models…
…may have overstated the case with the volcano and its effect on airplanes:
Flawed computer models may have exaggerated the effects of an Icelandic volcano eruption that has grounded tens of thousands of flights, stranded hundreds of thousands of passengers and cost businesses hundreds of millions of euros.
The computer models that guided decisions to impose a no-fly zone across most of Europe in recent days are based on incomplete science and limited data, according to European officials. As a result, they may have over-stated the risks to the public, needlessly grounding flights and damaging businesses.
“It is a black box in certain areas,” Matthias Ruete, the EU’s director-general for mobility and transport, said on Monday, noting that many of the assumptions in the computer models were not backed by scientific evidence.
Gee, wonder what that reminds me of?
And somehow, the following differences between the rules in the US and Europe do not surprise me either:
“If you take the situation across the Atlantic, there the advice would probably be: don’t fly over the volcano. Otherwise, it is up to you to take the precautions necessary,” Mr Ruete said.
While the US system leaves air carriers with the responsibility to determine whether or not it is safe to fly “the American model is not a model of less safety”, he said. “You just need to look at the statistics to see that.”
Under European rules, member states have the power to decide whether or not their airspace should be open. But decisions during the past week have been guided by computer models from the Volcanic Ash Centre in London and Eurocontrol, an organisation that co-ordinates air travel.
Sure wish I could read the stupid article !
I’m not going to register to another website FT.com!!!
I don’t think we need to read the article. I’ll bet it’s a thousand words that could have been condensed to one sentence. “Socialist guided computer model portrays puzzling anti capitalist and anti freedom results”.
Objectivity is demonstrated by a willingness to devise experiments that try to disprove the hypothesis wrong. Since even scientists are human and don’t want to see their work reputed, we rely on peer review. But what happens when dogma rules the peers? Confirmation bias.
The computer models have “confirmation bias” programmed into them. The underlying hypothesis is assumed as fact (AIDS, global warming, evolution) and resists scientific evidence to the contrary. As the general theory is reformed and defended it grows more and more complex–the exact opposite of true scientific research which produces simplicity in law and successful predictions.
No wonder Obama and his czars and friends believe in words and expertise and ridicule. They use them to create their own world. In no way, do they exhibit a scientific temperment or committment.
Thinking about computer models as something “scientific” staggers everybody who ever built them. Without comparison with results of physical experiment or observation, they are simply tools of self-deception. They embody our speculations, and that is it. But they make us wrongly believe that after computer coding these speculations became somewhat “more objective”.
Models can’t accurately predict our weather one month to the next but somehow are gospel to the global warmists. Ignore stellar activity, ignore the ocean’s ability to sink heat, and pretend the minute fraction of CO2 and methane from our cars and belching cows are melting the snows of Mt. Kilomanjaro. Oh the horror!
I have to agree about the climate models referred to in the comments, but as regards the ash fall from the icelandic volcano, we have sattelite imagry. No models required.
I disagree with the jist of this statement though.
I also take issue with this bit of stupidity and frankly expect more from the commenters here,
As for keeping the airlines on the ground, please think of this, we are talking human life here. The infinitely greater tragedy would be allowing the airlines to resume operations and having a jet crash, with all of the accompanying loss of human life because of damage to its engines from volcanic ash. For what, some airline’s profitability? Get real!
A volcanic ash incident happened to a KLM flight over Alaska back in ’89. I remeber reading about it then. They fell from 31,000 ft to around 14,000 ft before regaining control. (going from memory on that)
Imagine yourself and/or your loved ones in a falling airliner, then talk to me about needlessly hampering the airlines profitability. Please, a little perspective is in order.
Let me point out how wrong they are…
ever go to the hardware store, and buy expensive sand paper? what was the ‘sand’ made from?
usually one of a class of substances… the more expensive being silicon carbide…
now… imagine how sand blasting works
instead this time the sand is slow and the object is moving fast through it.
but the BEST part, is in the engine.
the engines are turbines. lots of tiny blades, spining around at really high speeds.
so, imagine pouring a half cup of silicon carbide into your engine combustino chambers.
the sand starts to sand down everything.
the paint comes off the plane..
the blades of the turbines change shape
as they do, they cause dead spots for material to gather.
the windshields of the plane get sanded a nice frosted white.
but wait! thats not all!!!
given that this is so large… charges can separate. and so not only do you have all that, but the particles are charged, and you have lightning and electrical problems flash over your plane as the particles dump charge and the plane has no way to get rid of it.
all kinds of things can happen. the major focus is on engines… but you can also wear away the top of a rivet… that would cause the skin of the plane to peel off (remember what happened to the people when that happened to a prior flight).
the big thing is that as a bureaucracy, they can declare this, save the money, and no one can be blamed for the few planes that drop.
oh… and i forgot..
the clouds are also filled with things like sulfer dioxide. you know, the stuff that turns into sulfuric acid in your eyse to make you cry.
so yes, the planes will be flying through clouds.
so imagine how hostile this is..
your basically flying through clouds of silcon carbide, softer material, and sulfuric acid.
ever drop a TINY piece of aluminum in sulfuric acid?
ever drop magnesium? (titanium is ok)
all this is not good…
and so, even if a plane has no problems
you can guarantee that you just shortened its air lifetime by many years on that one flight.
oh… and since flights dont carry air tanks, breating can be a problem as there are more noxious things than sulfer in those clouds.
things like hydrogen bromide.
you dont want to know what happens when a person breathes that in.
the point is that to socialists, life is cheap and means nothing… but economics and taxes is everything to the leadership of con men.
Here’s an excerpt from the Anchorage Daily News regarding the incident in Dec. 16, 1989.
Think about that versus some f&*$@ing airlines profit.
here is osha
http://www.osha.gov/SLTC/healthguidelines/hydrogenbromide/recognition.html
Hydrogen bromide is a colorless, corrosive, nonflammable gas with a sharp, unpleasant, pungent odor. The air odor threshold concentration for hydrogen bromide is 2.0 parts per million (ppm) parts of air.
The current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) for hydrogen bromide is 3 ppm (10 milligrams per cubic meter (mg/m(3)) as an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA) concentration [29 CFR 1910.1000, Table Z-1].
Exposure to hydrogen bromide can occur through inhalation, ingestion, and eye or skin contact
now the fun stuff…
Effects on Humans: Hydrogen bromide is a strong primary irritant of the eyes, skin, and mucous membranes of the upper respiratory tract. In an experimental setting, several minutes of exposure to hydrogen bromide at a concentration of 5 ppm caused nose irritation in all six subjects and throat irritation in one of the six [ACGIH 1991]. Long-term exposure may cause chronic nasal and bronchial discharge and chronic indigestion [Sittig 1991]. Skin, eye, or mucous membrane contact with hydrogen bromide solutions may result in severe burns and necrosis [Sittig 1991; NLM 1992]. Ingestion of the liquid can produce burns to the mouth and stomach [NLM 1992]. At high concentrations, inhalation may result in lung injury or death. Exposure to concentrations of between 1,300 and 2,000 ppm has resulted in death [NLM 1992].
do you all realize how small 2000 ppm is?
Tim P: I’m not arguing that the ash was safe to fly through. I’m just saying computer modeling isn’t necessarily especially relevant, especially in its predictive value. There are other and better ways to make a judgment about the dangers involved.
In general, I would rather they err on the side of caution. But it’s not just the airlines’ profit that’s at stake. The problem is that the longer it goes on the more it stands to affect the entire economy of Europe and even the world, because we are so interrelated and so dependent on air travel.
Tim P,
the planes engine parts cant crush the silicon carbide..
[as it has done humans who have walked past the front]
so in essence the sand gets between the turbine blades and the wall, and they make a kind of double recess and pin construction. that is, one side gets a partial ditch, the other side gets a partial ditch, and one of these almost as hard as diamond pieces like the ball bearing lock.
want to know how and why they survived?
the engines cooled, and the distance between the wall and turbines separated. the sand was able to fall out of these tiny lock holes and once released they were able to start them up again.
otherwise, the engines just stay seized.
Time saved them
Isnt physics fun? 🙂
TimP,
You obviously don’t get the story’s hint of the pattern in recent “scientific” bogus computer models. And i’m sorry i don’t buy your superior concern for air traveler safety, as you’d surely do something about the more dangerous taxi rides to and from airports.
Tim bro !
Who wants airlines to fly through “ash” for profit???
Sometimes I think I’m in lala land…
See this image
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/446278main1_VSHiceland109_MO-670.jpg
Good text and images here
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/iceland-volcano-plume.html
We could get the nanny state to impound the volcano for breaking planet earth and airlines no smoking policy.
There were several things involved in this decision. One was obviously the effect of the ash on the plane. I heard somewhere that the fact that the eruption was under a glacier made the ash more dangerous than it would normally be because of its interaction with ice. There was also talk about its effect on navigational equipment, not just on the engines. People expected this situation to improve within few days as the ice melted.
The second thing involved is the way the ash is blowing. This may be where the computer models come in. The problem here is trying to figure where danger areas might occur along the routes during the whole time the plane is in flight.. Possible rerouting mid flight would be a nightmare for flight control, airlines, and passengers.
In addition, you have an enormous problem of managing information for passengers before the flight. Do you want all those passengers coming to the airport and waiting around for for a possible opening? It is a logistic nightmare.
I saw some pilots on TV pooh poohing the shutdown and others agreeing with it. Given so many uncertainties, I would rather be safe than sorry.
Just so people dont forget…
it USED to be the call of the airlines…
and so the state was never responsible
as the state had no power to stop commercial air flight
though i will point out that when change comes
that little feature will prevent seeing the great egress.
after all, in the past, the airline would make the call, and people would choose to trust the airline or not.
if they died, the airline would lose trust and money and if they lived it would gain it over the others.
over time, the system would sort things as to which airlines were trusted or not in different situations, and so the economy would decide.
but we are not free, we just think we are as no one has tightened things yet to the point we feel it over us all the time in our daily lives.
so the idea of the state taking on this responsibility, the state is also learning it comes with the liability.
one choice maker, one to blame, one always guilty
how is the state to pay for what its liable for in conjunction with its competency level?
so now you know the answer.
by lowering your value, they lower the payoff on the liability, as recompense is cheap enough to not care to the results of actions. (by owning everything including you, it becomes an act upon ones own property which one has a right to act on)
its fundamental to a state not run on merit and centralized…
if they really valued life or did not own the people, they would have to have merit, and if they had merit, they would not have to be dirty, hiding, conniving, colluding, con persons.
they would win the debate, and they would then be able. but since they win by cheating, they are not able.
tyrannies are always the incapable against the capable.
there is no such thing as a tyranny of the competent, as the competent would not need tyranny…
I’m from Anchorage, Alaska, and while I had moved away by 1989 my parents still lived there. I recall my father telling me about this incident.
Basically, Mt. Redoubt is to the southwest of Anchorage, and the ash plume extended east from the mountain more or less across the standard flight path from Seattle. Most of the airlines shut down and refused to fly to or from Anchorage. Alaska Airlines, on the other hand, at that time still in touch with its bush pilot heritage, continued service by the outrageous expedient of, well, flying *around* the ash plume and approaching Anchorage from the north.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that the Continent-wide shutdown is due more to an excess of obedience than to any lack of safe alternatives.
Artfldgr: that was the subject matter of the second quote. Apparently in the US there is still more airline discretion. In Europe the call is more centralized and governmental. No surprise, that.
Al Gore says don’t confuse the flawed computer models that may have exaggerated the effects of an Icelandic volcano eruption with the great computer models that have “settled the science” of global warming.
In Europe’s post modern deconstructed world, the link between cause and effect doesn’t philosophically exist anymore. This is government of the incompetent because reality is just to darn hard. Plus, there’s no alternative or check.
“Close enough for who its for” is what we get when we remove competition.
If European nations had not cut their navies and military ground transport to the bone, they could move some stranded people across the English channel or to areas in southern and eastern Europe where flights are still operating. Someone had better get real creative or the impact on shaky economies could be severe.
Gee, their track record with models makes me even more approving of their erring on the side of caution, Thanks Tim P 🙂 as someone who flew 100,000 miles last year…
Volcanic ash comes in many shapes and chemical compositions of particles. Some types are dangerous, some are harmless. Without direct physical experimentation it is impossible to estimate the danger. When a dozen of planes without passengers made test flights in the ash cloud and were later examined, no traces of abrasion were found. I trust these experiments much more than any models.
World Airways Jet Grounded In Europe, Possible Engine Damage From Ash
http://www.businessinsider.com/world-airways-jet-grounded-in-europe-possible-engine-damage-2010-4
SteveH Says:
TimP,
You obviously don’t get the story’s hint of the pattern in recent “scientific” bogus computer models.
Yes I do re-read my first post, especially, “I have to agree about the climate models referred to in the comments, but as regards the ash fall from the icelandic volcano, we have sattelite imagry. No models required.”
And i’m sorry i don’t buy your superior concern for air traveler safety,
Fine, then you get on an airliner that will quite possibly fly through a volcanic ash cloud. I’ll wait thank you very much.
as you’d surely do something about the more dangerous taxi rides to and from airports.
False comparison my friend. You can order the taxi to stop and get out whenever you want, but on an airliner you must remember that we are all hostages once the wheels leave the ground.
Oh and speaking of not getting the story, it was you who said, “I don’t think we need to read the article.”
Followed up by,” I’ll bet it’s a thousand words that could have been condensed to one sentence.
Followed by the tripe I originally cited, “Socialist guided computer model portrays puzzling anti capitalist and anti freedom results”.
I can understand you being upset after;
a) not grasping my first quote about computer models regarding weather/climate
b) not grasping my comment about the fact that there is real time sattelite imagry, making models totally unnecessary
c)being called on that stupid quote you made that I cited earlier.
Nothing personal, it was stupid, admit it. If/when I say something stupid, feel free to call me on it.
No sattelite imagery is available to assess the spread of volcanic ash cloud. This is a well-known problem: aerosoles content can’t be meausured from orbit. All these computer models were used exactly to predict this spread from weather patterns, as explained in wattsup site.
See details at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/19/ash-cloud-models-overrated-a-word-on-post-normal-science-by-dr-jerome-ravetz/#more-18699
Sergey,
Take a look at this NASA photo and tell me again about no sattelite imagry being available.
A quick Google or Bing inquiry will set you straight.
For your information, volcanic ash is not an aerosol for Christ’s sake. I live near a volcano, several in fact. If you’d like I’ll send you a bag of said aerosol that I brushed off of my car last fall.
Sergey, better yet, just go to this page of a quick search inquiry and you can see a whole bunch of sattelite imagry for the volcano.
Oh, the ash I referred to above was from last spring, not last fall. Sorry about that.
Sergey,
It appears you are correct about using the term aerosol. I spoke too soon.
However, as you can see, volcanic ash plumes ARE visible to sattelites. I still hold out the offer for a bag of said ‘aerosol’.
Tim, what is settled down NEAR volcano is not aerosol, it is just ash. Aerosols are airborn fraction, and it covers huge spaces, up to the whole globe surface. Around volcano powerful upgoing airflows exist, and they can drag large particle up to several miles. This is called a plum, it can reach stratosphere in major eruptions. It can be seen on sattelite photo; but airborn cloud consists of much more tiny particles and is largely invisible. Eventually it covered most of Europe.
All information I have about engine damage recently is about fighter jets. But they have another type of engines, with higher temperatures and supersonic flows in them. The dynamics of supersonic flows is qualitatively different from subsonic ones. It can not be generalised from one type of engine to another.