1. Unemployment number up or down doesn’t matter to me.

   What matters to me is that *I* am unemployed with little to no job opportunities – especially since the only job offerings these days do NOT include benefits such as paid holidays, paid vacations, health care, etc. The only offerings nowadays seem to be hourly contract work.

   And I do NOT want the government to offer those benefits to me nor demand that private employers offer them; I want a free market, booming economy in which I get to choose which employer offers me the best – make them scramble for employees!

   Romney gets that; Obama (and other small minded leftists) do not.

2. I have to be realistic about the American voters – all of them – not just us well informed conservatives. The Democrats are looking for ANYTHING they can say positive about the economy.

   Most voters will only see and hear the bottom line number – 7.8% which is below the 8% they’ve been hearing about for months. It will seem to them like unemployment is dropping quickly now. Any further analysis will seem like excuse making on the part of the Republican campaign.

   Obama’s campaign will exploit this to the max. We DO need to counter that as well as we can but we need to redouble our efforts in every area.

   Spin it any way ya wanna…this number hurts Romney’s campaign. Won’t be the end of the ball game, but it WILL have an effect.

   So….LET’S KEEP FIGHTING WITH ALL WE GOT.

3. texexec: I’m not at all sure you’re right. I think that economically savvy people know these numbers aren’t particularly meaningful. But will the general public, people who don’t necessarily parse the statistics in detail, see a drop of a couple of tenths of a percentage point, to a figure that’s still way too high, as especially meaningful?

   I guess it continues to come down to the American public and how gullible it is. Its like if your boyfriend or girlfriend has been a raging alcoholic for years, and then for a month has an intake of a drink a day less, and asks you to elope with him/her. Do you believe that things are looking up enough to marry them?

4. Keith Hall: “There’s nothing wrong with the numbers. The only issue is the interpretation of the numbers. The numbers are what they are.”

   Such is the stuff of pervasive corruption: there’s nothing wrong with the numbers – there’s something wrong with the method — not counting the unemployed who’ve resigned themselves to being unemployed — but there’s nothing wrong with the numbers.

   Why stop there? Don’t count those resigned to unemployment. Count those unemployed as employed on the basis of their being occupied looking for working and voila! Full employment.

5. George Pal: I believe the statistics released includes that rate, too. If you read the Pethoukoukis article I linked, you’ll see that it talks about two important things—the statistics on part-time jobs, and the fact that what’s known as the U-6 unemployment rate (the broader measure that includes those who’ve dropped out of the job market) remains the same. The government release covers those things, and so the “numbers” actually include what you’re talking about. It’s the media and political spin that matters, actually; the numbers are right there.

   From the BLS report:

   The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1 percent of the unemployed…

   The overall trend in the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat…The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

   In September, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

   Those are all quotes from the report. Those are part of “the numbers.” I agree with you, however, that it’s the long-term unemployed figures that matter. But this is the way it’s always reported, for Republican or Democratic administrations. It’s the media spin that differs depending on who’s in charge of the government: positive for Democrats, negative for Republicans.

6. However, an analysis of the numbers gives a solution that is just too pat:

   This courtesy of the cynical geniuses at zero hedge

   Here’s a peculiar statistical aberration:

   -Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
   -Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)
   -> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

   Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds… Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

7. It’s the miracle of loaves and fishes all over again:

   ” In what can only be described as a miracle, the September federal government jobs report shows that over 456,000 people gained employment through the creation of only 114,000 new positions!”

8. And boy, am I ever getting tired of putting so many posts in that “press” category. But the topic comes up again and again and again.

   That’s because the press is the enemy.

9. “texexec: I’m not at all sure you’re right. I think that economically savvy people know these numbers aren’t particularly meaningful. But will the general public, people who don’t necessarily parse the statistics in detail, see a drop of a couple of tenths of a percentage point, to a figure that’s still way too high, as especially meaningful?

   I guess it continues to come down to the American public and how gullible it is. Its like if your boyfriend or girlfriend has been a raging alcoholic for years, and then for a month has an intake of a drink a day less, and asks you to elope with him/her. Do you believe that things are looking up enough to marry them?”

   Neo, I earnestly hope you are right. I agree with you that economically sophisticated people won’t be swayed by these numbers. But, I meant to say that many, many Americans ARE very gullible.

   Plus, I was trying to make the point, perhaps not very well, that we crossed the 8% point. Lots of people’s brains will say…”we were having 8 something percent unemployment and now we are having 7 something percent unemployment…we’re dropping about 1% a month now – the more careful ones will say – we dropped 0.3% last month…keep that up and we will be 3.6% down in a year…not so bad.”

   I know this for a fact…stock prices tend to trade towards even numbers…$15 per share, as opposed to $15.02 per share.

10. they will later revise the numbers to the real ones as they usually do…

    great heat graph in the article below

    Why Did the Unemployment Rate Drop?
    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/why-did-the-unemployment-rate-drop-9/

    The U.S. unemployment rate tumbled to 7.8% in September but a broader measure was flat at 14.7%.

    One possible explanation: The Labor Department revised up its estimate of payroll growth in July and August, but the unemployment rate doesn’t get revised. So it’s possible the big one-month drop in the unemployment really reflects improvements over the past two or three months.

    -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

    Though the headline of the household survey looks good, the fact that a broader rate of unemployment didn’t budge presents a puzzle. The unemployment rate is calculated based on the number of unemployed – people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks. The “actively looking for work” definition is fairly broad, including people who contacted an employer, employment agency, job center or friends; sent out resumes or filled out applications; or answered or placed ads, among other things. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the total number of people in the labor force.

    now, given i make my living doing math…

    if they wanted to show you what was real, they would use a figure of able bodies people who could work… (ie everyone of working age not disabled, retired, etc).

    then they would calculate how many of them are working, and give you a real rate.

    the way this is calculated.. they get a saving grace in worst times (ie, people fall off the looking category, but are still able bodies, and so are just not counted)… the people who have fallen off before, the welfare people, and so on.

    so in reality, if you wanted an unemployment figure derived the way it was at the start of the depression, rather than politburo games with the reports… you wont get it.

    If you look at historical data, you will find the unemployment rate reached an all time high of 24.9 percent in the 1930’s when the United States entered The Great Depression. In 1923 to 1929 it was as low as 3.3 percent until it jumped to 15.9 percent in 1931. By 1933 it reached 24.9 percent. That pales in comparison to the percent that was reported today. Or does it?

    If you look at the way unemployment was calculated in the 1930’s, you will find that the numbers we use today to calculate unemployment are dramatically different.

    and i am just the kind of guy to let you know

    [note that savvy business men who have money do their own calculations.. duh]

    In the 1930’s, when they calculated unemployment they were including a workforce of children, including those who were just 14 and 15 years old. Because of child labor laws, only those 16 and older who have already entered the work force are counted today.

    so all those teens who dont work, they are not counted now, but they were counted then.

    Those who are considered self-employed today have also been eliminated from the percentages of the workforce that were included in the percentages in the 1930’s.

    and

    they are now eliminating those who are not actively searching for employment. If a person gives up on looking for a job and does not report to the unemployment office, for example, when their benefits have run out and they can’t draw a payment any longer, they are no longer counted in the figures today

    and Obama admin has been blind extending them several times…

    When you take into account these three factors alone in addition to some other minor factors, “current unemployment numbers would be between 5% and 10% higher if calculated in the same way as in the past; conversely, the numbers from the 1930s and 1940s would be 5% – 10% lower if calculated using our contemporary methods.”

    AND if you include welfare, which they didnt have in 1930… that number actually jumps up to something more like a 40% unemployment rate.

    every person they sign up for benefits comes off the bad side of that report. so they been signing them up like crazy to lower the unemployment rolls. (no one has caught this yet, but i have)

    Official figures leave no doubt as to the alarming rise in federal welfare payments since the president took the oath of office in January 2009. The Survey of Income and Program Participation from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that by the end of 2011, nearly 110 million individuals lived in households that received benefits–an increase of 13 million in the first three years of the Obama presidency.

    if there were no welfare, there would be 13 million extra people on that unemployment roll…

    “Welcome to Obama’s America: nearly half the population is not represented on a taxable return–almost exactly the same proportion that lives in a household where at least one member receives some type of government benefit. We are becoming the 50–50 nation–half of us paying the taxes, the other half receiving the benefits.” – newsreek

    of course there are tons of articles that are saying the rolls are shrinking, especially in ohio, but i will bet that they arent, they are just changing the way they calculate.

    its really hard to get good numbers as they use special terms and change them, so its harder to find things if you don’t know what the key is.

    The Three Scariest Government Charts
    http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-10/the-three-scariest-government-charts.aspx?storyid=179068

    Of course, you won’t hear a single word about this tonight during the first Presidential Debate. Both sides of the aisle spend too much time bickering and campaigning, instead of educating. No doubt, tonight promises to be a continuation of that trend.

    That’s why I’ve decided to step up and summarize the future of America in three simple charts for you.

    If you’re financially or politically illiterate – or both – it doesn’t matter. We can all spot trends. And these three trends should scare the living hell out of everyone.

    i have shown graphs starting years ago…
    now we get to see them and compare to what i said then… no?

    The newswires are overrun with complaints about our spending on two things: interest on our debt and defense. But you know what? These two outlays only account for about 26.5% of federal spending, combined.

    Meaningful? Yes! Worth freaking out about? Nope.

    Not when you consider something else that accounts for a whopping 65% of federal spending. What am I talking about? Payments to individuals via programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, public assistance, food and housing assistance, and unemployment assistance.

    FIRST wake up image:
    http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/wallstreet-research/charts/1012-GovSpending.png

    [anyone other than me realize ancillary things that this graph above implies outside just economy?]

    Almost two out of every three dollars spent by the federal government goes to individuals now, according to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). That’s up from less than one out of every six dollars in 1952.
    

    so Obama’s numbers are so large because less than 25% of the economy is supporting 65% of the economy who hates them… (those in the 25% that happen to be Volk, can get their tax money back by participating in many many programs, which then puts the burden on white Jewish men, and white other men)

    the next graph is related to what i just said above… WHAT the scapegoats are paying the Volk who beat them, rob them, keep them from school, attack their religion, favor other religions, etc… (so much like Germany, only the people inside wouldn’t recognize it as they cant step back to see that its EXACTLY the same, but without the trendy outfits)

    http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/wallstreet-research/charts/1012-Taxes.png

    SMELLING SALTS PLEASE!!!!
    seems we lost a few people on that graph..

    For 50 years (1950 – 2000), the percent of American’s paying no taxes stayed range-bound between 20% and 25%. In the last decade, though, it’s almost doubled.
    

    now… remember that the purpose of Keynes economic ideas was for a transition from capitalism to socialism… 🙂 [but you have to read the books back then, not the scrubbed stuff today]

    “When you put these two trends together, what you find is that the federal government has over the years essentially turned into a gigantic wealth-transfer machine – taking money from a shrinking pool of taxpayers and giving it out to a growing list of favored groups.” – John Merline, of Investor’s Business Daily
    

    As i said.. you guys are a bit late to stop the revolution, it happened already…

    “This situation will make getting the federal budget under control increasingly difficult, since it will invariably involve pitting those writing checks against those cashing them.”- John Merline, of Investor’s Business Daily

    ya think? what do you think they will do logically either branch Romney takes?

    can any one other than me say RIOT?

    can any one other than me get the freaky creepy idea that the reason Obama didn’t care about the debate is that he doesn’t have to care… [he knows what you dont, and he also knows to what extreme he will go, and what deals he has with other states to help that (As if they like him and dont want to take advantage of him)]

    Forget about the transfer of wealth from present-day Americans, they’re also transferring the wealth of future Americans..
    

    and here is the graph of the borrowing being done to pay for it:
    http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/wallstreet-research/charts/1012-MoreDebt.png

    and now.. i artfldgr, will add the 4th graph, the one that is missing… the M# graphs

    The Fed ceased publishing M-3, its broadest money supply measure, in March 2006.

    convenient eh?

    http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply

    Series: True Money Supply
    http://mises.org/content/nofed/chart.aspx

    The TMS consists of the following: Currency Component of M1, Total Checkable Deposits, Savings Deposits, U.S. Government Demand Deposits and Note Balances, Demand Deposits Due to Foreign Commercial Banks, and Demand Deposits Due to Foreign Official Institutions.

    the page is good as its actually a program that generates the graph and you can play with the settings to see…

    now… can you see why the hyper attention to a figure like this to blow others out of consideration? and also to get people to ignore that unemployment numbers are generally revised a few weeks later, either up or down… (And so far in Obama world, the revisions are all down, after they are up… ie. we tell you they are up, you remember that, they lower them, you don’t remember that)

    depending on what setting you use, you can see all kinds of things… like the explosion in bs starting the year after the election after the soviet union ‘restructured’ (what do you think perestroika means?).

    ie. it exploded from bill Clinton term…
    you know, the guy who went to soviet union instead of Vietnam under a fullbright scholarship (The same Fulbright thought to be a soviet and investigated).

11. I guess it continues to come down to the American public and how gullible it is.

    RIGHT…

    so its easy to see which are the MOST gullible as they are the ones getting the most goodies to get them to sell themselves into slavery…

    women
    race groups
    gays

    Put together they make 2/3

    ду́ры; все мужики́ – сво́лочи

    “Every woman is stupid, every man a bastard”

    so the Russians say…

    its quite true today under feminism, no? everyone is stupid and hurting their family, their fellow men, the state, and even their own future (as welfare mommas will vote to force earning women to pay for them)

    Divide and Conquer..

    however the one group that is the target is the target because it adapts, and is not as dim, and so on.

    the men are conceding the field so women can pay the high taxes, and support them. if not, they are marrying foreign women, and the western women are finding that when they are ready, all they got are defective empties they helped create… the gays are acting so nasty, the blow back will be a throwback… and race groups? heck, they will just do to them what they do to them in the countries they fled for to get away from what they are voting for here..

    TANSTAAFL!!!!!!!!!!!!

    you can lay it out on paper easy… and put a time line on it, and show them, but they wont stop, listen, change direction, etc.. (Especially the women who are not bright enough to see that they are working cross purposes to themselves!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

    they are still the biggest voting block that can be bribed for their hatred of the scapegoats (Which are the exact same ones from germany… fancy that… and we all know how well THAT turned out… better than the soviets!)

12. Vanderlun: It’s been a season for loaves and fishes. whether the miracle is how the same polls who report an electorate disapproving of the president, show the same electorate are eager to reelect him, or the miracle of the mysterious and perfectly timed unemployment anomalies.
    I mistook BO’s disinterested and unconcerned demeanor during the debate. He wasn’t distracted by anything. He was expecting the debate to be forgotten before the week was out when the next lie hit the media.
    Nobody will convince me an administration that has manipulated the beaurocracies and disregarded the law, is above suggesting to an agency that data be interpreted differently. I’m not willing to believe any numbers coming out of the govt. None of the numbers they have provided in any other capacity have been correct. They managed to get us 17 trillion in debt by lying to us and themselves about revenue, economic growth, etc. you name category, they aren’t good with accounting. Gimme a break- they couldn’t get within 0.1% accuracy of counting their own employees, even if they were trying to be honest.
    And Isn’t this the same honorable and professional dept responsible twisting the arms of defense contractors and other federal contractors, to disregard the Hatch act until after the election? Seriously, I don’t know how any news agency can not question the integrity of the whole federal govt at this point. But even Fox are trying to avoid the elephant in the living room.

13. And boy, am I ever getting tired of putting so many posts in that “press” category.

    I honestly think there are many Americans who have little interest with politics on a daily basis as people who comment on this, and other bogs, do and are completely fed up with the media. (F&F coverage, Trayvon Martin coverage, TEA Party coverage, the glories of going green on the backs of taxpayers coverage, the lack of anything negative that might make the hothouse wallflower cupcake Preezy Skeezy have his widdle feewings hurt non-coverage, or that non-coverage of our extremely high and long term unemployment when 5% under Bush was an intergalactic travesty of breathless proportions, e.g., et.al.) The outright outrageous lies of commission and omission are — finally! — being noticed. The repulsion people feel for the media has never been stronger, and I call that a good thing. So don’t be ‘tired’ of the media category, not with their overall revenue numbers: Pretty soon, you won’t have the media to kick around anymore! That’ll be the moment for champaign corks to pop, or in my case, port bottles to decant. They’ll die of their own deceitful corruption in picking a side, a side that is in opposition to the America that still exists.

    As for me personally when thinking of the media, I cannot but help to always come back time and time again and ruminate lovingly on Esso stations.

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