And speaking of negotiations …
…Netanyahu made this announcement:
“In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed at the Government meeting yesterday to open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible,” he said in a statement. “The negotiations will focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the establishing of peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon.”
Ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun had called for ‘direct talks’ with Israel, setting an immediate ceasefire as a precondition, the BBC reports:
Netanyahu also said there is no ceasefire and that attacks on Hezbollah will continue.
It’s not the first time the two countries have talked. But I wonder how weakened Hezbollah is at this point, and if it will matter. I think Lebanon would like to be rid of Hezbollah and be its own country for a change, but Hezbollah isn’t on the same page (an understatement).
Does this merely have to do with damping things down in order to facilitate the Iran talks?
The Associated Press reported that the talks would be led on the U.S. side by Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and on the Israeli side by Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter. It’s not clear who would represent Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a post on the social platform X on Thursday that he directed his government “to open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible.” The Israeli leader said the talks would focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between the two countries.
President Trump on Thursday said he told Netanyahu to scale back Israel’s deadly strikes, as they threaten to upend a tenuous ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
“I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump said.
In other news, Fetterman says he will vote against a resolution to halt strikes on Iran:
Fetterman, a staunch supporter of Israel, said on Fox News’s “Hannity” that he will vote no on the measure.
“We have to stand [with] our military to allow them to accomplish the goals of Epic Fury,” he told host Sean Hannity, referring to the operation in Iran.
“I’m old enough to remember we used to root for our military, and we would all agree that Iran is the world’s leading terrorism underwriter.”
You can be a toddler and be old enough to remember that.
I hope the Israelis will be able to help Lebanon exterminate Hezballah.
Interview with Aaron Cohen about the possible Lebanon-Israel ceasefire.
As a teenager, Cohen moved to Israel, worked on a kibbutz, and volunteered for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
He served in the elite undercover Duvdevan Unit (Hebrew for “cherry” — the unit’s name inspired his company “Cherries”), part of the IDF Commando Brigade. This is a secretive counterterrorism unit specializing in deep-cover operations in the West Bank, where operatives disguise themselves as Arabs to infiltrate terrorist networks, conduct arrests, and gather intelligence.
He served roughly 1995–1998 (mid-1990s), participating in numerous high-risk missions. He was one of the few non-Israeli-born (non-Sabra) volunteers accepted after a rigorous selection process.
Seems to understand the region.
He is positive about the level of degradation done to the IRGC, despite the uncertainty about the wisdom of this imposed ceasefire.
Israel POUNDS Lebanon, Stops Hezbollah Coup Attempt; Iran Ceasefire DOOMED? | Watchman Newscast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTUwA01xG5o
I suspect Iran and its proxies have been hit harder than they yet realize, the Iranian productive infrastructure is gone. If the war reignites, the bridges and power generation will follow. The Houthis and Hezbollah may find themselves without support and dangling. That process was already underway, the first major loss was Syria. Drought is also a factor. Parts of Iran may have the will to recover, but the means will be missing.
Long term, I expect more pipelines to be built and the Hormuz Strait to be bypassed. At that point it becomes a liability for Iran, as they need it for exports and the gulf nations can close it.
Chuck, the question is, why are the pipelines not built by now? Any observer could tell that the Strait will be blocked. Why risk the trillions of dollars of oil and other hydrocarbon commerce of the region to the unstable regimes in the area. I saw a map a few days ago, where Israel is proposing pipelines that travel through the desert and end up on the Israeli coast. This avoids another bottleneck on the Suez Canal. I guess better late than never, but the pipelines should have been built by now.
Greetings from Israel… I have not posted due to hosting family over the Passover holiday. This included getting panicked-to-hysterical grandchildren into our home’s bomb shelter several times each night, and a few times each day. They spent most of the war with the other grandparents, who live in a more remote area that had fewer Iron Dome alerts. So we have been spared much of the angst and fatigue that most parents of school-aged children have endured since the war closed down schools.
In that context, it should be noted that the cease-fire is a welcome respite for many Israeli families… and if it is now possible to return the kids to school, it will boost Israeli moral and endurance.
Thank G-d it looks like the missile attacks have halted – either temporarily as a negotiating tactic, or permanently because our enemies’ launch capability has been degraded. If the missile threat has in fact been eliminated, Israeli forces can now achieve other goals of the war with a free hand…. which is probably why my son’s reserve unit is “up north” (don’t ask me where exactly) and my other son is processing intel related to other areas besides Iran.
It should be noted that for many Israelis – especially the coalition’s core constituency of religious/traditional soldiers, reservists, and post-Oslo patriots – the mental map/to-do list for conversations about “cleaning out Hezbollah” includes reasserting sovereignty in Gaza and the West Bank, and establishing a defensible northern border/DMZ.
I think the massacre solidified broad Israeli public opinion on clearing out Gaza, even beyond the Nationalist coalition.
I have largely stopped following punditry, as it is clear that the Trump White House is vigilantly policing its ranks for leakers and RINOs, and carefully controlling the news flow. Leaving the journo-and-chattering-classes to squawk and spin inanities further discredits them, serving MAGA.
Negotiations are just another tactic that can be used to draw reactions, misdirect, delay, gather information, float trial balloons, or attain other goals – another Greenland, if you will.
The one certain conclusion from all this is that only fools with TDE think Trump and Bibi are feckless losers…. does anyone really think these negotiations were entered into naively?
Like other tactics, this one is intended to achieve several things at once – including a media exercise to neutralize (and further discredit) the truly naive “internationalist” patsies and “old foreign policy hands”.
Ben David: From your lips to God’s ears! Thank you for your informed insight. It is a much needed and welcome corrective to all the blather, gibberish and argle-bargle that passes for “expert opinion.”
why are the pipelines not built by now?
One of the fun things about reading US history is how fast we used to build things. Truly remarkable. If all the parties can get on board, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, I imagine there are U.S. energy companies that could make this happen freakishly fast.
Someone else’s future problem, my present money.
Related:
“Beyond the Buffer: Why South Lebanon demands a new strategic logic;
“An adversary that does not accept the permanence of the opposing state does not experience a ceasefire as a settlement. It experiences it as a reloading interval. Israel must act in accordance with that unpleasant truth…”—
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425269
@ Ben David – ditto what Steve (R/rL) said.
I hope that I am speaking for everyone here (except the trolls) to say we worry about you and your family when there is a long hiatus in your comments (so thanks for the joke a couple of days ago), and look forward to the insights from “the inside” even if it’s just the one-line “We are still here.”
My prayers for Israel seem more concrete when I can specifically include someone I “know” in my petitions for safety and encouragement.
May the Lord bless you in this difficult time, and keep you folded in His loving arms.
PS Our Sunday School curriculum this year is the study of the Old Testament, so I am including in my reading the volumes of “The Rational Bible” by Dennis Prager. I finished “Genesis” last month (couldn’t read anything at all in February), and started “Exodus” last night. His commentary and essays are very illuminating.
The messages of the Torah seem especially appropriate during the current tumult in Israel and the surrounding countries.
Aesop Fan: I miss Prager.
Ben David: I fear things will get worse. Thank G-d for folks like you and yours.
well they honestly though they could find a way not to anger the Lion, the Houthis Ansarullah, have chimed in just to be remind us they are around, but I guess they don’t want another round of what faced them last spring
it does seem the corporate press is making things out of whole cloth, well more than usual, since Joe Kent was sidelined, some one else has been leaking to the press
DIA perhaps, then again Haberman and Swan’s little pantomine fooled some people, of course there is the Gellman theorem always to be considered, (falsun in uno, falsus in sum)
“Facts” matter little to these people.
Another brilliant thought.
Why not a canal say between the area of Arf Ghabi, Oman and Al Hablayn? Very short. But it would have to be a two way passage.
Shipping could then avoid the most serious choke point, and the lanes hug the west side of the gulf.