Middle East pessimists versus Middle East optimists
The Middle East pessimists have certain things in common with each other, and a prominent one is that they think Trump is a gullible fool.
I don’t see evidence for that description, although I know a lot of people believe it. It seems absurd to me that Trump didn’t expect what just about every blogger and commenter on the right expected – which is that Hamas would not comply with the deal and disarm, and probably would not cooperate in myriad other ways. I think it was always part of Trump’s expectation.
But the deal accomplished three very important things:
(a) It got some other Middle Eastern countries to commit to backing it. And they might end up being in non-compliance, too, although they have some economic incentives to fulfill their part of the deal.
(b) It got the hostages back at the outset. That was vitally important to untie Israel’s hands.
(c) It gave the world notice that it’s the Israelis who are willing to “give peace a chance.” It throws the spotlight on the continuing violence of Hamas, and if and when Israel has to go back to dealing with them harshly, Israel’s justification will be clear – not that most of the world will ever give them credit. I’ll add that the NeverNetayahu crowd in Israel will never give Bibi credit, either.
None of these things mean the deal will work out. But it’s part of the plan’s brilliance that it accomplishes these three things at once. Neither Trump, Kushner, Rubio, or Witcoff are naive enough to not understand the perils and risks, which are obvious. I doubt they are without a plan for contingincies, although they’re not telegraphing exactly what it is.
In other words, as this article says, “No one is under any illusions.” From the piece [emphasis mine]:
A total of 154 of the 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences or lengthy terms who were freed in the first stage of the hostage deal and the end of the war were transferred through the Rafah Crossing to Cairo. They are currently under Egyptian supervision in a hotel, in coordination with Israeli security officials. These prisoners, classified as deportees, are undergoing medical checks and receiving humanitarian support under the oversight of Red Cross representatives.
Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence continues to monitor those who have returned to their homes in the West Bank. “The terrorists understand that the situation has changed, but no one is under any illusion—they are not lovers of Zion,” a senior security official said. …
Palestinian sources estimate that some of the released prisoners may eventually settle in Turkey, Qatar, or other Arab states, while others are expected to remain in Egypt and rebuild their lives there. The 154 exiles are staying in a Cairo hotel under Egyptian security supervision, undergoing medical checks and humanitarian processing.
Turkey and Qatar have both expressed willingness to receive some of the released prisoners, though no official announcements have been made. Each prisoner’s destination was preapproved by Israel and included in the release agreement, and permission to remain in Cairo depends on the Egyptian authorities. …
Alongside the operational deployment, the IDF continues real-time intelligence collection and sensitive outreach to the families of released prisoners to prevent potential friction or violent incidents. Monitoring of the prisoners and their relatives will continue closely, with increased military presence in certain areas.
And that’s just what’s being reported. I’m going to assume there’s a lot more going on.
On many websites I’ve seen jokes about equipping the released prisoners with beepers. No, that’s not happened. But I wouldn’t underestimate the Israeli authorities and their creativity.
I repeat: all of this doesn’t mean everything will be as rosy as the rhetoric has been. But I don’t think that either the Israelis or Trump and his negotiators are naive about the nature of Hamas and the Palestinians.
In my view much of what matters is the support among the nations of the region moving forward is what matters. Hamas and the Palestinians are not good faith actors. But Israel has the power to deal with them in Gaza, and having an agreement with the nations of the region to act as needed as Hamas fails to deliver is what counts.
It isn’t about a happy ending peace deal. It is about isolating Hamas.
This time if it doesn’t work something will be done.
I would add a fourth item to neo’s list of important things achieved by the deal:
(d) It stopped the slow leak of what remains of global support for Israel.
We’ve all seen the growing international sympathy for the Gazans and even Hamas. It’s not right, it’s not fair, but the longer the stalemate went on, the worse for Israel. Not to mention the hostages.
Trump and Netanyahu knew they had to wind this up ASAP.
Hamas no longer has any friends in the Mideast.
Not IF, But WHEN.
I thought it was a larger number that Israel would be releasing.
What about the bodies of the missing, that Hamas murdered?
I agree with huxley.
SHIREHOME:
The number in the article is the number of those serving life terms or close to life terms.
The reason I didn’t list huxley’s number four is that I don’t think Israel lost support that it had previously had. The people who hate it have hated it for a long time, but many of them just weren’t as open about it before. They saw the war as an opportunity to express it.
If I was Israel, I would have tattooed the Hebrew word for Hamas on their faces. Easier to find later.
Islam’s proxy agents, Hamas et al, will abide by the agreement for as long as it takes to reorganize, rearm and rebuild its manpower. That is how long Israel has till the next major attack.
The benefits for Israel are as described with the additional benefit that when Hamas starts to attack again it will make it harder for their apologists to rationalize Hamas’ attacks.
The downside is that once again Israel has been stopped from finishing off one of Islam’s proxies.
Even Qatar is tired of the Gaza Arabs. Their only friend is a neutered Iran.
And the deportees are going to countries, where, if they make trouble, well, they will be dealt with. Without a lot of legal niceties.
“Hamas no longer has any friends in the Mideast.” *J*F*M*
Really? I must have missed it, when did Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Syria, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda and the Houthis condemn Hamas?
The pathetic attempt to credit the deal to Biden and Blinken is a clear sign that progressives can’t come up with any convincing criticisms, beyond Trump Eek.
The people who hate it have hated it for a long time, but many of them just weren’t as open about it before. They saw the war as an opportunity to express it.
neo:
Maybe so.
Still I say that people becoming more open about their hatred of Israel is an increasing danger.
And all the more likely to create a bandwagon effect drawing in others, who hadn’t thought about it much.
As in the transgender fad topic. Or Nazi Germany.
huxley:
Agreed.
Here’s an idea; the USA should give Iran $ 1 BILLION in cash to have Iran put pressure on Hamas to disarm. That should convince Hamas to play nice.
I just do not understand why no one has yet suggested this.
Perhaps one of these foreign policy geniuses – John Kerry, Susan Rice, Jake Sullivan or Antony Blinken will speak up soon.
Best if Antony Blinken prepares some sort of document outlining why and how this should be done, and have all his good pals (that I have listed) sign it.
Since Trump greatly admires these foreign policy geniuses – whose list of accomplishments is just way, way too long to cite here – he would immediately move to send the cash to Iran.
Or maybe it would be better if Susan Rice prepares some short video ……..
@John Tyler – Pro Tip: don’t forget to turn off your sarc button when done typing.
I was pretty sure my regard for Tony Blinken could not sink any lower, but I was badly mistaken. That sniveling little t*rd is the ne plus ultra of what CS Lewis called “Men without chests”.
“…; the USA should give Iran $ 1 BILLION in cash ..”
Rudyard Kipling had a response to that :
“And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we’ve proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.”
the hudna, that rob malley negotiated through wendy sherman, that was supposed to stave off the iranian nuclear program, was something in the neighborhood of 150 billion, I think the deal to the kim dynast was about 10 billion, but AQ Khans ready made kit obviated that program,
its best said that Hamas are the proxies of Qataris
most particularly the ruling tribes of the Al Thanis, and the Kuwaris, who are proximate to the throne, they serve a purpose as with the Taliban and Boko Haram, would they want this circumstance for the mselves, probably not, it is bayat
a day ending in y
https://x.com/AcrossTheBay/status/1979194389076336971
Neo,
This is like an advertisement for your ” a mind is a difficult thing to change”
If Trump is a gullible fool – how would you describe the Euroweenies who recognized the fictitious state of Palestine?
After decades of Western capitulation to the Muslim world (and corruption by its money and oil) Trump is trying to re-establish the carrot and the stick, which are the only ways to externally manage dar-el-Islam.
The Abraham Accords are not pie in the sky – they are the carrot. They provide some tangible benefits to which the Muslims who do want reform can point.
The stick is defeat of Hamas.
I see no evidence that Trump is excusing violence or adopting victimhood politics in the middle east.
Instead he is clearly calibrating the rewards as Hamas and Qatar uphold their commitments.
Israel ought to microchip the Hamas fighters before releasing them, like we do for cats and dogs. Easier to track and find.
Then, sometime down the road, “leak” the (incorrect) nugget that the microchips allow Israel to monitor conversations. They’ll take care of their own.
the easy part was the exchange of hostages, the hardest part will be the disarming of Hamas, its a necessary thing, but with the gulf states follow through, because the leadership will not willingly get along, one is reminded of the notion that a multilateral force would take over Iraq, as a transition step, but nothing came of that