Tariffs: everybody’s scrambling, and the EU makes an offer
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc offered President Donald Trump a deal concerning tariffs on industrial goods.
Von der Leyen said at a press conference (emphasis the LI author’s):
“These tariffs come first and foremost at immense costs for US consumers and businesses. But at the same time, they have a massive impact on the global economy. Developing countries are hit especially hard. This is a major turning point for the United States. Nonetheless, we stand ready to negotiate with the US. Indeed, we have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods as we have successfully done with many other trading partners. Because Europe is always ready for a good deal. So we keep it on the table. But we are also prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests. And in addition, we will also protect ourselves against indirect effects through trade diversion. For this purpose, we will set up an ‘Import Surveillance Task Force’. We will work with industry to make sure we have the necessary evidence base for our policy measures. We will stay in very close contact to minimise effects of our actions on each other.”
Also, there’s this:
President Donald Trump threatened China with an additional 50% tariff if the communist country did not drop its 34% retaliatory tariffs.
Trump has also coined a new word: “Panican,” which he defines as “A new party based on Weak and Stupid people.”
“A new party based on Weak and Stupid people.”
No, Mr. President, many of your constituents/subjects don’t have the stomach for your bull-in-china-shop approach to the universe. But they’re neither weak nor stupid, they’re grounded and very concerned. (Many of those that are panicking panic at anything.)
Moving from one real estate deal to another, there are bound to be a few busts along the way. (That’s why this business about your deals occasionally falling through are, well, bull-without-the-china-shop.) It’s what happens with a serial art-of-the-deal-maker.
But Mr. President, this is our one and only country you’re dealing with. You have to get this deal [many individual deals, actually] right — the first time. If you don’t, it’s both your legacy and your agenda for USA that are at risk. Heaven help us if you screw up.
It is interesting that the euros specified “industrial goods”. How about food and other farm products? How about oil and natural gas? How about cars and trucks? I do not think this is a serious opening offer.
“These tariffs come first and foremost at immense costs for US consumers and businesses.” Change US to EU and she would be right.
M – “subjects”, and (That’s why this business about your deals occasionally falling through are, well, bull-without-the-china-shop.) It’s what happens with a serial art-of-the-deal-maker.
I am not a “subject”
Trump pegged MJR perfectly.
And the EU lady left out VAT tax as well as non industrial products. She must think Trump’s team is as stupid as the EU “leaders” she deals with.
None of the Americans squawking about tariffs said a word as the Biden regime ran the economy into the ground. And I don’t think these Panicans understand tariffs, either.
Approx. 1/3 of the American colonists neither supported nor opposed the revolution. In every time of crisis, there are those who cannot bring themselves to support what survival demands. Fence sitters and armchair quarterbacks are ever with us.
This administration is America’s last chance. If Trump fails, the American Republic will not survive.
MJR lights his hair on fire
This is the Euros opening response. Respecting their negotiating skill I predict this is not their walk away offer. They have come to the table, which is what President Trump sought. Now the final terms can be discussed and agreed to. No deal is possible unless the parties are talking. We’re now talking with, reportedly, 70+ countries.
Panicans need to chill and watch it play out. Btw, the market was stable today, no Black Monday, to the chagrin of the Never Trumpers and TDS sufferers.
steve walsh,
It ended relatively flat but not before it had the largest intraday swing (2,500) the Dow had ever seen.
Hopefully we have gotten past the panic selling now which is the first step in finding a short term bottom.
Earnings season starts this week and that is going to be something else as good reports will be discounted and bad reports will get punished and future guidance may even be skipped because of the massive uncertainty out there.
Interesting times.
The question is are the fundamental solid with these stocks if so why panic
Yes, the EU’s opening offer on “industrial goods” is an attempt to side-step some big problems. The Trump team are not stupid.
om (6:47 pm) offers, “MJR lights his hair on fire,” but MJR is effectively concurring with Geoffrey Britain (6:44 pm) . . .
“This administration is America’s last chance. If Trump fails, the American Republic will not survive.”
It’s extremely serious stuff. om, if you interpret my comment as lighting my hair on fire, then so be it. We and Trump (and om) *have* to get this right. *This* time.
Now, where’d I stash that fire extinguisher?
“… threatened China with an additional 50% tariff ”
Harbor Freight gonna be busy this week.
Never ceases to amaze me, that people can see our deficits are unsustainable, and yet complain when someone finally tries to right the sinking ship. Okay, if tariffs can’t and won’t work, explain why and show how to fix our broken system. Otherwise, shut the hell up and stop whining.
MJR
Geoffrey Britain has been prognosticating the Doom of America for well on 20 years now, and many other Dooms. That’s Geoffrey’s stock and trade.
And just how do you know it is “this time?” Spescial skilz you have?
As I look at my patiently constructed investment portfolio, I wince. I do remind, however, myself that I made some choices. In the first month of 2025 there was a nice run up. I was tempted to take profits and sit out the storms to come–but decided to see how it played out.
I presume that everyone who is throwing a fit right now had the same option. We make choices and blame others when they don’t work, eh? (As our former friends to the North might say.)
There are a lot of balls in the air. My focus is on the loss of strategic industrial capability in an increasingly dangerous world; and I believe that is a critical dynamic in this. So, I reflect back to the 1940s and 1950s when most Americans understood that some pain was inevitable; but trusted that it would be worth it in the long run. The current situation is not as obvious, but it is there to be reckoned with.
Personal story. During WWII I asked my Grandmother why we had to eat ‘Cream of Wheat’ (ugh) instead of grits. She replied, “Honey, our solder boys need their grits to defeat the enemy”. If a southern boy could go without his grits for the good of the country/world (not to mention his father for three years) we can certainly survive this bump in our comfortable road.
om (8:39 pm), I do not “know” it. It is my best sober assessment of what I’m seeing happening. Your mileage evidently varies. That’s your right and privilege.
But (I say) we need to be fellow combatants in the good fight, and trivial sniping will not further the cause. Peace.
I have sold some the last month or so as I came to believe Trump really was going to do something this time but I’ve still took a hit like everybody else. Didn’t see the Vietnam part coming and that has been a major hit to Nike which was already struggling to the point of being to low to sell so now I’m stuck with it for awhile.
Been some others that have been hammered that sort of surprised me like Starbucks which is a China issue I guess.
Been around long enough to take these times more in stride I guess. The market takes weeks, months even years to go up and then can take days to wipe it all out. It’s just the way it works but when it’s happening it can be scary.
I was in college in 1987 but was around for 2008 and 2020 and this is nothing compared to those.
Why Trump’s Tariff War Actually Makes Sense | Episode 16 (04/07/25) – Vince Coglianese Show – Full Video
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2025/04/why-trumps-tariff-war-actually-makes.html
Maybe Trump should threaten to charge a protection fee to the Europeans for American Troops in Europe.
Right now, Americans are paying for Europe’s defense.
The Europeans. With their whole 3 Frigates in the Red Sea.
Not carriers.
Not Cruisers.
Not even a Destroyer.
Three Frigates.
Maybe they can save some more money and replace the Frigates with a couple of Corvettes and a Fast Attack Craft.
You mean, three friggin’ frigates? [ chuckle ]
At 6:44 p.m., Geoffrey Britain wrote, “This administration is America’s last chance. If Trump fails, the American Republic will not survive.”
In 2011, Mark Steyn anticipated Geoffrey:
America has a looming rendezvous with destiny. You can’t tax your way out of it, you can’t inflate your way out of it, you can’t quantitatively ease your way out of it. The only door that leads anywhere is the one marked “Massive Government Cuts.” There is not enough money on the planet for what the Permanent Governing Class is doing. If Americans decline to grasp that central truth, this country will die.
From https://www.steynonline.com/4158/default-dear-brutus-is-not-in-our-stars
Griffin.
Absolute swings are meaningless. The Dow is at about 38,000 so a 2500 point swing is about 6 1/2%. Compare, for example, to black Monday in 1987 when the Dow dropped 22%.
Bob Wilson,
Yeah I know but the commenter before me said the market was stable today and I would say 6% intraday swing is not stable that was my point.
Posted this on yesterday’s tariff thread, but am repeating it here because MacDougald seems to me to have some good points.
Via Powerlines Headlines list:
https://thedailyscroll.substack.com/p/april-7-the-trade-war-is-about-china
*Caveat about the industries: Jim Geraghty (who has been on every side of the tariffs since April 1, but finally decided he’s against them) does give figures showing the US isn’t totally dependent on China for critical industries; it just seems that way. I don’t know if he or Lind is correct. As Twain said, “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/why-team-trump-is-so-gung-ho-about-tariffs/
I really want to believe Andrea Widburg is correct in her analysis.
So far, if you read 10 posts on the tariffs, you get 10 credible-sounding analyses.
Guess we’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
And ride out the panic selling, as my broker has recommended.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/04/ignore_bill_ackman_s_concerns_trump_s_economic_plans_are_genius.html
Here’s a useful chart from that post, which I’ve seen elsewhere as well.
https://images.americanthinker.com/0w/0w46eysybjowrhxtdstj_640.jpg
It’s all in the length of the time-line.
I wonder how many nations on earth, prior to this year, did NOT have tariffs on goods imported into their respective countries?
Yet, it is dogma within the economics community that tariffs are bad.
Reading the news items over the last week or so, it appears that if the USA imposes tariffs that is really bad.
But it is just fine that every other nation has tariffs.
I have not seen one article or news item in which some economist / trade “expert” has been critical of all these other nations that impose tariffs.
Maybe Trump’s tariff gambit will pay off. Who knows? I certainly hope it will, but fear the near term dead end as China has nothing to gain and everything to lose by playing along. Will it risk all out war by invading Taiwan? Yes, it will.
None of us want to entertain that possibility as we push it aside and desperately hold on to our still comfortable world. We want to believe that China’s belt and road initiative indicates a longer term plan of world economic and military leadership. We tell ourselves that they wouldn’t jump off a cliff and overnight become a pariah state. We want to believe the nonsense about Chinese patience and centuries long strategy.
What we don’t want to believe or face is our own weakness. Our societal disarray is at the tipping point of disintegration. We are broke economically. Our military, and specifically the Navy, is pathetic. Facing off against China in a direct confrontation over an island it considers historically and culturally theirs, from such a weak position, is not in our interest. But letting them humiliate us isn’t either.
This is my last comment for a while here at Neo’s site, again. If you have nothing positive to say, time for au revoir. Good luck and God bless you all.
pariah state to whom, to the UN to the EU, dream on, they were largely responsible for the deaths of 10 million lives, but many decided to look elsewhere at a lesser villain,
Chinas admission into the WTO without conditions was a grave error,
as for our latter day Delian league members in the EU, they have not been keeping up their end of the bargain,
Trump’s tariff actions, even if OK from the Big Picture standpoint, have caused massive harm that will endure. Trillions of dollars of value in assets written down in an instant. Could have done this in increments, over time. But no.
Trump has assured our next POTUS will be a Democrat. He has assured that socialism in America will increase irreversibly.
How was wealth destroyed? Investors sold their shares and piled up and burned the money or something?
I see a bright future for first time in the 21st century. A possible path that doesn’t end in rivers of blood.
fell for gellman syndrome, they lie about everything else,
Trump’s tariff actions, even if OK from the Big Picture standpoint, have caused massive harm that will endure. Trillions of dollars of value in assets written down in an instant. Could have done this in increments, over time. But no. Trump has assured our next POTUS will be a Democrat. He has assured that socialism in America will increase irreversibly.
==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzdBIWM8aI4&t=2s
the rule of thumb with these things, is when any gaggle of magpies all repeat ‘this is the wurst thing evarr’ well I reserve judgment, it could turn out to be true, but there have been too many instances when they have made a mountain out a mole hill and when it fails to pan out, they say ‘never mind’ and move on,
when there are actual tragedies crimes and other serious matters they find a way to minimize them
And once again
ArtDeco:
I couldn’t have said it better (than your link). 🙂
These are times that try men’s souls. But this is the first time it has been so?
Edward Luttwak, no slouch he, weighs in….
(Not only is he in favor: he believes the move is long overdo.)
“Tariffs will awaken the American Dream;
“Trump must ignore the lords of Martha’s Vineyard”—
https://unherd.com/2025/04/tariffs-will-awaken-the-american-dream/
H/T Powerline blog.
Luttwak’s main point is about the math – if you have 100 people making $1 each, the total is the same as if you have 10 people making $10 each and 90 people making nothing.
(Scale up as appropriate.)
“Trump’s tariff plan is simple: impede free trade so that surviving industrial and craft enterprises can return to prosperity, while other firms both old and new are re-launched with better technology, allowing them to become global exporters while still paying good wages. True, global wealth is favoured by unlimited free trade. But, in the process, lower-income workers in developed countries are impoverished, even as higher income people everywhere get wealthier. While Clinton, the Bushes, and the lord of Martha’s Vineyard Obama supported free trade, as did the wealthy elite they hang out with, Trump is keen to reward his lower income supporters. Unsurprisingly, Wall Street Journal and Financial Times editorialists — free-trade worshippers all — are outraged.”
RTWT
The editorialists also include not a few supposedly conservative pundits.