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Tariffs again — 47 Comments

  1. Indeed, Miles does not have orange hair…and Trump doesn’t have sideburns.

  2. Probably been said elsewhere; Trump is negotiating, using a big stick. What remains after the deals are sealed could be nearly unrecognizable.

  3. I’m fine with it as a negotiating tactic… just like I’m fine with DOGE going all out right now to expose as much as possible before the “deep state” has a chance to dig in their heels and before the next wave of elections. And I think that tariffs don’t necessarily have to crash the economy, there are a lot of other factors at play. But I also agree with those that say that we should not just have blanket tariffs across the board and that they should not just be calculated based on trade deficits alone.

    I also think that if it takes the election of Trump to get Congress to reclaim more of its responsibilities to actually make the laws, it’s worth it. Is it wrong for the executive branch to exert control over its own agencies, and is it wrong for Trump to impose tariffs when that’s generally been the president’s decision… well no, but I also support the legislative branch reasserting itself.

  4. A fundamental issue facing us: In a world with global and highly-efficient transportation and communications…and billions of people who are accustomed to low wages…is it possible for a country such as the United States to maintain its accustomed high standards of living for the large majority of its people?…and, if so, what are the key policy elements required to do this?

    Tariffs are by no means the only answer to this question, but I think that tariffs…or some form of domestic production tax incentive will need to be in the mix.

    Discussed at my 2021 post Labor Day Thoughts:

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/66613.html

  5. A reply to people who mock the idea that the US should make products such as toasters, asserting that we instead should focus on ‘advanced’ products like drones…

    “Re: People who don’t get that a toaster factory and a drone factory are basically the same thing.

    You are dumb. You know nothing about manufacturing, thus proving the point that America would probably be a stronger/more efficient country if a broader manufacturing base was present here.

    A factory is a collection of processes that manipulate raw material through a series of steps using capital equipment. Modern factories are highly flexible. A drone and a toaster share a huge amount of commonality – injection molding, stamping, machining, PCB assembly, wire forming, precision assembly, packaging, QC, etc etc.

    You learn to run the wire forming process for the heater on a toaster? You learn 90% of what you need to know to wind the stator for a drone. You learn how the CNC mill works to clean up the die castings for the toaster? You know 95% of what you need to know to mill the drone core from bar stock. The injection molding machine that makes the slide lever for the toaster? Swap out the mold in it and now it makes the blades for the drone. The list goes on and on.

    Old factories were mechanical and hard tooled to make *one* thing. This is still true of agriculture, this is still true for a lot of soft goods (a T-shirt factory can’t really make jeans)… But for a huge number of advanced, modern assemblies? It is not a crazy shift to go from toasters to drones as far as capital equipment is concerned, and he folks running it have a 1:1 skill set.”

    https://x.com/gak_pdx/status/1908596074388086876

  6. There’s not a fixed supply of labor in a fixed set of occupations, as long as there are unsatisfied human needs there will be work to do. If foreign imports were really putting people out of work and impoverishing the country in the long run, then they would have to stop, because who would be paying for the imports and with what money?

    Consider the following family names:

    Cooper: barrel-maker
    Weaver: maker of cloth
    Wainwright: wagon-maker
    Miller: grinder of wheat into flour
    Napier: maker of table linen
    Faulkner: trainer of falcons
    Fletcher: maker of arrows

    These occupations were once so important people took their names from them. Could you round up a thousand in the people in the US following them?

  7. You know what I’ve never seen anyone express concern about? Or even seen measured? A US state’s trade deficit with other states.

    Companies and jobs move from one state to the other, different taxes or minimum wage or what have you. Things made cheaply in one state put people in another state out of business. Shouldn’t we put a stop to all that?

    Why DOESN’T the US Constitution allow tariffs and customs borders between states? Why DID the Founders set us up as one enormous free trade zone? Even though some people had to compete with actual slave labor? They must have been idiots, I guess.

    Think how much better off union-dominated or high minimum wage states would be if they could tariff production in right-to-work states and low minimum wage states, if protective tariff logic is correct.

    Or just any state where the cost of housing or energy or just market value of wages is lower, that’s unfair too, right?

  8. 1) He calls them “reciprocal” tariffs, but they aren’t reciprocal at all.

    If you just compare our tariff to their tariff, I’m sure this is true. But as Lutnick effectively said, The big things are obstructive importation regulations that act similarly to huge tariffs. If the Trump admin. people are targeting that, then the tariffs won’t look reciprocal at all. Of course, how do you calculate such compensatory tariffs, and are they fair in a quasi reciprocal sense? Is the Trump admin. even trying to be fair about it?
    _________

    2) David Foster asks: Can the US brings lots of manufacturing jobs back into the US while maintaining high “living wage” or “living wage+” standards for relatively unskilled labor?

    I think some decades ago, people in the US understood that unskilled or lower skilled labor with low wages wasn’t so bad, if such jobs were stepping stones up an occupational ladder. Young people starting out perhaps. Now the Overton Window has taken us to the instant living wage, after high school.

    I don’t think there is a nice and easy solution to this problem.
    _______

    3) This is probably related to 2), but… What is the inflationary impact of all of these reciprocal tariff actions??

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve came out with a statement that said that they believe that the inflation impact will be worse than most analysts think it will be.

    If the Fed believes that, and if it is somewhat true, then the Fed funds rate, i.e. interest rates, will remain higher longer.

    All that… sent the markets down another big notch, I believe.

  9. I admit I’m out of my depth on the tariff questions.

    But I’m glad I’m not loudly and publicly betting against Trump.

  10. Tommy Jay…it’s not only a matter of relatively unskilled labor; there are a whole range of jobs in manufacturing, ranging from the assembly worker to the toolmaker ,the CNC programmer, the industrial engineer who designs the manufacturing process, the sales engineer who quotes on customer requests, etc.

    I just saw somebody at LinkedIn asserting that we should focus on service jobs because they pay better than manufacturing…I’ve seen similar assertions often. But ‘service jobs’ is so broad as to be almost meaningless. It includes the fast-food worker and the Uber Eats driver as well as the high-level management consultant. And a lot of the low-end service jobs are catch-as-catch can temporary and unreliable employment.

    And the idea that service jobs and ‘knowledge work’ are immune to offshoring is not correct. See my post Telemigration for thoughts on this.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/59860.html

  11. Ten year treasury is below 3.9% – a six month low. Seems more important to our country (re:debt service) and citizens, mortgage rates, credit cards and loans.
    I’m bullish on Trump’s strategy here.
    The stock market drop is likely driven by hedge fund algorithm trading, etc. If I recall correctly I read somewhere that the majority of stocks are owned by something like 7% of the US population or something to that effect. I think it – DJI – meant something back in the day when market fundamentals applied; those days are long gone.

  12. Re: People who don’t get that a toaster factory and a drone factory are basically the same thing.

    –David Foster

    A trend which will continue with a vengeance as AI kicks in.
    ____________________________________

    Moore’s law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
    ____________________________________

    Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO, argues informally we are going to see Moore’s Law kick in for the prices of everything, which means these prices will decrease towards the limit of the cost of the services and raw materials required.
    ____________________________________

    This [AI] revolution will create phenomenal wealth. The price of many kinds of labor (which drives the costs of goods and services) will fall toward zero once sufficiently powerful AI “joins the workforce.”

    AI will lower the cost of goods and services, because labor is the driving cost at many levels of the supply chain. If robots can build a house on land you already own from natural resources mined and refined onsite, using solar power, the cost of building that house is close to the cost to rent the robots. And if those robots are made by other robots, the cost to rent them will be much less than it was when humans made them.

    –Sam Altman, “Moore’s Law for Everything” (March 16, 2021)
    https://moores.samaltman.com/

    ____________________________________

    A serious problem with AI is how to distribute the wealth it creates for the benefit of all. Most of Altman’s article addresses that concern.

  13. Niketas Choniates points out that the US Constitution does not allow tariffs and customs borders between states effectively establishing one enormous free trade zone.

    That is exactly what Trump is trying to accomplish on an international scale with the economic leverage that increased US tariffs create.

    TommyJay points out that the big things are obstructive importation regulations (and currency manipulations) that create trade barriers that act similarly to huge tariffs.

    The proof that this the case is that few if any critics of Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs offer any rebuttal to the Trump administration’s claim that countries like Vietnam have an ‘effective’ tariff rate on imported US products of 90%. Anomalies like Australia are a concern and such cases should be quickly addressed. But not at the expense of lessening pressure on the countries who refuse to truly participate in the creation of a ‘level playing field’.

  14. As others have noted, the 10 year Treasury, which was around 4.7% when 2025 began, is now just under 4.0%, indicating that Treasuries are in demand and being bought.

    I don’t understand High Economics, but it seems to me that the most educated economists are going nuts right now, taking Trump’s proposed scheme as poison to the health of the world economy. Others, along partisan lines, are taking pains to emphasize the illogic and the flaws in great detail, and make dire warnings about their impact.

    To me, it’s once again the old saw from Salena Zito about taking what Trump says seriously, but not literally. Already the countries are queuing up to discuss trade matters. Already, interest rates are coming down. It all has a familiar feel to it. That makes me want to wait and see, because it’s a ‘so far, so good’ answer.

  15. Also, sometimes you get what you pay for. When I started this house I chose a certain brand of electrical box for outside locations. They were made in America. Several years later I got some more. They were made in Mexico and the quality was noticeably poorer. The last batch a few years after that were made in China. They were unusable and I threw them away.

  16. Thanks for the clarification David Foster.

    To your point: I know that highly unionized workforces have large contracts where the salary of workers much higher up the food chain, have minimum salary floors that are leveraged to the lowest salary in that workforce. So raise the minimum wage, and everybody (or a great many) see a salary increase.

    I’m sure there is something vaguely similar that happens in the absence of a union contract too. Although the differences, with & without a contract, would be an interesting study.

  17. The last news items I heard were that Vietnam, and perhaps others, were strongly considering dropping tariffs, if the US did so too. And that countries like France, and most importantly, China, were pissed off and would retaliate.

    I believe there are some US companies employing Vietnam workers for cheap labor, and that Vietnam is about 1/10th the size of China’s population.

    This is a simplistic notion and maybe wishful thinking, but if we can exploit Vietnam’s labor force, in a healthy and constructive way (!?), do we need to deal with China’s labor force if they choose to be obstinate? That is, China loses in that calculation. The flip side is, we would like to sell lots of goods into China’s massive customer base. Retaliatory tariffs tend to block that, & the US loses there.

  18. Yesterday I watched the 35 year old tape of Oprah and Trump. Those who’ve seen it will note that he’s been very consistent in wanting tariffs for a very long time. While he may not be an economic genius, he did graduate from the Wharton School of Economics which would indicate at least a familiarity with the subject.

    In some ways the man is like a magician who keeps his audience distracted with one or several things so that he can achieve an unexpected result. That is what I think is going on with the tariffs. They are a means to an end, or several and many ends. They may produce income like a tax. They may help balance our trade deficit, especially with friendly countries. They may help protect certain vital industries like steel for national defense purposes. They most certainly will help stop the flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, and meth coming in from Mexico as that country will be forced by economic necessity to knuckle under. They may also eventually bring about the return of industries like pharmaceuticals and microchips without which we are very vulnerable. All of this is the surface rationale, logical and moral.

    But as I’ve stated on other threads, the real goal is a trade war in preparation for a real war with China. Every seemingly outlandish thing Trump bellows like taking over Greenland, annexing Canada, or renaming the Gulf of America, they all indicate a circling of the wagons. He didn’t send Hegseth to Japan or Vance to Greenland without a reason. Nor did he put a 54% tariff on Chinese goods while willing to cut a deal with Vietnam on just a wild flim. And…my gut feeling – this is why the stock market is crashing. It’s not the fear of recession, but of war.

  19. physicsguy linked to a good tariff story on AT that shows Trump’s plan seems to be working as intended.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/04/smart_nations_lining_up_for_tariff_deals_with_president_trump_and_you_wouldn_t_be_surprised_which_ones_they_are.html

    Here are a couple more that seem to me to have useful information as opposed to just rah-rah cheerleading.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/04/the_price_of_reciprocity_why_president_trump_s_tariffs_make_strategic_sense.html

    Well, maybe a little cheerleading. Sort of.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/04/tariffs_burn_it_all_down_rule_over_the_ashes.html

  20. Not that I’m an expert in economics (I’m not), but what with the Democrats POLICY of sabotaging the US economy as part of their WEF/WTF** policy (see Trudeau and HIS sabotage of the Canadian economy)—NOT ONLY the economy but the social order as well, in fact MAXIMUM CRISIS CREATION, one wonders what options Trump and his administration have.

    Especially since adding MAXIMUM inflationary pressures was one of “Biden”‘s special parting gifts to Trump, along with all the hidden, ongoing graft, corruption, slush and theft that were part and parcel of “his” administration.

    Add to this, the need of the Democrats to ensure that the country goes under financially so as to be able to blame it all on TRUMP (cf. Egg Production, for just one relatively pathetic example); to ensure that the country goes through one crisis after the next—even if such crises are ONLY the result by the media constant echoing Democratic Party wet dreams. (And where have we seen this before?)

    One wonders whether anti-Trump multi-millionaires are willing to dump stocks (and lose scads of money) if ONLY to derail Trump—IOW, are willing to help destroy the country in order to torpedo Trump and his administration.
    (Democrats try to “DESTROY” the country? Gosh, where have we seen that film before??)

    All told, Trump is fighting against a myriad of foes coming at him from all directions. (It’s not only the Democrats; it’s the EU—or most of it—with China and other bad actors providing enfilading fire.)
    He needs to make bold moves to try to deflect their perfidy, sabotage and subversion, so as to keep them off balance as much as possible—to keep them bonkers, encourage them to bark hysterically and make them continue to act as insanely as possible.

    He needs results but it will take time, which is a luxury that the forces arrayed against him are NEVER going to give him, even if such policies will ultmately prove helpful to the world economy.

    They would rather things go up in smoke rather than Trump achieve success.
    And if he does succeed, they will not only NOT report it but will find all kinds of ways—“six ways to Sunday”??—to call it “UTTER DESTRUCTIVE FAILURE”.

    I’m not sure why we should help them to do this….

    In fact, one should pay attention to more astute, constructive economic commentary by those who in fact cautiously assert that Trump’s ideas might just work…even as one notices that those countries adamantly opposed to tariffs might just have to—grudgingly, albeit—come around (as some have already begun to do).

    All this keeping in mind that the Democrats—and their allies in the media and the academies—are COMMITTED to DESTRUCTION.

    **Speaking of the WEF/WTF it appears as though it’s been DE-SCHWABBED. Is this possible…or is it a case of SCHWAB being “pushed out the door only to enable him to climb back in through the window”…?
    “Founder Klaus Schwab to step down as World Economic Forum’s chair”—
    https://www.reuters.com/business/world-economic-forum-founder-klaus-schwab-step-down-chair-trustees-ft-reports-2025-04-03/

    Oh WAIT! In 2027…Those stinkers….

  21. The cemeteries are full of people who had ” the way”, Trump has ” the way” we must choose it or not. This choosing comes without understanding Trump’s ” way”
    All of society is just remnants of someone’s or group of people’s ” way”. I shall throw my lot in with Trump ( that’s called faith) and live with the result.

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  23. The look-on-the-bright-side comments are all very good, but since consumers ultimately pay the tariffs, that is not mentioned, and is apparently of little concern. The tariffs will inflate the cost of everything without adding value, i.e., pure INFLATION. The US economy cannot suddenly spin into an alternative gear, regardless of how sound its manipulators’ motives may be.
    The American grunt will pay the price. You cannot fight the supply-demand fact of economic life and win.

  24. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. This is not that. — sdferr

    Milton Friedman said something quite similar to that, & I am a big admirer. But I looked that up a year or two ago, in my “Monetary Mischief” Friedman book. The context in which he said that was one in which a country is experiencing high to hyperinflation.

    Reading the surrounding material in the book carefully, my takeaway is this: Prices are always, always, governed through supply and demand. When governments print a lot of money, demand goes up. But particularly when speaking of inflation that is very much lower than hyperinflation, anything that affects supply and demand will impact prices.

    Now tariffs are rather unique. My guess is that a very small tariff increase will be paid almost entirely by the consumer paying more. But a very large tariff increase will tend to suppress consumer demand. Volume will decline and the provider will be inclined to reduce their prices to some degree before the high tariff is applied.

  25. I also think (sense? Intuit?) that Trump is also, in one fell swoop, maneuvering to lower significantly the enormous and punishing deficit.

    (You know, the one that’s supposed to be “unsustainable” but which everyone seems more than willing to add to…)

    That is, if I understand the gambit sufficiently. (Never a sure bet….)

  26. This is stupid. Tariffs are taxes same as sales tax, gas tax ad infinitum. My county just increased sales tax, WA is increasing the gas tax.

    In 1999, I bought a Ford Explorer Eddie Bauer. The annual excise tax (not sales tax) to license was $700. This caused people to keep their POS beaters on the road because of low value rated tax. We the people got rid of that by shoving $35 car tabs down Olympia’s throat. We have had to keep doing that as the a-holes keep adding taxes and fees back in and we keep removing them. Three times. Yes they are more than $35 currently.

  27. Regarding Argentina, I found it interesting that in 2023 Francisco “Quico” Toro, former blogmaster of the Caracas Chronicles, predicted disaster for Melei. A year later, he admitted that Milei had actually done pretty well—but did not admit his predictions of a year ago.
    Argentina Is Responding to Shock Therapy_He comes across like a madman, but Javier Milei is fast becoming the man of the moment.

    Sometimes, a man meets the moment.
    It may not be the man you want; it may not be the moment you’d hoped for. The man might be a bit of a lunatic, and the moment may be an out-and-out shit-show. Still, sometimes, man and moment come together, and then history happens.
    When Javier Milei was sworn-in as Argentinian president a year ago, the smart money was on a spectacular train wreck. Impulsive, thin-skinned, hyper-ideological and irresistibly drawn to every culture war controversy, no matter how dumb, Milei doesn’t immediately strike you as the kind of leader that gets results. Taking over one of the world’s most notorious economic basketcases at a time of absolute fiscal disarray, Milei’s coming doom seemed all too predictable.
    A year on, the naysayers have been, if not quite silenced, then given ample time to reconsider…

    If ever a country had been ripe for a bit of libertarian disruption, Argentina in 2023 was that country….

    Not, of course, that you can ever rest quite easy with a crazy person in charge of the government…
    But for the moment, Milei has had more successes than failures. He’s stabilized the currency, ended the deficit, tamed inflation, and made more progress in terms of structural reform than would’ve seemed imaginable a year ago. He’s managed to get enough support from a congress he doesn’t control to pass some important reforms, though he’s had to push much of his agenda through executive action….

    Whether Milei’s libertarian shock therapy will translate into real long-term economic growth and prosperity remains to be seen. Stabilizing a chronically unstable economy isn’t easy, but turning it into an engine of prosperity over the long run is much harder still. Whether Javier Milei will succeed at the harder task is very far from certain.
    And yet Milei’s critics are surely on the back foot right now.

    What was Francisco “Quico” Toro saying soon afer Milei had been elec ted?

    Argentinians Pick Their Poison)_This Sunday, the country picks between two men who should never be allowed near the levers of power. (Nov 2023)

    Give Quico some credit. He was quite open about the 8 decade disaster that Peronism has been for Argentina. Moreover, he cites Dornbusch & Edwards’s Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, which, in detailing the many failures of populist economics in Argentina, leads off with Peron.

    Quico predicted disaster for Milei.

    It takes grasping the scale and scope of Argentina’s economic dysfunction to begin to understand why otherwise reasonable people might be tempted to vote in large numbers for a figure like Javier Milei on Sunday. Luxuriating in his extremism, Milei proposes the kind of libertarian shock therapy that fell out of favor in the region years ago: privatizing all publicly-owned companies in a hurry, shutting down ministries, slashing state spending as a proportion of GDP by a staggering 15 percentage points, abolishing most taxes, adopting the U.S. dollar and ending the entire Peronist giveaway state in one fell swoop. That’s what the chainsaw is about: a none-too-subtle hint that the guy’s vision for cutting back on Argentina’s hypertrophied state is the opposite of surgical.

    That’s what Milei promised to do, and did.

    In a country where huge swathes of the population are dependent on government patronage to put food on the table, this is a daring platform indeed.

    I read that after Melei’s reforms, the very poor who depended on government largesse were not the ones who lost the most—it was middle class Peronistas—no longer government employees—who no longer took a cut off what was going to the poor. Rather like AID as money laundering for lefty activists instead of assistance for the poor in foreign countries.

    Quico predicted disaster.

    Of course there’s every reason to fear Milei’s extremism would be self-defeating in office: shock therapy failed pretty much everywhere it was tried in the 1980s and 1990s, destabilizing already frail societies and leaving vulnerable people in such dire economic straits that reform itself came to be seen as the enemy. Ideally, Argentina would pursue a careful, gradual path away from the ruinous legacy of Peronism. Alas, the candidate who was proposing that path came third in the first round of voting (she then endorsed Milei for Sunday’s run-off).

    But no mea culpa in 2024 for his 2023 predictions of disaster.

  28. Well, I don’t know. Most of the criticisms I’ve read make sense if you assume Trump is using tariffs in a traditional manner, but I don’t think he is doing that. For one thing the sudden imposition of tariffs on so many countries is not normal. Going into negotiations immediately is also not normal. AFAICT, Trump is doing two things, making an opening bid in negotiations, and pushing down the interest on US ten year bonds. We have about $9T in debt coming due this year that will need to be refinanced, and government bonds are how we will do that. As for negotiation, I suspect we will see a realignment around the world, how that will end, I have no idea. However, Chinese companies have used underhanded methods to push domestic companies out of business, for instance using false claims of trademark infringement to get them removed from Amazon, and other such tools, so I expect they will end up on the outside. We will see.

  29. This article made a lot of sense to me, but IANAE (economist).
    Which looks like a better thing than being one these days.
    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/04/04/breitbart-business-digest-the-market-finally-realized-trump-meant-it/

    Wall Street Capitulates to Trump’s Tariffs

    It’s hard to say what finally broke Wall Street’s will. Maybe it was the retaliatory 34 percent tariff from Beijing, or the sight of Jerome Powell brushing off the carnage like a man who’d just changed a flat tire. Maybe it was the unmistakable conviction in Donald Trump’s voice when he said, “China played it wrong. They panicked.”

    Or maybe it was the simple realization—years in the making, but somehow still a surprise—that this president is not going to hand back the steering wheel to the Chamber of Commerce.

    Whatever the trigger, Friday felt like capitulation. Not just a selloff or a rout—though it was certainly that, with the Nasdaq down nearly six percent, the Dow off more than 2,200 points, and the S&P 500 hemorrhaging value like a biotech firm with a bad FDA call. No, this was something more specific: a psychological surrender to the idea that tariffs are not merely a negotiating tactic or a transitory flourish. They are, for better or worse, policy. And not just policy, but a pillar of a new economic order in which global capital doesn’t get to write the rules.

    The market, like a poker player who stayed in the hand far too long, seemed to be operating under the assumption that Trump would eventually fold. Surely he would blink. Surely Powell would cut. Surely this was all theater. The curtain will come down, everyone will take their bows, and we can return to life as we knew it.

    Lots and lots of detailed analysis.

    Summers wasn’t alone. Around the globe, officials lined up like mourners at a wake, lamenting the death of what they like to call the “rules-based” global order—by which they meant one that allows every other country in the world to look out for itself first, building enormous trade surpluses that fund their generous social welfare states while here in the U.S. corporations offshore American jobs to maximize shareholder value. The press and Wall Street dutifully repeated their liturgy. CNN warned of a $3 trillion loss in stock market value. JPMorgan raised its odds of a global recession to 60 percent. The talking heads on cable shook their heads and called the whole thing madness.

    And yet, out in the real economy, something strange happened: the data didn’t cooperate.

    The Economy Also Refuses to Panic
    The March jobs report came in hot—228,000 new jobs, a clean beat over the 140,000 expected. Wage growth held steady. Labor force participation ticked up. Not even a tremor of panic in the labor market. Wall Street had been bracing for weakness. What it got was strength.

    Zweig, in his characteristically thoughtful column, noted that over the long arc of history, markets recover. They always do. Which may be true. But the more immediate truth is that markets had been counting on something quite specific: that Trump’s tariffs were temporary, tactical, and reversible.

    That assumption may have died on Friday. What the market saw wasn’t just retaliation or volatility. It saw Trump holding his ground, and Powell refusing to cushion the blow.

    For investors raised on QE, rate cuts, TARP, and central bank forward guidance, this was uncharted territory. They were, for the first time in years, being told: no. No bailouts, no stimulus, no reversal. The old contract—the one that said markets always get what they want—had been voided.

    For many of them, it felt like a betrayal. A violation of the social contract they believed bound elected officials to the will of capital. Losses were supposed to be for other people—for steelworkers in West Virginia, shoemakers in New Hampshire, furniture men in Ohio, the folks making auto parts in Indiana and Michigan, or weaving textiles in South Carolina. The kind of people who, when globalization hollowed out their industries, were told to learn to code. Not the investor class. Not the people who were promised that markets would never be asked to bear the burden of policy.

    Trump, for his part, seemed unfazed. “Now is a great time to get rich,” he said.

    And if you squint past the panic, he may have a point. Tariffs are not designed to protect asset prices. They’re designed to rebuild industry, reassert sovereignty, and tilt the playing field back toward production and labor. And, if other countries are willing to give up their mercantilist practices, tariffs could even bring us to something closer to genuinely free trade.

    While the pain for investors may not be intentional, it probably could not be avoided. The shares of the corporate incumbents, the winners under the rules of the global economy that prevailed for decades, likely had to decline as their crowns are removed and the principalities are overthrown.

    This isn’t about smoothing the path for investors. It’s about building a road to share prosperity that doesn’t lead through Shanghai.

  30. AF, thanks much for that link and the extended quotes.

    The author of that piece appears to be the only adult in the room…or one of the only adults. And his argument is truly coherent and understandable, his writing articulate.

    Amazing stuff…

    (Love what he said about Larry Summers—sheesh—and Jerome Powell!)

  31. As AesopFan quotes: “It’s about building a road to share prosperity that doesn’t lead through Shanghai.”

    Asia crashed today. Nikkei down almost 8%, Shanghai down 7%, and Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -3,000 or 13% which is the tell.

  32. om, hate to tell you that Ukraine just got thrown under the bus because of upcoming events in Asia. See website 1945.

  33. The Other Chuck:

    And what does the Russian war on Ukraine have to do with tariffs? I hate to tell you but I understand the concept of walking and chewing gum, and unlike some, Ukraine (the hate of it or the love of it) isn’t my sole central worldview.

    Some are prognosticating that China will soon invade Taiwan, or that Iran may get some energetic rearrangement of nuclear facilities. Those potentials put Ukraine on the back burner. Domestically, Federal Circuit Court judges deciding that they are a co-equal brach of government is more important than Ukraine. So I don’t mind breaking it to you that the current situation in Russia’s war on Ukraine isn’t my sole priority.

  34. om:
    “…Ukraine…isn’t my sole central worldview.”
    Really? Could have fooled me.

  35. The Other Chuck:

    Could have fooled you? Probablly because I’m not the center of your universe.

    I spend a lot of time reading neo and the comments, but don’t reply about most things.

    Walk and chew gum.

  36. Not sure when the process started, maybe within the last seventy-two hours, but it appears that some dozens of countries are either acting in a way that might favor us, or wanting to talk.
    Yeah. Probably not the conventional use of tariffs.

  37. It was reported by The Telegraph’s (UK) “Ukraine The Latest” podcast that President Trump’s tariff “actions” have caused the price of oil on the international markets to decrease significantly, and that is not a good thing for Russia’s war economy.

    If true, who got run over by that bus mentioned by The Other Chuck?

    Time will tell.

  38. Via Powerlines Headlines list, by Park MacDougald:
    https://thedailyscroll.substack.com/p/april-7-the-trade-war-is-about-china

    It’s certainly possible that the White House’s tariff scheme could turn out poorly—bets tend to come with risk, after all. But there does seem to be a method to the madness. As Henry Gao, a law professor at Singapore Management University, wrote in a Monday X thread (emphasis ours):

    Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:

    1. It’s not about the methodology.

    The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the figure, the stronger the incentive for other countries to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.

    2. It’s not even about the tariffs.

    The real issue isn’t Vietnam’s tariff rates—it’s China’s trans-shipment tactics and its central role in global supply chains.

    The aim is to isolate China and rewrite the rules of global trade. If a country like Vietnam is willing to align with that goal, it doesn’t matter much whether it sets its tariffs for American products at 0%, 5%, or even 9.4% (current rate).

    3. It’s not personal with any country—except one. The tariffs are universal, affecting even places like Heard Island and McDonald Islands, sparking confusion and anger worldwide. But as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained, this blanket approach is designed to block every possible loophole China could exploit. In effect, all countries have become collateral damage in the U.S.-China economic standoff.

    Until the two strike a grand bargain—or the U.S. builds a broad coalition to ring-fence China—the fallout will continue to ripple across the globe.

    In other words, it’s about China, stupid.

    The global trading regime of the past 50 years, which has admittedly made a lot of money for a lot of people, has also enriched China and deindustrialized the United States. As Michael Lind explained in Tablet last month, the United States now relies on China for critical industries such as shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, steel, drones, and defense. As we have seen in Ukraine, America struggles to keep pace with the artillery shell manufacturing capacity of Russia, which has an economy less than 1/14th the size of ours. The United States and its allies are also heavily reliant on advanced Taiwanese semiconductors, which could be seized or blockaded by China in a conflict. Reshoring these industries is a play to bring “good jobs” back to the United States, sure, but it is also a critical national security imperative. Addressing it requires rebalancing American trade, not only with China but also with the rest of the world.

    Trump and his team understand that the United States, as the global consumer of last resort, has a tremendous amount of leverage over the rest of the industrialized world, which depends on selling into U.S. markets. Disrupting the global trading system may cause pain here, but it will hurt the United States’ major trading partners more than it will hurt the United States. The tariffs on allies send a message: We are happy to defend you, and to trade with you on fair terms, but you must choose between China and us. We cannot rely on our defense umbrella while protecting your markets from our goods and helping to enrich China. If you don’t like our offer, you can try to cut a deal with the Chinese, but they couldn’t defend you even if they wanted to, and they will moreover flood your markets with cheap goods and annihilate your domestic industries. So maybe you should consider buying a few more Fords. As the White House Rapid Response X account put it, after Trump threatened an additional 50% China tariff on Monday: “The message is simple, for those who are ready to take a seat at the table and recognize that they will no longer be able to mistreat America, please come and join us.”

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