Ukraine ceasefire: yes, no, maybe so?
The U.S. and Ukraine said Kyiv would accept a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, with Washington pledging to immediately lift a freeze on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.
“Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation,” the U.S. and Ukraine said in a joint statement released by the State Department. “The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace.”
Russian reciprocity is certainly key, one of many.
It strikes me, and not for the first time, that one of the many differences between Trump’s first term and his second is that the Biden administration left a bigger foreign policy mess than the Obama administration had. Post-Obama, much of it could be helped by simply being meaner to Iran and nicer to Israel. But the Biden administration (otherwise known as Obama’s third term) did more damage in terms of active hot wars that the administration’s weakness had encouraged: Ukraine and Gaza/Israel. What’s more, both of those wars present very knotty problems that are not easily solved.
I think that Trump is feeling his way through this; there’s no guidebook. Try A; see what happens. Try B; see what happens. The results depend at least in part on making the proper adjustments.
The cause of the Ukrainian war was Putin not Biden. And if there is a ceasefire or peace without proper guarantees for Ukraine Putin will attack again.
Trump doesn’t care about this, or have a plan beyond putting himself at the centre of media coverage. Once a reality tv star and he has never really moved on. It’s all about the clicks and viewing figures for a man with enough time to spend hours on social media.
Meanwhile the global reputation of the US goes downhill and everyone is sick of the daily round of will he won’t he on tariffs. Mind you Canada seem tougher than he expected and keep winning Trump concessions.
Could this work? I certainly hope so, and I hope it can work without eventually ceding all of Ukraine and parts of Moldova, Romania and Poland, along with all of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, to Russia. This is what Putin wants, and he acts like he believes he can get all of it by flattering Trump sufficiently. I look forward to the moment when Trump pulls some kind of switcheroo and turns the tables on Putin.
Please, God, let it be. Or could it be that Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are really Russian agents?
Since Russia is clearly winning, the latest demonstration of which is the debacle in Kursk, why would Russia agree to allow Ukraine time to rearm and regroup its forces? An agreement for a ceasefire that allows American resupply of armaments and restoration of intelligence makes no sense for Russia. To be attractive, an offer of a temporary cessation of hostilities must offer something that also appeals to Russia. It’s Ukraine that’s slowly being ground down and is welcoming a ‘time out’… not Russia. The Trump administration appears to have not yet fully grasped the “hard realities on the ground”.
F:
Oh, please. Taking note of reality is not being a Russian agent, anymore than Nixon was a Chinese agent (not a great analogy, but I think you get what I mean).
The reality is that this is a very difficult situation in which – well, speaking of cards, Russia holds more of them. Russia needs to be at least partially satisfied before it will agree – or sufficiently frightened of what will happen if it doesn’t agree. Ukraine only agreed because it loses the war if Trump withdraws aid.
I believe the actual war is stalemated and Russia has been weakened in general by fighting it all this time. But they are stronger in the areas of Ukraine they now hold.
So we forced Ukraine to capitulate by coordinating with Russia on their attack against the Ukrainian military in Kursk and against Ukrainian civilians all across Ukraine. So the mass rapes will continue. The mass murders will continue. The mass kidnappings will continue. The torture centers will remain open and the mass graves will continue to be filled.
Ukraine will not get its land back. It will not get its people back. It will not get its children back. Those children will grow up being taught to hate their own country, their own culture, and their own parents. And Russia will rebuild its military and come again for the rest of Ukraine. The rest of Ukraine and Eastern Europe. But Trump (probably) won’t be in office then, so he doesn’t care.
In my 56 years on this earth I’ve never been ashamed of my country before this incident. I am now.
The only guarantee Ukraine needs for a lasting peace is for a legitimate elected President of Ukraine to sign a peace treaty that contains the provisions that Ukraine will never join NATO and will permanently remain a neutral buffer State.
“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.” Vladimir Putin
More brilliance from David Clayton.
I wrote that the Biden administration’s weakness had encouraged both the Ukraine war and the Gaza War. I never wrote that Putin hadn’t started the war; of course he did.
As for the rest, of course there needs to be security guaranties. But nothing but force will actually deter Putin. If he can win Ukraine in the future, he can probably win it now by persevering. Europe needs to be a big part of any security guaranties.
This should answer the question whether Russia is ready to negotiate an end to the war, based on internal issues– economy/manpower/internal discontent, because it appears Russia still has the initiative on the front lines.
A cease fire right now would appear to favor Ukraine more than Russia.
“could it be that Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are really Russian agents?”
Perhaps… in an alternate reality…
”I believe the actual war is stalemated…”
No, it is not stalemated. I’ve explained this before. The Ukrainians are conducting a fighting retreat while they chew up large numbers of Russian tanks and artillery pieces. It’s a classic strategy when dealing with a larger foe. The Ukraine war is no more stalemated than World War II was in 1943 or the American Civil War was in 1863.
”If he can win Ukraine in the future, he can probably win it now by persevering.”
No, he can’t. He doesn’t have near enough tanks and artillery to win now in Ukraine. He needs to rebuild and modernize his military, which this “peace treaty” will allow him to do.
mkent:
How do you propose that Ukraine get those things back? I don’t see a way.
If you’re 56 years old, that means that you were a child during the pullout from Vietnam. So you don’t remember that shame. You were also a child during Carter’s run and his dealings with Iran. So you probably don’t remember that cause for shame either.
But you were around as an adult during Biden’s disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, just to take one recent example. No shame felt then?
mkent:
Oh, so you’ve explained it and therefore your opinion is the correct one, even if it disagrees with so many others?
Fifty years later, we are STILL arguing about whether the South Vietnamese could have continued to repel the North if we hadn’t cut back so much on aid. We’ll never know, but there are plenty of opinions.
You haven’t given the definitive answer to the Ukraine question, despite the fact that you believe you have.
Once a reality tv star and he has never really moved on.
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He’s actually a real estate developer. The reality show was something he happened upon in late middle age. You’ve yet to offer us a perspicacious judgment here.
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You’re own country has ghastly problems. Why not cogitate on them?
Neo – you writing it doesn’t make it true. – however dismissive you are of contradictory views. Putin started the war and it was his idea all along. He will carry on fighting while it suits and will settle, for a while, while Trump caves in to him. Free countries are allowed to join whatever organisation they want. What Ukraine does has nothing to do with Putin. Ditto the Baltic States and the rest.
From the little I know of this proposed truce, there isn’t much that would appeal to Russia. Why would Putin agree to a truce that works so much to Ukraine’s advantage, especially since, from everything I read, the Kursk front is collapsing? The Ukrainians also appear to be in retreat all along the eastern front. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
Sidebar: will those who accuse Russia of mass kidnappings, mass rapes, mass murders, deliberate targeting of civilians and other assorted crimes please provide a source for these claims? As to casualties–it is nigh impossible to get accurate numbers. Each side has reason to lie. My sense is the Ukrainians have been getting the worst of it. But I only trust my sources 80%. I really don’t know.
I do wish someone would tell Trump he’s not on the block anymore. People don’t like being threatened (period), but especially about military matters, by a man who was a draft dodger (I am otherwise enthused by DJT).
David Clayton:
My writing what doesn’t make what true? We are agreed that Putin started the war. Surely you’re not claiming that’s not true.
Or are you claiming that Biden’s weakness – shown in the manner of his Afghanistan withdrawal and shown by Biden’s statement that a “minor incursion” into Ukraine by Russia would be okay – didn’t encourage Putin? Because here’s what Biden said:
By the way, I have made no predictions that Putin will buy what Trump is selling.
Yes the Kursk salient appears to be shrinking but it doesn’t look like Russia is capturing Ukrainian units. Time will tell.
If that’s how it plays it it shows a few things that aren’t to favorable about the mighty Russian Military :
1) Ukraine knocked them off their game in the Donbass after brute force methods succeeded in taking Avdivka last year. They haven’t taken Povrovsk or gotten through Chassiv Yar, or the southern parts of the front. Ukrainians have decimated Russian logistics to the point that they have to use horses and donkeys to get their Infantry to the contact line.
2. Ukraine is taking the drones to Moscow, to Russian refineries, to Russian munition dumps, to Russian airfields, and to their naval facilities in the Bleak (Black) Sea.
3. Ukraine had been targeting senior Russian military officers and eliminating them inside Russia. Commit war crimes and learn what FAFO means.
But Geoffrey is one of the older New Contemptables, ever ready to parrot Russian talking points. God knows why, I don’t.
Will Putin agree to a cease fire? I doubt it, and I assume President Trump doubts it too. What is the next move that the Administration has gamed out? They (President Trump’s team) aren’t clueless bozos like the FJB junta.
This war is more comparable to WW1 than WW2. Both sides have lost the ability to make long , sustained , successful and strategic level offensive operations.
In WW1, the machine gun vs old tactics helped to at least partly create the bloody stalemate.
This time it’s drones , air defense missiles and top attack Anti armor weapons while the anti version of those are either not fully developed or lacking in full application. Right now, ground based air defense systems against manned aircraft have advantages they didn’t have a few decades ago. Top attack AT weapons can be defended against somewhat with anti missile systems mounted on top of tanks. But even the US has not fully deployed these on our armor yet. This is still a developing technology, not fully implemented. The anti version of small drones are out there, but you need vast amounts to cover a large battlefield. And I think the anti drone tech is still playing catch up with small drones.
”If he can win Ukraine in the future, he can probably win it now by persevering.”
BS. The USSR/ RUSSIA paper tiger had been exposed. Can they cause enormous damage, yes, but they ain’t 8 feet tall anymore!
And Trump introduced NATO to the invigorating scent of piss and vinegar!! When Uncle Sugar is not guaranteed to be there anymore, now they’ll have some of their own!!
In WWI (IIRC) a major overarching problem was not necessarily trenches but that absence of reliable robust communications from infantry squad to army level. Thing became chaos immediately. That didn’t change until maybe late in WW2 in the Western Armies and since then electronic warfare, signals intelligemce, has been critical for success, but again again I’m just a geologist.
George O’Har:
Try that thing called the Intertubes, or even those AI things Chat, Grok, etc.
The war against Ukraine has been going on fro over three years but your ignorance of what has been happening appears to be infinite.
Trolling?
@Geoffrey Britain
Bullshit. Ukraine had a legitimately elected President by any stretch of the imagination since Poroshenko came in, and that is notable since even the Kremlin droppped recognition for Yanukovych and acknowledged Poroshenko. As for “never join NATO and will permanently remain a neutral buffer zone”, that would be a violation of Ukraine’s inherent rights as a nation, as were recognized by Russian governments up until 2014. As shown by how none of these conditions were present in 1994.
Moreover, the Kremlin has violated more treaties and agreements than I care to admit. Its trustworthiness is near zero.
Ah yes, trust the former “Chekist” and Stalin simp whose family thrived due to being relatives of the long serving cook of Lenin and Stalin. I cannot imagine why such a person would miss the Soviet Union more than others, or why he would oppress and censor Memorial.
The trenches were not the tactic that was the problem in WW1.
The problem was they were running en mass across open fields. As I understand it , they would shell, then attack, rather than continuing to lay down suppressive artillery fire until the troops were right on top of the enemy….They started using tanks in that war for good reason.
The Ukraine war has trenches and fox holes also. That’s what you have to do. Went thru basic back in 92 and we were still being taught how to dig foxholes. It’s a defense tactic. Still viable. But it’s a defensive thing.
This time it’s drones , air defense missiles and top attack Anti armor weapons
Add artillery and landmines. Oddly, barbed wire has been largely missing. What distinguishes this war is the lack of air power, although I would add that Russia has the advantage there and it shows. If it were the US instead of Ukraine the Russian defensive lines would be completely demolished by air power after the air defenses were taken out, and I think we could have done that.
I expect the next step to push on Russia will be making Europe take sanctions seriously. Despite all the big talk, they are still trading with Russia. In addition to that, we could start supplying Ukraine with more F-16s, missiles, and bombs. And maybe send more Bradleys. I agree that Russia will be more difficult to handle than Ukraine, traditionally they only respect force. But at least there is now a goal to work towards.
Tactics for arty and infantry evolved over the course of WWI. A great resource for the conflict on YouTube is
These are typically one hour lectures by academic historians and lay historians on specific aspects generals, tactics, methods, battles, campaigns. Quite comprehensive. A lot of misconceptions and myths are dealth with.
Ray Van Dune:
I think you misunderstood my point, which was that Russia’s ability to win has been degraded.
Neo, upon review I guess I did misunderstand. Anyway, my point is still that the 8 foot tall Russian is dead as a doornail!
I think this makes Euros more confident that they can contain Russia without falling back on Uncle Sugar, and more likely to physically and mentally prepare to do it!
The only guarantee Ukraine needs for a lasting peace is for a legitimate elected President of Ukraine to sign a peace treaty that contains the provisions that Ukraine will never join NATO and will permanently remain a neutral buffer State.
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What might be beneficial would be if the current political elite in Russia were removed by the actuarial tables. Whether that would ‘guarantee’ anything is a matter of conjecture. (Only three (of 32) members of the federal cabinet are contemporaries of Putin and half are people born after 1970).
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The bulk of the world’s population is found in about 35 countries. About half a dozen have in the last 50 years evinced an interest in forcibly grabbing territory. Putin is deviant.
@om, you are vexing, aren’t you? A specific source. And don’t say ISW. You’re such an obvious expert, I’ll defer to you and ask a simple question. How many Ukrainians have the Russians killed and how many Russians have the Ukrainians killed? Inquiring minds want to know.
Russia has been revealed as a paper tiger in some respects, in others not so much. Right now, by any measure I can find, Ukraine is losing, which is why this truce deal, which is worse than I thought it was, is a non-starter. So Russia’s a bad actor on the world stage? I wouldn’t disagree. But so is the United States (see Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan..). Try getting a handle on your tone.
So as I read several reports this morning from Fox, Daily Mail, and CNN, Russia has rejected the peace proposal. I’m not surprised. I’m not by any means a person who is skilled at human interactions. However, it seemed to me there was nothing in it for Russia to accept what was offered at the first go except for them to look weak in the international circle. And in typical, to me, Russian fashion they answered the question with an overnight bombardment.
Now we’ll see how the pressure builds. France et al have now stated the ball is in Russia’s court. Trump has indicated a more tougher stance and an envoy is headed to Moscow. It’s just the opening scene of probably what will be a long play.
George O’Har:
Do your own F’en homework.
You haven’t been paying attention for three years?
You can fix your own ignorance, or not.
I’m still working, sonny, and I’m not your tutor. Man-up.
@Om. You’re funny. You don’t know the answer. Res ipsa loquitur.
btw: do you have any military experience?
George O’Har now pivots to the “You didn’t answer my question so you don’t know!”
“George, do you beat your wife?”
That’s your game. Evidence of Russian war crimes in the last three years isn’t a deep dark secret or a fabrication.
Do your own F’en homework, it isn’t hard.
Nope, I’m not a veteran, and never claimed to be. But also I’m not ignorant, George.
Are you a human or a Russian bot? Prove it? That old proving a negative George?