Trump and Zelensky: tactics or tantrums, or both?
[NOTE: I’ve published a new post on the subject here]
I’ll start by saying that I really hate the sort of thing that happened today on the Trump/Zelensky front, and I’m tired of the roller coaster of clashing personalities and agendas. My feelings about it are of no special relevance to anyone but me, but they certainly get in the way of my writing about the topic. I’d rather turn away, but I won’t. However, it makes it hard to evaluate and understand – and I don’t think I’m alone in that. As is so often the case, people interpret this according to their previous positions: those who love Trump and hate Zelensky – and that seems to be a common combination on the right – say Yay Trump! Stick it to that little worm! And those who despise Trump and like Zelensky (or who merely despise Trump) say that Trump just showed that he has a temperament unfit for public office and that he’s been Putin’s puppet all along.
As for me, I’m not sure whether this is some sort of tactical jockeying for position that will end up being a tempest in a teapot, sort of like watching a WWE match, or whether it signals an irreparable breakdown in negotiations for peace. And I don’t feel I can trust anyone to say, unless I find an objective observer. I was thinking perhaps of Victor Davis Hanson, but I can’t find anything from him on the topic yet.
So I’ll just go with this commenter at Instapundit for now, who seems to come closest to my initial view of the blowup:
Whoever is advising Zelensky about the US, or Zelensky himself, just doesn’t understand Trump or US opinion. Mistake one was at the campaign event for Harris at the ammo factory. The other was today. He can push on Trump in private, but not in public.
Today Zelensky just needed to say this on camera: “Mr. President, thank you for inviting me here for talks. On behalf of the Ukrainian people, we are most thankful for all the help the US has provided over the years, and we look forward to discussing your ideas for peace.”
Save the rest for in private, and then deflect any reporter questions until the cameras are off.
Yes. Apparently the reason the cameras were rolling is that this was supposed to basically be a photo-op. What started the explosion? It’s hard to know from the coverage so far. Here’s Ace:
The summit got off to a bad start when Trump said of Zelenskyy, “Oh you got all dressed up today.”
Vance also pointed out that Zelenskyy went on a partisan political campaign in America, trying to get Biden and Democrats elected.
Things took a turn when Zelenskyy attempted to embarrass Trump and “re-litigate” his demands for unlimited US funding “in front of the media.” Then Trump and Vance began shutting him down.
Video here. Must watch. It starts out like a normal meeting, but then Zelenskyy starts doing what he always does, making demands on people like he’s Greta Fucking Thunberg.
Trump ultimately tells Zelenskyy that the US is out of Ukraine, one way or the other, so Zelenskyy can either begin negotiating or get ready to “fight it out” against Russia on his own.
How did this go wrong? Let me count the ways, and it’s by no means an exclusive count. Let’s just say that, IMHO, there’s plenty of blame to go around. I would much rather have had a bland photo-op from everyone, and leave the fireworks for backstage, because once huge egos are publicly involved it’s hard to repair the damage.
The following comment, which I also found at Instapundit, is way too optimistic in my opinion. But I really hope I’m wrong and this person is right:
Trump seems to be doing two things here:
1. Knocking down Zelensky’s sense that he can expect additional help from the US just for the asking. I’ve been sympathetic to Zelensky’s position of having to shamelessly ask for huge amounts of resources, just because the leader of a country in Ukraine’s position has to do that for their own defense. However, he has definitely come off as ungrateful. Trump has made it clear that he has no problem cutting Ukraine off if American interests aren’t being served. This will force Zelensky to take a more rational view of the situation than he has had to so far – and at the same time, any additional aid that Trump decides should go to them will be very clearly a gift rather than anything owed to them.
2. He’s putting daylight between the US and Ukrainian governments. This sort of blow-up will be loved by Russian media, and will be widely broadcast to the Russian public. Even if Putin sees it as theater, it will make the average Russian more willing to trust Trump as mediator rather than as a co-belligerent against them.
I guess we’ll see.
ADDENDUM: This is very surprising to me. I didn’t expect Lindsey Graham to defend Trump.
Putin is the only one to benefit. As you rightly point it’s not good to do this in public. Diplomacy happens in private for very good reasons.
Video here shows who was aggressive, loud, rude, angry, and undiplomatic. Zelensky was the calm one.
That’s the 7:39 minute one showing Vance actually starting it. There’s a 10+ minute one of the full exchange, but I don’t have that link now.
Worst case of American Diplomacy that I have ever seen or witnessed…shameful—at best!?
Putin and the Kremlin are cheering…Trump just handed them an even stronger position…
As of 4pm, Zelensky is still scheduled to appear with Bret Bair at 6pm on Fox. I don’t know if that is supposed to be live or not.
Having served a full career as a diplomat, I would count this as a monumental diplomatic failure. On both sides. Although, if I had to award points for undiplomatic behavior, the greatest number of points would go to JD Vance. Trump is a close second. And I supported both of them.
Zelensky’s biggest error was trying to conduct this interview in English. He should have used a translator. It would have given both sides more time to think things through before replying. And the advantage would have gone to Zelensky, who understands enough English that he would have known what the translator was going to say, and perhaps to get some nuance from the translated statement.
Vance would not have benefitted from a translator. What he needed was a muzzle.
Pity. Or maybe not. Hard-line Republicans have been looking for a way to be done with this nasty little war.
My overwhelming concern is what message three people have taken from this: Putin, Xi and whoever is in charge in Iran.
Good point F a translator would slowed the process. I’ve just watched it again. Dreadful. Reaction around the world is largely blaming Trump but Zelensky must have been aware what Trump can be like.
The Russians are delighted Here is Medvedev on Twitter
Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussiaE
The insolent pig finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office. And
@realDonaldTrump
is right: The Kiev regime is “gambling with WWIII.”
I agree with F here. It also occurred to me re: the partisan political event. That is absolutely true, but I think the problem has less to do with that it happened per se so much as there wasn’t another, balancing one. There are a few derpy games out there (including at least one truly repulsive but addictive lefttard “satire” game about oil and politics) that focus on how you tend to want to grease and butter both sides, with at most a bit more to the side that wins. I suspect Trump and Zelenskyy have had bad problems since the Burisma/Shokin affair and the blowup there, and they likely have trouble standing each other on a personal level, but campaigning with both candidates and parties would give the appearance of trying to keep a bipartisan, even keel behind Ukraine regardless of who won. That didn’t happen.
I would still largely fault Trump more here given my issues with the minerals deal and other issues leading up to this as well as the “dressed up” thing, but Zelenskyy made things even worse.
And Vance should not have been there. I was always iffy on him in the campaign but he did a lot to improve my opinion of him. This undid a lot of that.
On the whole frustrating and worrying.
Great comment & points by F. Many points that I never even considered – especially that last point…
I’m find I’m moving (and quite surprised to be, too) in the direction of “. . . not another goddamn dime. Take your beggars act off to the EU, ya putz.”.
Turtler:
It is also my impression that Trump and Zelensky personally dislike each other and that that is spilling over into the Ukraine negotiations in a way that could be tragic. At the moment I am quite angry with Trump and Vance. They should have held it together and dealt with this privately. If Zelensky is a hothead they needn’t be.
@F
Spectacularly well said, and my thoughts were mirrored as well. The translator issue is also important, but would largely not even be thought of by most.
Part of me would be curious if you have considered trying a blow by blow analysis of this farqup and what we can see, grading the different sides and explaining how they scored bad diplomacy points and also if/when they scored good ones.
But still what you posted is already precious. I just wish it were about a more welcome event, unlike this.
Ed: it also occurred to me that Zelenskyy as a native Russophone would be trying to negotiate in what is basically a secondary or even tertiary language for him; he’s gotten used to habitually speaking Ukrainian and has learned English quite well but I can only imagine the kind of issues involved there. Though I do think the key problems here were what was being asked and there were not many “translation errors.”
That this was supposed to be a feel good photo op is all the more dismaying.
I caught this on TV in a store in Columbus, Georgia just as things started to get out of hand. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing and hearing. Not good at all, and I say that as somebody who strongly supports Trump and Vance. Trump is Trump–I could see him getting steamed as Zelenskyy talked. But Vance should have known better than to throw a match on the tinder.
To say that Trump and Zelenskyy personally dislike each other is an understatement. Still, there’s a time and place for “frank and open discussions”, and a photo op in the Oval Office ain’t it. Nobody comes out of this looking good.
Z has been part of the Democrat scam team since Trump’s 1st term. Whenever there’s a pandemic, a shooting, a hurricane, or war, Democrat scam team leaders rush to exploit the situation for political leverage. Especially if it works against Trump.
Rumors of a possible Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelensky on the flight to DC advising him to “stand strong” and “be tough” and “don’t let Trump bully you”.
The days when we could trust the guys in striped pants to negotiate behind closed doors in good faith for America’s best interest, regardless of which party occupies the government, are, I’m afraid, behind us (if ever they existed). Now we have Donny from Queens.
I’ll concede the failure in diplomatic process today, but we don’t know yet of course what the outcome will be. That he does not do things the accepted way, that he is not easy to predict, has been a strength, and a weakness, for Trump.
And of course in this circumstance, Americans do not agree among themselves what the best outcome for America is.
Even though I’ve been quite critical of Trump, in this case I back him 100%, and Vance too. If the negotiations for a peace deal blow up it will prove what the corrupt, sniveling, weasel Zelensky is really after, WW3. He must think that Europe will somehow come to Ukraine’s rescue and force the U.S. to follow. Does he care about the dead bodies piling up in his country? NO! He wants the money and the false prestige that a small man without scruples always desires, no matter the lives lost or the history destroyed.
Hmm, if Dan Crenshaw as well as Lindsay Graham are backing Trump’s approach to Zelenskiy, then I suggest that things are not as they seem, and it might be wise to reserve judgment and await more facts. Just a thought.
Neo seems to not understand that people love a fight of street theater. I don’t know what schools you went to. But in mine, whether elementary or HS or in between, nothing drew rapid onset crowds than any fight. The more passionate or ridiculous, the better!
This was great Street Theater! What do people do on a later Saturday night at the bars? They gather for UFC or whatever else is on tsp…in competitive fisticuffs!
Neo does get it — kind of.
Zilensky acts like Team Trump can be treated just like Mr Potato-head. He even offended American political autonomy by boosting Mr PH’s nominee in the heat of a real campaign to win and rule the country against MAGA and Team Trump.
Hence all the airing of ingratitude now. And Zelensky has fought how many years of war on the US dollar while never facing elections himself? What a freaking AMATEUR hypocrite.
There’s more. I won’t go into the Ukraine corruption and the Democrat Party corruption going on there! Mr Comedian Z is like Trudeau — he’s bin over his heap and deserves what he’s getting good now!
Meanwhile, the Euro’s will act all offended at Trump as if “decorum” trumps all! — never mind the Will of The People revealed by MAGA victory.
If Zilensky is too ridiculous not ask his brother Europeans to tbe His new Sugar Daddy — and if the the EU/NATO folks are too brazen not to volunteer themselves, then where does it put us?
Re-watching The Fight all weekend and next on political talk shows!
And it was glorious. When Neo writes like a a fight naïf, “How did this go wrong? Let me count the ways…” then I must insist on all the many, many ways this airing of grievances went Hella RRRRight!
Also there is this Link:
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1895562922593841557
“I watched the entire press conference with Zelensky. There was 40 minutes of discussion up to the argument. Most people saw at most the last ten minutes. The whole video gives the proper context.”
The rest of Hanania’s comment for those not clicking links:
I read all the comments and agree 100% with TJ.
@Hubert: Agree about this not being a time and place for frank and open discussions. Also, that there’s a personal history between Trump and Zelensky, although it is possible Zelensky doesn’t appreciate how abrasive his politicking in Pennsylvania was to both Trump and Vance. That surprises me — he’s a smart politician. Somehow he thought he could get away with telling Pennsylvanians they should vote for Kamala Harris.
This, BTW, is the classic European take on America: we love your money and your marketplace, but couldn’t you be just a bit more socialist? Less cowboy?
@Turtler: I could not possibly do more precise analysis of what just happened in the Oval Office today, because it turns my stomach every time I see another airing of the dustup. I just cannot watch it. It was quite honestly total enmérdement and the time to demérder what just happened is not now.
Zelensky just proved himself our enemy. Ungrateful beyond imagining. To get J.D. Vance stirred up you must hit all the right buttons. You know what goes on in the mind of Marine who has seen death in a war zone, who’s encountered wounded and mentally damaged for life soldiers, and who has himself suffered the trauma of just “being there”? Needless war after war going back more than a half century, that is what I imagine Vance was thinking as he came face to face with the evil runt that lives off it, that enjoys it.
https://x.com/Dubinsky_pro/status/1895554358458097970
I would be happy if Trump is equally harsh on Putin. Trump wants “peace now”, and making sure Putin can’t take this as a win. How that will work is an open question, but Russia may be vulnerable to having its shadow fleet taken out of action. Putin might also take that as an escalation. That is a vulnerability for China as well, since it would cut their oil supply.
China is also like likely to misread this entirely. Taiwan is not like Ukraine.
What happens next is outside the scope of my Magic 8-ball. Wild outside guess, Putin ignores Trump’s call for Peace Now, and Trump pulls a full reverse on Ukraine. Somewhere there’s a “pox on both your houses” scenario.
What was on display today is just negotiations that have been going on in private being made public. Zelensky doesn’t want the peace deal that is likely to be negotiated, given Ukraine’s weak negotiating position. President Trump is still trying to get Zelensky to agree to accepting the likely terms of a peace deal.
If you listen to the last two minutes, Trump is emphatic “you either make a deal or we’re out” to Zelensky. It’s pretty obvious with what Zelensky repeatedly said during the press conference that the mineral deal wasn’t enough– he wanted security guarantees which the US can’t/won’t give.
President Trump tried to make the point that the very presence of American companies and American workers would be enough deterrence. I assume Zelensky understands this mineral deal with the US is the best position Ukraine is going to be in to get any concessions from Russia. Had he thought it through, lowering the conscription age to 18 would have given the Ukrainians the best negotiating tool they would have (even if they didn’t intend to implement it).
At this point President Trump is still trying to get Zelensky to agree to accepting the likely terms of a peace deal.
It’s really ludicrous to say this benefits Russia/Putin. Russia knows Zelensky/Ukraine’s position on this. The only unknown is to what extent the US will continue to support Ukraine without a mineral deal. Zelensky is trying to prevent any negotiations between Russia and the US, or create the dynamic (based on the conditions that Russia will try and impose on a settlement) where the US will walk away without presenting the terms to Ukraine.
This is a very dangerous tactic by Zelensky. So far it has worked with the Europeans and I suppose Zelensky thinks this will mobilize continued support for Ukraine by the American people that will force the Trump administration to continue military aid.
I don’t know what level of support Ukraine has among the American people, but I can’t imagine a majority of Americans what to continue supporting Ukraine to the tune of between $60 billion and $100 billion a year (depending on which number you choose to accept for the aid up to this point).
Zelensky has said if the US stops funding, Ukraine will continue fighting in insurgent campaign against Russia. They will never accept ceding territory Russia occupies to Russia.
Secretary of State Rubio in an interview with Brian Kilmeade said we don’t know yet whether Russia wants to end the war.
My advice to Trump– you can’t win them all.
Zelensky is being very poorly advised about US politics.
He never should have gone on the campaign trail for Harris in Pennsylvania.
If J D Vance used this as a way to make points about the FJB junta then it seems that J D Vance showed a monumental absence of judgement.
The FJB junta is a dead horse and there bigger things to deal with in the present.
Should J D Vance be allowed at the adult’s table?
I knew there would be trouble when Zelensky brought out the photos of Ukrainian prisoners. He wanted to use these pictures as emotional blackmail and conduct negotiations on security guarantees in public. This was supposed to be a relatively short photo-op with short statements not a negotiation on future security guarantees.
There is very little actual support for Zelensky in this country. The only real support comes from the defeated Nikki Haley neocon wing of the GOP. The Democrats couldn’t care less what happens to Ukraine and only appear to support Ukraine because it is a stick to beat Trump with. Lindsay Graham’s reaction shows you how badly Zelensky has miscalculated. His behavior was the perfect example of what not to do to get the support of a country that you desperately need.
J*F*M
Putin should never have invaded Ukraine.
President Trump supplied Ukraine with lethal arms and ordnance to fight Russia’s Little Green Men after Putin escalated things in 2014 after Saint Yanulovitch skedaddled.
Ukraine is still under attack by Russia. Hard cold facts. Ukraine lives with them.
Gregory Harper, has Karnac the Omnipotent been giving you the straight poop?
‘N just like that—Lindsey Olin Graham is welcomed back into the fold…
@F
Quite understandable. It was stomach churning for me to see, even with the fuller interview. For a diplomat I can only imagine how badly this went. Take care.
Agreed. This is also why while I think Zelenskyy could be seen as being on the campaign trail with candidates, it had to be for both parties or none. Or at a minimum “just” with the side that won. That was one of the worst possible moves he picked.
F – Is Zelensky a smart politician?
One could argue that a smart politician doesn’t allow himself to be used as a politicized prop by one faction of your biggest patron.
One could easily argue that a smart politician doesn’t turn a photo op in the capital of your largest patron into a televised verbal brawl with the leader of your vital ally.
I don’t think Trump, or especially Vance, covered themselves in glory today, but Zelensky’s behavior is incomprehensible. He did damage to his country today.
I’ve published a new post on the subject here
Bauxite:
I agree. My new post goes into that quite a bit.
I wonder if we’re all being trolled? With Trump anything can happen. The reason I think there is at least a chance of this is that J.D. Vance behaved in a way that is totally uncharacteristic for him. Almost like it was staged? He was baited by the professional MSM trolls for 7 months and kept his composure admirably. They couldn’t rattle him. The next question is to what end? The last question is: Was Zelensky in on the act? Before you dismiss this entirely, please remember we’ve never seen anything like Trump before. We’re used to the Bushes, Mitt Romney, et al who never had the imagination to even dream of something like this. Please give it some thought.
chazzand:
That has also occurred to me, absolutely. That’s why I asked the question in the title: tactics or tantrums? But I don’t see to what purpose. I don’t think it’s what happened, but I agree with you that it cannot be ruled out.
It reminded me a bit of those encounters prior to wrestling or boxing matches, where both parties talk trash for the cameras. I understand it in that context, but what would be the purpose in this one?
Brian E gets to the bottom line.
“If you listen to the last two minutes, Trump is emphatic “you either make a deal or we’re out” to Zelensky.”
Zelensky is now a “dead man walking” as in arguing in the Oval Office before the cameras, he’s “burned his bridges”. The Ukrainian Ambassador’s reaction in lowering her head, covering her eyes and subtlety shaking her head back and forth as Zelensky argued confirmed her assessment of the meeting as disastrous.
The US will now start to implement a process of pulling out all US support from Ukraine. Just the cutting off of Starlink will hamstring Ukraine’s ability to coordinate its military strategies.
There can be no ceasefire much less a peace treaty without Ukraine’s agreement. If none, in the late spring, Russia will move to seize control of the lands up to the Dnieper River and in the south, seize control all the way to Odessa. Ukraine will become a landlocked rump State. There’s also an excellent chance that if the UK and France are so foolish as to send ‘peacekeeper’ troops into Ukraine, when Russia attacks them and the US refuses to see it as an Article V violation, NATO will collapse. That would accelerate the coming collapse of the EU as well.
Some lyrics from the song “The Gambler” apply;
“If you’re gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep”
I agree with Neo.