The art of the Ukraine minerals deal
President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are set to sign a landmark mineral deal Friday that represents a breakthrough in their relationship, but leaves the work of hashing out the financial details for a later date.
“This is in some ways an agreement to make an agreement,” said Doug Klain, policy analyst at Razom for Ukraine. …
Unlike an earlier iteration of the deal, the newest version, approved by the Ukrainian Cabinet on Wednesday, establishes a fund with joint U.S.-Ukraine ownership instead of 100% U.S. ownership.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Wednesday Ukraine would be funneling half of its revenues from future oil, gas and mineral projects into the fund, with some of that money being reinvested for more development. The deal would exclude existing natural resources projects. …
The U.S. initially demanded Ukraine offer $500 billion worth of its rare earths and other minerals as back payment for about $185 billion in aid. The latest versions of the deal do not include a concrete figure for how much of the mineral revenues the U.S. would receive or the size of the stake the U.S. would hold in the fund.
At a Wednesday news conference, Zelenskyy still said his country would not be repaying the U.S. for any of the aid that has already been allocated. …
“Perhaps U.S. companies will be contracted to do all the work of extraction, and could make big profits that way; perhaps the U.S. government would award itself an annual sum from the fund; or perhaps there would be a stipulation that U.S. companies could purchase the minerals at discounted rates,” explained Peter Harris, a political science professor at Colorado State and fellow at restraint-minded group Defense Priorities.
But rare earth mining is a long and arduous process.
Unspecified so far is just what security the US will put up to defend its interests, but Trump says it won’t be troops. He keeps saying it’s mostly Europe’s responsibility and that European nations – Ukraine’s much closer neightbors – must step up to the plate.
One thing that concerns me – and no doubt it concerns Zelensky and many others – is the lability of US foreign policy ever since Obama and perhaps ever since George W. Bush. Back and forth, back and forth we’ve gone – with a pendulum that seems to swing more widely than before, for the most part.
Will this deal really go through? I think it will. Can I say what the ultimate terms will be? Absolutely not. But I do think – as I’ve indicated before – that Trump has something in mind for Ukraine that represents a middle ground: the giving up of some territory, a promise (and not an empty one, I hope) of future security, and some economic benefit for the US and ultimately, Ukraine. If he could accomplish all that it would be deal-making wizardry – far from perfection but better than any other result I could realistically foresee in this war.
Should’ve been running a Trump
Flip-flopU-turn Tally…Trump makes shock U-turn on calling Zelensky a dictator: ‘Did I say that?’
Er, yes you did Mr. President, sometimes after you had said you would end the War in Ukraine in “24 hours”. Maybe it should be a Trump U-turn Tally instead of Flip-flop? Yes, I’ll change it now…
OK, maybe the terms are interchangeable…!?!
Looks like the REPs Lapdog Media is gonna let him get away with it tho…at this rate, REPs Lapdog Media is gonna be less reliable than the dying DEMs Lapdog Media was…
From a Grok response
Sounds like a fair amount of infrastructure and equipment will need to be invested in and installed. Doubtless this will be on the order of tens of billions of dollars and many years to develop.
There are already reports that Zelensky may not come to DC. We know that Zelensky and much of the European leadership is doing everything possible to sabotage any negotiations between the US and Russia.
At some point Trump needs to recognize the old adage– you can lead a horse to water… Ukraine (at least a significant portion of the population/leadership) don’t want peace on the terms Russia will likely dictate. The idea that Russia may gain an advantage is too much for them to rationalize. Trump needs to recognize he did everything he could, accept reality and move on.
What is baffling to me is Ukraine’s insistence they can carry on the war if the US stops funding it. Europe is making noises of a $700 billion long term committment to increasing their own security– and some of that may be earmarked for Ukraine and it’s possible that Ukraine could continue the war with $15-20 billion for military hardware (though that would probably mean forgoing some of the more expensive weapons systems), but Ukraine needs $30-40 billion a year to fund it’s government separate from the military needs.
Is Ukraine’s calculus that they can cajole/bully the US into continue funding the war, let alone any rebuilding/security after the war is over?
Is part of Trump’s reasoning that once we have a stake in Ukraine, we can force a audit of where the money we sent went? I think we need to write off the money we’ve already sent and get as far away from that mess as we can.
Zelensky has made it clear, even if we stop funding, and Europe can’t make up the difference, the war will just turn into an insurgent/terrorist model. I’m sure Russia is aware of that possibility and one of the reasons whey they might not want to control any of Ukraine west of the Dnipro River.
Here is an interview with a Ukrainian mp, who is cast as an opponent of Zelensky, with the headline “We need a deal with Russia”, but he makes it clear Ukraine will never accept that any territory ceded to Russia is not still Ukrainian and Ukraine will get it back some day. (fast forward to about the 4:00 mark)
Ukrainian MP: We need a deal with Russia | The Daily T
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxRaM48UoqM
Here is a recent interview between Secretary of State Rubio and Brian Kilmeade about the efforts to push an end to the Ukraine-Russia War.
Rubio makes clear that Zelensky has been very involved in discussions with American officials.
He also states clearly we don’t know if Russia actually wants to end the war.
Kilmeade: WHAT MAKES YOU BELIEVE THE RUSSIANS SINCERELY WANT THIS WAR TO END?
Rubio: I DON’T KNOW. I DON’T KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT.
Kilmeade: WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Rubio: I THINK WE ARE GOING TO TEST IT. WE TOLD THEM DO YOU WANT TO END THE WAR OR CONTINUE? IF YOU WANT TO END THE WAR WE CAN TALK ABOUT WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO END IT FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE. IF YOU WANT TO CONTINUE ON THE WAR TELL US NOW. THEY AGREED TO A FOLLOW-UP WHERE WE ARE GOING TO SEND TEAMS OF DIPLOMATS TO MEET WITH THEIRS TO TALK ABOUT WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO END THE WAR.
Before we get to excited one way or the other, we might wait to see what terms, if any, Russia will demand. We can make the greatest deal ever, but if Ukraine says no, the war goes on in some form.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy to sign mineral deal during Trump White House visit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrnTp1Pkl-I
Brian E
Thank Goodness—at least someone has America’s present ‘n future Foreign Security ‘n Interests at heart!!! I am beginning to think that the rumors of Trump desperately wanting a Nobel Peace Prize might be true, and it seems like he would pay any price for one!?
According to Trump’s own Admin., the US has only funded about $67-Billion of military aid, and not even a TOTAL of $100-Billion yet. If I recall correctly, the EU, England, and NATO have funded a tad more than that—as they should, and even more.
Ukraine is already into year 4 of the Russian reinvasion and it’s “baffling to me” that you refuse to recognize that. Ukraine has even *INVADED* Russia, and the Russians can’t toss them out—even with the help of North Korean troops.
Sure, the removal of US aid to Ukraine would hurt, but how much pain would you be willing to take in order to stop a violent gang invading your home? After you called the police for help, they told you to stop harassing & provoking that gang…
Karmi, the amount depends on how you’ve depreciated existing stocks of material.
If the Biden administration valued a Humvee at $100, for example, and the replacement, the JLTV, costs $200,000 what is the proper dollar figure to use?
Assuming we’ve given most/all the existing humvee to Ukraine, going forward the cost of military aid will go up. That is true for many weapon’s systems where we may have had an existing stock of an older weapon that has been replaced by an updated more expensive weapon.
One think Ukraine can’t replace is soldiers. And by every account they are running out of them, at least in sufficient numbers (or continue to refuse to draft 18-25 year-olds) which will be a problem going forward.
By the way, your numbers are off.
It’s silly to separate military and economic aid. Money is fungible, don’tcha know, and any money given to fund the government is money freed up to buy more military hardware and pay the salaries of soldiers.
I suggest you watch this interview with a Ukrainian MP.
Ukrainian MP: We need a deal with Russia | The Daily T
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxRaM48UoqM
No surprise that Brian E can’t understand a Ukrainian point of view or that they could have a point of view regarding Russia. Information warfare and narrative shaping continues.
So Zelinnski continues to be the problem, Brian E? Not Russia?
What about Yanukovitch? And does Mother Russia have an infinite number of martyrs for Vlad’s vanity (war on Ukraine)?
om, I suppose you haven’t heard we need to cut $2 trillion from our current budget.
We are close to broke.
Europe is going to have to pick up the slack. We need to get our house in order before continuing to fund Ukraine to the tune of $60-100 billion a year.
By the way, the EU’s debt/GDP ratio isn’t anything close to ours (meaning lower).
War is terrible, Ukrainians and Russians dying. Here I disagree with Trump, the US and NATO should be sending more military supplies to Ukraine. Including emptying the desert storage of WW II jeeps and all old machines that work. Send them to Ukraine if they work, otherwise scrap them.
And build more ammo creating plants to make more shells and bullets. And Support Poland & other Central European countries in making weapons like tanks, but especially drones.
Brain E:
When an emboldened Russia takes the next step into Europe how much will that cost?
Isolationists are penny wise and kiloton foolish.
As ever.
Have you heard of a thing called history?
Brain E:
Ever heard of a thing called entitlements?
That’s where the money goes for the most part.
And of course who needs national defense or the nuclear umbrella? They cost money!
Come on man, what about Yanukovitch?
I believe Trump is role modeling long-term “skin in the game.” For the feckless Euro’s, of course. They need to learn to do so, too. Their neighborhoods need them engaged like this.