The most information you’ll get about the hostage deal at this point …
… can be found in this video, IMHO. Highly recommended:
Israel isn’t just negotiating with terrorists for hostages. It is negotiating with a terrorist-controlled neighbor that isn’t exactly a country but wants to be one and has the backing of the majority of the countries in the world. Not only that, but Israel has at its northern boundary another terrorist-controlled country, and is surrounded by other countries (Syria, for example) who want to destroy it. Even its sort-of friends in the area – Egypt, for example – help out the terrorists from time to time.
This is an extremely special and in fact unique situation. What’s more, Israel itself is small in both area and population, and much of its population is composed of people who are literally related to each other. It was never an option, as far as Israel was concerned, to leave the hostages there and count them as already dead. You may coldly and dispassionately decide that this is a stupid way for Israel to look at it, but as the speaker in the video points out, it can be argued that that is not the case. My point of view, which I’ve stated before, is that part of the reason that Hamas and others take hostages is not just to get their terrorists back (although that is certainly one of the reasons), it is to torture Israelis, both the captive ones and their families and friends and everyone else who lives in Israel or cares about Israelis. You might say that, to terrorists, taking Israelis hostage is intrinsically satisfying and rewarding, whether they get terrorists out of prison in exchange or not.
As I’ve also written before, this war is a marathon rather than a sprint. I don’t know how Israel will ultimately change things for the better, but in the larger picture, the prisoners released in this exchange do not change that long-term strategy, whatever it may be.
I’m not very “up” on this deal, but I do have something to say/write:
Trump very publicly and perhaps ostentatiously promised a deal — before the Trump-47 administration was even to begin.
As a consequence, I am gingerly suggesting (in the form of a question) that Trump got the deal he promised, but at what price? Could he have gotten a better deal had he not imposed the “before I’m inaugurated”* constraint? Did he skimp on dotting “I”s and crossing “T”s, or (I seriously hope not) worse, in order to brag about getting the deal?
I don’t know the answer(s) to these questions, but I’d feel a lot better if that “before I’m inaugurated” constraint weren’t staring me in the face.
* I don’t have an exact quote in front of me, but I am sure that the gist is correct.
M J R:
I also have reservations about the effect of Trump setting that deadline, and I wonder if the Reagan precedent led him to say it when a different approach might have been better.
Then again, I believe that his actual focus in setting that deadline was the American hostages. His message was “as president I will not tolerate taking American hostages. Do not take any on my watch or you will be extremely sorry.” And he figures he will help Israel after that, for the rest of his term.
The hostages and Hamas are a sideshow. The real issue is Iran and their nuclear weapons development program and their funding and arming of proxies around Israel. Will the United States give Israel a green light and help to take out the nuclear program? Will the United States reimpose sanctions on Iran to stop them from selling oil? If Israel is able to get these from the United States, then any losses in the hostage deal are unimportant.
M J R, neo, and Bob Wilson:
I don’t agree with a lot of what neo said in this post—almost seems as she is making excuses for Israel.
Israel has dealt with these hostage situations since at least 1972 – so they are already well into a ‘marathon’. Repeating the same ‘negotiating with terrorists for hostages’ over and over again and again sounds more akin to a definition of insanity:
Israel is not insane, but the Palestinians seem to have ‘Their Number’. Long past time that Israel fixes this weakness—before it is too late for them to fix. Israelis need a new weapon against the Palestinians—
one that can kill 10’s of thousands instantly and doesn’t kill millions in the aftermath. Yes, maybe that weapon kills a hundred hostages, but it also killed at least 9,900 Palestinians (not including stray reporters and UN members). Don’t dally with the next use of the weapon—say you want the hostages back and then use the weapon again. Don’t even give the appearance of it being a negotiation…use the weapon without dally over and over until the hostages are returned or all dead.Anyway, we need to remember that Trump forced or convinced the Israelis this time. Trump is on the Trump Tally list for this—just waiting to see if he is going to help Israel with Iran, and am not speaking of more weak sanctions again.
Great point by Bob Wilson @ 5:25…
According to Fox News:
So there’s that anyway.
@Karmi:Israel has dealt with these hostage situations since at least 1972 – so they are already well into a ‘marathon’. Repeating the same ‘negotiating with terrorists for hostages’ over and over again and again sounds more akin to a definition of insanity.
I would agree with you, if I had any confidence that I was getting anything like an accurate summary of all the relevant facts. It’s all filtered through our legacy media, which has been getting its narratives from government officials now for at least sixteen years, and has been blatantly gaslighting us for at least the last eight.
I’ve traveled enough outside the US to know that foreign media shows a funhouse mirror version of the US I know, and they are not trying to lie to ME, but to their own people. I do not believe our own media can be trusted, which does try to lie to me, to not deceive us about Israel, they’ve been caught too many times. I’ve known enough foreigners to know that they don’t recognize what they see about their own countries in our media.
Israelis live there, and they know way more about it than we do. I think a little humility about our transatlantic ignorance is more suitable than an assumption that they just don’t know what they’re dealing with, or are too stupid to catch on that Hamas is just going to try again.
Niketas:
Once again, I agree with you.
I also think the video makes a case for why Israel continues to negotiate for hostages. Israelis are far from stupid. And I think that they are now more aware than ever of the pernicious, homicidal, and sadistic nature of the people with whom they are dealing when they negotiate.
Mike Plaiss:
I certainly don’t have any inside info, but I strongly suspect that Trump assured Netanyahu of plenty of things. I think the order of it is: American hostages first, then as many other hostages as possible, and then if things don’t go well and Hamas misbehaves (almost a given) no holds barred.
Well, that’s the thing. I desperately want to trust Trump in these matters, and I’m trying. But he’s such a wild card, and seemingly so ego driven, that I just don’t yet, despite seeing him as president for four years. The man is an enigma.
By the way, your post, your thoughts accompanying the video, are just great.