Hostage deal announced
The main elements of a hostage deal seem to be in place. You can read about them here, but they’re essentially what I wrote about yesterday in this post. A few details remain to be ironed out, and Netanyahu’s cabinet has to approve.
I see this deal as a sort of iceberg, with the part we can see being the least of it. I’ve read a great deal of commentary about it already, and most is either merely descriptive or strongly negative. The negative opinions can be summarized as “Trump betrayed Israel.” But if that’s the case, it would represent a 180-degree shift from his previous position.
Is that possible? Yes; we don’t need a reminder that Trump is a loose cannon. Is it likely? I don’t think so. It’s more likely that Netanyahu has always known a deal is inevitable and necessary and he trusts Trump more than he ever trusted Biden – and Hamas fears Trump more than they ever feared Biden.
What did Trump promise Netanyahu in return? Help with Iran? Gloves off with Hamas after the hostage pressure is eliminated? Unequivocal support in places like the UN? I don’t know, but I hope it was something and it makes sense that it was something. It also makes sense that it’s a something we’re not going to hear about until it bears fruit in action.
How many hostages are alive? My guess is thirty or forty.
…if the hostages are even still alive. Furthermore, if the exchange is in anyway unequal, as in an equal number of living hostages to terrorists, then it is a bad deal.
There was never any chance that it would be equal.
The government of Israel is not unaware that there will be more dead Israelis by agreeing to another fake ceasefire with Hamas. They know this, and are taking the deal anyway (apparently), either because they’re getting something better out of it than dead Israelis or avoiding something worse, and we are never going to find out, I think, what that thing is or why Israel is being subjected to the possibility of it at American hands.
I have to assume that Israel is not governed by idiots, traitors or antisemites and that they simply know something that’s not making it into the news.
Yeah, I’ve already seen more than enough of these talks. This is Israel’s choice – they screwed up when they decided to negotiate with terrorists—whenever that mistake was first made. Mine would be kill all Gazans that remain there after giving them a chance to leave for Lebanon – and reclaim Gaza as a war prize.
Israel needs to start taking buffers – like the biggest country on earth does and claims to need, i.e., Russia, so they should also claim everything south of the Awali River. Then…tell the West Bank Muslims to accept Israel before all the Nations at the UN—bend the knee or head for Lebanon.
I hope so. Anyway, I suspect Israel has more on its mind than Gaza & the West Bank…so they need to do what is best for them.
Saw something interesting at Power Line: “The Unbeatable Hamas Hydra?“:
To which John Hinderaker replies:
Great point – these animals are teaching their children to hate Israel from birth…hold them up in cheering mobs with that child holding and/or firing an AK-47. Any male child above 14-15 would’ve already been wanting to be in Hamas.
This is a direct result of not clearing out the Oslo quislings at the start of the war.
Bibi let them continue and the military has been dithering ever since.
The incredible morale demonstrated by the reservists has been squandered… many low to mid level field commanders are vocally frustrated with higher-ups who, after decades of Oslo indoctrination, cannot bring themselves to take and hold territory in Gaza.
The pressure for a hostage deal came from the same clueless, self-absorbed elitist segment of society as these Oslo losers. A coalition of fantasist flower children and hard-core, cynical Leftists using the issue to stymie the center-left government.
I’m guessing the hidden part is what Isreal is allowed to do when Hamas inevitably breaks the cease fire. It won’t be Biden handcuffing him, it will be Trump’s call instead.
Probably so
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1xfntrpkl#autoplay
That bibi was able to do as much in this time with the opposition of gallant and co, with the un the foreign office our own foggy bottom
Consider if they are happy
https://www.ynetnews.com/category/3083
Should we be
Sounds not nearly as bad as the shalit deal but we know what that led to october 7th
Niketas:
Agreed.
So Israeli media are reporting that Trump’s Mideast envoy made a deal with Hamas in Qatar, flew to Israel, forced Netanyahu to meet with him on the Sabboth against his wishes, and then forced Netanyahu to accept a deal that he had been rejecting for months.
I guess when Trump said “There will be hell to pay…” if there’s no hostage deal before his inauguration he was referring to Israel and not Hamas as we all assumed.
I wonder how many people cheering on this deal because they heard it from Trump first would be screaming bloody murder if they heard this very same deal from Biden or Blinken first. I’m betting quite a few.
Sigh. I expected Trump to sell out Ukraine. I didn’t see this sellout coming.
mkent, that does not sound like Trump. More like Biden.
Netanyahu is done, will be out of power shortly.
Hamas will come back, and it will have to be done again. When, no one knows, but it will happen. At least for now, Iran has been slowed, but not stopped.
According to Megyn Kelly, 33 hostages will be released in the first round.
Only 23 will be alive.
–Megyn Kelly, “Israel and Hamas Reach Ceasefire Deal to Release Hostages as Trump About to Take Office, with VDH”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hgPUNkHirw
VDH doesn’t think it’s a good deal.
It’s been said you can win a war or you can end a war but they’re not necessarily the same.
I suppose it could be said that if the Allies had won WW I, there would have been no WW II. WW I was ended, instead.
Problem for Israel is that, outside your border or any perimeter is…outside. Move the border further out and…outside it is…outside.
When your enemy is a non-state actor with at least passive support from some of the folks outside your border, your problem isn’t solved. Your war is not won.
I suspect that Hamas’ efforts to reconstitute itself offers more opportunities for Israeli intel. That would be handy.
One issue is what, if any, restrictions or expectations are imposed on Israel when Hamas or some other party shoots at them. Generally, Israel shooting back is “breaking the ceasefire”.
For the immediate future, anyway, a number–hopefully a substantial number–of people will recall the October 7 atrocity and not accuse Israel of “overreation” when shooting back. And I hope what they do is less “surgical” than in the past.
Israel’s enemies have, as their most potent ammunition, dead Palestinian civilians. That’s why Hamas and other Muslim groups set up among civilians.
Perhaps the currency value of such ammunition is temporarily reduced in memory of Oct 7. As in “whatever it takes”. I hope so.
I would hope Trump’s plan is to go after the source of terrorist funding. It has been reported Iran’s economy is in tatters so applying maximum pressure on Iran might be the best strategy to neuter Hamas and Hezbollah.
Inflation in Iran is reported to be 40% and unemployment is over 30%.
If the CIA working to topple Iran’s mullahs? We don’t seem to have any problem using US funds through NGO’s to topple governments in Hungary and Slovakia.
It’s sad that Israel is giving freedom to so many Hamas terrorists as part of the deal.