Hostage deal rumors
It’s now a week till Trump’s Inauguration Day – which is also Martin Luther King Day, by the way – and once again there are rumors that a hostage deal is nigh.
We’ve heard such rumors before. Are they real this time? Beats me. I think there is a slightly greater chance of it happening now because of Trump’s impending presidency than before the election, but there are still major stumbling blocks. The main one is that Hamas wants Israel to give up way too much. That is my fear as well.
From the article, for what it’s worth:
An Egyptian official, meanwhile, said that there had been good progress overnight but also acknowledged that it would likely take a few more days, although the sides were aiming for a deal before Trump’s January 20 inauguration. A third official also assessed that a deal was possible before Trump enters the White House, and said that although they were not yet wrapped up, the talks were in a good place.
A Hamas official said a number of contentious issues still need to be resolved, including an Israeli commitment to end the war and details about the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The official was not authorized to brief media and spoke anonymously. The Egyptian official confirmed that those issues were still being discussed.
Israel has previously insisted that any ceasefire must not prevent it from continuing the war at a later stage, and the matter has been a key sticking point between the sides. Israel has made the demolition of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities one of its war goals.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because it is.
there are still major stumbling blocks. The main one is that Hamas wants Israel to give up way too much.
That has always worked in the past for Hamas. Remember a thousand for one? I doubt that Israel is willing to give up much this time. I doubt that Israel consents to withdrawing completely from Gaza, as it doesn’t want Hamas to be rearmed. Don’t want to go through the last 15 months another time.
No status quo ante, as Israel doesn’t want a repetition of the last 15 months. Hamas’s violations of previous ceasefires show that the impending ceasefire is temporary.
What does Hamas have to lose by stalling? I think that’s the key question here. I think they have the same mentality regarding troop losses as the Russians do — just keep sending in troops. As long as they have troops — and civilians — the’ll just keep letting them get killed. It offends you, it offends me, it probably offends Israelis. But it doesn’t seem to offend Hamas or the people of Gaza. Or if they are offended, so what? I don’t see this ending well. Or soon.
I’m still optimistic, better than 50-50 anyway, that the hostages will be released at the last minute, just as Iran released its embassy hostages when Reagan was inaugurated.
I think Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah/Youthis have a lot more to lose with Trump’s “HELL TO PAY” hanging over their heads. Trump wasn’t just talking about Gaza, but the whole Middle East.
Hamas is composed of islamic fanatics and criminals. There are no “decent” people among its membership. 90% of the “civilians” in Gaza are ardent Hamas supporters. There is no possibility of entering into any agreement with them that they will not break as soon as it is in their interest to do so. Taqqiya is their fall-back position on everything. Their religion tells them that cheating all who are outside the ummah is admirable and killing them should they fail to capitulate and pay the jizyah is acceptable. Any talk of releasing hostages by Hamas is just more of its taqqiya tactic. Frankly, I suspect that most of the remaining hostages are dead. Only the fools composing the Israeli hard left wing and the idiots who populate the dying “Biden administration” still think hostage release is a possibility. Thank God there is only a week left before the remaining ordure is shoveled out of The White House. I hope we can eventually scrub out the stink it leaves.
Maybe I missed it, but shouldn’t they be discussing surrender terms for Hamas in lieu of their continued dismantlement and destruction?
Some of the parallels with the Reagan Presidency make one think. Even President Carter’s passing just before the inauguration.
This time, instead of the Pope and Thatcher working with the U.S. it looks like Milei and Poilievre may be helping to spread freedom and capitalism.
F on January 13, 2025 at 5:00 pm said:
What does Hamas have to lose by stalling?
They risk whatever Trump might do. Is the leadership still in Qatar?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Biden Admin works to protect their leadership from possible Trump actions.
IF, a big IF, there are any hostages still alive, and they are released before Trump takes the Oath of Office, Biden and the Dems will try to take credit for it.
Israel has made the demolition of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities one of its war goals.”
Why do I have this feeling that the “right hand” of Hamas doesn’t know what the “left hand” of Hamas is doing? Who knows who has the hostages? Who knows how many tunnels still exist? Who’s trustworthy at the table? Who do you hold accountable for the next round of rockets?
If I was Israel…I’d be shooting until there was only one “hand” to talk to…maybe beyond that.
‘TOTAL INCOMPETENCY’: Journalist Bari Weiss argues California wildfires are a ‘manmade disaster’
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2025/01/total-incompetency-journalist-bari.html
The evil within me keeps hinting that if Hamas does not come across and release the hostages, we will get to see what Trump’s “All Hell” consists of. Could be impressive. If they do release them then maybe the IDF will be able to run an offensive without having to tip-toe around about not harming the hostages. This should be interesting.
It occurs to me that Trump’s threat about “HELL TO PAY” is probably one of the things Jen Rubin considers to be unacceptably authoritarian.
Too bad.
@ Another Mike > “If they do release them then maybe the IDF will be able to run an offensive without having to tip-toe around about not harming the hostages.”
This may be one reason Hamas keeps stalling on releasing them.
Considering the damage the IDF has done while tip-toeing through the two-lips (taqiyya style), I’m sure Hamas doesn’t want them stomping around instead.
I heard that Trump threatened Bibi in no uncertain terms to accept a deal. From what I understand, it is a terrible deal. It frees hundreds of terrorists with blood on their hands, in exchange for hostages, *and without specifying live hostages.*
I hope it is not true. I feel sick just thinking about it.
Sarah Hoyt on Instapundit:
I HAVE VERY MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THIS
I agree.
“The Jerusalem Post” January 14, 2025 7:47 AM:
link: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-837407
“Israel has agreed to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 190 who have been serving sentences for over a decade and a half. Hamas will release 34 hostages in that specific exchange.”
My Israeli facebook friends — who run the political spectrum from far left to JDL-niks — all seem to express that exchanging 1000 Hamas prisoners along with a cease fire in exchange for the hostages is the way to go. Period — end of discussion.
I just think that it will encourage this sort of thing again. And again. and again. How many terrorists were released as part of an exchange in the past went on to murder Israelis? I cannot imagine the pain of someone whose family is loved one is being held captive. I do think shutting down the more graphic images of the slaughter helps people forget what happened. I can appreciate how you may not want these horrible images of a family member working their way around the internet. But “out of sight, out of mind” makes a valid point: At this point, it is just the murder of these 1200 people. The normal person can’t imagine the horror. But the images that first came out, we were al aware of what beasts Hamas were.
One of the most conservative of my Israeli facebook friends posted it, and warned that it was NOT up for debate. And shut down anyone who tried to.
See this post from an Israeli woman and the ensuing discussion
https://x.com/CherylWroteIt/status/1879000770814611549
One of the main factors in the Afghanistan debacle was Biden’s desire for a PR opportunity–he wanted to be able to announce that we were totally out in time for the 9/11 anniversary. I hope that Trump isn’t doing something similar with his desire to announce that the hostages are released in time for his inaguration.
How many hostages are actually left?
251 to start
157 have been released
A dozen or so have been killed by Hamas and (4) by the IDF by mistake
So maybe 75?
I agree 100% with Cheryl Wrote It.
I wish I understood what it is Israel is threatened with that is worse than things like Oct 7 happening from time to time. And I wish I understood why Europe and the United States repeatedly threaten Israel with it, every time they look they might be able to destroy the threat.
Lee Also – you need to expand your circle of friends…
Huge amounts of effort and money are being poured into convincing Israeli patriots to:
1. Go along with a hostage deal that will effectively end the war. There will be NO international support for renewed hostilities after a cease-fire of any kind.
2. Bring down the government because the “Ultra” Orthodox are not serving in the army, and are likely to get their excuse from service extended.
You have no idea how much money and effort is being put into this – particularly the effort to set the Religious Zionists who are the military heroes of this war against their “Ultra” Orthodox brethren… the hard-core Left, reduced to an irrelevant minority, is desperate to break up the coalition of religious and traditional-minded Israeli patriots.
Every week the mainstream and right-of-center newspapers I read have numerous full page ads sponsored by dodgy NGOs that have sprung up like mushrooms.
They are wasting their money…. even the most bleeding-heart “Modern Orthodox” who regularly parrot liberal views have cottoned on to the ruse behind these campaigns. And the families of soldiers are dead set against any deal at this point.
We all know that Yihye Sinwar and other masterminds of the October massacre were released in previous hostage deals. Even some of the Lefties who bore the brunt of the October 7 massacre understand, despite their lingering anti-Bibi prejudices, that these campaigns are destructive.
My feeling is that Blinken, Biden, and ‘Bama are making one last effort to stick it to Israel by pressuring for a deal now.
Ben David —
Some of my Israeli friends, I have to say, I wasn’t surprised. They are left of left. For the most part, I stopped following them shortly after October 7. (Once they were blaming it all on Bibi.)
But I was truly shocked over three of them, who I would’ve thought were more in the Cheryl Wrote It camp. I am heartened to learn that there are more Israelis like that than like my Facebook friends — people who don’t trust this “hostage release” deal.
I truly want what is best for Israel. And as an American, sitting safely over here, I don’t think I am in a position to be telling ISRAELIS who bear the brunt of it all what is in their best interest. People living there know better than me.
But I do know that paying the Danegeld pretty much ensures that you’ll never get rid of the Dane.
Anything Blinken is supporting or pushing, I DO NOT TRUST. I think he is all about trying to screw over Israelis — and Jews.
Found this and I wouldn’t be surprised:
https://www.frontpagemag.com/is-the-biden-administration-planning-a-january-surprise/
If we can just get through a little less than a week without this vicious idiots doing their damnedest to screw Israel.
@ Cornflour’s link: the source for the information: “a Palestinian official familiar with the negotiations told the BBC late Monday.”
That’s two anti-Israel middlemen.
I think I’ll wait for a few more days to see what the deal really comprises.
Ben David, I don’t understand the rationale behind not requiring the “ultra” Orthodox to serve in the IDF. My Orthodox, not “ultra,” Israeli cousin served, and his son has been called up from the reserves twice so far in this war.
Moving on from Lee Also’s link to Front Page, some recent stories about the deal.
The source for much of the Front Page post has additional information.
https://www.jns.org/well-developed-biden-admin-anti-israel-january-surprise-planned-at-un-former-us-official-says/
The expected reaction from Bibi’s current allies.
https://www.jns.org/member-of-netanyahus-coalition-urges-trump-to-reject-current-hamas-deal/
Blinken is the mover-and-shaker IMO – and we can’t get rid of him fast enough.
Also, the man is delusional.
https://www.jns.org/israel-undermined-the-pa-blinken-charges-in-speech-on-day-after-plan-for-gaza/
Q.E.D.
Trump was very clever here, the only way Biden’s administration would be remembered well is the release of hostages, now it would be difficult for Biden to claim credit alone for release or shed culpability if it goes wrong.